Top Prospect Pools by Byron Bader

[Bouboumaster]

How is Montreal above Columbus ?

Because they have better prospects?

Top end prospects favor Colombus barely, but Montréal's top 10 is absolutly loaded

Honestly I'm surprised that Montréal ain't above Colombus

 

[Rockomax]

I honestly have no idea about Carolina's prospect pipeline, but them being a competitive team in the NHL and having a prospect pool ranked this high seems like good news for them; most competitive teams are ranked much lower.

 

[DaveG]

I honestly have no idea about Carolina's prospect pipeline, but them being a competitive team in the NHL and having a prospect pool ranked this high seems like good news for them; most competitive teams are ranked much lower.

Canes management tends to take a lot of guys that are under-valued, to varying levels of success, and they trade back a LOT to get as many darts to throw at the board as possible.

They've landed some interesting pieces with that strategy, but we'll see if any of them pan out to be more than that. Nikishin looks like a home run, but the only other ones that have even sniffed the show with that strategy have been Blake and Morrow.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

What's the difference between a top 5 star and a top 5 NHLer?

 

[TLEH]

Its box score watching in graph form. NHLe isn't valuable.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Bader?

 

[Gravity]

Why slightly?

Columbus has 2 franchise C prospects in their system

+ a franchise D-prospect and another high end D-prospect

They have one franchise C prospect, also who's the franchise D prospect? Please don't tell me Jiricek.

FWIW, I hate Bader's model's anyways as he had Slaf at 0% WAR before getting drafted.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Depth mostly. His model says Columbus' top 5 (Fantilli, Lindstrom, Jiricek, Mateychuk and Brindley) ranks slightly ahead of Montreal's (Demidov, Hutson, Reinbacher, Hage and Roy), but Montreal has a lot more depth. That's not really a hot take even if you're ignoring NHLe models.

Fantilli at 49 games played should be considered graduated.Jiricek at 47 games played should be considered graduated.

 

[CanadienShark]

How is Montreal above Columbus ?

Simple. It's better and deeper.

 

[Xirik]

Simple. It's better and deeper.

Its pretty close.

 

[CanadienShark]

Its pretty close.

Just realized they count Fantilli. My comment was based on him no longer being a prospect.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I honestly have no idea about Carolina's prospect pipeline, but them being a competitive team in the NHL and having a prospect pool ranked this high seems like good news for them; most competitive teams are ranked much lower.

It's a good strategy for being a bridesmaid every year. Canes draft well and have a good pool but at some point they need to push the chips in and go for it.

Finally did that a bit and landed Guenztel even though he came relatively cheap. Fumbled that situation though so it be interesting to see what happens with them now.

Point is, is it better to be a perennial competitor or be a short-window contender? Would like to see their front office be more aggressive. Trying to do both is death

 

[majormajor]

I like Byron’s model because I think it does a really good job at predicting NHLers. However, players who play a more defensive game or shutdown defenseman will never grade well in this model.

I don't think it predicts very well.

It's a points model with something like height and pims added in. It's obviously going to fail to value any player that has value outside of scoring. Like a playdriver like Stankoven isn't going to be worth anymore than a 5'8 passenger who scores the same amount of points.

Points are already the dominant stat in the discourse about prospects, we didn't need another model to just show us the same thing. Points equivalencies between leagues is helpful but that should be presented transparently and not as a black box model like this.

 

[Jormungandr]

I strongly disagree with his point of view that Utah’s pool lacks depth. They have a ton of second tier and third tier level prospects that project well. I’d say their depth is better than the top level prospects if you’re not including Cooley and Guenther anymore.

 

[ProfessorFink22]

Not a Minny fan, but they feel criminally underrated here. Maybe they just always get the guys I'm high on, but they feel closer to the top 5 than below Seattle to me.

 

[I am Bettman]

He’s counting Poitras, Lohrei, and Beecher in his list but Bruins are still last? I could understand bottom third ranking if considering those as graduated but how many teams ranked ahead of Boston have produced a top six forward, a top four d, and a legit 4th line matchup C in the last two years? Also Lysell will soon make the NHL, and Jellvik has middle six upside.

 

[MasterMatt25]

They have one franchise C prospect, also who's the franchise D prospect? Please don't tell me Jiricek.

FWIW, I hate Bader's model's anyways as he had Slaf at 0% WAR before getting drafted.

Mateychuk?

 

[wetcoast]

Considering Edmonton is 25 I would sleep better if the Bruins were somewhere closer to there. Bruins prospect pool is not as bad as it was a few years ago, but it seems their reputation of the worst prospect pool has stuck with some of these writers to this day. Bruins have had the worst prospect pool in the league for probably 5 years at least according to these lists despite finding more nhl talent than many other teams like Poitras, Lohrei, Beecher, and others.

I'm not sold on Poitras moving the needle and I do like Lohrei but Beecher looks like a guy who is a fringe NHLer.

All that being said I'm not sure that Edmonton's pool was really better but that changed today with Savoie.

 

[ameselare]

Are there any good recent threads on here breaking down NHLe as a model? Like NHLe ratings for players in recent years, and how they ended up developing? Too many pro-NHLe sites come from the guys who use it, tough to find an unbiased perspective. I tend to disagree with it and don't find it to be a very useful model.

 

[I am Bettman]

I'm not sold on Poitras moving the needle and I do like Lohrei but Beecher looks like a guy who is a fringe NHLer.

All that being said I'm not sure that Edmonton's pool was really better but that changed today with Savoie.

I definitely agree that Savoie moves them up significantly. Poitras moves the needle for me, but only if he can develop an awareness to avoid getting lit up every other game and getting himself injured. Beecher is definitely a 4th line defensive banger and likely won’t be a third liner ever, but he was pretty solid in a defensive role and won lots of faceoffs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Never liked Bader, he only values points, doesn’t care about other factors.

 

[wetcoast]

I definitely agree that Savoie moves them up significantly. Poitras moves the needle for me, but only if he can develop an awareness to avoid getting lit up every other game and getting himself injured. Beecher is definitely a 4th line defensive banger and likely won’t be a third liner ever, but he was pretty solid in a defensive role and won lots of faceoffs.

Fair enough but guys like Beecher simply making the show as a limited 4th liner is the exact opposite of what most people are looking for in prospects.

At the end of the day it's all about potential and alot of it will be unrealized, Buffalo with too many players and not enough spots and Savoie might just blossom for the Oilers, although to be fair he wasn't part of the group being graded.

 

[HighLifeManIsHigh]

Bader is a hack. Literally doesn’t watch anyone play, everything is based solely off of points