How are doing adjusted points, seems flawed.
Is this taking into consideration the seasons were 12 games shorter,
and the goals per game per season are similar in both eras, maybe slightly higher for OV, but not much.
You’re also comparing Hull at 18 vs OV at 20 ….
Adjusted points are done the same way I've always done them, by G%/P%.
These are 6 seasons apiece from Hull and Ovechkin, expressed in how many goals their team scored as a percentage of league average, what percentage of their team's goals they scored, and what percentage of their team goals they accrued a point on:
% LA | G% | P% | | % LA | G% | P% |
0.927 | 0.204 | 0.424 | | 0.927 | 0.226 | 0.461 |
1.028 | 0.230 | 0.387 | | 0.992 | 0.197 | 0.393 |
1.124 | 0.197 | 0.399 | | 1.145 | 0.209 | 0.410 |
1.127 | 0.225 | 0.404 | | 1.150 | 0.219 | 0.384 |
1.029 | 0.208 | 0.354 | | 1.027 | 0.227 | 0.351 |
1.233 | 0.207 | 0.382 | | 1.087 | 0.224 | 0.342 |
One side of this is Ovechkin, the other side Hull, and unless I told you which is which, you wouldn't know unless you worked it out. Their G% is between 20-23%, and their P% is between 35-40%. I could also throw in Maurice Richard, Charlie Conacher, and Brett Hull and you would not be able to distinguish their seasons off the cuff. Scoring does not change, the only difference is games played and whatever league average is. If league average is 210 in a 70 game season, it's 246 in an 82 game season.
To expand on adjusted points, here's some seasons to serve as examples.
Name | Year | Team | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | Team GF | LA GF | % LA | G% | P% |
Bobby Smith | 81-82 | MNS | 80 | 43 | 71 | 114 | 346 | 321 | 1.078 | 0.124 | 0.329 |
Mark Recchi | 03-04 | PHL | 82 | 26 | 49 | 75 | 229 | 211 | 1.085 | 0.114 | 0.328 |
These are two modern seasons, one from the highest scoring year (81-82), the other from the lowest scoring year (03-04). Their P% are nearly identical, their %LA is quite close, the North Stars scored 117 more goals than the Flyers did. If we want to adjust Recchi's season to Smith's year, you take the league average of 321, multiply it by 1.085, and then multiply that result of 348.285 by 0.328 to get 114.24, or the same number of points as Smith.
If you want to think about it a different way, how many games would the Flyers need to play in the 03-04 season to get to a league average of 321? You can take the league average of 321 and divide by 211 to get ~1.52 and multiply that by 82 to get 124.74 games, or 125 rounded up. Recchi's PPG of 0.9146 (75 points in 82 games) in 125 games is 114.33.
Here's three more entries into 'scoring doesn't change':
Name | Year | Team | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | Team GF | LA GF | % LA | G% | P% |
Bill Cook | 28-29 | NYR | 43 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 72 | 64 | 1.125 | 0.208 | 0.319 |
Larry Aurie | 36-37 | DET | 45 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 128 | 118 | 1.085 | 0.180 | 0.328 |
Joe Pavelski | 15-16 | SJS | 82 | 38 | 40 | 78 | 237 | 219 | 1.082 | 0.160 | 0.329 |
The Larry Aurie year is a replica of the Bobby Smith or Mark Recchi year, 0.328 P% for a team about 8% above league average. If we're using an 82 game season, whether we use a default league average of 246 (3.00 goals per game), 248 (the 05-06 league average that I tend to use by default because it's visible in my spreadsheet), or 250 (for round numbers), all of those seasons would end up being between 88-90 points, despite them varying between 0.53 and 1.425 points per game in their original seasons. The Bill Cook season occurred in the lowest scoring year in league history, and yet when you put it into my simple formula, it comes out the same as a 114 point season in the highest scoring year in modern league history. The Pavelski year should help in terms of a modern context - you can look at his time on ice, his power play time, and extrapolate that to the type of usage Cook and Aurie might've had, were their shifts tracked as accurately as Pavelski's shifts were.
I can paste a bunch more examples, covering every decade in NHL history, ranging from 19-20 Frank Nighbor, 27-28 Art Gagne, 34-35 Art Chapman/Herbie Lewis, 43-44 Elmer Lach/Clint Smith, 49-50 Gordie Howe, 52-53 Maurice Richard, 59-60 Gordie Howe/Henri Richard, 64-65 Bobby Hull, 72-73 Marcel Dionne, 77-78 Denis Potvin, 79-80 Blaine Stoughton, 80-81 Peter Stastny, 86-87 Doug Gilmour, 93-94 Brett Hull/Rod Brind'Amour/Eric Lindros, 02-03 Jaromir Jagr/Alex Kovalev, 06-07 Daniel Sedin/Thomas Vanek, 11-12 Marian Hossa, 14-15 Nicklas Backstrom, 18-19 Artemi Panarin/Mikko Rantanen, 21-22 Alexander Ovechkin, 23-24 Brayden Point/Cale Makar. All these seasons convert to basically between 88-90 points in the 248 league average of 05-06, and there's about 150 more seasons I could name in that general area. [There are more modern examples because there's more players in the league, thus more exact matches. With fewer games played in older seasons, a 1 point gap between players extrapolates out to a 3 point gap in a modern year, so the range for older players with similar seasons is more like 85-95 points instead of 88-90.]
Here's one final idea - right now in the season, league average is sitting at 63, with teams having played about 21 games. There are 2 seasons with a similar league average, 1923-24 and 1928-29 are both 64, playing 24 games in 23-24 and 44 games in 28-29. Cy Denneny led with 24 points in 23-24, and Ace Bailey led with 32 points in 28-29, while MacKinnon has 35 points this season, and 24 points is good for 20th in scoring. Similar level of scoring, same amount of points, just a lot more opportunity with 32 teams instead of 10 or 4 teams.
[[One caveat for pre-WW2 players, the limited rosters/massive TOI/limited assist counting renders goal/assist translations that are largely inaccurate, but player P% is in line with post-WW2 expectations. Presumably, those players would adjust to the modern game by scoring less goals as a percentage of their team's goals, but assist on more of them, providing about the same offensive impact.]]