Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[Jerry the great]

While honestly I don't think he deserves the max bonuses... i also don't think most are a huge deal. its only 200k and if he is hitting those bonuses he is still wildly out performing his contract.

I can see why there could be some reluctance from the club here if they think Willander is a fit with Hughes.

Hughes Willander (prime zone starts and offensive situations)
Pettersson Myers (thrown to the wolves with extremely heavy lifting)
EP25 Hronek (neutral deployment)

In this situation Willander hitting multiple A bonuses (all?) is within the realm of possibility and then you're looking at penalties carrying over and having to account for the unearned ones as well. I'm not advocating total rigidity here, but there are a lot of moving pieces (especially if they're spending to the cap) to consider and management at least trying to sign him to a deal that's fair and consistent with those drafted just before him (Dvorsky) or a couple picks after him (Benson) isn't nearly as outrageously stupid as some are making it out to be.

 

[racerjoe]

I can see why there could be some reluctance from the club here if they think Willander is a fit with Hughes.

Hughes Willander (prime zone starts and offensive situations)
Pettersson Myers (thrown to the wolves with extremely heavy lifting)
EP25 Hronek (neutral deployment)

In this situation Willander hitting multiple A bonuses (all?) is within the realm of possibility and then you're looking at penalties carrying over and having to account for the unearned ones as well. I'm not advocating total rigidity here, but there are a lot of moving pieces (especially if they're spending to the cap) to consider and management at least trying to sign him to a deal that's fair and consistent with those drafted just before him (Dvorsky) or a couple picks after him (Benson) isn't nearly as outrageously stupid as some are making it out to be.

Again in the realm of possibilities, but if he does I think its still great value.

I get it could make the cap harder in the future fitting the bonuses but still its a good thing.

I haven't seen anything yet that says what we are offering vs what his side wants. Just that we are 200k off.

 

[Diversification]

This Willander issue is a perfect example of how people on these forums let themselves get spun right out of reality. The amount of criticism is astounding for what is the actual reality. They haven't yet signed a college prospect which wouldn't have helped us in any way this year, and for which they have two more years to do.

The speculation is rampant yet it's ridiculous that some people buy this $200,000 difference bs story. The finger pointing and silly cut downs are just super immature angst from disgruntled fans that couldn't understand the down year. Allvin isn't negotiating in public like some here believe and just lets all the details slip out as if they're totally incompetent or something. For me it's clear they are very carefully planning for the next season and there is far more nuance then they're cheap f#*king idiots that don't understand anything about hockey and how to add up contracts.

There's no harm done so far but let's review: Willander wants to turn pro and has indicated there isn't much more he can progress staying in the NCAA. So the 2 years to finish his degree as a threat rings a bit hollow. But if we see how 1st rounder college free agents normally turn pro, you have to concede that this situation is abnormal. It's not supposed to be a drawn out process. That makes it a man bites dog scenario and potentially concerning.

 

[Jerry the great]

I haven't seen anything yet that says what we are offering vs what his side wants. Just that we are 200k off.

There was a suggestion by Dhaliwall a week or so ago that Vancouver's early offers were "way off" the $785K Dickinson (2024 draftee) got. Who knows what that number actually is or when it was extended.

was it a counteroffer to Diamond saying they want Buium money..... who signed on April 13th and got 50k in 2025 (guessing all of it hittable GP) and the full million in years 2 and 3?

Did they eventually raise the offer to $800K and are now only $200K apart? Or are the Canucks offering $665 and Willander want's Dickinson $$?

 

[Nick Lang]

If I'm Allvin I'm looking at a defence of

Hughes Hronek
M.Petterson Myers
E.Petterson X
(Mancini?)

That's what we've got so far. I wouldn't want to pencil Willander into that line-up as a 3RD and have that bottom pair get ventilated. At that point we'd probably have zero cap space of course and be staring at the same problem 10 games in with a complete shite D like last season. Season f#*ked.

I would much rather sign a veteran player of some sort and bring Willander up if he shows like Petterson, Raty, Karlsson, and Sasson, that he deserves it. Otherwise we have a season to try to do well in next year. I don't know if they're willing to gamble that away on Willander or not. Every move they make giving out money limits our other options so they've got to be sure of the direction they're going first. Thus the hold up and cautious approach.

Maybe Willander is superb, maybe he can't handle it in the beginning.

 

[mouser]

Okay, I'm going to ask @mouser to read the cap stuff that we've been discussing on this page and comment because Mouser is the most knowledgeable cap person that I'm aware of on this board and perhaps can point me to the area of the CBA where this is specified. @F A N I'm open to the possibility that you were right.

- When a team is not using LTIR the 7.5% performance bonus cap overage allowance is fully in effect.

- When a team is using LTIR, to recall a player with Performance Bonuses the team must have available space in the LTIR relief pools to fit the entire AAV of the player’s contract. AAV includes all compensation: salary, signing bonuses and any potential performance bonuses.

- If a team has a player with Performance Bonuses on the roster when LTIR is invoked and that player is later loaned to the AHL then the amount of the Performance Bonuses go into a separate “LTIR performance bonus pool”, which can be used later to fit the Performance Bonuses of any recalled player—it does not have to be the same player that was on the roster when LTIR was invoked.***

- Whether a player with Performance Bonuses was on the opening day roster may not be directly relevant. What matters is if a player with Performance Bonuses was on the roster when LTIR is first invoked—whether that was done on opening day or later in the season.

- A team knowing they’re going invoke LTIR on day 1 will usually try to finagle their biggest Performance Bonus ELC(s) onto the opening day roster—even if those players are immediately loaned to the AHL a day later—to get their performance bonus amounts into the LTIR performance bonus pool. Likewise a team invoking LTIR mid season will also try to temporarily recall players with performance bonuses immediately before doing so if possible.


***The CBA does not contain the full details of how LTIR formulas are implemented. They’re either in some unpublished side agreement between the NHL and PA, or the NHL has unilaterally imposed their formulas and the PA has not grieved. I’ve talked with some very knowledgeable people on the topic and confident my explanation/understanding of how LTIR is currently implemented is accurate.

However I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the next CBA changes the LTIR rules. Very possible we see the new CBA go into effect 2025-26, latest would be 2026-27.

 

[Blue and Green]

- When a team is not using LTIR the 7.5% performance bonus cap overage allowance is fully in effect.

- When a team is using LTIR, to recall a player with Performance Bonuses the team must have available space in the LTIR relief pools to fit the entire AAV of the player’s contract. AAV includes all compensation: salary, signing bonuses and any potential performance bonuses.

- If a team has a player with Performance Bonuses on the roster when LTIR is invoked and that player is later loaned to the AHL then the amount of the Performance Bonuses go into a separate “LTIR performance bonus pool”, which can be used later to fit the Performance Bonuses of any recalled player—it does not have to be the same player that was on the roster when LTIR was invoked.***

- Whether a player with Performance Bonuses was on the opening day roster may not be directly relevant. What matters is if a player with Performance Bonuses was on the roster when LTIR is first invoked—whether that was done on opening day or later in the season.

- A team knowing they’re going invoke LTIR on day 1 will usually try to finagle their biggest Performance Bonus ELC(s) onto the opening day roster—even if those players are immediately loaned to the AHL a day later—to get their performance bonus amounts into the LTIR performance bonus pool. Likewise a team invoking LTIR mid season will also try to temporarily recall players with performance bonuses immediately before doing so if possible.


***The CBA does not contain the full details of how LTIR formulas are implemented. They’re either in some unpublished side agreement between the NHL and PA, or the NHL has unilaterally imposed their formulas and the PA has not grieved. I’ve talked with some very knowledgeable people on the topic and confident my explanation/understanding of how LTIR is currently implemented is accurate.

However I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the next CBA changes the LTIR rules. Very possible we see the new CBA go into effect 2025-26, latest would be 2026-27.

Thank you. Just to clarify that my understanding was the same as yours: if a non-LTIR club has zero available regular cap space, they could nonetheless send down an ELC player making $900,000 in base salary + signing bonuses, and recall a player with the same salary and signing bonuses but higher performance bonuses except in the highly unlikely event that doing so would push them over the 7.5% performance bonus cushion. Is that a fair summation? (This is the point of contention; the Canucks Army article linked in a different post claims otherwise.)

 

[Jerry the great]

You're a fool Diamond!!

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

At the end of the day, it seems stupid to not just offer these incentive bonuses. It's some additional money to a player, and the worst case scenario from a financial POV is that you have an absolute rockstar young D Man on an ELC

Just seems so dumb

 

[VanJack]

At the end of the day, it seems stupid to not just offer these incentive bonuses. It's some additional money to a player, and the worst case scenario from a financial POV is that you have an absolute rockstar young D Man on an ELC

Just seems so dumb

Agreed. What are the chances a rookie blueliner even comes close to cashing in on those bonuses anyway? There's still a chance he'd start his career in the AHL.

But it's just a constant with this cursed 2024-25 season. What could go wrong, has gone wrong. And now the coach is gone and they apparently aren't even able to sign one of their top prospects.

The only consolation is that surely the 2025-26 season can't be any worse than this past one. Can it?

 

[me2]

The only consolation is that surely the 2025-26 season can't be any worse than this past one. Can it?

2025-26 says "hold my beer"

 

[VancouverJagger]

Listening to JR speak today restored my faith a tinnny bit. He sounded somewhat competent basically saying that the team has a structure for their draft picks that they need to stick to. My business owner mind resonated with that - I still think this is gonna get resolved one way or another but dang the org. just has not put up the best face this last year have we? Holy fuk it's been a bit of a shit show......

 

[Wry n Ginger]

The way this story is playing out in the press etc just doesn't make sense.

I think this is more about Willander not wanting to spend time in the AHL than it is about bonus structure.

 

[Nuckles]

The way this story is playing out in the press etc just doesn't make sense.

I think this is more about Willander not wanting to spend time in the AHL than it is about bonus structure.

Rutherford's comments at the press conference today suggests otherwise

(starts at 22:21)

 

[Breakers]

One of the logical things rutherford said

there is a scale for these bonuses
it probably higher than Leks, but not maxed out either.

 

[GranvilleIsland]

Todd Diamond must really need a percentage of these schedule As.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Rutherford's comments at the press conference today suggests otherwise

(starts at 22:21)

Yah, I saw that. I just don't believe it.

I don't see the org getting hung up over a couple of grand or "setting a precedent". I think this is about the org saying he might need to spend a year in the AHL and his camp saying no way. The rest is just distraction for the media and fans.

 

[VanJack]

Listening to Rutherford's presser made me a little more optimistic that something will get done with Wilander.

The Canucks president president put it pretty succinctly. "Wilander and his family have a decision to make. He can earn a couple of million dollars over the next two seasons, or he can go back to BU."

He added that signing any draft pick requires a balance of salary and bonuses, and it all has to fit into an overall signing strategy.

I noted a couple of things from this interview. Firstly, "Wilander and his family have a decision to make".....not the agent. And secondly, if Wilander is projected to earn 'a couple of million bucks' then he isn't likely spending any time in Abbotsford where he'd only earn a fraction of that on an ELC.

So I'm expecting him in training camp in September--even if he has to drag his agent Todd Diamond along, kicking and screaming.

 

[Jerry the great]

Listening to Rutherford's presser made me a little more optimistic that something will get done with Wilander.

The Canucks president president put it pretty succinctly. "Wilander and his family have a decision to make. He can earn a couple of million dollars over the next two seasons, or he can go back to BU."

He added that signing any draft pick requires a balance of salary and bonuses, and it all has to fit into an overall signing strategy.

I noted a couple of things from this interview. Firstly, "Wilander and his family have a decision to make".....not the agent. And secondly, if Wilander is projected to earn 'a couple of million bucks' then he isn't likely spending any time in Abbotsford where he'd only earn a fraction of that on an ELC.

So I'm expecting him in training camp in September--even if he has to drag his agent Todd Diamond along, kicking and screaming.

He supposed to be attending development camp in early July. Plenty of time to get this over the finish line before training camp. Also plenty of time to fire Diamond/Gandler….maybe Patrick Elias can give him some advice on new representation.

 

[me2]

The Canucks president president put it pretty succinctly. "Wilander and his family have a decision to make. He can earn a couple of million dollars over the next two seasons, or he can go back to BU."

This is just JRs old brain atrophied, his frontal lobes are shrinking and as a consequence his filter is failing. What good came off going public with this? Willander's camp know this already. Why create more PR controversy and bad blood?

JR should just shut up and let the thumb screws do their work. Taking this to the media is just feeding the impressions the Canucks are in chaos.

Instead of hiding the dirty laundry, JR is wearing his skidmarked underpants on the outside like he's superman.

 

[VanJack]

This is just JRs old brain atrophied, his frontal lobes are shrinking and as a consequence his filter is failing. What good came off going public with this? Willander's camp know this already. Why create more PR controversy and bad blood?

JR should just shut up and let the thumb screws do their work. Taking this to the media is just feeding the impressions the Canucks are in chaos.

Instead of hiding the dirty laundry, JR is wearing his skidmarked underpants on the outside like he's superman.

I don't think this a shot at the player and his family......it was a brickbat thrown directly at this agent.

Todd Diamond appears to be a guy the Canucks aren't too fond of. He was joined at the hip with with old Benning regime.........but his style just seems to really grind the gears with the current management. Sometimes I think he'd rather float trial balloons with Rick Dhaliwal than engage the Canuck front office.

JR is basically saying that Wilander isn't getting 'great advice'. Nothing wrong with that. The truth hurts.

 

[F A N]

Who/where are these multiple sources? Either you're misinterpreting what they wrote/said, or what they wrote/said is inaccurate.

As I mentioned previously (which @Nick Lang quoted), I got the info from Canucks Army. All About Jersey also has a similar interpretation with regard to Nemec's bonuses:

Nemec was on the New Jersey roster as of Monday night while Bahl was sent down. Why?

As it turned out, it was due to the salary cap. As best explained in the comments to my post about the Monday night roster, thanks to NJMetal15 and dr(d)evil, here is the summary. Simon Nemec is on an entry-level contract with a total salary of $950,000. However, because he is on an ELC, he is eligible for performance bonuses that can add up to $3.25 million if all are met. And if the Devils are cap compliant because of their use of long term injured reserve - which they are due to Jonathan Bernier - then any call up’s cap hit would be the total amount of the contract and not just what their salary would be. Basically, If Nemec was on the initial roster - which he was - then his cap hit for the season would just be based on his total salary of $950,000. If Nemec was not on the initial roster and he is called up, then the Devils have to have the room to include his potential bonuses - which means Nemec’s cap hit becomes $4.2 million (salary plus bonuses).

In other words, Nemec was on Monday’s roster so the Devils can better afford to call him up later in the season. If he was not, the $4.2 million cap hit would make it near impossible for the Devils to call him up.

It is very clearly spelled out in CBA section 50.5 (h) "Accounting for Performance Bonuses" that a club can exceed the daily Averaged Club Salary upper limit by up to 7.5% to account for potential performance bonuses; then, if the seasonal upper limit is exceeded due to paid performance bonuses, any overage is applied as a reduction on the club's upper limit for the following season.

In non-LTIR situations, the only way that swapping in a contract with higher performance bonuses would be prohibited is if it would push the team over that 7.5% performance bonus cushion on top of the upper limit, which is rarely an issue. That's why typically the base salary + signing bonus AAV is shown as the cap hit for ELC players on NHL rosters, rather than being inclusive of potential performance bonuses.

It is when a team is about to enter LTIR that it makes sense to manoeuvre to maximize both the standard cap hit plus the performance bonuses on the roster, because the salary relief pools and the performance bonus relief pools are set on the first day.

Okay, I'm going to ask @mouser to read the cap stuff that we've been discussing on this page and comment because Mouser is the most knowledgeable cap person that I'm aware of on this board and perhaps can point me to the area of the CBA where this is specified. @F A N I'm open to the possibility that you were right.

Did you read 50.9(h)? I think that is the provision that is the basis the difference. There may be a provision somewhere else. Here's what it says:

h) Entry Level Signing, Performance, Roster and Reporting Bonuses.

Subject to Section 50.5(d)(i)(B)(7), if an Entry-Level Player (an "ELS Player") is in the Minor Leagues but
has an NHL SPC which includes an Entry Level Signing Bonus, Performance Bonus, Roster
Bonus, or Reporting Bonus, such Bonuses shall not count toward the Actual and Averaged Club
Salary for such Player's NHL Club, nor shall such Bonus count toward the Players' Share.
However, while such Player is in the NHL, the Entry Level Signing Bonus, Performance Bonus,
Roster Bonus or Reporting Bonus shall count toward the Averaged Club Salary for such Player's
NHL Club, calculated daily. While such Player is in the NHL, the Entry Level Signing Bonus,
Performance Bonus, Roster Bonus or Reporting Bonus (all such Bonuses only to the extent paid)
shall count toward the Actual Club Salary for such Player's NHL Club, calculated daily, and such
Bonuses (only to the extent paid), calculated daily, shall count toward the Players' Share.

 

[Blue and Green]

As I mentioned previously (which @Nick Lang quoted), I got the info from Canucks Army. All About Jersey also has a similar interpretation with regard to Nemec's bonuses:







Did you read 50.9(h)? I think that is the provision that is the basis the difference. There may be a provision somewhere else. Here's what it says:

Again, the relevant distinction is LTIR vs non-LTIR. Straight from your quote of that New Jersey article from 2022: "And if the Devils are cap compliant because of their use of long term injured reserve - which they are due to Jonathan Bernier - then any call up’s cap hit would be the total amount of the contract and not just what their salary would be."

When a team starts to use LTIR, the league-mandated upper cap limit and the 7.5% performance bonus cushion cease being relevant. The club's new limits are set by the roster's cap hit-- which does not include performance bonuses-- and the amount of potential performance bonuses on the first day that the team goes into LTIR. There is a salary relief pool plus a performance bonus relief pool set by that roster, and if the performance bonus relief pool is not enough to capture a call-up's attainable bonuses then there must be enough room in the salary relief pool to account for them. That's why Podkolzin was on the opening day roster in 2023, to maximize the performance bonus relief pool as the team was starting the season on LTIR. That's why, just before placing Hronek on LTIR two months into this past season, they called up Lekkerimaki and McWard. Note: the Canucks didn't have them on the opening day roster because they were not using LTIR to start the season so there was no need to have them on the roster for performance bonus reasons.

When a team is not in LTIR, it can spend to the upper limit plus to the 7.5% performance bonus cushion (calculated daily; there's no ability to accumulate cushion). I cannot find any requirement in the CBA or the 2020 MoU that a player must be on the opening day roster in order to have his performance bonuses contained within that cushion, nor do I find any behaviour from teams that is consistent with that supposition. The only thing that is really said in that CBA section that you quoted is that a player's salary and bonuses don't count toward the team's Averaged Club Salary while he's in the minors.

Interestingly, two days ago there was another local article published claiming the very same thing that the Canucks Army article had claimed several months ago. Why haven’t the Canucks signed Tom Willander yet? I sent a note yesterday to the author, asking him to point me to where, in any official NHL document, it says that a player has to be on the opening day roster to qualify his performance bonuses for the standard 7.5% Performance Bonus Cushion. No response yet.

 

[F A N]

Again, the relevant distinction is LTIR vs non-LTIR. Straight from your quote of that New Jersey article from 2022: "And if the Devils are cap compliant because of their use of long term injured reserve - which they are due to Jonathan Bernier - then any call up’s cap hit would be the total amount of the contract and not just what their salary would be."

Yes there is a distinction but you are missing the point here. Bernier's cap hit was $4.125M. So if the Devils were in LTIR territory then fitting in Nemec's salary + potential bonuses wasn't a problem.

When a team starts to use LTIR, the league-mandated upper cap limit and the 7.5% performance bonus cushion cease being relevant. The club's new limits are set by the roster's cap hit-- which does not include performance bonuses-- and the amount of potential performance bonuses on the first day that the team goes into LTIR. There is a salary relief pool plus a performance bonus relief pool set by that roster, and if the performance bonus relief pool is not enough to capture a call-up's attainable bonuses then there must be enough room in the salary relief pool to account for them. That's why Podkolzin was on the opening day roster in 2023, to maximize the performance bonus relief pool as the team was starting the season on LTIR. That's why, just before placing Hronek on LTIR two months into this past season, they called up Lekkerimaki and McWard. Note: the Canucks didn't have them on the opening day roster because they were not using LTIR to start the season so there was no need to have them on the roster for performance bonus reasons.

When a team is not in LTIR, it can spend to the upper limit plus to the 7.5% performance bonus cushion (calculated daily; there's no ability to accumulate cushion). I cannot find any requirement in the CBA or the 2020 MoU that a player must be on the opening day roster in order to have his performance bonuses contained within that cushion, nor do I find any behaviour from teams that is consistent with that supposition. The only thing that is really said in that CBA section that you quoted is that a player's salary and bonuses don't count toward the team's Averaged Club Salary while he's in the minors.

None of the above addresses the differences/our disagreement between a player on ELC being on the opening day roster vs not as far as accommodating their potential bonuses if they are recalled from the minors. Again, the "reasons" behind Podkolzin being on the opening day roster that year is irrelevant except as an example of the fact that the team didn't need to account for his potential bonuses if he is sent down and recalled from the minors.

Interestingly, two days ago there was another local article published claiming the very same thing that the Canucks Army article had claimed several months ago. Why haven’t the Canucks signed Tom Willander yet? I sent a note yesterday to the author, asking him to point me to where, in any official NHL document, it says that a player has to be on the opening day roster to qualify his performance bonuses for the standard 7.5% Performance Bonus Cushion. No response yet.

Let me know if you have an update.

 

[Blue and Green]

Yes there is a distinction but you are missing the point here. Bernier's cap hit was $4.125M. So if the Devils were in LTIR territory then fitting in Nemec's salary + potential bonuses wasn't a problem.


None of the above addresses the differences/our disagreement between a player on ELC being on the opening day roster vs not as far as accommodating their potential bonuses if they are recalled from the minors. Again, the "reasons" behind Podkolzin being on the opening day roster that year is irrelevant except as an example of the fact that the team didn't need to account for his potential bonuses if he is sent down and recalled from the minors.


Let me know if you have an update.

The total of Nemec's base salary and signing bonus + potential performance bonuses ($4.2M) would've been slightly higher than Bernier's cap hit ($4.125M). Plus, even if New Jersey did a bit of juggling to accommodate that difference, it would've seriously limited their ability to call up other players; that's why they put Nemec on the roster on the first day, to set the performance bonus relief pool as high as possible to prevent performance bonuses from eating into their salary relief pool. Then they sent him down. That's what teams do when they are about to enter LTIR. It is not what teams do when not in LTIR.

Nemec was not on New Jersey's opening day roster for the following season, 2023-24 when they did not begin in LTIR. It would make no sense for the Devils-- who had a strong season in 2022-23, a franchise with genuine aspirations going into 2023-24 and spending toward the cap-- not to have him on the opening day roster if his performance bonuses then wouldn't be eligible for the 7.5% performance bonus cushion. Why wouldn't they keep him up for that one day, to ensure that his subsequent cap hit would be $950,000 rather than $4.2M if/when recalled? It's because there is no such requirement. A couple of hockey writers in the Vancouver area are under an erroneous impression, that's all.