Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[VanJack]

The only explanation that makes any sense is management has committed to trade him for forward help and ownership doesn't want to be on the hook for his signing bonus.

Sadly, I'm coming to this conclusion myself. There's just no logical explanation why his contract hasn't been done.

I mean signing first round draft picks to their first entry level contract is about as basic as it gets. If management can't execute that, then there has to be something deeper.

Seems pretty apparent Wilander, a prospect like maybe Raty, and even their 2025 first rounder might be in play.

If it was a deal with the Wings for the likes of a Dylan Larkin, then I could live with it. But I fear it might be somebody a lot less appealing.

 

[Jerry the great]

The signing bonus portion of his 25/26 NHL comp would be $97,500 (max), and isn't payable until July 1st 2025. Additionally, he's worth more signed than he is unsigned, so if they've decided he's a guy they want to move, signing him now, to a deal with max Schedule A's and then moving him would be the path of least resistance.

 

[Diversification]

The only explanation that makes any sense is management has committed to trade him for forward help and ownership doesn't want to be on the hook for his signing bonus.

And that would be a poor reason not to sign him. Just hemorrhaging trade value to cheap out like that.

 

[F A N]

What you've described matters only if the team starts the season in LTIR. Under normal circumstances, it is only the bonuses that are actually earned that have any cap implications.

No. My understanding is that if the Canucks are in LTIR territory then it doesn't matter as the Canucks can call up a replacement. If the Canucks want to start the season below the cap (like this year) and accumulate cap space throughout the season then we need to accumulate enough cap space to account for Willander's full potential salary (i.e. with all the bonuses he could achieve).

So say Willander doesn't make the opening day roster, D-Petey/Mancini makes it, and the Canucks start the season $100K under the cap. If say Myers is injuried after Game 1, we can't recall Willander because of his bonuses unless somebody is put on LTIR and the Canucks are in LTIR territory. We also can't simply swap Willander for D-Petey/Mancini until we've accumulated enough cap space to account for Willander's bonuses.

That's my understanding of it.

 

[me2]

The only explanation that makes any sense is management has committed to trade him for forward help and ownership doesn't want to be on the hook for his signing bonus.

It is still April, the draft is 2 months away, rookie tournament even further away, etc. It just isn't urgent for either side. OTOH they have a decision on coaching to make right now, planning for the draft, roster strategy.

This will get sorted by signing or trade. It is a low priority right now, probably for both side, with both agreeing to return to talks soon.

I've been critical of Rutherford and Allvin but this is a non issue at present, I'll give them a few months runway.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

amid all the doomsaying and shots fired by agents, i lost track of the realities of the situation. did he end up staying at BU and taking his finals?

 

[lawrence]

amid all the doomsaying and shots fired by agents, i lost track of the realities of the situation. did he end up staying at BU and taking his finals?

He’s in Sweden trying to make team Sweden.

 

[Canucks LB]

A buddy brought this up to me.
He basically said, maybe the hold up is he knows that he will get traded by the canucks this offseason, and does not wanna go to some random team, which is why he might just hold out and choose in a couple years instead.

 

[me2]

A buddy brought this up to me.
He basically said, maybe the hold up is he knows that he will get traded by the canucks this offseason, and does not wanna go to some random team, which is why he might just hold out and choose in a couple years instead.

2 years is a long time and he'll still have to sign an elc at the end of it. It is a lot of risk (blowing a knee, concussions etc) just to taking a big pay cut. I doubt any agent would suggest he chases destination over security at this stage of his career.

 

[Blue and Green]

No. My understanding is that if the Canucks are in LTIR territory then it doesn't matter as the Canucks can call up a replacement. If the Canucks want to start the season below the cap (like this year) and accumulate cap space throughout the season then we need to accumulate enough cap space to account for Willander's full potential salary (i.e. with all the bonuses he could achieve).

So say Willander doesn't make the opening day roster, D-Petey/Mancini makes it, and the Canucks start the season $100K under the cap. If say Myers is injuried after Game 1, we can't recall Willander because of his bonuses unless somebody is put on LTIR and the Canucks are in LTIR territory. We also can't simply swap Willander for D-Petey/Mancini until we've accumulated enough cap space to account for Willander's bonuses.

That's my understanding of it.

Not sure where you're getting that from but it's not correct.

When not in LTIR, teams can simply exceed the upper limit by 7.5% to account for potential performance bonuses. It's laid out in in 50.5 (h) of the CBA. The types of machinations that you've been describing are for clubs that are about to enter LTIR, not for a team in non-LTIR circumstances. For LTIR, teams want to maximize their performance bonus relief pool which is set on the first day that a team enters LTIR. That's why Podkolzin was on the opening day roster for 23-24 (Vancouver started the season in LTIR) but Lekkerimaki was in the AHL on opening day of 24-25 (Vancouver wasn't starting the season in LTIR).

 

[F A N]

Not sure where you're getting that from but it's not correct.

I am correct. I actually have gotten this from multiple sources. But since you referenced the CBA, have a look at 50.9(h). It's definitely confusing.

When not in LTIR, teams can simply exceed the upper limit by 7.5% to account for potential performance bonuses. It's laid out in in 50.5 (h) of the CBA. The types of machinations that you've been describing are for clubs that are about to enter LTIR, not for a team in non-LTIR circumstances. For LTIR, teams want to maximize their performance bonus relief pool which is set on the first day that a team enters LTIR.

You're describing the scenario where the the player with a bonus-laden ELC is on the opening day roster. To be clear, LTIR rules apply regardles. So if Hronek is placed on LTIR, the Canucks can't recall Willander to replace him 1 for 1 regardless of what bonuses Willander signs for since Willander's potential cap hit will be much less than Hronek's. I was talking about a scenario where if Willander wasn't on the opening day roster and the Canucks are just under the cap, the Canucks can't swap Willander for D-Petey/Mancini after Game 1 without placing a player on LTIR because of Willander's (likely) greater bonuses.

That's why Podkolzin was on the opening day roster for 23-24 (Vancouver started the season in LTIR) but Lekkerimaki was in the AHL on opening day of 24-25 (Vancouver wasn't starting the season in LTIR).

The "reasons" are irrelevant other than they are examples of the differences in which the two players' bonuses are accounted for in season. Because Podkolzin was on the opening day roster, it didn't matter whether the Canucks were in LTIR or not, Pods' bonuses don't need to be accounted for when determining whether there is cap space to recall the player (should Pods be sent down and recalled). But because Lekkerimaki wasn't on the opening day roster, his bonuses need to be accounted for when determining whether there is enough cap space to recall the player.

 

[Goatlender]

A buddy brought this up to me.
He basically said, maybe the hold up is he knows that he will get traded by the canucks this offseason, and does not wanna go to some random team, which is why he might just hold out and choose in a couple years instead.

How would he know that, though?

 

[Jerry the great]

How would he know that, though?

I could see his agent little finger.....er.... I mean Todd Diamond, advise him that there's no point signing anything other than a deal with max schedule A's until after the draft because:

IF he's going to get moved, it will be just before, or at the draft and IF someone does trade for him they're going to probably just give him max bonuses (and maybe a healthy GP bonus and even schedule Bs if they aren't a cap team) to get him signed.

If he isn't traded before or at the draft, I think he's coming to dev camp and will sign an ELC with the Canucks once he's in town.

Everything changes once he gets here. there is no longer any reason slow play this from his perspective and if he signs, he immediately gets his signing bonus. If he gets there and is adamant about max As, the team can either dig in further (stupid IMO) or make a big deal about his "preparation" and pro readiness to justify giving him full bonuses and everything either side has said and done to that point will be water under the bridge.

if they're smart they'll do it without him having to dig in...as it's kind of irrelevant whether it's 3 As or 4 As.

 

[Canucks LB]

I could see his agent little finger.....er.... I mean Todd Diamond, advise him that there's no point signing anything other than a deal with max schedule A's until after the draft because:

IF he's going to get moved, it will be just before, or at the draft and IF someone does trade for him they're going to probably just give him max bonuses (and maybe a healthy GP bonus and even schedule Bs if they aren't a cap team) to get him signed.

If he isn't traded before or at the draft, I think he's coming to dev camp and will sign an ELC with the Canucks once he's in town.

Everything changes once he gets here. there is no longer any reason slow play this from his perspective and if he signs, he immediately gets his signing bonus. If he gets there and is adamant about max As, the team can either dig in further (stupid IMO) or make a big deal about his "preparation" and pro readiness to justify giving him full bonuses and everything either side has said and done to that point will be water under the bridge.

if they're smart they'll do it without him having to dig in...as it's kind of irrelevant whether it's 3 As or 4 As.

Exactly it makes a ton of sense, why sign now if you know, there’s a good chance you’re gonna get traded, and if the team is trading for you, you’re pretty much gonna get whatever you want.

Honestly, I like this theory

 

[Jerry the great]

Exactly it makes a ton of sense, why sign now if you know, there’s a good chance you’re gonna get traded, and if the team is trading for you, you’re pretty much gonna get whatever you want.

Honestly, I like this theory

I don't think he's going to be traded (unless someone blows their doors off), but we'll see.

 

[Nick Lang]

This Willander issue is a perfect example of how people on these forums let themselves get spun right out of reality. The amount of criticism is astounding for what is the actual reality. They haven't yet signed a college prospect which wouldn't have helped us in any way this year, and for which they have two more years to do.

The speculation is rampant yet it's ridiculous that some people buy this $200,000 difference bs story. The finger pointing and silly cut downs are just super immature angst from disgruntled fans that couldn't understand the down year. Allvin isn't negotiating in public like some here believe and just lets all the details slip out as if they're totally incompetent or something. For me it's clear they are very carefully planning for the next season and there is far more nuance then they're cheap f#*king idiots that don't understand anything about hockey and how to add up contracts.

 

[racerjoe]

This Willander issue is a perfect example of how people on these forums let themselves get spun right out of reality. The amount of criticism is astounding for what is the actual reality. They haven't yet signed a college prospect which wouldn't have helped us in any way this year, and for which they have two more years to do.

The speculation is rampant yet it's ridiculous that some people buy this $200,000 difference bs story. The finger pointing and silly cut downs are just super immature angst from disgruntled fans that couldn't understand the down year. Allvin isn't negotiating in public like some here believe and just lets all the details slip out as if they're totally incompetent or something. For me it's clear they are very carefully planning for the next season and there is far more nuance then they're cheap f#*king idiots that don't understand anything about hockey and how to add up contracts.

Nothing new has happened in a while. So no one should really be changing what their thoughts are.

however this seems to be handled really messy. As a one of that can be fine. No one is perfect, but it seems to be part of a pattern. I am not against this management team, not yet at least, but they seem to make more things messy then they need to be. That is my issue.

I don't expect him to sign any time soon as there is no pressure for either side.

 

[Blue and Green]

I am correct. I actually have gotten this from multiple sources. But since you referenced the CBA, have a look at 50.9(h). It's definitely confusing.


You're describing the scenario where the the player with a bonus-laden ELC is on the opening day roster. To be clear, LTIR rules apply regardles. So if Hronek is placed on LTIR, the Canucks can't recall Willander to replace him 1 for 1 regardless of what bonuses Willander signs for since Willander's potential cap hit will be much less than Hronek's. I was talking about a scenario where if Willander wasn't on the opening day roster and the Canucks are just under the cap, the Canucks can't swap Willander for D-Petey/Mancini after Game 1 without placing a player on LTIR because of Willander's (likely) greater bonuses.


The "reasons" are irrelevant other than they are examples of the differences in which the two players' bonuses are accounted for in season. Because Podkolzin was on the opening day roster, it didn't matter whether the Canucks were in LTIR or not, Pods' bonuses don't need to be accounted for when determining whether there is cap space to recall the player (should Pods be sent down and recalled). But because Lekkerimaki wasn't on the opening day roster, his bonuses need to be accounted for when determining whether there is enough cap space to recall the player.

Who/where are these multiple sources? Either you're misinterpreting what they wrote/said, or what they wrote/said is inaccurate.

It is very clearly spelled out in CBA section 50.5 (h) "Accounting for Performance Bonuses" that a club can exceed the daily Averaged Club Salary upper limit by up to 7.5% to account for potential performance bonuses; then, if the seasonal upper limit is exceeded due to paid performance bonuses, any overage is applied as a reduction on the club's upper limit for the following season.

In non-LTIR situations, the only way that swapping in a contract with higher performance bonuses would be prohibited is if it would push the team over that 7.5% performance bonus cushion on top of the upper limit, which is rarely an issue. That's why typically the base salary + signing bonus AAV is shown as the cap hit for ELC players on NHL rosters, rather than being inclusive of potential performance bonuses.

It is when a team is about to enter LTIR that it makes sense to manoeuvre to maximize both the standard cap hit plus the performance bonuses on the roster, because the salary relief pools and the performance bonus relief pools are set on the first day.

 

[Nick Lang]

Nothing new has happened in a while. So no one should really be changing what their thoughts are.

however this seems to be handled really messy. As a one of that can be fine. No one is perfect, but it seems to be part of a pattern. I am not against this management team, not yet at least, but they seem to make more things messy then they need to be. That is my issue.

I don't expect him to sign any time soon as there is no pressure for either side.

I get your angle kind of but the problem I have is the "it seems to be part of a pattern", part. Of course they aren't infallible and have made their fair share of mistakes. Signing players really hasn't been one of them though. No one really knows exactly what the reasoning is here but so many just take the super negative stance.

Really it's most likely having to make room for his potential bonuses which he won't achieve anyway. If they can't paper transaction him onto the opening day line-up our cap situation is not great yet again and we won't be able to bring him up without a trade.

All I would say is there must be something more to this besides these guys can't add simple numbers up or are too cheap to spend $200,000 or pay out a $97,000 signing bonus. Willander seems to want his "bonuses" more than he wants the Canucks to be able to compete. I wouldn't be comfortable penciling Willander into the lineup on starting day either. Especially if EP25 and/or Mancini are in their plans that's a possible recipe for a repeat of last season.

 

[Jerry the great]

Nothing new has happened in a while. So no one should really be changing what their thoughts are.

however this seems to be handled really messy. As a one of that can be fine. No one is perfect, but it seems to be part of a pattern. I am not against this management team, not yet at least, but they seem to make more things messy then they need to be. That is my issue.

I don't expect him to sign any time soon as there is no pressure for either side.

The noisiness of this situation is 100% agent driven. They want (imo) Buium money and the Canucks are reluctant to give it up yet. So festivus come early, they air their grievances in public because they know that this market will blow it up and:

 

[Nick Lang]

Who/where are these multiple sources? Either you're misinterpreting what they wrote/said, or what they wrote/said is inaccurate.

It is very clearly spelled out in CBA section 50.5 (h) "Accounting for Performance Bonuses" that a club can exceed the daily Averaged Club Salary upper limit by up to 7.5% to account for potential performance bonuses; then, if the seasonal upper limit is exceeded due to paid performance bonuses, any overage is applied as a reduction on the club's upper limit for the following season.

In non-LTIR situations, the only way that swapping in a contract with higher performance bonuses would be prohibited is if it would push the team over that 7.5% performance bonus cushion on top of the upper limit, which is rarely an issue. That's why typically the base salary + signing bonus AAV is shown as the cap hit for ELC players on NHL rosters, rather than being inclusive of potential performance bonuses.

It is when a team is about to enter LTIR that it makes sense to manoeuvre to maximize both the standard cap hit plus the performance bonuses on the roster, because the salary relief pools and the performance bonus relief pools are set on the first day.

You're missing some key info. From an article on Canucks Army:

In brief, performance bonuses work one of two ways. If a player with performance bonuses is on a team’s roster to start the year – as in, on their officially-registered opening day roster – that player’s potential performance bonuses go into something called a “performance bonus relief pool.” The amount of theoretical money in this pool is actually allowed to go over the salary cap ceiling by a maximum of 7.5%, and it’s a buffer intended to prevent teams from experiencing a cap violation just because a player on their team earned some bonuses.

If a player in this situation doesn’t hit their bonus marks, it’s no big deal, and that money never gets paid out or actually counts against the cap. If the player does hit their marks, the team is covered. Any bonus amounts that fit under the current year’s cap ceiling are counted against it in the current year, and any amounts that exceed the current year’s ceiling are rolled over to the next season.

However, this performance bonus relief pool only comes into effect for a player that is on a team’s opening day roster.

The way performance bonuses work for a player not on a teams’ opening day roster – as in one that a team has to recall at a later date – is decidedly more simple, but oh so much harder to navigate. For any player not on a team’s opening day roster that is later recalled, a team must have enough cap space on hand to accommodate that player’s maximum potential salary, in full. In other words, any player who is recalled after Day One have their cap hits counted as their base salary plus the maximum amount of performance bonuses they can still earn. And that’s easier said than done for teams that fly close to the cap ceiling.

Why Jonathan Lekkerimäki’s performance bonuses could put the Canucks in a tough spot

Look, Jonathan Lekkerimäki was going to have a difficult time cracking...

canucksarmy.com

 

[racerjoe]

I get your angle kind of but the problem I have is the "it seems to be part of a pattern", part. Of course they aren't infallible and have made their fair share of mistakes. Signing players really hasn't been one of them though. No one really knows exactly what the reasoning is here but so many just take the super negative stance.

Really it's most likely having to make room for his potential bonuses which he won't achieve anyway. If they can't paper transaction him onto the opening day line-up our cap situation is not great yet again and we won't be able to bring him up without a trade.

All I would say is there must be something more to this besides these guys can't add simple numbers up or are too cheap to spend $200,000 or pay out a $97,000 signing bonus. Willander seems to want his "bonuses" more than he wants the Canucks to be able to compete. I wouldn't be comfortable penciling Willander into the lineup on starting day either. Especially if EP25 and/or Mancini are in their plans that's a possible recipe for a repeat of last season.

The mess is just the bigger pattern in this case. In the past yes there have been some messes, like the Pettersson contract, hell even the Horvat one, but I agree in large terms its fine. Its after when handling things in the media and making them messy. That is the mess I am talking about. Instead of making things simpler they always make it messy. This included. This is an easy fire to put out, and they really haven't, and seem to just make it worse. Its mind boggling. Again I think we will sign him when pressure starts to mount on both sides.

The noisiness of this situation is 100% agent driven. They want (imo) Buium money and the Canucks are reluctant to give it up yet. So festivus come early, they air their grievances in public because they know that this market will blow it up and:

While honestly I don't think he deserves the max bonuses... i also don't think most are a huge deal. its only 200k and if he is hitting those bonuses he is still wildly out performing his contract.

 

[strattonius]

The only explanation that makes any sense is management has committed to trade him for forward help and ownership doesn't want to be on the hook for his signing bonus.

That isn't even remotely close to the ONLY explanation Willander isn't signed. But of course you are free to catastrophize the situation and fear monger our overly sensitive fanbase.

There's like 2 months before the draft, the season just ended. It's a little unusual there's a hang up but at this point everyone is over-reactinf because there's literally nothing else to talk.about around the team. So why not hypothesize an inept management group after a failed season? Par the course around here.

 

[Blue and Green]

You're missing some key info. From an article on Canucks Army:

In brief, performance bonuses work one of two ways. If a player with performance bonuses is on a team’s roster to start the year – as in, on their officially-registered opening day roster – that player’s potential performance bonuses go into something called a “performance bonus relief pool.” The amount of theoretical money in this pool is actually allowed to go over the salary cap ceiling by a maximum of 7.5%, and it’s a buffer intended to prevent teams from experiencing a cap violation just because a player on their team earned some bonuses.

If a player in this situation doesn’t hit their bonus marks, it’s no big deal, and that money never gets paid out or actually counts against the cap. If the player does hit their marks, the team is covered. Any bonus amounts that fit under the current year’s cap ceiling are counted against it in the current year, and any amounts that exceed the current year’s ceiling are rolled over to the next season.

However, this performance bonus relief pool only comes into effect for a player that is on a team’s opening day roster.

The way performance bonuses work for a player not on a teams’ opening day roster – as in one that a team has to recall at a later date – is decidedly more simple, but oh so much harder to navigate. For any player not on a team’s opening day roster that is later recalled, a team must have enough cap space on hand to accommodate that player’s maximum potential salary, in full. In other words, any player who is recalled after Day One have their cap hits counted as their base salary plus the maximum amount of performance bonuses they can still earn. And that’s easier said than done for teams that fly close to the cap ceiling.

Why Jonathan Lekkerimäki’s performance bonuses could put the Canucks in a tough spot

Look, Jonathan Lekkerimäki was going to have a difficult time cracking...

canucksarmy.com

Okay, I'm going to ask @mouser to read the cap stuff that we've been discussing on this page and comment because Mouser is the most knowledgeable cap person that I'm aware of on this board and perhaps can point me to the area of the CBA where this is specified. @F A N I'm open to the possibility that you were right.

 

[iceburg]

A buddy brought this up to me.
He basically said, maybe the hold up is he knows that he will get traded by the canucks this offseason, and does not wanna go to some random team, which is why he might just hold out and choose in a couple years instead.

He's also said that staying in school isn't best for his development. Of the two, I think this one will way much heavier on his decision.