Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[LordBacon]

It makes sense too.

We are working against the Quinn Hughes timer here.

The time to accumulate assets was the first 2 years JR and Alvin took over. Now its out of the question.

This team ain’t gonna acquire assets and do any form of soft reset in the conventional sense as long as blueberry boi is here.

Hell we couldn’t even let this terrible season go even when the writing is on the wall.

 

[lawrence]

Entry Level Performance Bonuses | Puckpedia

Entry Level Contracts are eligible for Performance Bonuses. There are two categories of Performance Bonuses: "A" Level Bonuses "A" Bonuses are worth $212,500 each, to a maximum of $850,000 (maximum 4 achieved). For players drafted starting in 2022, "A" bonuses are worth $250,000 each, to a...

puckpedia.com

This is the best source for ECL bonus info I know.

So he’s already eligible and I don’t think he will hit any of those with hronek and Myers ahead of him on the right side. So what’s the hold up ?

 

[ManVanFan]

that would be totally inconsistent with everything we have seen or heard from him since being drafted.

It would but it also seems odd that he hasn't signed now because it had also seemed as this was his path up until now.

Defensemen
-10 goals
-25 assists
-40 points
-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP

If those are the bonuses how many of them do you think he actually hits in his 3 years. Van has a pretty good D core already now. Unless they are going to slide him right in there with Hughes. He's probably only getting 2 of those.

 

[Jerry the great]

It would but it also seems odd that he hasn't signed now because it had also seemed as this was his path up until now.

Defensemen
-10 goals
-25 assists
-40 points
-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP

If those are the bonuses how many of them do you think he actually hits in his 3 years. Van has a pretty good D core already now. Unless they are going to slide him right in there with Hughes. He's probably only getting 2 of those.

It's per year and there are a bunch that are feasible. Also, there's a better chance at hitting those numbers in years 2 and 3, so maybe he's asking for the contract to be structured like Dvorsky's? you can kind of see why the Canucks who are potentially going to be up against the cap (especially if they have to manage a Quinn Hughes extension) aren't super eager to have potential dead cap performance bonus carry overs to deal with.

We first heard about schedule As being an issue weeks ago, and now he's still unsigned and his agent is talking about going back to BU if they don't get a contract they're comfortable with. At the same time we hear he's coming to his third development camp this summer. Seems likely that those things won't both happen. either he comes to camp (and probably signs an ELC) or he doesn't come to camp, follows through on his threat and returns to BU for another season (which would be pretty stupid IMO).

 

[theguardianII]

It's per year and there are a bunch that are feasible. Also, there's a better chance at hitting those numbers in years 2 and 3, so maybe he's asking for the contract to be structured like Dvorsky's? you can kind of see why the Canucks who are potentially going to be up against the cap (especially if they have to manage a Quinn Hughes extension) aren't super eager to have potential dead cap performance bonus carry overs to deal with.

View attachment 1019930

We first heard about schedule As being an issue weeks ago, and now he's still unsigned and his agent is talking about going back to BU if they don't get a contract they're comfortable with. At the same time we hear he's coming to his third development camp this summer. Seems likely that those things won't both happen. either he comes to camp (and probably signs an ELC) or he doesn't come to camp, follows through on his threat and returns to BU for another season (which would be pretty stupid IMO).

He will sign as soon as Tocchet is gone

 

[iceburg]

Tripper's post had the following: "[The Willander situation] is strange in contrast to other analogous signings around the league.".

There's little variation in these top prospect signings. That this one breaks from the norm is why it's a story.

To me, this is not a good look on management. I'm really not sure there is a good argument to be made for what they're doing. Just imo.

With the caveat that we've since learned that TW's camp says he is considering going back to school (not a good outcome IMO) the argument is simply that waiting makes sense for both sides if there's no pressure to sign. The nature of negotiations inherently means discomfort on both sides.

In the words of the master negotiator Herb Cohen: "I care.... but not that much". Signalling that you'll walk away (which is what the TW camp just did by saying he could go back to school) is the strongest stance to take in any negotiation.

 

[Jerry the great]

With the caveat that we've since learned that TW's camp says he is considering going back to school (not a good outcome IMO) the argument is simply that waiting makes sense for both sides if there's no pressure to sign. The nature of negotiations inherently means discomfort on both sides.

In the words of the master negotiator Herb Cohen: "I care.... but not that much". Signalling that you'll walk away (which is what the TW camp just did by saying he could go back to school) is the strongest stance to take in any negotiation.

no urgency to do anything until (post draft) development camp. If he decides not to attend (contrary to what Alvin said yesterday), it would be the first actual red flag IMO. If he comes to camp, i think he'll sign his ELC there.

 

[Nucky]

Really don't understand how not signing Willander(team's choice according to this theory) = he's getting traded

Makes no sense

I'd rather believe the reporting that the team is squabbling over bonuses because that actually makes sense even if I hate it.

 

[ManVanFan]

It's per year and there are a bunch that are feasible. Also, there's a better chance at hitting those numbers in years 2 and 3, so maybe he's asking for the contract to be structured like Dvorsky's? you can kind of see why the Canucks who are potentially going to be up against the cap (especially if they have to manage a Quinn Hughes extension) aren't super eager to have potential dead cap performance bonus carry overs to deal with.

View attachment 1019930

We first heard about schedule As being an issue weeks ago, and now he's still unsigned and his agent is talking about going back to BU if they don't get a contract they're comfortable with. At the same time we hear he's coming to his third development camp this summer. Seems likely that those things won't both happen. either he comes to camp (and probably signs an ELC) or he doesn't come to camp, follows through on his threat and returns to BU for another season (which would be pretty stupid IMO).

If it really is the schedule A bonuses holding this up. I don't see why trading him is not a very good option. I did mention the Buffalo Sabres up there.

Noah Östlund 16OA. 36 points in 45 AHL games last year. Lekkerimaki's former center. 21 years old. 475K bonuses
Konsta Helenius 14OA. 34 points in 63 AHL games last year. 18 years old. 600K bonuses.
Jiri Kulich 28OA. 24 points in 62 NHL games. 21 years old. Zero bonuses.

Willander being a right shot D and Sabres desperate need for a right shot D has a little more value so maybe swap first round picks. Canucks move up 7 spots. Canucks could then definitely draft another center and all of a sudden, they have some center depth for the future.

 

[Diversification]

It's per year and there are a bunch that are feasible. Also, there's a better chance at hitting those numbers in years 2 and 3, so maybe he's asking for the contract to be structured like Dvorsky's? you can kind of see why the Canucks who are potentially going to be up against the cap (especially if they have to manage a Quinn Hughes extension) aren't super eager to have potential dead cap performance bonus carry overs to deal with.

View attachment 1019930

We first heard about schedule As being an issue weeks ago, and now he's still unsigned and his agent is talking about going back to BU if they don't get a contract they're comfortable with. At the same time we hear he's coming to his third development camp this summer. Seems likely that those things won't both happen. either he comes to camp (and probably signs an ELC) or he doesn't come to camp, follows through on his threat and returns to BU for another season (which would be pretty stupid IMO).

As I understand it, the cap is projected to rise year over year, so his performance bonus becomes less and less relevant over time, correct?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

So he’s already eligible and I don’t think he will hit any of those with hronek and Myers ahead of him on the right side. So what’s the hold up ?

Exactly.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Willander easily hits those bonuses if he’s paired with Hughes which is the most likeliest thing to ever happen as soon as he turns pro. 25 assists, top 4 TOI, top 3 +/-, all star rookie team are all very much within reason which is why they’re squabbling on the bonuses.

They need to get it on and sign him.I have no doubt he’ll fetch a good return in a package but my preference is to sign him.

 

[Jerry the great]

As I understand it, the cap is projected to rise year over year, so his performance bonus becomes less and less relevant over time, correct?

Sure, but the Canucks have almost $5MM in dead cap from the OEL buyout in each of the next two seasons, just over $2MM the year after that and will probably be spending to the cap. Every dollar kind of matters if they're trying to put together a team that Hughes wants to stay an be part of.

That said, I don't think this is really a big deal at all. I see posturing from both sides but continue to think a deal is done this summer and all the bed wetting will have been for naught.

 

[bobbyb2009]

It's actually not. A signed Willander erases all of the question marks currently surrounding him. That's well worth 100K to have increased trade value.

Penny wise, pound foollish. That's FrAq through and through.

This narrative really irks me, no offence. Maybe I am missing something and have this all wrong.

But maybe this is almost certainly NOT about money at all. Why in the world would it be about the dollars? It is way more likely, IMO, that it is about one or more of the following:

* The CAP hit and the resulting squeezing him into the lineup rather than being forced to leave him in the AHL because they can't fit a 2 Million hit into the team instead of having a 750k Noah Juulsen on the roster

* The extra Cap hit meaning they maybe can't add a quality centre piece, all while spending to the CAP (again not about saving the extra "100k") as they constantly were pushing the cap whenever it goes up

* The agent wanting to squeeze the extra dollars instead of understanding the impact on the team of the fact that even though the bonuses wont be met, he wants his client "respected" all the while, not realizing what that might potentially mean to his NHL opportunity short term

* The young man wanting to play in the World Championships instead of the AHL this srping

* Or even potentially the young man actually considering his option to get another year of his degree under his belt, even if he ultimately chooses not to do that. A choice like that on this part might actually be about his future and get closer to a degree before he embarks on his pro career, all while giving him more time to mature physically

Why do we jump to narrative that this is Aqu trying to save 100K? This notion is completely silly. I really dont like the image of the family, but they have in no way shown they are going to "nickel and dime" anything. They make selfish business decisions in their lives all the time, and this has allowed them to continue to build wealth. But they have always spent as much money on the players salaries as anybody in the league.

 

[bobbyb2009]

Sure, but the Canucks have almost $5MM in dead cap from the OEL buyout in each of the next two seasons, just over $2MM the year after that and will probably be spending to the cap. Every dollar kind of matters if they're trying to put together a team that Hughes wants to stay an be part of.

That said, I don't think this is really a big deal at all. I see posturing from both sides but continue to think a deal is done this summer and all the bed wetting will have been for naught.

This!

 

[BluesyShoes]

By Alvin’s chuckle after saying “Willander’s family advisor, lolz, Todd Diamond. . .” it sounds to me like Allvin thinks this is unreasonable from their side and that it is largely coming from the agent. He probably heard from Samuelson that Tom is excited to be a Canuck so he feels they have leverage with the player, and they are trying to fit everyone under the cap due to the penalties, which is non-negotiable to be in that locker room with the rest of the guys. Also a litmus test to see who’s going to “buy-in” to the team salary structure to be a competitive team. Could be posturing, could be their actual position. Who plays ball in negotiations might be a deciding factor in who they move if it comes down to D-Petey, Willander, and Mancini. But there’s also zero rush, if he’s coming to camp they will revisit this then. I doubt we see much movement on this until then. If he cracks the World team for Sweden, that could earn himself more leverage for a better deal, too.

 

[Diversification]

This narrative really irks me, no offence. Maybe I am missing something and have this all wrong.

But maybe this is almost certainly NOT about money at all. Why in the world would it be about the dollars? It is way more likely, IMO, that it is about one or more of the following:

* The CAP hit and the resulting squeezing him into the lineup rather than being forced to leave him in the AHL because they can't fit a 2 Million hit into the team instead of having a 750k Noah Juulsen on the roster

* The extra Cap hit meaning they maybe can't add a quality centre piece, all while spending to the CAP (again not about saving the extra "100k") as they constantly were pushing the cap whenever it goes up

* The agent wanting to squeeze the extra dollars instead of understanding the impact on the team of the fact that even though the bonuses wont be met, he wants his client "respected" all the while, not realizing what that might potentially mean to his NHL opportunity short term

* The young man wanting to play in the World Championships instead of the AHL this srping

* Or even potentially the young man actually considering his option to get another year of his degree under his belt, even if he ultimately chooses not to do that. A choice like that on this part might actually be about his future and get closer to a degree before he embarks on his pro career, all while giving him more time to mature physically

Why do we jump to narrative that this is Aqu trying to save 100K? This notion is completely silly. I really dont like the image of the family, but they have in no way shown they are going to "nickel and dime" anything. They make selfish business decisions in their lives all the time, and this has allowed them to continue to build wealth. But they have always spent as much money on the players salaries as anybody in the league.

If you follow the thread, you'll see why it went to Francisco Aquilini. Do I know that's what's happening? Of course not. But that was the topic we were discussing and I was not the one who raised the possibility.

 

[Bleach Clean]

With the caveat that we've since learned that TW's camp says he is considering going back to school (not a good outcome IMO) the argument is simply that waiting makes sense for both sides if there's no pressure to sign. The nature of negotiations inherently means discomfort on both sides.

In the words of the master negotiator Herb Cohen: "I care.... but not that much". Signalling that you'll walk away (which is what the TW camp just did by saying he could go back to school) is the strongest stance to take in any negotiation.

Willander is pressured to sign and Allvin is pressured to get him signed -- That's why they're negotiating at all.

Their efforts, however, are unrepresentative of most analogous cases league wide. Which means one party, or both, has done something atypical. This has lead Willander to take a more defensive posture (going back to school). We agree that this is not a good outcome. The question is: Was this not-good outcome a reasonable expectation from the outset? IMO, no, hence the deserved criticism of management.

People are quick to marginalize occurrences like this not realizing they are defending the outlier position.

 

[iceburg]

Willander is pressured to sign and Allvin is pressured to get him signed -- That's why they're negotiating at all.

Their efforts, however, are unrepresentative of most analogous cases league wide. Which means one party, or both, has done something atypical. This has lead Willander to take a more defensive posture (going back to school). We agree that this is not a good outcome. The question is: Was this not-good outcome a reasonable expectation from the outset? IMO, no, hence the deserved criticism of management.

People are quick to marginalize occurrences like this, not realizing they are defending the outlier position.

Sure, but in the context of my statement "no pressure" means "virtually no pressure". At least not enough to make a deal happen now.

I accept your point that it's atypical.

 

[VanJack]

As of 'now', Wilander is supposedly heading back to BU for his junior season. At least that's the 'spin' from the Canucks and his agent.

But I still think Wilander will be in the NHL by training camp in September--either with the Canucks or somewhere else.

He may end up being the prospect the Canucks are 'forced' to sacrifice, in order to address their gaping hole down the middle.

 

[F A N]

Management likes to lowball and then often come up a lot and quickly at the end. I do think a deal will get done here.

As for trading Willander because of Quinn, I don't think it's a good idea unless a team overpays. The team needs a top 4 D on the right side. Myers might be ok at times but he won't be here forever.

 

[Jerry the great]

Willander is pressured to sign and Allvin is pressured to get him signed -- That's why they're negotiating at all.

Their efforts, however, are unrepresentative of most analogous cases league wide. Which means one party, or both, has done something atypical. This has lead Willander to take a more defensive posture (going back to school). We agree that this is not a good outcome. The question is: Was this not-good outcome a reasonable expectation from the outset? IMO, no, hence the deserved criticism of management.

People are quick to marginalize occurrences like this, not realizing they are defending the outlier position.

That's not true at all IMO. regardless of what country the player is born in, if they play college hockey, this is absolutely a "known known" risk. players can always play the I'm going back to school card and defer their pro careers if they think it's in their best interests. Jimmy Snuggerud did it last summer and St Louis just had to burn a year and offer him significantly more in performance bonus than his draft slot warranted.

Will Willander do the same? I think not, but he might.

 

[Bleach Clean]

That's not true at all IMO. regardless of what country the player is born in, if they play college hockey, this is absolutely a "known known" risk. players can always play the I'm going back to school card and defer their pro careers if they think it's in their best interests. Jimmy Snuggerud did it last summer and St Louis just had to burn a year and offer him significantly more in performance bonus than his draft slot warranted.

Will Willander do the same? I think not, but he might.

The risk is known, but encountering the risk is still unlikely. This changes it from "reasonable expectation" to outlier event. I mean, this is why it's a story now.

Burning a year off and providing more in bonuses is the usual course with high pedigree college players.

 

[Jerry the great]

The risk is known, but encountering the risk is still unlikely. This changes it from "reasonable expectation" to outlier event. I mean, this is why it's a story now.

Burning a year off and providing more in bonuses is the usual course with high pedigree college players.

Did the Canucks not try to do that?

lekkerimaki's contract was consistent with the players drafted around him. It's not like they have a history of being totally unreasonable with their ELC offers.

It's a story now (and well before Willander had finished his season) because Diamond wanted to turn up the heat, so he put it in Dhaliwals head, then he played the Seravali card (which brought the rest of the info peddlers out of the woodwork to discredit him). He knows how this market works...having just negotiated both of Lankinen's contracts.

 

[GranvilleIsland]

Todd Diamond trying his best to burn a bridge that just got him Lankinen's deal is an interesting choice.