Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[sandwichbird2023]

You can find iffy-ish reasons at any step along the way but the bottom line is that this is an absolute generational offensive talent from the blueline and he simply never put together elite offensive numbers before getting to the NHL. It's weird.

A guy as good as he is in the NHL you'd expect to get minutes over Matt Gildon at the U18s or drive enough offense at Michigan that he single-handedly turns them into an elite offensive team.

Like, aged 17-20 Adam Clendening generally produced better offensive results than Quinn Hughes.

A pass-first type player usually depend on his teammates more for racking up points, comparing to somebody who can score goals themselves. Hughes prior to this season doesn't have an very good shot and doesn't use it much anyways. He has always been able to score points in the NHL primarily with his elite ability to transitioning the puck up-ice, elite zone entries, elite at setting up plays and making great passes. However, none of that will result in points if, at the end of the play, his teammates can't finish. Judging by the roster from his Michigan team, there weren't a lot of finishers. That is probably a main reason why his point total is lower than expected. He still produce really well all things considered (having a point on a high percentage of the team's total goals-scored), but I'm sure it would be a lot better had he been on the ice with players closer to his talent, like he has at the NHL level.

 

[F A N]

You can find iffy-ish reasons at any step along the way but the bottom line is that this is an absolute generational offensive talent from the blueline and he simply never put together elite offensive numbers before getting to the NHL. It's weird.

A guy as good as he is in the NHL you'd expect to get minutes over Matt Gildon at the U18s or drive enough offense at Michigan that he single-handedly turns them into an elite offensive team.

Like, aged 17-20 Adam Clendening generally produced better offensive results than Quinn Hughes.

In context, Hughes' NDTP production mirrored that of Brady Tkachuk and wasn't far off from Josh Norris. Then in Michigan, Hughes outproduced Norris and his production was similar to Tkachuk's in his first year. There were scouts calling him the best player in college hockey towards the end of the season. That earned Hughes a spot at the WC, which I believe is a rarity among American draft-eligible Dmen. The next season Hughes led his team in scoring with Lockwood finishing second. Quinn definitely didn't play with the powerhouse talent that Luke played with.

When you do watch Quinn play, you notice all of the things he does. The end result is that he always seem to have the puck on his stick. One could see how the offensive opportunities he creates can amount to nothing though when playing with lesser talent.

 

[Raistlin]

A pass-first type player usually depend on his teammates more for racking up points, comparing to somebody who can score goals themselves. Hughes prior to this season doesn't have an very good shot and doesn't use it much anyways. He has always been able to score points in the NHL primarily with his elite ability to transitioning the puck up-ice, elite zone entries, elite at setting up plays and making great passes. However, none of that will result in points if, at the end of the play, his teammates can't finish. Judging by the roster from his Michigan team, there weren't a lot of finishers. That is probably a main reason why his point total is lower than expected. He still produce really well all things considered (having a point on a high percentage of the team's total goals-scored), but I'm sure it would be a lot better had he been on the ice with players closer to his talent, like he has at the NHL level.

a good counter example is Hunter Brzu, anything he sends up ice, esp to Rehkopf, went in at Kitchener, last year was not representative of his talent. But I think giving a player the C changes certain types of players. Before this year, I dont think QH and generational can be mentioned anywhere in the same sentence, now its not so preposterous to suggest that. A transition monster first, then a possession fiend next, and can now he can score just screams a guy that is expanding his bag of tricks like a McDavid. He has expanded his ceiling from the player we saw in UMich. Watch him come in next year with a mean streak and start playing like Trouba.

 

[DFAC]

He gets kind of pigeonholed as that, but especially later in his career, he was far more of an all-around minute muncher who just happened to be very good offensively as well. But he was a darn smart defensive player.


Personally, i'm not sure it'd be the most direct comp or projection all around...but i do find Willander reminds me a ton of Boyle, stylistically at least. Willander doesn't have nearly the same aggressive, dynamic offensive streak (at this point at least and especially in the role he was asked to play this year - and probably never will). Probably won't ever run a powerplay the same way so the production will never be there. Willander is also a bit bigger. But the way they skate and use that to defend is very similar to me. And frankly...they just visually/stylistically look very similar to me on the ice.


So i can get behind that in a sense. I don't really get the Slavin thing. I feel like he's just become a generic "catch-all" for "really good defence-first defenceman". In the same sense that every "non-physical no offense defenceman" is Chris Tanev to Canucks fans. But Slavin skates and defends very differently to Willander imo, and Slavin's bigger, lanky frame stands out more in the way he defends, compared to Willander.

The prevailing comp around the draft here seemed to be a "Hamhuis type" and tbh, that's probably not the worst comp overall...though i don't find that they look all that similar on the ice, so it's more of the other elements of projection.

Comparisons are always a bit of a weird mashup of "role" and "style" though, with "plus this" or "minus that". And on the lazier end, just matching up a similar size player with comparable projected scoring results.

Willander reminds me a lot of Anton Stralman - who in his prime was nothing to scoff at. Great skater, could move the puck up the ice well. Not an elite PPQB but could do the job well.

 

[biturbo19]

Willander reminds me a lot of Anton Stralman - who in his prime was nothing to scoff at. Great skater, could move the puck up the ice well. Not an elite PPQB but could do the job well.

I could see him being similar in impact. I think Willander has a fair bit more potential for "assertiveness" or "aggressiveness" in his game though. Not just in physicality per se, but in terms of just applying pressure and skating the puck up, and just in his all around mindset. How that develops at the Pro level certainly remains to be seen, and even at the collegiate level still working to establish consistency in that...but the flashes are there. His skating is also on another level, relatively speaking. Not that Stralman's was bad, but Willander is into that arguably "elite" territory.

But yeah in general terms...a sort of minute-munching, mobile, deferential, complementary puck-moving defenceman who isn't necessarily a powerplay fixture, seems like an entirely plausible track. And would be a pretty decent result.

 

[BluesyShoes]

The standout attribute to me with Willander is his ability to support the play positionally. The intuition, skating and mobility gets him where he needs to be at the right time, and his game brings a lot of structure to the 5 man unit on the ice.

Last season at BU was an adjustment year, with playing behind Lane Hutson an odd job. BU played with IMO very poor structure and it made it not a great development environment for Willander. If he develops an offensive toolkit, I don't think it will come from taking risks with the puck; it will come from supporting his forwards in the offensive zone and working out various ways to work and create openings by distributing the puck and drawing defenders to different areas of the ice. I'd like him to be playing in a more structured, pro-style system like the Swedish national team played at the WJC, and getting offensive opportunities in those types of systems.

I'm a bit concerned Pandolfo (BU head coach) is going to thrust incoming rookie Cole Hutson into his departing brother's shoes. Playing second fiddle again offensively would be another mediocre development environment for Willander. I can see it though, as it would be a bit of a lazy albeit convenient coaching move to take another kick at the can with the same freewheeling system, swapping Lane Hutson and Macklin Celebrini out for Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman. In the games Lane was injured and Willander put in the driver's seat last year, I thought BU played a much more conservative and structured style of hockey and were better for it. I'd like to see more of that, so hopefully Willander gets to take the reigns, but when you have a very one dimensional offensive D like Lane or Cole Hutson on the roster, it is difficult to find them icetime beyond the high leverage offensive minutes, especially as rookies.

I think Willander's timeline to the NHL will be much more clear after the WJC next winter. I'd like to see him get to a level where he shows confidence and poise in the offensive zone before he graduates to the next level. I'm not sure he ever gets enough opportunity at BU to do so, so moving on to the AHL after his season might be best anyways. If that turns out to be the case, I'd be more inclined to see him spend significant time in the AHL to at least give him the opportunity to develop an offensive toolset, as I don't think he builds that without getting a lot minutes and reps in different offensive situations. I think the defensive side of his game will come easier, but he has shown flashes of offensive upside, and I'm of the opinion he just needs a lot of reps in a lower pressure environment to build up his intuition on that side of the rink. He is still relatively new and raw as a defenseman, and with playing at a high level, he has usually been behind more offensive specialists and has filled more defensive roles.

 

[biturbo19]

The standout attribute to me with Willander is his ability to support the play positionally. The intuition, skating and mobility gets him where he needs to be at the right time, and his game brings a lot of structure to the 5 man unit on the ice.

Last season at BU was an adjustment year, with playing behind Lane Hutson an odd job. BU played with IMO very poor structure and it made it not a great development environment for Willander. If he develops an offensive toolkit, I don't think it will come from taking risks with the puck; it will come from supporting his forwards in the offensive zone and working out various ways to work and create openings by distributing the puck and drawing defenders to different areas of the ice. I'd like him to be playing in a more structured, pro-style system like the Swedish national team played at the WJC, and getting offensive opportunities in those types of systems.

I'm a bit concerned Pandolfo (BU head coach) is going to thrust incoming rookie Cole Hutson into his departing brother's shoes. Playing second fiddle again offensively would be another mediocre development environment for Willander. I can see it though, as it would be a bit of a lazy albeit convenient coaching move to take another kick at the can with the same freewheeling system, swapping Lane Hutson and Macklin Celebrini out for Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman. In the games Lane was injured and Willander put in the driver's seat last year, I thought BU played a much more conservative and structured style of hockey and were better for it. I'd like to see more of that, so hopefully Willander gets to take the reigns, but when you have a very one dimensional offensive D like Lane or Cole Hutson on the roster, it is difficult to find them icetime beyond the high leverage offensive minutes, especially as rookies.

I think Willander's timeline to the NHL will be much more clear after the WJC next winter. I'd like to see him get to a level where he shows confidence and poise in the offensive zone before he graduates to the next level. I'm not sure he ever gets enough opportunity at BU to do so, so moving on to the AHL after his season might be best anyways. If that turns out to be the case, I'd be more inclined to see him spend significant time in the AHL to at least give him the opportunity to develop an offensive toolset, as I don't think he builds that without getting a lot minutes and reps in different offensive situations. I think the defensive side of his game will come easier, but he has shown flashes of offensive upside, and I'm of the opinion he just needs a lot of reps in a lower pressure environment to build up his intuition on that side of the rink. He is still relatively new and raw as a defenseman, and with playing at a high level, he has usually been behind more offensive specialists and has filled more defensive roles.

Yeah. I'm not really that deeply concerned about Willander developing his powerplay skillset per se. That's not entirely critical, and that's likely not going to be his role at the NHL level. But it would be an important step, just as a part of taking on more offensive responsibility and getting more comfortable and confident with that aspect of the game in general.

He's certainly got a good assortment of "tools" to be impactful offensively, even if that's in a more structured, positional, facilitating manner. He's got the skating, decent puckhandling skills, passing skills, a decent shot, and he does seem to have a natural bit of feel for space and evasion with the puck and finding soft spots without it as well (presumably carried over from his days as a Forward). It's just the overall toolbox to organize them in and use them all in a confident, coordinated fashion, that is still very much "in development". And one of the one real ways to hone those instincts for where the boundaries are, is to push them and experiment and learn from that in a lower pressure setting. Only gets harder, with less and less leash to "learn" the further you move up.


Going to be really interesting next season, to see just how BU handles that revolving door of endless Hutsons, and what that all means for how much extra responsibility to put on Willander, as well as what form that even takes on the ice in terms of role adjustment.

 

[BluesyShoes]

Yeah. I'm not really that deeply concerned about Willander developing his powerplay skillset per se. That's not entirely critical, and that's likely not going to be his role at the NHL level. But it would be an important step, just as a part of taking on more offensive responsibility and getting more comfortable and confident with that aspect of the game in general.

He's certainly got a good assortment of "tools" to be impactful offensively, even if that's in a more structured, positional, facilitating manner. He's got the skating, decent puckhandling skills, passing skills, a decent shot, and he does seem to have a natural bit of feel for space and evasion with the puck and finding soft spots without it as well (presumably carried over from his days as a Forward). It's just the overall toolbox to organize them in and use them all in a confident, coordinated fashion, that is still very much "in development". And one of the one real ways to hone those instincts for where the boundaries are, is to push them and experiment and learn from that in a lower pressure setting. Only gets harder, with less and less leash to "learn" the further you move up.


Going to be really interesting next season, to see just how BU handles that revolving door of endless Hutsons, and what that all means for how much extra responsibility to put on Willander, as well as what form that even takes on the ice in terms of role adjustment.

Well said, agreed.

 

[Bankerguy]

with his skating, size and compete level.... i really hope that he has the brain for good gap control. if he does, he will be an absolute menace from just inside his own blueline to the redline.

 

[IComeInPeace]

I wonder if Cole Hutson is given the #1 offensive role over Willander as bt19 suggests may happen above, would it be better for Willander to turn pro and develop under the watchful eye of our coaching staff at the pro level in Abbotsford???

…and just to clarify, he can turn pro and move to Abby at any point during this upcoming college season, correct?

 

[BluesyShoes]

I wonder if Cole Hutson is given the #1 offensive role over Willander as bt19 suggests may happen above, would it be better for Willander to turn pro and develop under the watchful eye of our coaching staff at the pro level in Abbotsford???

…and just to clarify, he can turn pro and move to Abby at any point during this upcoming college season, correct?

It is possible to turn pro, but given he'd have to drop out of college athletically and scholastically, I doubt we see that happening. I don't have a quote ready for you but I have the sense Willander values the education side of things for his life after/outside of hockey; I think he said as much in interviews when discussing his unconventional choice to leave Sweden for the NCAA.

If Cole (a LD) gets the offensive role, it probably means Willander (RD) is playing the support role beside him and taking on shutdown duties, similar to last season. By no means a complete waste of a year, and maybe more similar to the role he projects to in the NHL, but probably not the best for his development in terms of realizing his offensive upside.

 

[Vector]

I wonder if Cole Hutson is given the #1 offensive role over Willander as bt19 suggests may happen above, would it be better for Willander to turn pro and develop under the watchful eye of our coaching staff at the pro level in Abbotsford???

…and just to clarify, he can turn pro and move to Abby at any point during this upcoming college season, correct?

That would be weird. Lane Hutson was incredibly productive in the USHL while Cole Hutson has been good nowhere near his brother's level.

And yes, he can sign any time and go to Abbotsford. There are no restrictions there. I don't think that makes sense for his development given how crowded Abbotsford defence is looking.

 

[credulous]

That would be weird. Lane Hutson was incredibly productive in the USHL while Cole Hutson has been good nowhere near his brother's level.

And yes, he can sign any time and go to Abbotsford. There are no restrictions there. I don't think that makes sense for his development given how crowded Abbotsford defence is looking.

cole hutson is regarded as a better prospect than lane was at the same point, but that's largely down to the height difference

regardless, there's zero chance he won't be the top puck carrier/power play qb on BU. if he were 6'2 he would have been in the conversation with buium and levshyunov and everyone else as the best defender in the draft

 

[beachcomber]

Apparently Willander is up to 165 lbs now.

 

[IComeInPeace]

It is possible to turn pro, but given he'd have to drop out of college athletically and scholastically, I doubt we see that happening. I don't have a quote ready for you but I have the sense Willander values the education side of things for his life after/outside of hockey; I think he said as much in interviews when discussing his unconventional choice to leave Sweden for the NCAA.

If Cole (a LD) gets the offensive role, it probably means Willander (RD) is playing the support role beside him and taking on shutdown duties, similar to last season. By no means a complete waste of a year, and maybe more similar to the role he projects to in the NHL, but probably not the best for his development in terms of realizing his offensive upside.

While I do agree that it is more likely the role he plays at the NHL level (or the role we hope he can play) it still seems like the best development path for him would be to be the #1 ‘all situations’ guy.

I’d think they’d give him every opportunity to be that guy. Now, if he can’t take that opportunity and run with it, it’s on him.

…but I’d also think that if Hutson is kind of looked at by Pandolfo as the guy early on, and Willander doesn’t get a legit shot at that role, that would seem like it could potentially cause issues.

I had not read about the education at BU being a big deal to him. I had assumed he was making the move over to North America primarily for hockey and development reasons.

 

[Vector]

Apparently Willander is up to 165 lbs now.

He's literally 191lbs you dingus.

 

[Breakers]

Apparently Willander is up to 165 lbs now.

On that Pettersson diet of gucci and vegan Swedish meatballs

 

[Andy Dufresne]

What happened? He broke his jaw and got mono?
That's a rough summer!

 

[Vector]

On that Pettersson diet of gucci and vegan Swedish meatballs

What happened? He broke his jaw and got mono?
That's a rough summer!

He's making a bad joke you gullible geese!

 

[Bleach Clean]

The context is that this is a generational offensive defender who looks like he's going to be one of the top 5 skill defenders of all time.

A player this good, you'd expect to see insane Crosby/McDavid numbers at lower levels. Dominating WJCs.

His first year at Michigan, he slightly out-produced a nobody 6'3 defensive defender on his own team named Joseph Ceccini.

His second year at Michigan his numbers were very good and maybe 'elite' for NCAA but still not really eye-catching stuff. Again, marginally better than a guy named Bobby Nardella playing for Notre Dame in Hughes' conference with a similar low-scoring team.

And really did nothing at the WJCs.

This isn't the profile of a player who would be winning Norris Trophies and putting up 90-point seasons in the NHL 5 years later.

Hughes' profile is/was one you could expect an elite base of play if he was able to convert at the NHL level. He had the high IQ, very good numbers (PPG in D-1 USHL season + top3 in team scoring in Big-10 in draft season), weaker team, elite physical ability (skating) etc... to suggest an upper end conversion if he made it whereas other options (Dobson/Bouchard) traded that ceiling for more surety.

The numbers are part of that evaluation, not the determinant of that evaluation. I do find though that when these types hit their ceiling, they do so in a way that defies mental models. People acknowledge the unlikely probability of conversion, but don't readjust when they convert.

(All three of Bouchard, Dobson and Hughes are in the top15 Dmen in the NHL, so the strength of the class needs to be taken into account as well)

 

[VanJack]

Predicting a breakthrough season for Wilander at BU.....I think he's also still eligible for the WJHC. Then in the spring an ELC from the Canucks. Time to get him into pro hockey to see what they have.

 

[VIPettersson]

Hughes' profile is/was one you could expect an elite base of play if he was able to convert at the NHL level. This was in comparison to Bouchard and Dobson who were considered surer bets at the time. Hughes had the high IQ, very good numbers (PPG in D-1 USHL season + top3 in team scoring in Big-10 in draft season), weaker team, elite physical ability (skating) etc... to suggest an upper end conversion if he made it where as other options traded that ceiling for more surety.

The numbers are part of that evaluation, not the determinant of that evaluation.

No one could have reasonably expected the phenomenal player he ended up being with any certainty, however. But it speaks more to the quality of those three defenders as a whole, as they are now in multiple top10-15 lists. It's not just Hughes there... but he is the best of the trio.

Don't forget Dahlin was also in that draft and Hughes has seemingly surpassed him too.

 

[HairyKneel]

Don't forget Dahlin was also in that draft and Hughes has seemingly surpassed him too.

Or Heiskanen, Makar or Fox. That's a top 7 right there. Macavoy is no slouch either

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Apparently Willander is up to 165 lbs now.

Gonna need a bigger Willy to get into the Show.

 

[LordBacon]

Gonna need a bigger Willy to get into the Show.

it’s not the size that matters it’s how you use it.