I know I have brought this up before, but I don't think many GMs will trust the cap going up as forecasted after this season. The Geopolitical winds are starting to blow too strong against that type of economic optimism. This is a recent quote from the United Nations.
The world economy is at a precarious moment. Heightened trade tensions, along with policy uncertainty, have significantly weakened the global economic outlook for 2025. Higher tariffs—resulting in a significant increase in the effective tariff rate in the United States of America—are likely to strain global supply chains, drive up production costs and delay critical investment decisions, while also contributing to financial market volatility. Global economic growth is now projected to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024, and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast. The downward revisions in growth forecasts are broad-based, affecting both developed and developing economies. Weakening global trade growth and investment flows are compounding the slowdown. Many trade-reliant developing countries face mounting challenges from reduced exports, lower commodity prices, tighter financial conditions, and elevated debt burdens.
I've read a few opinion pieces that suggest we are quickly making our way to the economic hardships experienced during the COVID years. The bond markets are certainly waiving an economic distress red-flag.