To make the next step, what do we need?

[surixon]

@Daximus what are your thoughts on buying low on Dach if he's on the market. You would have seen him a lot in junior. Do you think he could fit our forecheck/cycle based offense if he could stay healthy and get back on track.

To me he seems he has the tools, size and above average speed to fit but I haven't watched him all that much at the NHL level.

 

[Daximus]

@Daximus what are your thoughts on buying low on Dach if he's on the market. You would have seen him a lot in junior. Do you think he could fit our forecheck/cycle based offense if he could stay healthy and get back on track.

To me he seems he has the tools, size and above average speed to fit but I haven't watched him all that much at the NHL level.

I haven't seen a tonne of him lately but his biggest issue seems to be staying healthy. As a by low guy for a 2C role I think we could definitely take a flyer on him and see if it works out. I wouldn't want to pay much for him at this point though. I was really high on him coming out of the Dub but he's had issues staying healthy which has definitely effected his development.

 

[raideralex99]

Hellebuyck faced ~22 shots/gp, one of the lowest of all time in the playoffs. being asked to make a key save during relatively short-lived breakdowns should be nothing insurmountable for an MVP-level goalie. there will be high-danger chances here and there, it's the Playoffs vs a top-16 team every other night. expecting to give up absolutely nothing from your opponent is just not going to happen at this stage. i'd actually say the some of the victories were really highlighted by v good shot suppression from the team (for instance: 2nd half of g1 vs STL, 3rd period+2OT g7 vs STL, 9 SOGs allowed through 2 periods g6 vs DAL). Overall, the Jets in terms of volume did not give up much. 2018-2022 Hellebuyck kills for ~22 SOG/gp

feel like the conversation of Fwd upgrades, while is still v relevant to this team and they needed extra scoring in Game 6, is starting to become an overall scapegoat for Hellebuyck's Playoffs now...... a 0.866 from a 0.925 goaltender is soooo awful, last 3-years he's at a 0.870. & also with how many back-breaking, momentum-killing softies he gives up also IMO plays an intangible effect. call it objectively - Stuart Skinner has been better in the Playoffs over the same time frame, that's the level of suck Hellebuyck has been at.

for comparison sake, this year team-shots for & sh% vs shots against & helle's sv%, standardizing Shots For/Against at per 60 b/c of the OTs.

View attachment 1041862

Heres the problem with comparing regular season stats with the playoffs stats.
Regular season half of those teams don’t make the playoffs and the schedule is also an advantage.
Come playoff time most teams in the playoffs have added better players at the TDL.
What does every player or coach say about scoring goals in the playoffs?
“It’s not going to be a pretty one … you have to get traffic to net take away the goalies eyes”.
Also the person keeping stats is a joke. I saw Helle make 4 saves in game 6 from a scramble in front of the net … Stars got credit for 2 shots lol.
The majority of the goals that were scored on Helle are the exact same goals that are being scored on Oettinger or Anderson or Bob.
Every single game I see top shelf glove side goals and defections but I’m constantly told Helle is the only goalie who can’t stop them.
A goalie flopping around and the puck hits him is not skill it’s lucky. A Jet player has an open net and misses but let’s blame Helle for the lost because he let a lot of goals in a previous series that the jets won … it makes no sense.
It’s a team game your goalie is only as good as your defence. If the defence can’t defend the front of the net your goalie has to have x-ray eyes or horseshoes to stop it.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Heres the problem with comparing regular season stats with the playoffs stats.
Regular season half of those teams don’t make the playoffs and the schedule is also an advantage.
Come playoff time most teams in the playoffs have added better players at the TDL.
What does every player or coach say about scoring goals in the playoffs?
“It’s not going to be a pretty one … you have to get traffic to net take away the goalies eyes”.
Also the person keeping stats is a joke. I saw Helle make 4 saves in game 6 from a scramble in front of the net … Stars got credit for 2 shots lol.
The majority of the goals that were scored on Helle are the exact same goals that are being scored on Oettinger or Anderson or Bob.
Every single game I see top shelf glove side goals and defections but I’m constantly told Helle is the only goalie who can’t stop them.
A goalie flopping around and the puck hits him is not skill it’s lucky. A Jet player has an open net and misses but let’s blame Helle for the lost because he let a lot of goals in a previous series that the jets won … it makes no sense.
It’s a team game your goalie is only as good as your defence. If the defence can’t defend the front of the net your goalie has to have x-ray eyes or horseshoes to stop it.

The best players always get roasted. If Toronto loses it’s on AM.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm probably in the minority, but I'm not sure they need to make substantive changes to take the next step. What they needed was Hellebuyck to match or outplay Oettinger and the rest of the lineup to be fully healthy, including 13, 27, 55 and 44.

Biggest risk is that they take a step back with Ehlers' departure.

I don't think it is realistic to expect full health in the PO, but less injury impact is not unreasonable.

We needed Helle to be better.
We need a better solution at 2C. Doesn't have to be crazy good, just better. I would like a more skilled version of Barron there. Someone who can add a little physicality to that otherwise small line.
We need to retain Ehlers. Otherwise we need to acquire a really good replacement, which is unlikely.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Jets don't need a big marquee FA ... remember Stastny was not a big marquee center at TDL.
If Ehlers doesn't sign I think Chevy makes a trade to get a 2C.
The board keeps mentioning how Chevy took Blake to the cleaners on the PLD trade when in fact thats the going rate ... a top 6 winger and 2 bottom 6 players who they were going to put on waivers to get under the SC.
I'm one of the few who has no problem losing Ehlers if he want more than $8M ... the Jets can get a decent center for $8M which would help more especially in the playoffs.

What decent C can the Jets get for 8 mil?
Not that 8 mil isn't enough. There are plenty of decent Cs making quite a bit less. But they are not available. None of those who are available will come here for 8 mil.

Brock Nelson might, but it would need to be for 6-7 years. He doesn't have near that time left in his game.

Sam Bennett? Nope. Not coming here, and getting more than 8 mil wherever he goes.

 

[winnipegger]

We don't need a huge addition to make the next step. The first round was very dramatic because we had historically bad goaltending. If helle plays like he did in the Dallas series, we don't lose our #1 players to various injuries, we don't face a streaking Rantanen, and play to regular season potential on special teams, we stand an excellent chance. You need some luck to win the cup. It is really important to the window to sign Ehlers hope he stays.

 

[Jack7222]

I don't think it is realistic to expect full health in the PO, but less injury impact is not unreasonable.

We needed Helle to be better.
We need a better solution at 2C. Doesn't have to be crazy good, just better. I would like a more skilled version of Barron there. Someone who can add a little physicality to that otherwise small line.
We need to retain Ehlers. Otherwise we need to acquire a really good replacement, which is unlikely.

The league needs to figure out what the hell it's doing and decide what a penalty is in the playoffs and then penalize that objectively. This nonsense about 'playoff hockey' and then game management on top of it just allows whatever team is willing to be dirtiest (see: Panthers) a massive advantage, it's completely stupid.

 

[raideralex99]

What decent C can the Jets get for 8 mil?
Not that 8 mil isn't enough. There are plenty of decent Cs making quite a bit less. But they are not available. None of those who are available will come here for 8 mil.

Brock Nelson might, but it would need to be for 6-7 years. He doesn't have near that time left in his game.

Sam Bennett? Nope. Not coming here, and getting more than 8 mil wherever he goes.

I’m 99% sure no top FA center is signing with the Jets but those middle FA centers who might turn out if they are on a better team is what I’m hoping for.
If not Chevy is going to have to give up a lot …. picks/prospects or bottom 6 for a top center.
3 or 4 players for a top center or at least 2/3 for a decent one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Should we give Barron a shot? Seems like a low cost option to at least try.

I call this the “rare earth minerals” expansion draft strategy and this is where I would like to see the Jets focus WAY more energy. Some examples:

William Karlsson buried for three season in Columbus putting up about 25 points a season then at 24 he gets taken by Vegas in the expansion draft. They put him on the top line and top PP unit and he puts up 78 points in 82 games as their #1 centre. He just needed to be slotted right, and play with good players to produce.

Chandler Stephenson, modest numbers in juniors, modest numbers in the AHL (probably not on the top line), 4th line dud in Washington, Vegas trades for him, by his second season in Vegas his production improves and by season 3 and as a 27 year old he finally becomes a 64 point a season player and key asset in their top 6. He has remained productive since because he finally got moved into the top 6 full time.

Carter Vernaeghe was drafted by Toronto and buried in the AHL until he was in his mid 20’s. Finally gets a cup of coffee in Tampa on the 4th line when he is 24. Traded to Florida and instantly becomes a 50 point player, then grew into a guy that put up over 70 points two seasons in a row and more importantly he has become a PPG player in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons.

Obviously this level of player would not have any form of movement protection and in most cases they are relatively cheap to acquire in trades because they were underutilized on the team that traded them (or didn’t protect them in the expansion draft).

I have been jumping up and down yelling from the rooftop that this is the way. The Jets currently have vacancies or need for upgrades in our top 6 at center and on the right wing (If Ehlers leaves). Surely there are players being held back that can produce 50-60 points if given the shot to move into the high rent district and play with Perfetti we just need to focus on identifying them and trading for them.

I would like to see this become a main focus for our organization and this is how I would spend our draft capital in trades. Honestly we have done this to shore up our D core, Dillon (not cheap), and DeMelo (really cheap), but we have not done it to fill top 6 production voids.

This is the area where we can’t be blocked by players not wanting to come here. Beggars can’t be choosers and this is the type of player that will appreciate the chance to play up the line up and earn bigger pay days. It’s also pretty low risk, low cost, if they fail to make the leap they can always remain bottom six asset and they can always be sold as rentals at the deadline to recoup.

Rental deadline is expensive and short lived. Use those same draft capital assets on the rare earth mining and we won’t need rentals to plug holes at the deadline. Plug the holes in the off season and don’t be afraid to churn until we find the gems. BETTER ASSET MANAGMENT please.

"Rental deadline is expensive and short lived. Use those same draft capital assets on the rare earth mining and we won’t need rentals to plug holes at the deadline. Plug the holes in the off season and don’t be afraid to churn until we find the gems. BETTER ASSET MANAGMENT please."
^This Xn

I've been arguing this for 10 years!
Use those same assets when they are at their max value instead of the other way around. The off-season is THE TIME TO BUILD your roster.

Your rare earth mining is certainly one possible source of improvement. It might require an improvement/expansion of our NHL scouting. Carefully chosen reclamation projects might be another. That one can be risky, that's why I say carefully chosen. Another can be simply identifying the players we need and then pursuing them before they get trade protection. Offer to overpay if necessary to spring him loose once you are sure you have identified your man.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The league needs to figure out what the hell it's doing and decide what a penalty is in the playoffs and then penalize that objectively. This nonsense about 'playoff hockey' and then game management on top of it just allows whatever team is willing to be dirtiest (see: Panthers) a massive advantage, it's completely stupid.

I've been hearing this for so long I have given up. The NHL would rather sell the violence than sell its talented star athletes. Referees don't want to be seen overly influencing outcomes. In trying so hard to avoid that, they do the very thing they are trying to avoid - but they think it is invisible.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’m 99% sure no top FA center is signing with the Jets but those middle FA centers who might turn out if they are on a better team is what I’m hoping for.
If not Chevy is going to have to give up a lot …. picks/prospects or bottom 6 for a top center.
3 or 4 players for a top center or at least 2/3 for a decent one.

Sure, don't exactly disagree. But who are these middle FA Cs? Will we have to pay them like top talent to get them here?

I would rather pay the trade price for a good player in his mid 20s who we are going to have long term than keep trying to make-do with sub par placeholders or over the hill players looking for retirement contracts.

Whatever path Chevy chooses we know it will not be easy. I want a real long term solution though.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

The Jets don't need a big marquee FA ... remember Stastny was not a big marquee center at TDL.
If Ehlers doesn't sign I think Chevy makes a trade to get a 2C.
The board keeps mentioning how Chevy took Blake to the cleaners on the PLD trade when in fact thats the going rate ... a top 6 winger and 2 bottom 6 players who they were going to put on waivers to get under the SC.
I'm one of the few who has no problem losing Ehlers if he want more than $8M ... the Jets can get a decent center for $8M which would help more especially in the playoffs.

Stastny was a marquee 2nd line centre at the trade deadline and he did live up to the hype. One of the few Chevy in-season trades that actually worked out in terms of value.

Stastny never re-signed with the Jets as a free agent though - he want to Vegas. The Jets have never signed a good centre to a long-term contract extension, whether by free agency or trading for a player with a year or two of control left. No reason to believe that will change now.

 

[Jets]

Stastny was a marquee 2nd line centre at the trade deadline and he did live up to the hype. One of the few Chevy in-season trades that actually worked out in terms of value.

Stastny never re-signed with the Jets as a free agent though - he want to Vegas. The Jets have never signed a good centre to a long-term contract extension, whether by free agency or trading for a player with a year or two of control left. No reason to believe that will change now.

At the time, Olli Jokinen was one of the best FA Cs available and signed here for what was also at the time a fairly large caphit.

But I 100% agree, no top free agent you'd really want to have as a great 2C would have Winnipeg as even their 5th choice.