Confirmed with Link: Tim Burke promoted to Assistant GM DWJR to Dir. of Scouting

[Sharksrule04]

You can fill out your NHL lineup for cheap via free agency, trades and even the waiver wire. Wasting one of your few precious draft picks on a player who doesn't have the highest likelihood among those still on the board of becoming a top six forward, top four defenseman or starting goaltender is asinine. The Sharks have done this over and over again under Tim Burke. Hence why he no longer has a job in scouting.

So Doug Wilson trading spare parts for Joe Thornton 13 years ago means he can pull off a similar trade again and therefore the Sharks don't need to bother drafting skill players? Cool, good to know.

Yes, it's so easy to fill out your lineup via free agency for cheap. Only 30 other teams are trying to do the same thing. I seem to remember people complaining about Boedker, Martin, Karlsson and Ward over the last few seasons, all of which are guys we filled the lineup with for free and relatively cheap. This isn't NHL'18, the Sharks can't just sign anyone they want.

Which first round draft picks didn't have top 6/4 upside at the time they were picked? I know who you're going to list and I can already tell you that you're wrong.

That's one scenario how about Tavares to Toronto or the soon to be Karlsson to ______. Or Seguin to Dallas. It happens, stop pretending it doesn't.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm alright with Burke's change in position. I think it's long been time for a change in outlook on how we draft. I'm not cool with Wilson Jr. getting that spot at all. I don't care how intelligent or how much of a fit his drafting ideology may be, I'm not a supporter of nepotism and a continuation of the old boys club that has been going on.

 

[OrrNumber4]

You’re not understanding. I deliberately excluded Tampa’s top-10 picks because you had gone and complained that Tampa had such better draft positions than we have had.

Even outside of that, I think Tampa had a better draft position.

“Except for a guy who scored 100 points this year and another who scored 43 goals, there isn’t much of a difference”. Do you realize how insane that sounds? That’s like saying, “well, if you exclude the Joe Thornton trade and the Brent Burns trade, Doug Wilson isn’t anything special in terms of trading ability”.

Karlsson and Kucherov are on different teams.

You can’t call Nieto a solid third liner and then call Carpenter a fringe fourth liner. Nieto scored 26 points in 74 games this year. Carpenter scored 19 in 64, and a lot of those games were when the Sharks were constantly benching him. At the end of the day, both were waived from the Sharks and went on to show that they were quality players elsewhere. I don’t see a difference.

Fair enough. Nieto has a longer sample size.

So we’re excluding top-10 picks and Tampa still has 40% more picks? I somehow doubt that. Moreover, you can’t weight all picks the same. If you removed Tampa’s top-10 picks over the last decade, I would bet the number of first round picks they’ve had is comparable to how many we’ve had.

That is a good point. Over the last decade, they are even on first-round picks (7 each) outside of the top-10. But Tampa Bay still had 4 more 2nd-round picks.

Let us try and empiricize this. Using the calculated draft pick values, and omitting the value of top-5 draft picks (in order to capture Meier on SJ's side), Tampa Bay has an aggregate value of 13,106 between 2009 and 2018, compared to 10,253 for the Sharks. If you limit the numbers to 2009-2015, you get 9,509 for Tampa Bay and 7,871 for the Sharks.

So using the above thought experiment of swapping the drafted players, there is about a 20% chance that you don't get the selected player.

At the end of the day, yes. I would trade Hertl and Meier for Kucherov, Coyle for Point, Ryan and DeMelo for Johnson and Namestnikov, Labanc for Vasilevsky, Tierney for Palat. Without question.

Johnson was not drafted by TBL. IIRC, he was undrafted.

Kucherov-Thornton-Pavelski
Palat-Couture-Point
Kane-Johnson-Namestnikov

Vasilevsky in net.

What would the defense be?

After all, with no Coyle, no Burns in this situation.

Let us posit something like this, where the Sharks signed some UFA defenseman:

Kucherov-Thornton-Pavelski
Palat-Couture-Point
Kane-Namestnikov-Donskoi
Sorensen-Karlsson-Goodrow
Radil-Suomela

Vlasic-Braun
De Haan-Heed
Dillon-Wood
Simek

Vasilevskiy
Dell

I think that is a less competitive roster than the one the Sharks currently have. It is undoubtedly stronger up front but lacks any superstars at the major positions. I'd say you have about 6 million in cap space to play with (but the current Sharks's roster has about that much). Moreover, assuming that the Sharks would have 8 million in space for 2020, they would have to fit in new raises to Kucherov and Point, not to mention Vasilevskiy in another year.

 

[Mattb124]

You can fill out your NHL lineup for cheap via free agency, trades and even the waiver wire. Wasting one of your few precious draft picks on a player who doesn't have the highest likelihood among those still on the board of becoming a top six forward, top four defenseman or starting goaltender is asinine. The Sharks have done this over and over again under Tim Burke. Hence why he no longer has a job in scouting.

So Doug Wilson trading spare parts for Joe Thornton 13 years ago means he can pull off a similar trade again and therefore the Sharks don't need to bother drafting skill players? Cool, good to know.

Brent Burns says hi.

There is a correlation between cup wins and homegrown talent, so filling a roster through free agency is not the panacea some pretend it to be.

 

[hockeyball]

Brent Burns says hi.

There is a correlation between cup wins and homegrown talent, so filling a roster through free agency is not the panacea some pretend it to be.

But it is the placebo we pretend it to be. Or, don't pretend it to be? If we pretend a placebo is working, then is it really a placebo? What was I saying?

 

[Church Hill]

I'm alright with Burke's change in position. I think it's long been time for a change in outlook on how we draft. I'm not cool with Wilson Jr. getting that spot at all. I don't care how intelligent or how much of a fit his drafting ideology may be, I'm not a supporter of nepotism and a continuation of the old boys club that has been going on.

How do you know he's not the best available person for the job?

Oh... you don't know. I see.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How do you know he's not the best available person for the job?

Oh... you don't know. I see.

It wouldn't matter if he's the best available person for the job. It's not right regardless.

 

[LA Shark]

It wouldn't matter if he's the best available person for the job. It's not right regardless.

So are you saying that if he was the best available candidate for the job, he should not be offered due solely to the fact he is DW's son? The best qualified candidate should get the job, regardless of who their father is.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So are you saying that if he was the best available candidate for the job, he should not be offered due solely to the fact he is DW's son? The best qualified candidate should get the job, regardless of who their father is.

No he shouldn't from an ethical perspective and no he shouldn't from a business perspective. Being the best available candidate for the job isn't the only thing to look at. There is plenty of evidence that shows morale dropping when nepotism is in practice.

 

[hockeyball]

No he shouldn't from an ethical perspective and no he shouldn't from a business perspective. Being the best available candidate for the job isn't the only thing to look at. There is plenty of evidence that shows morale dropping when nepotism is in practice.

I agree, I am not a fan of this move. I've encountered similar situations over and over again in the workplace and it almost never ends well, no matter if the person is qualified or not. It's one thing to hire your kid to an entry level job where you work, it's another to promote them to a supervisory position, even if they deserve it.

 

[Jaleel619]

I think its fine. I like the idea of going for high reward players when the draft is a gamble anyways. In any other business I agree nepotism doesn't work well, but this is hockey. He was a hockey player, spent 4 years as a scout analyst. Its not that big of a deal. This is far from old boys club, the Edmonton oilers are plagued with that.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think its fine. I like the idea of going for high reward players when the draft is a gamble anyways. In any other business I agree nepotism doesn't work well, but this is hockey. He was a hockey player, spent 4 years as a scout analyst. Its not that big of a deal. This is far from old boys club, the Edmonton oilers are plagued with that.

Hockey culture in general is old boys club. Don't pretend like this team is any different when examples are staring at you straight in your face. I'm still going to love and follow the team regardless but I'm not going to ignore stuff like this.

 

[Jaleel619]

You hate everything.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah and you think the Sharks do no wrong. I'm sorry I'm not a boot licker.

 

[Jaleel619]

The harmonious night enlists the move.

 

[Maladroit]

Yes, it's so easy to fill out your lineup via free agency for cheap. Only 30 other teams are trying to do the same thing. I seem to remember people complaining about Boedker, Martin, Karlsson and Ward over the last few seasons, all of which are guys we filled the lineup with for free and relatively cheap. This isn't NHL'18, the Sharks can't just sign anyone they want.

Which first round draft picks didn't have top 6/4 upside at the time they were picked? I know who you're going to list and I can already tell you that you're wrong.

That's one scenario how about Tavares to Toronto or the soon to be Karlsson to ______. Or Seguin to Dallas. It happens, stop pretending it doesn't.

Who said that the only way to fill out your lineup in free agency is by signing worthless players like Mikkel Boedker to terrible contracts? Look at what players like Tyler Ennis, Anthony Duclair, Kyle Brodziak, Nic Dowd, Tim Schaller, Tom Kuhnackl, Thomas Hickey, Nick Holden, Cody Goloubef, Fredrik Claesson, etc. signed for as UFAs this summer. It's extremely easy to find useful third/fourth liners and third pairing defensemen in the bargain bin. You've still got players like Patrick Maroon, Nick Shore, Jannik Hansen, Matt Read, Shawn Matthias, Mark Letestu, Brandon Davidson, Mark Fayne, Dan Hamhuis and other decent depth players who remain unsigned and can likely be had for cheap on a one-year deal.

Drafting players who don't have star upside is just flushing your picks down the toilet. There is almost no marginal utility to having a player like that on an ELC since you can sign his older (and likely better) equivalent on the free agent market for roughly the same cap hit as an ELC. Meier and Mueller's upside was nowhere near as high as Barzal/Rantanen/Connor or Theodore/Mantha/Shinkaruk (obviously a bust but I'm fine with taking players like Shinkaruk or Goldobin who don't pan out because it's indicative of a process that will accrue the most talent in the long run) at the time of those respective drafts.

Any GM who banks on superstar talent falling into his lap via a miracle trade or once-in-a-decade free agent signing needs to be fired immediately. That's not a sustainable way to build a team. These players are acquired through the entry draft.

I honestly don't understand the mentality of Sharks fans who are still defending the decision to pass up on a franchise center in Barzal to pick Timo Meier. It was a catastrophic and easily avoidable mistake and now Burke has mercifully paid the price for it with his job. It's time for everyone else to accept that they were wrong too.

 

[Maladroit]

If Barzal does turn out to be a franchise-caliber center, it will be one of the few times in NHL history that such a player was drafted outside of the top-5 in the draft. I would agree that you will "never" land a Barzal-like player outside of the draft (except for Niedermayer, Pronger, Tavares, Thornton, Seguin, Hall, Parise, Suter, Burns, apparently Erik Karlsson, etc.) in the same way that you will "never" land a Barzal-like player outside of the top-10 in a draft (except for Kopitar, Subban, Karlsson, Giroux, Tarasenko, Barzal, etc.).

Put another way, hanging your hopes on drafting a superstar player (especially a forward) outside of the top-5 in a draft is a terrible strategy.

Franchise might be pushing it but there's at least one star center drafted outside the top five in nearly every draft - Barzal in 2015, Larkin and Point in 2014, Horvat in 2013, Teravainen in 2012, Scheifele, Couturier and Trocheck in 2011, Kuznetsov in 2010, O'Reilly in 2009...I could keep going here but I think you get the point that it's a hell of a lot more common to draft a #1 center outside the top five than to find a #1 center via trade.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Even if we aren't getting a star #1C in the draft, missing on other solid players that may be more like strong #2C or top 3D ect can hurt just as bad. You need those players to package with draft picks to trade for the game breakers

 

[Sharksrule04]

I honestly don't understand the mentality of Sharks fans who are still defending the decision to pass up on a franchise center in Barzal to pick Timo Meier. It was a catastrophic and easily avoidable mistake and now Burke has mercifully paid the price for it with his job. It's time for everyone else to accept that they were wrong too.

The mentality is that you want to pat yourself on the back for thinking you 100% knew he'd be a star when in actuality people like you claim to know these types of things all the time and are wrong more often than you are right. However the one time you are right you then boast about how it was soooo obvious and the whole staff needs to be fired. Then when it doesn't work out (Goldobin) fans start blaming it on the coaches saying they don't understand NHL talent.

If it was so obvious Barzal was going to be a franchise center, he would have gone 2nd overall in that draft. If it was so obvious he was going to be an 80+ point player already he wouldn't have been passed by 10+ teams. It wasn't obvious, it wasn't even close to obvious which is why he went where he went. Just because you maybe watched a few of his games prior to being drafted and read a few magazines doesn't make you Hockey-Nostradamus.

I've said dozens of times before that I wanted Barzal and I said it back on draft day, but I don't need some sort of medal for that. These decisions are made all the time in hockey. Some work out, some others don't. People with your mentality tend to only focus on the negative results which is 100% obvious by your posts on all Sharks doings. I acknowledge the bad as well as the good and with our franchise the good outweighs the bad. The Sharks are one of the better teams at finding late round talents and producing NHL players in general which considering their typical draft position and lack of many extra picks is pretty impressive.

This whole concept that the point of the NHL draft is to find superstars is so simplified/stupid and I'm really not sure where it came from (probably the massive hoard of hindsight "I'm right" hockey fans). The point of the NHL draft is to find players who will potentially help your team in the future whether it is via playing or as a trading chip. If you're drafting in the top 2-3 spots it's fair to expect/hope your player to turn into an all-star. If not the stats show that you're lucky to get a top 6F/4D. Stop acting like getting a 2nd liner in the 20's is a horrible thing. You have unrealistic expectations based on the few scenario's where the mid to late round picks became top 3F/2D as opposed to the very frequent scenario's where players after the first few picks rarely become more than complimentary talent.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I am going to over simplify the question of Burke's success and ask this:

1. What are the best 2 players for every position that Burke has drafted in San Jose? Can we consider any of the players even close to being elite?
2. We have been blaming our lack of success in the playoffs and concern for the future both based on the lack of elite talent in our roster and prospect pool. Do we seriously expect to be able to fill those slots with Burke at the helm (scouting)?

I think the state of the team is the same as our drafting has been with Burke. Above-average to good. We get NHL players the same way we make the playoffs.

 

[Maladroit]

The mentality is that you want to pat yourself on the back for thinking you 100% knew he'd be a star when in actuality people like you claim to know these types of things all the time and are wrong more often than you are right. However the one time you are right you then boast about how it was soooo obvious and the whole staff needs to be fired. Then when it doesn't work out (Goldobin) fans start blaming it on the coaches saying they don't understand NHL talent.

If it was so obvious Barzal was going to be a franchise center, he would have gone 2nd overall in that draft. If it was so obvious he was going to be an 80+ point player already he wouldn't have been passed by 10+ teams. It wasn't obvious, it wasn't even close to obvious which is why he went where he went. Just because you maybe watched a few of his games prior to being drafted and read a few magazines doesn't make you Hockey-Nostradamus.

I've said dozens of times before that I wanted Barzal and I said it back on draft day, but I don't need some sort of medal for that. These decisions are made all the time in hockey. Some work out, some others don't. People with your mentality tend to only focus on the negative results which is 100% obvious by your posts on all Sharks doings. I acknowledge the bad as well as the good and with our franchise the good outweighs the bad. The Sharks are one of the better teams at finding late round talents and producing NHL players in general which considering their typical draft position and lack of many extra picks is pretty impressive.

This whole concept that the point of the NHL draft is to find superstars is so simplified/stupid and I'm really not sure where it came from (probably the massive hoard of hindsight "I'm right" hockey fans). The point of the NHL draft is to find players who will potentially help your team in the future whether it is via playing or as a trading chip. If you're drafting in the top 2-3 spots it's fair to expect/hope your player to turn into an all-star. If not the stats show that you're lucky to get a top 6F/4D. Stop acting like getting a 2nd liner in the 20's is a horrible thing. You have unrealistic expectations based on the few scenario's where the mid to late round picks became top 3F/2D as opposed to the very frequent scenario's where players after the first few picks rarely become more than complimentary talent.

When have I complained about the Sharks picking a second liner in the 20s? You're completely misrepresenting my position. I never said the Sharks should be drafting a superstar with every draft pick. I said the only rational course of action is to take the player with the highest upside, the highest potential of becoming a star, with every single pick. Hertl might not be a star but that was obviously a terrific pick because they went for upside. I'm perfectly fine with busts like Goldobin or Lukas Kaspar, you live with misses like that because the process that leads to selecting those players will ensure the maximum possible success in the long run. I'm not okay with Mueller, Meier or Norris.

Barzal is beating a dead horse at this point but Rantanen and Connor were so obviously more impressive and skilled prospects than Timo Meier at the time. Any of these three players would have been a defensible selection at 9th overall. Meier was completely indefensible. We all had to sit through a dogshit 2014-15 season and the reward at the end was a 2nd/3rd liner instead of any of three star first line talents. That should make everyone mad.

The good absolutely outweighs the bad with the Sharks organization as a whole. I think Doug Wilson, despite his mistakes, has done a terrific job overall and is at worst a top 5 GM in the league. Where the bad outweighs the good is in our drafting record and complete inability to find first line/first pairing caliber talent for two decades. Burke had to go. If the 2018 draft is anything to go by I'm optimistic that DWJR will fare much better on draft day.

 

[Used As A Shield]

...Burke had to go.

Please take Sommer with him, pleeease.

 

[Alaskanice]

I’m glad we picked Meier. He fits this team very well.
Would Barzal? Who can know. He might still be down if we picked him. He certainly hasn’t brought the Islanders to the promise land. Heck, neither did Tavares.
Having star players doesn’t make one a better team. Look north at the Oilers.
Now, if these players become what they should ,(see Toronto) they’re going to be in a world of hurt when their big contracts come up.
Maybe I’m wrong in this thinking but I believe the Sharks are doing a fabulous job.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I’m glad we picked Meier. He fits this team very well.
Would Barzal? Who can know. He might still be down if we picked him. He certainly hasn’t brought the Islanders to the promise land. Heck, neither did Tavares.
Having star players doesn’t make one a better team. Look north at the Oilers.
Now, if these players become what they should ,(see Toronto) they’re going to be in a world of hurt when their big contracts come up.
Maybe I’m wrong in this thinking but I believe the Sharks are doing a fabulous job.

Meier has been fine. Not my personal choice but he's been fine and it's a good pick. As for Barzal, yes he would. What evidence is there to suggest that he wouldn't? Him not taking the Islanders to the promised land isn't some indicator of that ability. That really has nothing to do with it. If we had selected Barzal, we would've already traded Tierney. Whether one finds that as good or bad is up to them but the team would have made room for him no different than they made room for Meier when it was convenient for them to do so. As for the star players comment, how does one look north at the Oilers? They're not a star-laden team. They have one star in McDavid and a lesser star in Draisaitl...that's it. The Sharks have done a fabulous job if your expectations are to just make the playoffs. If you have higher expectations and desires for your team than that then they haven't delivered.

 

[Sharksrule04]

When have I complained about the Sharks picking a second liner in the 20s? You're completely misrepresenting my position. I never said the Sharks should be drafting a superstar with every draft pick. I said the only rational course of action is to take the player with the highest upside, the highest potential of becoming a star, with every single pick. Hertl might not be a star but that was obviously a terrific pick because they went for upside. I'm perfectly fine with busts like Goldobin or Lukas Kaspar, you live with misses like that because the process that leads to selecting those players will ensure the maximum possible success in the long run. I'm not okay with Mueller, Meier or Norris.

Barzal is beating a dead horse at this point but Rantanen and Connor were so obviously more impressive and skilled prospects than Timo Meier at the time. Any of these three players would have been a defensible selection at 9th overall. Meier was completely indefensible. We all had to sit through a dog**** 2014-15 season and the reward at the end was a 2nd/3rd liner instead of any of three star first line talents. That should make everyone mad.

The good absolutely outweighs the bad with the Sharks organization as a whole. I think Doug Wilson, despite his mistakes, has done a terrific job overall and is at worst a top 5 GM in the league. Where the bad outweighs the good is in our drafting record and complete inability to find first line/first pairing caliber talent for two decades. Burke had to go. If the 2018 draft is anything to go by I'm optimistic that DWJR will fare much better on draft day.

I agree with some of the above. I don't think Meier is a bust nor would I classify Norris as one yet. Meier is already a top 6 talent and could turn into a 30/30 player. Just because some better players were drafted after him doesn't make him a bust. Mueller was an awful awful pick at the time and in hindsight. Norris could develop into a 2nd liner. Would I bet money on it, no. I do think it's early to call him a bust though. The next 2 years will tell us what his real upside is.

I often got frustrated with Burke's drafting strategy but I also can't fault him too much. The Sharks have not been a team to stockpile picks so for the most part they're usually missing a first or missing a 2nd rounder (some draft's both). I can understand Burke or Wilson (we don't really know who has the final word) pushing to get the player who they see as having a high floor with maybe a lower ceiling and less risk. It's not the sexy decision on draft day but I personally get way more frustrated when a first round pick doesn't even turn into an NHL contributor than I do picking a guy like Meier who is a good NHL player over a risky player who ends up being a star. I think that's more of a wasted pick.