Thoughts on the Calgary Flames?

[Da McBomb]

The Flames are in a better position to do it than most teams though. Ferland is already showing increased production with more opportunity. Bennett has high end talent. And Brouwer, up until this year, was very consistent.

You're also ignoring Versteeg, who put up 37 point in 69 games. The Flames also get well above average scoring from their d-men. The 3M line is also much better than "good". It's one of the highest scoring non-first lines in the league.

So basically, already the Flames have good depth and have the potential for elite depth. I was responding to posters stating that the Flames have poor depth, which simply is not true.

How are Ferland, Bennett, and Versteeg any better than similar depth players on any other team? Almost every team has similar players to these guys yet you don't see anyone saying their depth is 'elite' or that they're in a ' better position to do it than most teams'.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Such unintelligent comments like this. Maybe having Lrsson, A healthy Klefbom, and a better back end helped?

The laziest and dumbest arguments are the one's that say "Derp you are a lotery team without McDavid"

Drai must be garbage too.

Carry on

Actually if you read the comment I said you were bottom 10 not lottery team... I said in the past without McDavid you were a lottery team.


Larsson klef and drai are okay but really not going to be battling for a playoff spot.

 

[Cawz]

Everything else to go right? A tier below?

The Oilers finished with three (3) more wins than the Flames last year, and that was with an abysmal start to the season.

I would expect the two teams to be neck and neck throughout the year. It's not like the Oilers upgraded anything significantly this off season to justify the "not in the same tier" comment. They are both up and coming teams.

The Flames are a good team and I would bet that the Oilers and Flames will be the favorites to be #1 and #2 in the Pacific, maybe not next year, but the following year going forward.

But as per your wins quote, the Flames had 32 regulation wins, 5 behind the Oilers, and good for 18th in the league (ie, bottom 40% of the league). They were really good at the skills competition 3on3 and shootout.

 

[HighLifeMan]

I don't see how scoring goals will be an issue for this team.

Calgary as a whole under performed last season based on pure goalscoring and still maintained league average.

Gaudreau - Career high 30 goals - Scored 18
Monahan - Career high 31 goals - Scored 27
Bennett - Career high 18 goals - Scored 13
Brouwer - Career high 25 goals - scored 13
Mark Giordano - Career high 21 goals - Scored 12
TJ Brodie - Career high 11 goals - scored 6

That's 25 goals lost alone from the previous season from three core pieces of this roster in Gaudreau, Bennett and Giordano.

Compare that to the players who managed new career highs

Dougie Hamilton - Scored 13 goals - Previous career high was 12
Mikael Backlund - Scored 22 goals - Previous career high was 21
Michael Ferland - Scored 15 goals - Previous career high was 4


Michael Ferland was literally the only player to have "broke out" and or increased his goal production significantly, everyone else either hovered at their career average or were below it. This is the same young player who will be on our top line so a reduction in production should not be expected. You then have the complimentary pieces in Frolik and Versteeg who both played roughly at there career averages and should be a safe bet to do again. And lastly there is Matt Tkachuk who if I were a betting man would increase on his last seasons total of 13 goals.

 

[DomBarr]

I see a wildcard challenging team as is...however IF

Smith delivers above average goaltending
Hamonic/Brodie work well together
Bennetts offensive game takes a leap forward showing why he was selected 4th OA and was ranked as high as 1st

then they could challenge for the division lead. These are not long shot ifs...Smith was above average last year, Brodie has shown that when he is working well with his partner he is tough to stop, and Bennett has shown progress in gaining the coaches trust which is needed to gain better minutes and linemates.

 

[CaptainCrunch67]

2nd in the Pacific and a 2 round playoff team.

 

[blankall]

How are Ferland, Bennett, and Versteeg any better than similar depth players on any other team? Almost every team has similar players to these guys yet you don't see anyone saying their depth is 'elite' or that they're in a ' better position to do it than most teams'.

What other teams have a 2nd line like Backlund, Frolik, and Tkachuk, and then have even more players like Ferland and Versteeg. I'm sure there are other teams, but the Flames are already well above average when it comes to "depth". The Flames are not a team with poor depth by any means, and have the potential to be one of the top teams in terms of scoring depth.

 

[Da McBomb]

What other teams have a 2nd line like Backlund, Frolik, and Tkachuk, and then have even more players like Ferland and Versteeg. I'm sure there are other teams, but the Flames are already well above average when it comes to "depth". The Flames are not a team with poor depth by any means, and have the potential to be one of the top teams in terms of scoring depth.

As many have said, the Flames have a pretty good first line and a good second line. After that.. there is nothing special about their 3rd and 4th lines to deem their team depth as elite or top of the league. Players like Ferland and Versteeg are nothing special.

 

[Aceboogie]

What other teams have a 2nd line like Backlund, Frolik, and Tkachuk, and then have even more players like Ferland and Versteeg. I'm sure there are other teams, but the Flames are already well above average when it comes to "depth". The Flames are not a team with poor depth by any means, and have the potential to be one of the top teams in terms of scoring depth.

Ferland scored 25 points last year, in 2016/17- 232 forwards scored 25 points. 25 points is the definition of an average depth player. He is a Kassian level player

Versteeg is actually the gem of that group of players with a whopping 37 points which would put him with the 155 other forwards capable of scoring 37 points. I do actually think 37 points is a good depth player and if you have 4 of these guys you are elite. Unfortunately, Flames have 3 25 point players and 1 37 point player on what is likely a career year being nearly out of the door in the NHL

Just for comparison, since Flames fans love to say how horrible Oilers depth is. Oilers have Letestu (35), Kassian (24) and Cagguila (prorated 25 over a full year). And as someone else pointed out, their depth actually outscored Calgarys. So not to turn this into a Flames vs Oilers thread but this should show you the type of quality of depth your looking at. If you think one teams depth is elite and best in the league and the others is poor, I dunno what to tell you

 

[Aceboogie]

I don't see how scoring goals will be an issue for this team.

Calgary as a whole under performed last season based on pure goalscoring and still maintained league average.

Gaudreau - Career high 30 goals - Scored 18
Monahan - Career high 31 goals - Scored 27
Bennett - Career high 18 goals - Scored 13
Brouwer - Career high 25 goals - scored 13
Mark Giordano - Career high 21 goals - Scored 12
TJ Brodie - Career high 11 goals - scored 6

That's 25 goals lost alone from the previous season from three core pieces of this roster in Gaudreau, Bennett and Giordano.

Compare that to the players who managed new career highs

Dougie Hamilton - Scored 13 goals - Previous career high was 12
Mikael Backlund - Scored 22 goals - Previous career high was 21
Michael Ferland - Scored 15 goals - Previous career high was 4


Michael Ferland was literally the only player to have "broke out" and or increased his goal production significantly, everyone else either hovered at their career average or were below it. This is the same young player who will be on our top line so a reduction in production should not be expected. You then have the complimentary pieces in Frolik and Versteeg who both played roughly at there career averages and should be a safe bet to do again. And lastly there is Matt Tkachuk who if I were a betting man would increase on his last seasons total of 13 goals.

Its not a under performance if you dont score at you career high in goals. Thats why its literally called a career high. There is like 0% chance more than 3 players (especially in top 6) will hit their career highs all in the same season

For reference- Career AVERAGES:

Monahan: 27, scored 27
Gaudreau: 26, scored 18
Brouwer: 19, scored 13
Frolik: 19, scored 17
Gio: 12, scored 12

 

[Mobiandi]

Points don't tell us anything. They don't tell us that Maroon played on your top line most of the year, or that Lucic and Letestu played on your top PP unit most of the year. They don't tell us that Versteeg missed 14 games last year. They don't tell us that a forward may not get a secondary assist on a team with a more offensive blue line.

Here's what we know:

Goals Draisaitl and McDavid both got a point on: 42
Goals McDavid got a point on without Draisaitl getting a point: 58
Goals Draisaitl got a point on without McDavid getting a point: 35

So that's a total of 135 goals created by your top two. Oilers scored 247 goals. That means without your big two getting a point, you scored 112 goals.


Goals Gaudeau and Monahan both got a point on: 35
Goals Gaudreau got a point on without Monahan getting a point: 26
Goals Monahan got a point on without Gaudreau getting a point: 23

That's 84 goals created by our top two. Flames scored 226 goals. That means without our big two getting a point, we scored 142 goals. That's 30 more goals than the Oilers.

And considering Monahan played half of last year with a bad back and Gaudreau played half of last year with Chiasson going offside every shift, our top line will probably get back to producing like they did the year before. I'm not pulling this out of my ass here.

In 2015-16:

Goals Gaudeau and Monahan both got a point on: 38
Goals Gaudreau got a point on without Monahan getting a point: 40
Goals Monahan got a point on without Gaudreau getting a point: 25

That was 103 goals between those two. Flames scored 231 goals. So that was 128 goals scored by everybody else.

In 2014-15:
Goals Gaudeau and Monahan both got a point on: 23
Goals Gaudreau got a point on without Monahan getting a point: 41
Goals Monahan got a point on without Gaudreau getting a point: 39

That was 103 goals produced between those two. Flames scored 241 goals. So that was 138 goals produced by everybody else.

Call me crazy but 103 goals two straight years from those two, and then 19 less goals? Sounds like an outlier season. One that was already corrected about when Ferland was added to the Gaudreau line, and Monahan finally got healthy.

For the last three seasons, our roster has averaged 136 goals without our big two point producers having a point. Which is 24 goals more than you guys got last year from not-Draisaitl/McDavid, and I'm not sure replacing Eberle with Strome made your depth any better, since Strome's career high is less points than Eberle scored last year. I guess we'll see though, on the ice.

This post went completely unnoticed when it was probably the best comparison between the forward depth of the Flames and Oilers

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

This post went completely unnoticed when it was probably the best comparison between the forward depth of the Flames and Oilers

except doesn't it include goals by defensemen? nowhere in his post does it say it's only about the forwards

and we all know Calgary's defense is more offensive then Edmonton's

 

[Da McBomb]

This post went completely unnoticed when it was probably the best comparison between the forward depth of the Flames and Oilers

unnoticed? Please see Post #105 of this thread and respond

 

[Aceboogie]

This post went completely unnoticed when it was probably the best comparison between the forward depth of the Flames and Oilers

Its not tho. I mean it does show how much better McDavid and Draisaitl are than Gaudreau and Monahan.

But then its saying every other player, including the 3M line, are depth players. Which is incredibly flawed. I mean you can call them depth players for this argument, but Flames fan will lose their minds if we say they are depth players in another thread

Next it uses the entire team (so D included). Flames D total contributed to 159 goals, Oilers D 120. The Flames D is unquestionably more offensive. So a vast amount of the point increase is attributed to the D


It got passed over because its a flawed and dumb post

 

[HighLifeMan]

Its not a under performance if you dont score at you career high in goals. Thats why its literally called a career high. There is like 0% chance more than 3 players (especially in top 6) will hit their career highs all in the same season

For reference- Career AVERAGES:

Monahan: 27, scored 27
Gaudreau: 26, scored 18
Brouwer: 19, scored 13
Frolik: 19, scored 17
Gio: 12, scored 12

Yes.. I am well aware of that of what a career year is.

Giordano was coming off a 21 goal season.
Gaudreau was coming off a 30 goal season.
Brouwer was coming off an 18 goals season.
Bennett was coming off an 18 goal season.
etc..


I was merely showing what these players are capable of achieving and specifically listed the three core pieces in Gaudreau, Bennett and Giordano contributing 25 less goals from the season PRIOR. Nobody on the roster had a career year or unsustainable season..and as a whole the unit underachieved. That was exactly my point.

 

[Aceboogie]

Yes.. I am well aware of that of what a career year is.

Giordano was coming off a 21 goal season.
Gaudreau was coming off a 30 goal season.
Brouwer was coming off an 18 goals season.
Bennett was coming off an 18 goal season.
etc..


I was merely showing what these players are capable of achieving and specifically listed the three core pieces in Gaudreau, Bennett and Giordano contributing 25 less goals from the season PRIOR. Nobody had career years/unsustainable seasons.. That was exactly my point.

So essentially they had a sustainable year and will score as many goals as last year? In which they ranked 17th in the league? I guess thats a solid bench mark and minimum to expect but not exactly lighting the world on fire

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

How are Ferland, Bennett, and Versteeg any better than similar depth players on any other team? Almost every team has similar players to these guys yet you don't see anyone saying their depth is 'elite' or that they're in a ' better position to do it than most teams'.

Forwards on Pacific Division Playoff-ish teams:

Calgary

Anaheim

San Jose

Edmonton

We have one guy who was classified as a dependant, the guy who had mono kill his season last year. Was Brouwer bad last year? Sure, but it's debateable how sustainable that would be considering his microdata suggests he was alright.

.....And that doesn't even include Mark Jankowski who just tore up his first pro season:

 

[Weitz]

Forwards on Pacific Division Playoff-ish teams:

Calgary

Anaheim

San Jose

Edmonton

We have one guy who was classified as a dependant, the guy who had mono kill his season last year. Was Brouwer bad last year? Sure, but it's debateable how sustainable that would be considering his microdata suggests he was alright.

Heh, you really want to quote the guy who's model your are showing here is predicting the flames to miss the playoffs, while the Oilers finish 9th in the League?

 

[Aceboogie]

heh, you really want to quote the guy who's model your are showing here is predicting the flames to miss the playoffs, while the oilers finish 9th in the league?

lmao

 

[blankall]

Ferland scored 25 points last year, in 2016/17- 232 forwards scored 25 points. 25 points is the definition of an average depth player. He is a Kassian level player

Versteeg is actually the gem of that group of players with a whopping 37 points which would put him with the 155 other forwards capable of scoring 37 points. I do actually think 37 points is a good depth player and if you have 4 of these guys you are elite. Unfortunately, Flames have 3 25 point players and 1 37 point player on what is likely a career year being nearly out of the door in the NHL

Just for comparison, since Flames fans love to say how horrible Oilers depth is. Oilers have Letestu (35), Kassian (24) and Cagguila (prorated 25 over a full year). And as someone else pointed out, their depth actually outscored Calgarys. So not to turn this into a Flames vs Oilers thread but this should show you the type of quality of depth your looking at. If you think one teams depth is elite and best in the league and the others is poor, I dunno what to tell you

Who cares?

Anyways, you cannot argue that the Flames are a front loaded team with bad depth. They already have good depth, and have the potential for elite depth. That is what I am saying. You seem to be agreeing with me, in that the Flames are 2 35+ point players away from having elite depth.

 

[Aceboogie]

Who cares?

Anyways, you cannot argue that the Flames are a front loaded team with bad depth. They already have good depth, and have the potential for elite depth. That is what I am saying. You seem to be agreeing with me, in that the Flames are 2 35+ point players away from having elite depth.

No, they dont have good depth. Im trying to show you this, not sure how you dont get this. Yes the Flames are 2 35+ point players from having good depth. Like the Avs are a franchise center and 2 top pairing D away from being an elite team.

Any team is 2 35+ point players away from having good to great depth. First step is acquiring those players. Your hoping/ expecting a rag tag group of a washed up 32 year old, a faltering young kid and a career 25 point depth player to suddenly drink some sort of potion and become 42 point .5 ppg players

 

[HighLifeMan]

So essentially they had a sustainable year and will score as many goals as last year? In which they ranked 17th in the league? I guess thats a solid bench mark and minimum to expect but not exactly lighting the world on fire

You know what I am saying.

The team underachieved as an entire unit and still maintained league average production (15th in the league, not 17th). That is with both the top offensive player, and top defensemen having outlier seasons based on recent history and the depth pieces additionally having worse seasons to that of the year prior.

I am saying it is far more likely that these player's bounce back (Gaudreau and Bennett specifically) rather than replicating this past seasons production... That alone would put this team in the upper echelon of offensive production.

 

[Aceboogie]

You know what I am saying.

The team underachieved as an entire unit and still maintained league average production (15th in the league, not 17th). That is with both the top offensive player, and top defensemen having outlier seasons based on recent history and the depth pieces additionally having worse seasons to that of the year prior.

I am saying it is far more likely that these player's bounce back (Gaudreau and Bennett specifically) rather than replicating this past seasons production... That alone would put this team in the upper echelon of offensive production.

Bounce back to what? Their past career highs? Thats a pretty lofty expectations

The Flames as a team had a shooting % that ranked 14th in the league, aka average. In 2015, this year you keep referring to, ranked them 6th in the league (aka pretty lucky)

So your saying essentially the baseline for them is to have a shooting % that ranks them near the top of the NHL. At thats just the minimum to expect. I mean your expecting Gaudreau to return to a 75+ player because he did it one time in the league. Hes actually had 2 seasons at sub 65, and only 1 over. So maybe Gaudreaus 78 in 79 was an outlier? And what exactly in Bennett going to bounce back too? 36 points? Flat balls dont bounce all that high

I mean, not saying this cant happen, but the odds of it happening are extremely slim

 

[CraigsList]

Bounce back to what? Their past career highs? Thats a pretty lofty expectations

The Flames as a team had a shooting % that ranked 14th in the league, aka average. In 2015, this year you keep referring to, ranked them 6th in the league (aka pretty lucky)

So your saying essentially the baseline for them is to have a shooting % that ranks them near the top of the NHL. At thats just the minimum to expect. I mean your expecting Gaudreau to return to a 75+ player because he did it one time in the league. Hes actually had 2 seasons at sub 65, and only 1 over. So maybe Gaudreaus 78 in 79 was an outlier? And what exactly in Bennett going to bounce back too? 36 points? Flat balls dont bounce all that high

I mean, not saying this cant happen, but the odds of it happening are extremely slim

Are you freakin' kidding me? So Gaudreau won't be able to hit 78+ anymore? You're hilarious. I guess McDavid will never ever reach 100 again. Lofty expectations.

 

[Aceboogie]

Are you freakin' kidding me? So Gaudreau won't be able to hit 78+ anymore? You're hilarious. I guess McDavid will never ever reach 100 again. Lofty expectations.

Never said he couldnt, just said maybe dont expect it as a foregone conclusion, cause 78 points is elite, elite production. I mean Eberle scored 76 points in 78 games in his sophomore year as well (sandwiched between prorated 60 point years). Never returned to that production again

McDavid is coming off a 100 point season, and then was PPG+ in his rookie year. He has 2 years of evidence showing 100 is a safe bet. Gaudreau has 2 years of production showing a 65 point player, and 1 year of elite production that came a year ago.

Id say hes closer to a 70 point player, which is still extremely good and top 1st line production. But if your expecting PPG... eh whatever floats your boat, reach for the moon