Thornton says Matthews should be up for the Rocket, Selke, and Hart - PART 2

[HockeyVirus]

Where are you getting these stats.

Naturalstattrick has Matthews at xGA at 11.83 with McDavid at 10.34

hockeyreference

 

[Tobias Kahun]

hockeyreference

Hmm, I'm curious as to why theres such a big discrepancy in the stats.

 

[McFlyingV]

Lowest 5v5 Expected Goals Against/60 REL ranking among the 14 centers who played 1000+ minutes last year (Bergeron and Couts thrown in as they just missed the 1000 minute cut and should be included in a list covering defensive play):

1. O'Reilly
2. Schenn
3. Bergeron
4. Couturier
5. Matthews
6. Larkin
7. Kopitar
8. Mackinnon
9. Reinhart
10. Eichel
11. Barkov
12. Barzal
13. Draisaitl
14. Sheifele
15. McDavid

Actual Goals against/60 REL ranking last year from the same list:

1. Matthews
2. Kopitar
3. Couturier
4. Larkin
5. Schenn
6. Barkov
7. O'Reilly
8. Eichel
9. Barzal
10. Reinhart
11. Bergeron
12. Mackinnon
13. Draisaitl
14. McDavid
15. Sheifele

5v5 Takeaways/60 from the same list:

1. Matthews
2. Barzal
3. O'Reilly
4. McDavid
5. Barkov
6. Draisaitl
7. Sheifele
8. Bergeron
9. Eichel
10. Larkin
11. Couturier
12. Mackinnon
13. Kopitar
14. Schenn
15. Reinhart

Are these stats not rooted in reality? Or Matthews equaling McDavid in ES points/60 for almost 70 straight games now? Do you actually believe McDavid is better defensively than Matthews?

I thought I was pretty clear when talking about this season solely. If we're gonna debate offensive game in terms of this season only when McDavid has been light years ahead in past years, then we're gonna talk about defensive game this year where McDavid has better underlying stats.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Hmm, I'm curious as to why theres such a big discrepancy in the stats.

I honestly have no clue lol. Probably calculate their own stats and maybe what one might consider a high danger chance another doesn't? I have no idea someone smarter than me can explain it.

 

[authentic]

Blocks:

MCD: 6
Matthews: 19

faceoff%:

MCD: 49.8%
Matthews: 53.3

Takeaways:

MCD: 8
Matthews: 15

Offensive zone starts:

MCD: 60.5
Matthews: 55.7

Defensive zone starts:

MCD: 39.5
Matthews: 44.3

Expected goals for:

MCD: 9.3
Matthews: 10.1

Expected goals against:

McDavid: 8.1
Matthews: 4.8

Between all of these, along with the graphic, so far the only thing I have seen is one stat that suggests McDavid is better. That to me seems like the cherry picked stat IMO.

So funny how they can't or choose not to see it.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I thought I was pretty clear when talking about this season solely. If we're gonna debate offensive game in terms of this season only when McDavid has been light years ahead in past years, then we're gonna talk about defensive game this year where McDavid has better underlying stats.

Again, haven't seen anyone produce these stats. I just gave a graphic and a list of stats supporting Matthews. So far I've seen xpected goals /60 used and that's it. Yet all of the stats I show are cherry picked, but that 1 stat proves he is better. I am sincere, show me the stats. I don't like to be misinformed.

 

[authentic]

I thought I was pretty clear when talking about this season solely. If we're gonna debate offensive game in terms of this season only when McDavid has been light years ahead in past years, then we're gonna talk about defensive game this year where McDavid has better underlying stats.

Did you dismiss hockeyvirus' post above? This is not accurate.

 

[authentic]

Matthews has been equaling McDavid is ES production per ice time and only trails in PP production per ice time (where McDavid averages over a minute more a game there as well) but with more goals for nearly 70 straight games now while being clearly better defensively. Note that this is not overrating Matthews nor does it mean he's the better player, but those facts clearly don't sit well with you guys and it's pretty obvious why.

 

[McFlyingV]

Did you dismiss hockeyvirus' post above? This is not accurate.

Again, haven't seen anyone produce these stats. I just gave a graphic and a list of stats supporting Matthews. So far I've seen xpected goals /60 used and that's it. Yet all of the stats I show are cherry picked, but that 1 stat proves he is better. I am sincere, show me the stats. I don't like to be misinformed.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[HockeyVirus]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

I am just going to say, there is some heavy irony of using /60 stats to justify him being better, when for years Leaf fans were mocked for using /60 in goals and points to compare him vs other stars. I've said my piece on the topic, not really interesting in getting ugly with you guys about it or anything. Both are great players.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I am just going to say, there is some heavy irony of using /60 stats to justify him being better, when for years Leaf fans were mocked for using /60 in goals and points to compare him vs other stars. I've said my piece on the topic, not really interesting in getting ugly with you guys about it or anything. Both are great players.

That was back when Matthews was playing like 16 minutes a game, now that he's up where the star players usually are, its much more reliable.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Matthews on ice shooting percentage is 16.11, that's pretty unreal.

 

[McFlyingV]

I am just going to say, there is some heavy irony of using /60 stats to justify him being better, when for years Leaf fans were mocked for using /60 in goals and points to compare him vs other stars. I've said my piece on the topic, not really interesting in getting ugly with you guys about it or anything. Both are great players.

There's no irony because I have never said McDavid is a superior defensive player. I have said that McDavid has better underlying numbers this year (which i have already clearly said I don't ever use as a pure source of information on these matters), and that there is nothing to support claims from other posters that Matthews is significantly better defensively. My stance on it is that they've both played well defensively this year, but neither have been elite in that category and it really isn't a talking point of significant difference to favour either player.

As for the /60 numbers, there isn't any irony in that at all. The /60 numbers that were used for years were points per 60 which are highly flawed. How on earth would you ever compare things like xga without /60 numbers when McDavid has played 10% more games. Using the absolute number wouldn't make any sense at all.

 

[authentic]

I am just going to say, there is some heavy irony of using /60 stats to justify him being better, when for years Leaf fans were mocked for using /60 in goals and points to compare him vs other stars. I've said my piece on the topic, not really interesting in getting ugly with you guys about it or anything. Both are great players.

Was just thinking the exact same thing lol

 

[McFlyingV]

Was just thinking the exact same thing lol

Per 60 doesn't change the % numbers, you can take a look at those.

Here you go the non-per 60 numbers:
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And the relative numbers:
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And for the last time, I have never claimed McDavid a superior defensive player. I am refuting that Matthews has been a significantly better, let alone better defensive player this season. He hasn't been.

 

[authentic]

There's no irony because I have never said McDavid is a superior defensive player. I have said that McDavid has better underlying numbers this year (which i have already clearly said I don't ever use as a pure source of information on these matters), and that there is nothing to support claims from other posters that Matthews is significantly better defensively. My stance on it is that they've both played well defensively this year, but neither have been elite in that category and it really isn't a talking point of significant difference to favour either player.

As for the /60 numbers, there isn't any irony in that at all. The /60 numbers that were used for years were points per 60 which are highly flawed. How on earth would you ever compare things like xga without /60 numbers when McDavid has played 10% more games. Using the absolute number wouldn't make any sense at all.

Except they're not when comparing two elite players who other teams focus on to shutdown primarily. Less flawed than raw points without context, no debate about it.

 

[McFlyingV]

Except they're not when comparing two elite players who other teams focus on to shutdown primarily. Less flawed than raw points without context, no debate about it.

Of course they were, they weren't even playing similar minutes.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Except they're not when comparing two elite players who other teams focus on to shutdown primarily. Less flawed than raw points without context, no debate about it.

The flaw with those numbers was the fact that McDavid was playing alot more than Matthews.

Now that they're relatively close in minutes its a much more reliable source.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

 

[authentic]

The flaw with those numbers was the fact that McDavid was playing alot more than Matthews.

Now that they're relatively close in minutes its a much more reliable source.

There was no reason to believe Matthews points would've have gone up before either, especially with most of those minutes being powerplay time in years past. But yes, McDavid has the edge in ES assists ( but not ES points per/60 since Keefe became coach, it was .85 to .84 last night but not sure if that was before or after McDavid's 5 point game) and powerplay assists by a lot while also playing more minutes there so he is comfortably ahead in total points and will likely remain that way.

 

[authentic]

View attachment 399301

Seen this 1000 times, the only defensive stat in McDavid's favour.

 

[authentic]

Of course they were, they weren't even playing similar minutes.

Which is precisely why the raw points are flawed more than the per/60 stats.

 

[McFlyingV]

Seen this 1000 times, the only defensive stat in McDavid's favour.

Almost every stat I posted above showed a bigger overall impact both offensively and defensively for McDavid. Which again should never be a sole point of an argument, but it provides some insight into those claiming that Matthews defensive game has been significantly better this year. It hasn't been.

Which is precisely why the raw points are flawed more than the per/60 stats.

Both can be flawed and context should be used in all situations. Things like comparable ice time, comparable linemates, comparable deployment, etc should be considered if you're going to dive deeper into stats.

 

[authentic]

That was back when Matthews was playing like 16 minutes a game, now that he's up where the star players usually are, its much more reliable.

The least he played was 17:38 in his rookie season, but barely over 2 minutes on the powerplay.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Seen this 1000 times, the only defensive stat in McDavid's favour.

The only?

naturalstattrick has a page full of stats showing McDavid is better analytically when it comes to their defensive game