Prospect Info: Thomas Harley (2019, 18th Overall)

[hairylikebear]

We don't have a good record of developing defensemen under our tutelage (ex. Honka, Oleiskiak, etc). Meanwhile those who have had little (1 year or less) to no exposure at Cedar seem to do quite well (ex. Klinger, Heiskenan, Lindell). It's not like this is just some recent trend. It's been that way since as long as I can remember.

Good players don't stay in the AHL very long. Lesser players struggle to make the NHL roster so they play extra time in the AHL. That really says nothing about the quality of the AHL staff.

 

[Pandaman11]

One of my favorite moments at the draft: "Was I just selected, or is this 'Harley Thomas' someone else?"

 

[BfantZ]

Great pick .This was a deep draft and Harley is better than anyone they could have got at 13 last year IMO.

 

[BigG44]

We don't have a good record of developing defensemen under our tutelage (ex. Honka, Oleiskiak, etc). Meanwhile those who have had little (1 year or less) to no exposure at Cedar seem to do quite well (ex. Klinger, Heiskenan, Lindell). It's not like this is just some recent trend. It's been that way since as long as I can remember.

Good players don't stay in the AHL very long. Lesser players struggle to make the NHL roster so they play extra time in the AHL. That really says nothing about the quality of the AHL staff.

Hairy is correct. It's beyond ridiculous to ignore that because the AHL staff got a guy quickly adjusted to NA who had a lot of talent that they can't go on his ledger. That's silly.

Also, Oleksiak was drafted by a different front office and developed by an entirely different AHL staff. Plus, the job of the AHL staff is to get the player NHL ready. He has no control over what they do (Oleksiak, Honka, etc) once he gets them there. Honka was one of the better offensive AHL defenders under Laxdal and buy all accounts looked NHL ready.

Laxdall just finished his 5th year as an AHL coach. Klingberg (15), Nemeth (8) and Oleksiak (35) played limited games for him, but he's a key cog in getting Lindell, Johns, and Honka NHL ready. He and his staff absolutely played a roll in saving Dallas' season when that string of D injuries hit and players like Heatherington, Bayreuther, and Gleason filled in admirably.

Most of the picks or players that didn't pan out are guys that washed out and never became NHLers (a talent issue) in Backman, Bystrom, Gaunce, Hansson, and Martenet. Jury is out and too early to call on Vala and Nyberg. Shocking, I know, but those are all players who were never considered sure things or high end assets.

We already know the success rate of draft pick is extremely low. In a 5 year period with limited amount of talent Dallas drafted on D, that's above average work by an AHL coaching staff with the pieces they were given.

You can't have it both ways. Both things cannot be true. You can't bemoan Dallas' drafting and scouting department for making terrible picks AND then just ignore that to say that the AHL coaching staff development is also weak. There aren't highly touted prospects who had amazing junior, college, or European careers that were completely derailed in the AHL.

I'll admit I'm not as beaten by the Stars as several people on here seem, but it's like some want everyone to believe this is the biggest trash team in the league. There is clearly a talent issue with the organization, but it's pretty obvious where that problem starts: scouting, but it's also not correct to ignore the fact they've been better lately. I'm glad Josh Lile mentioned it recently on Twitter, but there is a lot of revisionist history going on with Miro Heiskanen. He wasn't close to the consensus 3rd pick in 2017. Many, many people on this board were pretty keyed in on Vilardi, and most scouts said it was wide open after the first 2 picks. There was even a legitimate debate by this board and scouts about Makar being over Heiskanen. That staff deserves a ton of credit for making the right choice in Heiskanen (or at least not a forward since Makar looks pretty damn good too). Pettersson too was rated below some of those forwards so the Canucks deserve some credit as well.

The idea that every facet of this organization is trash just seems a little excessive to me. I think it's pretty clear that the whole AHL staff, White included, are the best assets the organization has. Because of Dallas woeful draft showing in Nill's early years, White has done a remarkable job of identifying and signing talent that becomes top AHL talent and in many cases players that eventually contribute in some way to Dallas' success.

 

[LT]

Heiskanen wasn’t the sure-fire #3 pick largely because he was such a late riser. I’m pretty sure most mock drafts (towards the end) had him at or near #3. There was some competition but Heiskanen was expected to be the pick at 3. I don’t think it’s revisionist at all, I remember that draft pretty clearly from how excited I was that we finally had a pick that matters.

It wouldn’t have been shocking to pick someone else, but Heiskanen was expected to go at 3 by what I remember being a majority.

 

[BigG44]

 

[LT]

Who was, though? When is that decided on?

 

[serp]

Probably Hischier , Patrick , Glass , Vilardi and maybe Tippett ? Invites must've gone out early though . Heiskanen at #3 was not exactly a suprise .

 

[hairylikebear]

Didn't we pretty much reach a consensus before the draft that if Nico/Nolan went 1/2 that our pick should be Heiskanen? When has that ever happened before? That's about as no-brainer as it gets.

 

[BigG44]

Didn't we pretty much reach a consensus before the draft that if Nico/Nolan went 1/2 that our pick should be Heiskanen? When has that ever happened before? That's about as no-brainer as it gets.

It wasn't. 2 other media members have expressed the same thing. I agree with Latvian by the time the draft came around many people specifically on this board were high on Heiskanen, and that is the direction I would say the majority of our board wanted to go. Bob McKenzie also eventually had him at 3.

There was significant debate about the forwards and Makar going 3, and I specifically remember day of, there were still national media types including Friedman and McKenzie mentioning Dallas was trying to decide between Makar and Heiskanen.

I also remember that that with the exception of Pettersson, many forwards were mentioned as a possible 3rd pick. This wasn't anything close to Seider going 6th overall, but the idea that Miro at three was as much a lock as Nolan-Nico at 1 and 2 was a lock is not correct. Very little separated the next several players

 

[serp]

I wanted Heiskanen the second the Stars moved up to #3 in the lottery . Pretty sure there's still a post in the GDT from back then about it by me.

He's who i wanted the Stars to pick the moment it became a possibility.

 

[BigG44]

I've always really enjoyed when some of those team sites do the consensus rankings. Here is what it looked like from 2017. 6 guys had 3rd place finishes on multiple different lists.

2017 Final Consolidated Industry Draft Rankings

Also, IIRC, after the draft McKenzie confirmed what Nill said that Dallas would have taken Heiskanen #1, and I believe he actually also mentioned that Vancouver had Heiskanen and Makar at the top of their board.

I can't remember for sure, and I couldn't find a source, but I feel like it was reported that Colordao did have Makar #1 on their board.

Now, if we're arguing about who made the better decision in 2017 ... I'd give that to Vancouver because I truthfully was surprised and assumed it wouldn't be a great decision to take EP at 5. They were absolutely right to do that.

 

[BigG44]

I wanted Heiskanen the second the Stars moved up to #3 in the lottery . Pretty sure there's still a post in the GDT from back then about it by me.

He's who i wanted the Stars to pick the moment it became a possibility.

I felt the same way, but I do remember early on that I really like Vilardi too. Eventually though, Heiskanen was the guy I wanted for sure, but I remember holding my breath at the pick because there was no certainty on which direction they were going. There was the potential to really blow that pick.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

That green room was so stupid, Heiskanen (3), Makar (4), Pettersson (5), Andersson (7) weren't even in the green room. Yikes.

 

[serp]

I felt the same way, but I do remember early on that I really like Vilardi too. Eventually though, Heiskanen was the guy I wanted for sure, but I remember holding my breath at the pick because there was no certainty on which direction they were going. There was the potential to really blow that pick.

Worst case scenario would've been Patrick falling to #3 imho. He was mad that his uncle got laid off by the Stars when Ruff and his staff was let go and didn't interview with the team IRC . Imho the injury concerns with Vilardi had been to glaring for him to ever be the Stars pick after teams got a look at him . Otherwise there's no way that fall to #11 makes any sense with his resume at the time. Sucks for the Kings now . Took a gamble on an injury prone player at #11 and turns out the teams passing on him were right.

Still not 100% clear at this point though how good some of the other guys picked in the lottery are.

In general not too many players from the 2017 draft made it to the NHL yet.

 

[Benneguin]

Hairy is correct. It's beyond ridiculous to ignore that because the AHL staff got a guy quickly adjusted to NA who had a lot of talent that they can't go on his ledger. That's silly.

Also, Oleksiak was drafted by a different front office and developed by an entirely different AHL staff. Plus, the job of the AHL staff is to get the player NHL ready. He has no control over what they do (Oleksiak, Honka, etc) once he gets them there. Honka was one of the better offensive AHL defenders under Laxdal and buy all accounts looked NHL ready.

Laxdall just finished his 5th year as an AHL coach. Klingberg (15), Nemeth (8) and Oleksiak (35) played limited games for him, but he's a key cog in getting Lindell, Johns, and Honka NHL ready. He and his staff absolutely played a roll in saving Dallas' season when that string of D injuries hit and players like Heatherington, Bayreuther, and Gleason filled in admirably.

Most of the picks or players that didn't pan out are guys that washed out and never became NHLers (a talent issue) in Backman, Bystrom, Gaunce, Hansson, and Martenet. Jury is out and too early to call on Vala and Nyberg. Shocking, I know, but those are all players who were never considered sure things or high end assets.

We already know the success rate of draft pick is extremely low. In a 5 year period with limited amount of talent Dallas drafted on D, that's above average work by an AHL coaching staff with the pieces they were given.

You can't have it both ways. Both things cannot be true. You can't bemoan Dallas' drafting and scouting department for making terrible picks AND then just ignore that to say that the AHL coaching staff development is also weak. There aren't highly touted prospects who had amazing junior, college, or European careers that were completely derailed in the AHL.

I'll admit I'm not as beaten by the Stars as several people on here seem, but it's like some want everyone to believe this is the biggest trash team in the league. There is clearly a talent issue with the organization, but it's pretty obvious where that problem starts: scouting, but it's also not correct to ignore the fact they've been better lately. I'm glad Josh Lile mentioned it recently on Twitter, but there is a lot of revisionist history going on with Miro Heiskanen. He wasn't close to the consensus 3rd pick in 2017. Many, many people on this board were pretty keyed in on Vilardi, and most scouts said it was wide open after the first 2 picks. There was even a legitimate debate by this board and scouts about Makar being over Heiskanen. That staff deserves a ton of credit for making the right choice in Heiskanen (or at least not a forward since Makar looks pretty damn good too). Pettersson too was rated below some of those forwards so the Canucks deserve some credit as well.

The idea that every facet of this organization is trash just seems a little excessive to me. I think it's pretty clear that the whole AHL staff, White included, are the best assets the organization has. Because of Dallas woeful draft showing in Nill's early years, White has done a remarkable job of identifying and signing talent that becomes top AHL talent and in many cases players that eventually contribute in some way to Dallas' success.

Huh? Klinger had a cup of coffee at Cedar Park, yet Laxdall is supposed to get credit for him? Really? Klingberg, like Lindell cut their teeth professionals in the Swedish and Finnish professional leagues, not the AHL. The coaches there deserve the credit of their NHL readiness, not Laxdall. If Laxdall contributed anything it was getting them to adjust to American life, nothing more. As to your other examples? Nemeth? Honka? Really? Honka is NHL ready? That's news to me.

Edit to add: Perhaps we have different standards as to what is NHL ready. Just because Nemeth, Olekisak, Honka got call ups and spent most of their time watching games in the press box until they get traded is not my idea of NHL ready.

 

[beepeearr]

1. I love this pick. Betting on skill is a good thing.

2. There’s a ton of smart people who know way more than us about prospects that think this pick is a steal.

3. Credit where credit is due- this is par for the course for the past couple years, I wanna say since the 2nd round of 16. Nill and co. have consistently brought in serviceable players. Not many home runs, but it’s been consistently good for a number of years. The farm feels stocked now.

During the season I had a fairly lengthy conversation with Lites, one of the more interesting tidbits was he credited Oquist with the Heiskanen pick, and stated that starting with last years draft he had become a much bigger decision maker in the room, and if not for his wife’s profession preventing him from moving stateside, He would have likely been promoted to McDonnels spot. So if this is all true, it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

 

[Johno]

During the season I had a fairly lengthy conversation with Lites, one of the more interesting tidbits was he credited Oquist with the Heiskanen pick, and stated that starting with last years draft he had become a much bigger decision maker in the room, and if not for his wife’s profession preventing him from moving stateside, He would have likely been promoted to McDonnels spot. So if this is all true, it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

Curious to what her profession is to prevent such a thing? or she just wants to stay committed to said job?

Also would be quite the change to have Rikard there, he is like half the age of McDonnell

 

[M88K]

Maybe Holland will poach McDonnel to the Oilers... We can hope

 

[Troy McClure]

Good players don't stay in the AHL very long. Lesser players struggle to make the NHL roster so they play extra time in the AHL. That really says nothing about the quality of the AHL staff.

Yeah, I have a hard time squaring talk about the Stars being unable to develop d-men with their three top d-men all being guys they drafted and developed.

 

[WhoahNow]

Maybe Holland will poach McDonnel to the Oilers... We can hope

Considering he left Holland to join Nill I doubt he would go back to Holland unless it was for a larger role he has now.

 

[M88K]

Considering he left Holland to join Nill I doubt he would go back to Holland unless it was for a larger role he has now.

Don't crush my dreams man, WTH

 

[WhoahNow]

Don't crush my dreams man, WTH

If there's one thing I've learned with Mcdonnell its to set your expectations low

 

[beepeearr]

Curious to what her profession is to prevent such a thing? or she just wants to stay committed to said job?

Also would be quite the change to have Rikard there, he is like half the age of McDonnell

Lites said she was a politician

 

[Smelling Salt]

Scott Wheeler has a new article on Harley:

The Gifted: The Stars will get the most out of Thomas Harley...

TLDR: Unleash the hounds