Player Discussion Thomas Chabot (D) Part 2

[NyQuil]

Chabot to me is a guy that can beat up weak teams and struggles against better teams.

Like Wade Redden.

Someone more motivated than I can do the math and figure out if I'm just making shit up. I just get that impression.

His fancy moves and stickhandling through the opposition is a lot easier against Chicago than it is against a team like Toronto. When he has time and space, he's lethal. When he's pressured, he makes mistakes.

 

[Micklebot]

Chabot to me is a guy that can beat up weak teams and struggles against better teams.

Like Wade Redden.

Someone more motivated than I can do the math and figure out if I'm just making shit up. I just get that impression.

His fancy moves and stickhandling through the opposition is a lot easier against Chicago than it is against a team like Toronto. When he has time and space, he's lethal. When he's pressured, he makes mistakes.

It's a tough hypothesis to easily test since teams aren't consistently strong or bad over his career, but looking at a few examples of teams that have been:

Tor, paced at 57 pts per 82 games.
VGK pacing at 67 pts/82.

TBL he's ok at 44pts/82
Col he's ok at 45pts/82
Edm he's ok at 45pts/82

Struggles against Carolina though, 22pts/82
Struggles against Fla, 37pts/82

 

[NyQuil]

It's a tough hypothesis to easily test since teams aren't consistently strong or bad over his career, but looking at a few examples of teams that have been:

Tor, paced at 57 pts per 82 games.
VGK pacing at 67 pts/82.

TBL he's ok at 44pts/82
Col he's ok at 45pts/82
Edm he's ok at 45pts/82

Struggles against Carolina though, 22pts/82
Struggles against Fla, 37pts/82

I get that it's hard to find statistical support outside of offensive contributions.

 

[Micklebot]

I get that it's hard to find statistical support outside of offensive contributions.

fair,

This is just the last three seasons, 5v5 sorted by GA/60

 

[bicboi64]

Let's see what impact he and the team's other "impact " players have against the Leafs.
I'm sure you would agree if one is an impact player the playoffs are where you should shine.

I'd disagree with that. Matthews and Marner routinely choke in the playoffs, but are both impact players by various metrics

 

[bicboi64]

Chabot to me is a guy that can beat up weak teams and struggles against better teams.

Like Wade Redden.

Someone more motivated than I can do the math and figure out if I'm just making shit up. I just get that impression.

His fancy moves and stickhandling through the opposition is a lot easier against Chicago than it is against a team like Toronto. When he has time and space, he's lethal. When he's pressured, he makes mistakes.

I'm curious as to what you've said about Redden. Did you feel like he couldn't hold his own/produce against better teams? I was in grade school and was a big fan because I thought him and Chara could be put on the ice against any matchup and excel

 

[NyQuil]

I'm curious as to what you've said about Redden. Did you feel like he couldn't hold his own/produce against better teams? I was in grade school and was a big fan because I thought him and Chara could be put on the ice against any matchup and excel

Well, firstly, if you mean together, they didn't play together very often. Redden was with guys like Rachunek and Meszaros. Chara was pretty much glued to Phillips IIRC.

My impression with Redden was that he was good against the less physical teams and worse against the more physical teams.

He was a finesse player and I don't think he handled the pressure of a heavy forecheck very well.

I get the same sense from Chabot.

 

[DueDiligence]

I'd disagree with that. Matthews and Marner routinely choke in the playoffs, but are both impact players by various metrics

hence the word "should"

 

[NyQuil]

fair,

This is just the last three seasons, 5v5 sorted by GA/60

View attachment 1015261

Interesting!

Some of these Western Conference samples are pretty small.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Let's see what impact he and the team's other "impact " players have against the Leafs.
I'm sure you would agree if one is an impact player the playoffs are where you should shine.

Absolutely, you should be a player that makes an impact on helping the team win games.

 

[DueDiligence]

Absolutely, you should be a player that makes an impact on helping the team win games.

Exactly but not just one game but 50% of the time at least.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Exactly but not just one game but 50% of the time at least.

I get where you’re going, but I don’t agree that Chabby wilts under pressure at all.

I think he excels in tough games, doesn’t shy away from physical forecheckers and does a good job skating the puck out.

I find that the puck support between him and Jenson when the other has the puck to be fantastic.

I know lots of people have been down on the guy for the last few seasons, but he’s a warrior who finally has a good D partner to play with, in a quality top 4 and it shows.

He may not be the top guy anymore, though he and Jenson have been amongst the leagues top pairings at times this year and carried the load when Sanderson struggled, but he’s an excellent number two defender leading the second pairing.

Keep in mind that no defender is error free, not even Sandy.

 

[OD99]

He is always having to fight against the old narrative.

He is very good and helps our transition game immensely. He jumps up to support our F better than anyone, although he may not always make the best offensive plays.

Recently he has been fantastic. Harder on D, breaking the puck out, keeping plays alive in the offensive zone and capitalizing on his looks. If he plays tomorrow I hope he scores again to make it an even 10 and maybe get to the 50 point mark.

Edit - just looked and he is at 45 points, so 50 isn't reasonable.

 

[Micklebot]

Edit - just looked and he is at 45 points, so 50 isn't reasonable.

Did you see the roster Carolina iced against Mtl? Anything can happen, lol.

 

[GoodinOsgoode]

He is always having to fight against the old narrative.

He is very good and helps our transition game immensely. He jumps up to support our F better than anyone, although he may not always make the best offensive plays.

Recently he has been fantastic. Harder on D, breaking the puck out, keeping plays alive in the offensive zone and capitalizing on his looks. If he plays tomorrow I hope he scores again to make it an even 10 and maybe get to the 50 point mark.

Edit - just looked and he is at 45 points, so 50 isn't reasonable.

I do think that this might have been his best season as a Senator.

I know that he has had seasons with more points but I think all around, this is the best that I have seen him play. Having Jensen as his partner for most of the season and not having to be the number 1 and playing
25+ minutes per game as really helped. This was also the only season that he has reached 80 games played.

Not that it means a ton but his +/- was +17, which was second on the team to Jensen's +20.
I do think those numbers speak to the reliability of that pairing and their effectiveness at both ends.
For what it's worth, it's the only season where he has not been in the negatives, which I think is more of a product of the overall defensive play of the team but +17 certainly stands out.

His 45 points is even more impressive with him being mostly on the second power play unit this season.
He had 8 points overall on the PP, compared to 28 points for Sanderson on the PP.
Even strength, Chabot had 37 points to 27 for Sanderson.

The only concern remains to be his contract.
$8/m per season for a #2 D is on the high end, especially for a team that is so tight to the cap.
The Norris/Cozens trade did provide some relief but not much really, when you consider that there are a number of new contracts that will need to be put in place in the near future (Pinto, Zetterlund, Kleven, Giroux?, Jensen?, Perron?, etc.). The cap going up will certainly help and should take some of that pressure off of that contract. At 28 y/o, I think Chabot has got several good years left to play and I do hope it is here in Ottawa.

 

[JD1]

My issue with chabot was always the value we were getting for his money.

He's 14th in defencemen aav this year. Is he a top 15 guy? Probably not but he's certainly in the neighborhood this year. He's had an excellent year.

Going into this season he would have been considered a cap dump trade by most I'd think. He's certainly rebounded and is delivering some value for his deal. If he maintains this level f9r a couple of seasons that bodes very well for us.

 

[bicboi64]

Chabot is 18th in defencemen scoring. Not having as much PP time makes that quite impressive. He went from being overpaid the last couple seasons to being worth his contract imo, even if that's because the cap is increasing.

 

[OD99]

I do think that this might have been his best season as a Senator.

I agree. His overall game was solid.

His 45 points is even more impressive with him being mostly on the second power play unit this season.
He had 8 points overall on the PP, compared to 28 points for Sanderson on the PP.
Even strength, Chabot had 37 points to 27 for Sanderson.

I love that you brought this up as it shows his impact, especially for a team that has trouble scoring 5 on 5. That doesn't take into consideration how effective he is at transporting the puck, when not getting points.

The only concern remains to be his contract.
$8/m per season for a #2 D is on the high end, especially for a team that is so tight to the cap.

He is a #1B D IMO and that cap hit isn't so bad. He is tied for around 20th in the league right now and that will continue to plummet over the next 2 seasons. If he keeps up this level, or better as he tightens up the D side of things, it will be a very good contract.

At 28 y/o, I think Chabot has got several good years left to play and I do hope it is here in Ottawa.

With his skating, he will age gracefully as a hockey player. I hope he becomes another lifer for us and gets to enjoy some playoff success.

 

[OD99]

My issue with chabot was always the value we were getting for his money.

He's 14th in defencemen aav this year. Is he a top 15 guy? Probably not but he's certainly in the neighborhood this year. He's had an excellent year.

I see him closer to 20th, tied, with some other guys, but I was doing it manually so I may be off.

Going into this season he would have been considered a cap dump trade by most I'd think. He's certainly rebounded and is delivering some value for his deal. If he maintains this level f9r a couple of seasons that bodes very well for us.

I don't think he was ever a cap dump, per se. He is a great skater and can handle the puck as good as almost anyone. He may not have performed up to the contract, but lots of guys on bad teams seem over paid. He is a core cog and will have to maintain his play for us to have a good playoffs.

 

[Micklebot]

One thing I've noticed this year that was a bit unexpected is he's been throwing more hits, or rather, more noticeable hits that actually take guys out of the play and put them on their arse.

This is also his healthiest season to date outside of the covid season.

 

[JungleBeat]

He’s playing the same as he always does. Weak, soft and zero intensity. It’s fair to say he is what he is at this point. Time to move on from him.

 

[bicboi64]

I really thought Chabot could break out as the beast he was during his 55 point season after while not having tough matchups.

I'm still down to keep him, but friggin hell does it feel like his best won't be enough

 

[LuckyPierre]

He’s playing the same as he always does. Weak, soft and zero intensity. It’s fair to say he is what he is at this point. Time to move on from him.

He has not been good this series. Gaps have been bad, net front coverage has been sub par, breakouts OK, offensive touches have been non-threatening. To be honest, Sanderson hasn't performed to expectations either.

As Yakemchuk develops, this team will have to give him an early opportunity to earn a PP slot. We need a shooting threat from the back end (or in general) and Chabot is not, and will never be that guy, so Yak's PP time may very well come at the expense of Chabot on PP2.

 

[PlayOn]

He has not been good this series. Gaps have been bad, net front coverage has been sub par, breakouts OK, offensive touches have been non-threatening. To be honest, Sanderson hasn't performed to expectations either.

As Yakemchuk develops, this team will have to give him an early opportunity to earn a PP slot. We need a shooting threat from the back end (or in general) and Chabot is not, and will never be that guy, so Yak's PP time may very well come at the expense of Chabot on PP2.

Just put Chabot and Yak on PP2 when he’s ready. Greig, Pinto and Zetterlund can be the forwards (or Giroux/Perron if they’re still around).

 

[bicboi64]

Don't think Chabot will be in our long term plans. Jensen can't be expected to maintain his level of play as he ages. If Chabot bring effective requires Jensen, I'd rather just let Yakemchuk develop into our 2RD and find an LF that compliments him. Maybe Kleven can develop into that or maybe we find a cheaper LD.