Pre-Game Talk: This is me

[McJadeddog]

Honestly it shouldn’t have changed much. Not a big difference between down 3-0 at home vs down 3-1 heading into another teams barn. Win game 5 somehow and the odds would take a huge jump.

Yeah 3-1 is still a pretty ridiculous hill to climb, and nobody should be surprised at all if Florida wins tomorrow. But if we do manage to somehow squeak out a win in game 5, the odds are gonna take a huge jump like you say.

The uncomfortable truth every fan of this sport just kinda pretends not to notice is that isolated to individual game samples, the team with the better performing goalie is almost always the team that wins.

"Hockey should be called goalie" is one of my favorite sayings about the sport. As a former goalie myself, I can tell you that a lot of tending is luck as well. Sure, you put yourself in the position to statistically make the save, but its still a probability based on position, angle, situation, etc in many, MANY, circumstances. Luck plays a ridiculously high role in goaltending, although most goalies will deny this in my experience, lol.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

They've faced seemingly insurmountable adversity in a game 5 before...and then...

Yup! Same position in 2006: down 3-1 going into game 5. Went to 7 games.

 

[GOilers88]

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

WE STILL WANT THE CUP

 

[Sanchez]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802746720142635064

 

[Mr Kot]

Broberg babysitting Nurse, but he seems capable of doing so. Maybe we found our Nurse tamer?

 

[bone]

My hope is that it partially works against Florida. There is a seed of doubt planted, and rather than get right back at it they have two full days off to build tension.

Anyway, all these games feel like coin flips and so far FLA has had the bigger share of fortune in this series.


They had us at 9% down 0-3? :O

That's shockingly high at 9%. Historically teams down 3-0 have lost 98% of the time.

Teams down 3-1 have lost 90.8% of the time, and teams that won Game 4 to still trail 3-1 have lost 95% of the time with 70% of those losses being in Game 5.

Trailing teams that win Game 5 to make a series 3-2 still lose 79.4% of the time and 91% of the teams that rallied to 3-2 from a 3-0 deficity still lost the series.

(Each of these examples show even worse percentage when the trailing team didn't have home ice advantage overall in the series).

 

[Drivesaitl]

View attachment 883602

If you have a "she" in your life you should worry about Corey Perry.

joke aside.

 

[Drivesaitl]

That's shockingly high at 9%. Historically teams down 3-0 have lost 98% of the time.

Teams down 3-1 have lost 90.8% of the time, and teams that won Game 4 to still trail 3-1 have lost 95% of the time with 70% of those losses being in Game 5.

Trailing teams that win Game 5 to make a series 3-2 still lose 79.4% of the time and 91% of the teams that rallied to 3-2 from a 3-0 deficity still lost the series.

(Each of these examples show even worse percentage when the trailing team didn't have home ice advantage overall in the series).

Even in terms of raw permutation probability of 4 coin flips in a row is 1/16 or 6.25% But thats in a probability without extraneous variables.

The probability of an Oiler win happening 4 times in a row subsequent to the other team being up 3-0 ought to be lower than the random coin flip permutation.

In other words the 9% probability is weirdly skewed to Oilers even after the 3 losses. I say weirdly in a probability sense, not in a real world and what the Oilers are sense. Agreed with you the 9% is high. Could be some house hedging going on as gambling sites are already gonna lose out big time if Oilers win as based on betting when the Oilers were struggling early in season. Those bets will of course have huge payouts if Oilers win.

 

[bone]

Even in terms of raw permutation probability of 4 coin flips in a row is 1/16 or 6.25% But thats in a probability without extraneous variables.

The probability of an Oiler win happening 4 times in a row subsequent to the other team being up 3-0 ought to be lower than the random coin flip permutation.

In other words the 9% probability is weirdly skewed to Oilers even after the 3 losses. I say weirdly in a probability sense, not in a real world and what the Oilers are sense. Agreed with you the 9% is high. Could be some house hedging going on as gambling sites are already gonna lose out big time if Oilers win as based on betting when the Oilers were struggling early in season. Those bets will of course have huge payouts if Oilers win.

For sure. I especially find it surprisingly high considering their model still liked Florida normally. I think they had Edmonton as small favorite going into it, but Florida was still typically high in their power rankings.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

If you have a "she" in your life you should worry about Corey Perry.

joke aside.

or Anna Kane...

 

[Captain Fantastic]

You need luck some luck to win most games in the playoffs. We didn't get much, if any, in games 1 and 3, and then got a bunch in game 4. Hockey is determined by luck a LOT more than most people, especially huge hockey fans, want to admit.

No doubt . At worst , the series should be tied 2-2. Game 1 ..that was lopsided but Bob..

 

[McJadeddog]

That's shockingly high at 9%. Historically teams down 3-0 have lost 98% of the time.

Teams down 3-1 have lost 90.8% of the time, and teams that won Game 4 to still trail 3-1 have lost 95% of the time with 70% of those losses being in Game 5.

Trailing teams that win Game 5 to make a series 3-2 still lose 79.4% of the time and 91% of the teams that rallied to 3-2 from a 3-0 deficity still lost the series.

(Each of these examples show even worse percentage when the trailing team didn't have home ice advantage overall in the series).

Yeah, the odds are SUPER stacked against us, but we all knew that. We were the better team in 3 of the 4 games, but yet are down 3 games to 1, lol. Hockey is a weird sport.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Draisaitl

 

[russ99]

One game at a time. I have some doubts they will be able to play a similar game as Saturday on that garbage Florida ice. But we're due to take a close one.

 

[K1984]

One game at a time. I have some doubts they will be able to play a similar game as Saturday on that garbage Florida ice. But we're due to take a close one.

Don't need great ice to spread out their defense by sending guys on the rush and chipping pucks to space up ice. I feel like the formula Saturday is convertible to bad ice as well.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yeah, the odds are SUPER stacked against us, but we all knew that. We were the better team in 3 of the 4 games, but yet are down 3 games to 1, lol. Hockey is a weird sport.

I don’t know that locker room gives me “not one yard” vibes from Remember the Titans.

 

[UpHere]

View attachment 883546

look at this... theres a canadian goalie here... look at the neck... the chin, look at the stache... look at the game 4 stats look at who was pulled last game - we got a clear winner here - lets go stu - oilers in 6, wait, 7

 

[rboomercat90]

They've faced seemingly insurmountable adversity in a game 5 before...and then...

Seeing Glen Wesley’s kid crying at the end of this still makes me laugh all these years later.

 

[Yablo21]

Even in terms of raw permutation probability of 4 coin flips in a row is 1/16 or 6.25% But thats in a probability without extraneous variables.

The probability of an Oiler win happening 4 times in a row subsequent to the other team being up 3-0 ought to be lower than the random coin flip permutation.

In other words the 9% probability is weirdly skewed to Oilers even after the 3 losses. I say weirdly in a probability sense, not in a real world and what the Oilers are sense. Agreed with you the 9% is high. Could be some house hedging going on as gambling sites are already gonna lose out big time if Oilers win as based on betting when the Oilers were struggling early in season. Those bets will of course have huge payouts if Oilers win.

 

[leonleonheart]

Just arrived in Fort Lauderdale today, for game 5 on Tuesday.
Anybody know of any local hangouts here, or in sunrise, that I may be able to bond with my fellow brethren Oiler fans?

Two of the guys at Oilersnation went down there for games 1 and 2. Frank Seravali told them to check out the Elbo Room.

 

[bellagiobob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802794864612135411

 

[Captain Fantastic]

Just arrived in Fort Lauderdale today, for game 5 on Tuesday.
Anybody know of any local hangouts here, or in sunrise, that I may be able to bond with my fellow brethren Oiler fans?

Plenty of Burlesque/Cabarets in the area. That's a great way of bonding with fellow Oil fans.
If that's not your thing, there's an area by the shore that are full of bars. Nice town...

 

[ManOfSteelI]

You need luck some luck to win most games in the playoffs. We didn't get much, if any, in games 1 and 3, and then got a bunch in game 4. Hockey is determined by luck a LOT more than most people, especially huge hockey fans, want to admit.

I agree. Hockey is more impacted by luck than any other major sport.

 

[Hollywood55]

View attachment 883497

Who wins tomorrow?