Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid 3 - Flyers Rumors and Media Mentions: Never Ending Circles

[Flyerfan4life]

lol... there is no market for Risto..

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Here’s where I yet again say that delaying a pick decreases the value and at least two people tell me that’s not true.

Poppycock. Have you even watched film on the 2027 class??

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

lol... there is no market for Risto..

Oh I can believe there's interest in both. The Flyers are far from the only NHL team that values what they bring. Will Briere be able to maximize that value? Or will he just stroke himself while on the phone with other GMs, thinking about how valuable his assets are until time runs out?

#staybuckled

 

[trostol]

Better trade Risto now before he reverts

 

[deadhead]

Here’s where I yet again say that delaying a pick decreases the value and at least two people tell me that’s not true.

Depends on the team.

Basically it comes down to the discount rate of the GM, because unless a draft is clearly better or worse the value of the pick should be the same. You can't "invest" a draft pick.

However, if an owner wants to win now, a GM will value a pick this season over one in the future, b/c he may not be around when that future pick makes it to the NHL.

On the other hand, if a team is rebuilding, then a GM may have a low discount rate b/c if he's accumulating drafts picks to be used over a 3-4 year period, then exactly when a pick arrives is less important.

So rebuilding GMs should arbitrage and trade picks/players today with GMs feeling the heat for more valuable picks a year or two down the road.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Depends on the team.

Basically it comes down to the discount rate of the GM, because unless a draft is clearly better or worse the value of the pick should be the same. You can't "invest" a draft pick.

However, if an owner wants to win now, a GM will value a pick this season over one in the future, b/c he may not be around when that future pick makes it to the NHL.

On the other hand, if a team is rebuilding, then a GM may have a low discount rate b/c if he's accumulating drafts picks to be used over a 3-4 year period, then exactly when a pick arrives is less important.

So rebuilding GMs should arbitrage and trade picks/players today with GMs feeling the heat for more valuable picks a year or two down the road.

No.

 

[deadhead]

No.

Yes. Basic finance/economics.

Which is why you see rebuilding teams accept future picks in trades all the time.

And why teams that want to win now overpay at the TDL (they're valuing assets at their perceived marginal value for this season's PO run).

Those "rule of thumb" values for present v future picks are based on past trades.

There are only so many sellers willing to defer value, and so many high discount GMs with future picks to offer and players they desire. Supply and demand.
So the actual payment for delayed gratification may vary year to year.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yes. Basic finance/economics.

Which is why you see rebuilding teams accept future picks in trades all the time.

And why teams that want to win now overpay at the TDL (they're valuing assets at their perceived marginal value for this season's PO run).

Those "rule of thumb" values for present v future picks are based on past trades.

There are only so many sellers willing to defer value, and so many high discount GMs with future picks to offer and players they desire. Supply and demand.
So the actual payment for delayed gratification may vary year to year.

No.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I'm buckled.

 

[deadhead]

No.

You're channeling Kurt Russell.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

You're channeling Kurt Russell.

Obviously lol. You really want to...nevermind.

 

[renberg]

I would be surprised if it took until the TDL for Laughton and Ristolainen to be moved. Usually at the U.S. Thanksgiving teams assess what they have and need. There are quite a few teams that are in the market for help at center, especially a veteran. The pickings are slim. Best to move fast or lose out. The same with half decent RHD that can be physical. Briere is really in a nice spot here and now. He needs to take advantage of things. If he holds too long bad things like injuries could happen and blow up everything on him.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You're channeling Kurt Russell.

 

[Boxscore]

If Briere doesn't trade Laughton and Ristolainen he should be fired before the draft, if not sooner.

 

[dgaspari]

He sat on Laughton for how long and now there's no team that will give up a first and a second for him. Nothing wrong with being cautious, but you can also sit for too long and a player can very easily lose their value or someone else can jump in. It's time for Danny to shit or get off the pot. He knows what he has to work with.

a piece of advice from Branch Rickey

 

[Boxscore]

Y

a piece of advice from Branch Rickey
View attachment 936263

Yup. I like Briere, but the fact that he didn't trade Laughton last year when the rumored return was a 1st rounder+ is borderline incompetence. If he does it again, he needs to go. I don't care how great he was as a player. The only way Laughton should be getting in the Wells Fargo is by walking off the visiting team's bus... or paying admission.

 

[trostol]

 

[pit]

The year is 2045 & the Flyers are still listening to offers for Scott Laughton but not eager to move him.

Why would the team be eager to trade its GM? Sure, it hasn't made the playoffs since Giroux was here but they're rebuilding.

 

[deadhead]

I would be surprised if it took until the TDL for Laughton and Ristolainen to be moved. Usually at the U.S. Thanksgiving teams assess what they have and need. There are quite a few teams that are in the market for help at center, especially a veteran. The pickings are slim. Best to move fast or lose out. The same with half decent RHD that can be physical. Briere is really in a nice spot here and now. He needs to take advantage of things. If he holds too long bad things like injuries could happen and blow up everything on him.

On the other hand, a lot of teams don't want to make a move until close to the TDL so they know they're going to make the POs or are on the edge.
And some teams want to accumulate cap room up to the TDL.

 

[deadhead]

Y

Yup. I like Briere, but the fact that he didn't trade Laughton last year when the rumored return was a 1st rounder+ is borderline incompetence. If he does it again, he needs to go. I don't care how great he was as a player. The only way Laughton should be getting in the Wells Fargo is by walking off the visiting team's bus... or paying admission.

I'm still skeptical of that "reported" deal.

Similar players (Toffoli, Goodrow, Wennberg, etc) were dealt for a 2nd and 3rd or a 1st with a 3rd going the other way.
Top six forwards can get you a 1st but not a lot more.

And St Louis was only offering a 1st for Sanheim with a salary dump (Krug).
So it wasn't like their GM was eager to overpay.

I think Laughton has similar value than a year ago, to get a 1st you'd have to send back a late 2nd or 3rd and/or take on a salary dump. More likely to garner a 2nd plus another asset.
Laughton and Flyers 2nd for 1st and 3rd and take a bad forward contract (few million)?

Risto will probably be similar to Walker, 1st with a salary dump and 5th going the other way.

 

[Boxscore]

I'm still skeptical of that "reported" deal.

Similar players (Toffoli, Goodrow, Wennberg, etc) were dealt for a 2nd and 3rd or a 1st with a 3rd going the other way.
Top six forwards can get you a 1st but not a lot more.

And St Louis was only offering a 1st for Sanheim with a salary dump (Krug).
So it wasn't like their GM was eager to overpay.

I think Laughton has similar value than a year ago, to get a 1st you'd have to send back a late 2nd or 3rd and/or take on a salary dump. More likely to garner a 2nd plus another asset.
Laughton and Flyers 2nd for 1st and 3rd and take a bad forward contract (few million)?

Risto will probably be similar to Walker, 1st with a salary dump and 5th going the other way.

I believe the 1st+ for Laughton last year. He had bursts of offense and is a versatile jackknife type perfect for a contending team since he can play up the lineup in a pinch and down the lineup for maximum depth.

Laughton is more valuable to another team than he is to the Flyers. Holding onto him only puts his value in jeopardy since he's not getting better and with each game, he risks long-term injury.

Same with Ristolainen.

Briere needs to move these guys and add to his surplus of picks and assets. Between the two of them, the Flyers should get a 1st and 2nd+ at minimum, if not two 1sts in 2026.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Giroux 2006. Sean Couturier 2011.

That’s a mighty short list when elite talent finds its way into the league continuously.

Don’t mean to offend, but it’s not luck imo. It’s dogshit scouting, first - and foremost.

It is in the later rounds. And the elite talent finding its way into the league continuously is spread out among teams who swing and miss just as frequently as the Flyers. Teams will make a great pick one year and a bad one the next year with the same staff in place. A lot of it is luck. Yes, there are obvious bad and obvious good decisions but for the most part luck plays a huge role. And yeah the Flyers have not had the elite talent obtained through the draft, but a lot of that is (you guessed it) luck.

Let's look at the last ten drafts in the first round: Sanheim, Provorov/Konecny, Rubstov, Patrick/Frost, Farabee/JOB, York, Foerster, Gauthier, Michkov/Bonk, Luchanko

Some of these guys obviously it is too early to tell but for the most part these picks were considered good picks at the time (York probably least so because Caufield was there and JOB because no one ever heard of him). A lof these picks were just unlucky in terms of there weren't any talent there (or injuries). Just go back and tell me realistically who would you have picked instead of these guys without the benefit of hindsight? I wanted Rantanen in the Provorov year but I remember being told that building a strong defense was the way to win and Provorov was a great pick. Gauthier I think people were upset about or at least strongly preferred others but again the picks around him who are you taking? Everyone is mad about the Luchanko pick but at this point we don't know how he turns out.

If your response is a that a good organization would have made better picks here, tell me which team that is. Every team you look at has good picks and bad picks. Some teams get lucky with high end picks in the right years. Some don't. Some teams will pick David Pastarnack in the 20s then pass on Barzal and Connor three times in a row. I don't think there are any examples in the first round for the Flyers in recent memory where you can say that there was a CLEAR better choice. Perhaps Luchanko but the jury is still out on that one. That pick may look bad today and may look better or worse down the road.

 

[BiggE]

Oh I can believe there's interest in both. The Flyers are far from the only NHL team that values what they bring. Will Briere be able to maximize that value? Or will he just stroke himself while on the phone with other GMs, thinking about how valuable his assets are until time runs out?

#staybuckled

I think the market for Risto depends on how much $ the Flyers are willing to retain.
At 5.1 million, zero interest unless the Flyers are taking some money back
At 3-3.5 million, maybe some limited interest, but a 4th round pick is all you’re getting back
At 2.55 million, there would definitely be interest. Might even get a 2nd from a contending team

 

[GKJ]

I would be surprised if it took until the TDL for Laughton and Ristolainen to be moved. Usually at the U.S. Thanksgiving teams assess what they have and need. There are quite a few teams that are in the market for help at center, especially a veteran. The pickings are slim. Best to move fast or lose out. The same with half decent RHD that can be physical. Briere is really in a nice spot here and now. He needs to take advantage of things. If he holds too long bad things like injuries could happen and blow up everything on him.

This is not the recent history of the league unless you’re dealing with Jim Rutherford.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm still skeptical of that "reported" deal.

Similar players (Toffoli, Goodrow, Wennberg, etc) were dealt for a 2nd and 3rd or a 1st with a 3rd going the other way.
Top six forwards can get you a 1st but not a lot more.

And St Louis was only offering a 1st for Sanheim with a salary dump (Krug).
So it wasn't like their GM was eager to overpay.

I think Laughton has similar value than a year ago, to get a 1st you'd have to send back a late 2nd or 3rd and/or take on a salary dump. More likely to garner a 2nd plus another asset.
Laughton and Flyers 2nd for 1st and 3rd and take a bad forward contract (few million)?

Risto will probably be similar to Walker, 1st with a salary dump and 5th going the other way.

You're skeptical of all information that shows the Flyers aren't competent and then when the information is confirmed beyond doubt you try to explain how the bad thing is secretly fine