Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid 3 - Flyers Rumors and Media Mentions: Never Ending Circles

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,099
22,248
They've had bad luck, but some bad decision making.

Patrick was both, attraction was he was NHL ready to win in the near future, though other players had higher upsides, then bad injury luck
Lindblom was a great 5th rd find, probable top 6 forward, then cancer
Allison had NHL PF potential, couldn't stay healthy
Hart was starting NHL goalie . . .

On the other hand, TK (24), Sanheim (17) are top ten, maybe top five quality picks.

However, starting in 2016 Hextall missed more than he hit, Rubstov, Laberge, JOB, Ratcliffe, Ginning.

I assume picks after the 2nd rd are basically your scouting department, Cates 5th, Fedotov 7th, Ersson 5th,

Under CF/Flahr they drafted better in the first two rounds:
York #14, Brink #34, Foerster (#23), Andrae (#54), Tuomaala (#46), Gauthier (#5)
The problem was trading away picks

Given their D+1 and D+2, the last two drafts look pretty solid, but it's too early to know.
 

Flyerfan4life

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
35,652
22,486
Richmond BC, Canada
And when they do find someone promising, the wringer they put them through instead of helping them along is insane.

While forever insisting on a version of the game rooted in an erroneous nostalgia, and the skills they think compliments that version.
heaven forbid any player should manage to close in on a oldbois club record..

#banished
 

BobbyClarkeFan16

Registered User
Nov 29, 2005
10,810
3,951
Goderich, Ontario
To pay a premium asset, you need to believe the player has star potential (or let’s say top of the lineup). And those players just don’t tend to shake loose at age 20-22. It’s possible Jiricek ends up so good at ES, that he’s a top pair player. But it won’t be through pure skill, which just adds more risk in acquiring.

Someone like Kent Johnson is a guy I’d have been calling about every week. Maybe they could’ve even had him. Short of that, you target the Tomasinos and Frosts. The league is full of ‘em. It’s how Vegas and Seattle were built!
I'm wondering if Johnson could be had, especially with Monahan, Fantilli and Sillinger all playing center. I don't know if Flyers management would consider giving up the pieces for a move for both Johnson and Jiricek, but it certainly raises some possibilities.
 
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Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
130,538
171,309
Armored Train
They've had bad luck, but some bad decision making.

Patrick was both, attraction was he was NHL ready to win in the near future, though other players had higher upsides, then bad injury luck
Lindblom was a great 5th rd find, probable top 6 forward, then cancer
Allison had NHL PF potential, couldn't stay healthy
Hart was starting NHL goalie . . .

On the other hand, TK (24), Sanheim (17) are top ten, maybe top five quality picks.

However, starting in 2016 Hextall missed more than he hit, Rubstov, Laberge, JOB, Ratcliffe, Ginning.

I assume picks after the 2nd rd are basically your scouting department, Cates 5th, Fedotov 7th, Ersson 5th,

Under CF/Flahr they drafted better in the first two rounds:
York #14, Brink #34, Foerster (#23), Andrae (#54), Tuomaala (#46), Gauthier (#5)
The problem was trading away picks

Given their D+1 and D+2, the last two drafts look pretty solid, but it's too early to know.

It isn't a coincidence that the best managed teams tend to be the luckiest while the worst managed teams tend to be unluckiest.

It ain't actually luck.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,099
22,248
The fact that Briere hasn't made a move, but is actively talking, is a good thing.

Means they're in no rush, they're looking at young assets, and they don't take a playoff run seriously, that is, not to the extent they'll spend real assets to make one happen.

The GM who feels no urgency is the one likely to get the better of a deal.

Risto is a good example, his value is up, but may be higher near the TDL, and even higher this summer if the rumors of a big cap jump are realized and he only has 2x5 left on his deal. So hold out for that 1st rd pick, and figure out what you'll take to make it happen (see Walker).
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,099
22,248
Reminder: Everyone else overrates prospects.

We do this with every single generation. They just haven't had time to fail yet. :laugh:
There are three layers of failure:
1) D+1, D+2, before they're even pros, a good proportion fall short, see Kaplan for example
2) AHL, rookie struggles, some look promising until they become pros and can't get over the hump
3) NHL players who simply don't live up to expectations (Provorov, Patrick).

Most of your picks after the third round never get past (1)
A lot of 2nd rd and later round survivors get derailed in (2)
(3) requires a high enough pick that you can be a NHL player yet come up short

Obviously you can get a good read on who'll pass the first hurdle after 2 years
The 2nd hurdle might take 4-5 years. A couple AHL seasons, in and out of the lineup, then out.
The third takes about the same, b/c a top 20 pick should be a good NHL starter by year 5.
 

BobbyClarkeFan16

Registered User
Nov 29, 2005
10,810
3,951
Goderich, Ontario
The fact that Briere hasn't made a move, but is actively talking, is a good thing.

Means they're in no rush, they're looking at young assets, and they don't take a playoff run seriously, that is, not to the extent they'll spend real assets to make one happen.

The GM who feels no urgency is the one likely to get the better of a deal.

Risto is a good example, his value is up, but may be higher near the TDL, and even higher this summer if the rumors of a big cap jump are realized and he only has 2x5 left on his deal. So hold out for that 1st rd pick, and figure out what you'll take to make it happen (see Walker).
He sat on Laughton for how long and now there's no team that will give up a first and a second for him. Nothing wrong with being cautious, but you can also sit for too long and a player can very easily lose their value or someone else can jump in. It's time for Danny to shit or get off the pot. He knows what he has to work with.
 

Chicken N Raffls

Here for the chaos and lolz
Nov 7, 2022
3,804
7,946
Douglassville
If they don’t move them at the deadline, it will be because it makes more sense in the offseason.
20221215_201147.gif
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
193,422
43,708
But also you cannot move them in the offseason because value is higher at the TDL.


And ever in a circle we go
I mean, yeah, if you don’t get your deal in the off-season, then it makes more sense to try at the trade deadline.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,099
22,248
If you can't get a pick in the top 50, and the player isn't a pending UFA, you might as well wait b/c the difference between say a 3rd and 4th pick is far less than the value of a 2nd rd pick. It's no different than drafting for upside and accepting a lower floor.

Risto is a good example, if his contract makes it hard to get value at the TDL, gamble you'll get something better this summer when it's easier to work around the remaining 2 years of his contract.
 

JojoTheWhale

"You should keep it." -- Striiker
May 22, 2008
35,974
111,149
Here’s where I yet again say that delaying a pick decreases the value and at least two people tell me that’s not true.
 

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