The way too early standings predictions

[OMG67]

Yeah, Marelli & Mews are very good. So are Parekh, Christiforo, Von Richter, …and especially Dickinson. It seems a great year for D and goalies.
But best D as stated by Beast, the ‘67s are not there yet. Marelli just won’t equal Punnet as an example.

I think you nailed it with referring to it as the “Back end.” I think with one savvy move to add an OA first pairing kid (if they want to contend) would transform that lineup tremendously.

 

[tjziel]

West
1. London
2. Saginaw
3. Windsor
4. Owen Sound
5. Guelph
6. Flint
7. Sault Ste Marie
8. Erie
9. Kitchener
10. Sarnia

East
1. Sudbury
2. Ottawa
3. North Bay
4. Oshawa
5. Barrie
6. Kingston
7. Brantford
8. Peterborough
9. Mississauga
10. Niagara

 

[Logosarejusttargets]

Apparently Cam Allen is out until the new year, wonder how that will play inot Guelph's first half results - obviously he is a polarizing player - with a huge potential that seemed to take a step back last year, but I think any team would want to have him.

 

[HockeyPops]

Guelph should be good enough even without Allen for the first half. They get a free deadline addition, plus it allows them to get another player some valuable ice team early on before they start shortening the bench in the second half of the season.

 

[OHL4Life]

saginaw
owen sound
london
guelph
windsor
sault ste marie
flint
erie
kitchener
sarnia


sudbury
ottawa
north bay
kingston
mississauga
barrie
oshawa
brantford
peterborough


some interesting questions.

west
saginaw and is oake good enough, same with owen sound and votary and george
london who will score, windsor how long do they hold onto the 04/03s to collect points and can they hold on after they sell? ssm offensvie dpeth isnt great, flint lost a ton and not sure they have the depth. erie better make the playoffs, i dont think kitchener will even try to, sarnia lost way to much, expect gaudreau gone eventually, hes one of the only guys they can sell with value

east
any of the top 4 teams could get to the top, lots of meh. sudbury should be the top team but goalie well see. ottawa has great depth but lacking dynamic stars just yet, may be better next year? north bay will sell but lots of good 04s, may sell the goalie dd to saginaiw? mississauga will be very good in 2024/2025. barrie, who will score and who will play net? oshawa not a ton of offensive depth. oster could be a nice rebound candidate. brantford, just not sure they have much, still early in the rebuild, peterboourgh will be bad, but they won so they are allowed to be bad.

 

[OMG67]

saginaw
owen sound
london
guelph
windsor
sault ste marie
flint
erie
kitchener
sarnia


sudbury
ottawa
north bay
kingston
mississauga
barrie
oshawa
brantford
peterborough


some interesting questions.

west
saginaw and is oake good enough, same with owen sound and votary and george
london who will score, windsor how long do they hold onto the 04/03s to collect points and can they hold on after they sell? ssm offensvie dpeth isnt great, flint lost a ton and not sure they have the depth. erie better make the playoffs, i dont think kitchener will even try to, sarnia lost way to much, expect gaudreau gone eventually, hes one of the only guys they can sell with value

east
any of the top 4 teams could get to the top, lots of meh. sudbury should be the top team but goalie well see. ottawa has great depth but lacking dynamic stars just yet, may be better next year? north bay will sell but lots of good 04s, may sell the goalie dd to saginaiw? mississauga will be very good in 2024/2025. barrie, who will score and who will play net? oshawa not a ton of offensive depth. oster could be a nice rebound candidate. brantford, just not sure they have much, still early in the rebuild, peterboourgh will be bad, but they won so they are allowed to be bad.

It really does look like a mish mash of crap in the OHL this year. Not a lot of concentrated talent in the ‘04 group. It seems somewhat spread out, what little there is of it.

I agree that Sagniaw and Sudbury seem to be the front runners in their respective conferences but not because their rosters are solid. It is more because we really cannot put up a viable contender against them. Not one team stands out to challenge and not one team can stand beside them.

I had Ottawa as a mild seller coming into the summer. But, if Bruzstewicz ends up defected and they trade his rights, all of a sudden Ottawa has the picks to maybe fill a few holes. They add an OA D-Man that can play first pairing and a viable centre to play first line? With their deep back end and depth on the wings, all of a sudden they look really good. That’s why you have them in the #2 hole. But, they could also sell through the deadline. How often would you have a team winning their division also looking like a seller? I think that says a lot about the OHL this season.

 

[StingUpdates]

Guys, guys, guys! It seems as though your phones or computers are auto correcting Sarnia to the bottom of your lists! Sure it's just an honest mistake & you don't mean it.

Is odd how the same error keeps being made though..

 

[dirty12]

It really does look like a mish mash of crap in the OHL this year. Not a lot of concentrated talent in the ‘04 group. It seems somewhat spread out, what little there is of it.

I agree that Sagniaw and Sudbury seem to be the front runners in their respective conferences but not because their rosters are solid. It is more because we really cannot put up a viable contender against them. Not one team stands out to challenge and not one team can stand beside them.

I had Ottawa as a mild seller coming into the summer. But, if Bruzstewicz ends up defected and they trade his rights, all of a sudden Ottawa has the picks to maybe fill a few holes. They add an OA D-Man that can play first pairing and a viable centre to play first line? With their deep back end and depth on the wings, all of a sudden they look really good. That’s why you have them in the #2 hole. But, they could also sell through the deadline. How often would you have a team winning their division also looking like a seller? I think that says a lot about the OHL this season.

The western conference is loaded imo. I think Saginaw has some catching up to do. Two of Guelph, OS & London will most likely add, significantly. I’m not sure Saginaw can add enough to be the best playoff team out of the western conference.
Guelph, NB, Sudbury, Owen Sound, London, Erie all have considerable talent concentrated in the ‘04 class.

 

[Kingpin794]

The western conference is loaded imo. I think Saginaw has some catching up to do. Two of Guelph, OS & London will most likely add, significantly. I’m not sure Saginaw can add enough to be the best playoff team out of the western conference.
Guelph, NB, Sudbury, Owen Sound, London, Erie all have considerable talent concentrated in the ‘04 class.

Erie will have to move those guys this year (or some of them). They have no 2nds or 3rds in 24/25 and no extra ammo to buy when Spence and Co hit their peak. They might be alright up to december but they will likely slide back after a few players are moved.

 

[NOA]

Erie will have to move those guys this year (or some of them). They have no 2nds or 3rds in 24/25 and no extra ammo to buy when Spence and Co hit their peak. They might be alright up to december but they will likely slide back after a few players are moved.

I have them listed with a 2nd in 2024 and their 3rd in 2025 waw conditional on Gilmartin trade - likely tied to OA season which we have to wait and see on. Point still stands though: limited assets

 

[HockeyPops]

Which 2nd do they have? I think NIA has the ER 2 2024 pick.

 

[NOA]

Which 2nd do they have? I think NIA has the ER 2 2024 pick.

Sarnia, as part of Kyrou trade.

 

[HockeyPops]

Didn't they give it to NIA for Fimis?

 

[NOA]

Didn't they give it to NIA for Fimis?

According to all the news on the trade, they gave their own 2024 away. There is zero news report indicating that it was the SAR 2nd they traded. They had 2 seconds, they traded 1 away

 

[HockeyPops]

This is what the database shows the Kyrou trade was:

Alexis Daviault
SAR 4 2023
ER 2 2024
OSH 2 2025
ER 3 2026
NIAG 5 2026

Where is the SAR 2nd?

EDIT: Also, the database shows the SAR 2 2024 was tied up as a conditional to OTT for Moldenhauer. Are you sure Erie has it?

 

[NOA]

This is what the database shows the Kyrou trade was:

Alexis Daviault
SAR 4 2023
ER 2 2024
OSH 2 2025
ER 3 2026
NIAG 5 2026

Where is the SAR 2nd?

EDIT: Also, the database shows the SAR 2 2024 was tied up as a conditional to OTT for Moldenhauer. Are you sure Erie has it?

I respectfully don’t care about the fan database nor follow it for these reasons - it’s often inaccurate. Look at what the teams post or say about it Otters Trade Kyrou to Sarnia for Daviault and Draft Picks

That language is indicating it’s Sarnia’s 2nd round pick. Not sure how you can read it any other way. How did Sarnia get Erie’s 2nd in order to then trade it back to them? Conversely, where did Erie (prior to Fimis trade) ever trade their own 2nd in 2024?
- Prior to that Kyrou trade, Erie still had their own 2nd round pick. That trade then gave them 2 2nds. And this is why I keep my own tabs on their draft picks..

 

[dirty12]

Erie will have to move those guys this year (or some of them). They have no 2nds or 3rds in 24/25 and no extra ammo to buy when Spence and Co hit their peak. They might be alright up to december but they will likely slide back after a few players are moved.

I can see Erie trading an OA and Mysiak, maybe their 19 yr old goalies at some point, but keep Alfano, Fimis, Sova, MacDonald which would still be a considerable amount of talent concentrated in the ‘04 class.

 

[SarniaStingFan]

I respectfully don’t care about the fan database nor follow it for these reasons - it’s often inaccurate. Look at what the teams post or say about it Otters Trade Kyrou to Sarnia for Daviault and Draft Picks

That language is indicating it’s Sarnia’s 2nd round pick. Not sure how you can read it any other way. How did Sarnia get Erie’s 2nd in order to then trade it back to them? Conversely, where did Erie (prior to Fimis trade) ever trade their own 2nd in 2024?
- Prior to that Kyrou trade, Erie still had their own 2nd round pick. That trade then gave them 2 2nds. And this is why I keep my own tabs on their draft picks..

OHL website says it was Erie's 2nd round pick that they traded back to Erie. Here is the link on the OHL site if you would like to take a look: Media Notes - Ontario Hockey League

 

[HockeyPops]

I also approach the draft pick database with a fair amount of skepticism, but I still treat it as a valuable resource. But agree, the information in there can easily be wrong. However, it is quite rare that the details of the trade would be recorded wrong in the database. That information comes directly from the league media notes. By the way, you can still read the media notes on the OHL website for the Kyrou trade. They state the pick was the ER 2 2024 that came back to Erie in that trade. I would trust that a heck of a lot more than trusting the language in a news article.

But let's look at the ER 2 2024 pick. The first mention of it in the database is that the ER 2 2024 was conditionally traded away to OSH for Cirelli in 2017 as follows:
Allan McShane
ER 4th 2018
ER 2nd 2022
ER 2nd 2023
ER 6th 2020*
ER 2nd 2024*

Without knowing what those conditions were, I assume they were all met and that pick went to Oshawa. Cirelli played for Erie and McShane played for Oshawa. I don't see any condition that wouldn't have been met.

Now, the next mention of that pick is when Sarnia traded it for Kyrou. How did Sarnia get it? If you look through all the Oshawa trades between Cirelli and Kyrou, there are very few with conditions attached. My educated guess is the Jordan Kooy trade in Jan 2020 ended up sending the ER 2 2024 pick instead of the KIT 3 2024 pick. Here is what Oshawa sent in that trade as recorded:
WSR 2 2020
OSH 5 2022
KIT 3 2024*

Yes, I am just guessing. But I think there is a pretty good chance that that's what happened with the ER 2 2024 pick.

EDIT: Also, that KIT 3 2024 pick was sent by Oshawa in a separate trade to London in December 2021 for Rolofs. So we know that whatever the condition was on the Kooy trade must have changed the trade from the original. Also we know the Kooy worked out very well in Oshawa starting 21 games after the trade, so in all likelihood the condition would have caused the trade to cost more for Oshawa in the end. Hence the upgrade of the KIT 3 2024 to the ER 2 2024 making sense.

 

[NOA]

OHL website says it was Erie's 2nd round pick that they traded back to Erie. Here is the link on the OHL site if you would like to take a look: Media Notes - Ontario Hockey League

Okay, but then help me understand where Sarnia ever had Erie’s 2nd in 2024. How did they ever get that? Because I’ve been tracking for the last 2-3 years and never was tied to anything and then looking at the biggest trades they have made in recent years, they never moved their 2nd 2024

 

[NOA]

I also approach the draft pick database with a fair amount of skepticism, but I still treat it as a valuable resource. But agree, the information in there can easily be wrong. However, it is quite rare that the details of the trade would be recorded wrong in the database. That information comes directly from the league media notes. By the way, you can still read the media notes on the OHL website for the Kyrou trade. They state the pick was the ER 2 2024 that came back to Erie in that trade. I would trust that a heck of a lot more than trusting the language in a news article.

But let's look at the ER 2 2024 pick. The first mention of it in the database is that the ER 2 2024 was conditionally traded away to OSH for Cirelli in 2017 as follows:
Allan McShane
ER 4th 2018
ER 2nd 2022
ER 2nd 2023
ER 6th 2020*
ER 2nd 2024*

Without knowing what those conditions were, I assume they were all met and that pick went to Oshawa. Cirelli played for Erie and McShane played for Oshawa. I don't see any condition that wouldn't have been met.

Now, the next mention of that pick is when Sarnia traded it for Kyrou. How did Sarnia get it? If you look through all the Oshawa trades between Cirelli and Kyrou, there are very few with conditions attached. My educated guess is the Jordan Kooy trade in Jan 2020 ended up sending the ER 2 2024 pick instead of the KIT 3 2024 pick. Here is what Oshawa sent in that trade as recorded:
WSR 2 2020
OSH 5 2022
KIT 3 2024*

Yes, I am just guessing. But I think there is a pretty good chance that that's what happened with the ER 2 2024 pick.

Ha, there is it .. the Cirelli conditions. Can’t tell you have often this comes up

Everything I have on that condition from the Cirelli trade was that it was based on Erie getting another 2nd round pick, in an earlier year, since they had zero assets and were trading 7 years out (which you could do back at that time). In other words, Oshawa said okay we will hold your 2024 2nd but whenever you get an earlier 2nd - we get that one instead. I don’t remember exactly when it happened, but Erie obviously acquired an earlier 2nd and then sent that to OSH but retained their 2024. Mark Scheig posted about it long ago, ahead of a draft, because he learned the info directly from the team. I have already included that in my personal database.

Not sure how the Kooy trade would have went from a 3rd conditional to an improved 2nd round pick when Kooy was acquired right before COVID shortage and never played as OA due to shutdown. So if it was tied to OSH postseason or an OA season, which it often is, that didn’t happen thanks to COVID.

Also I don’t dispute the OHL media notes are a good source but the article I posted isn’t just a random news article - it’s directly copied from the team’s release which should be considered reliable as well.

 

[dirty12]

Ha, there is it .. the Cirelli conditions. Can’t tell you have often this comes up

Everything I have on that condition from the Cirelli trade was that it was based on Erie getting another 2nd round pick, in an earlier year, since they had zero assets and were trading 7 years out (which you could do back at that time). In other words, Oshawa said okay we will hold your 2024 2nd but whenever you get an earlier 2nd - we get that one instead. I don’t remember exactly when it happened, but Erie obviously acquired an earlier 2nd and then sent that to OSH but retained their 2024. Mark Scheig posted about it long ago, ahead of a draft, because he learned the info directly from the team. I have already included that in my personal database.

Not sure how the Kooy trade would have went from a 3rd conditional to an improved 2nd round pick when Kooy was acquired right before COVID shortage and never played as OA due to shutdown. So if it was tied to OSH postseason or an OA season, which it often is, that didn’t happen thanks to COVID.

Also I don’t dispute the OHL media notes are a good source but the article I posted isn’t just a random news article - it’s directly copied from the team’s release which should be considered reliable as well.

Agree Oshawa was given the replacement pick well in advance (maybe 2019 draft) of the conditional Erie (‘24?) 2nd (according to my memory it was ‘22 or ‘23 2nd).

 

[frontsfan67]

East

1 Ottawa
2 Sudbury
3 Kingston
4 Mississauga
5 Oshawa
6 Brandtford
7 Barrie
8 North Bay
9 Peteborough
10 Niagara

West

1 London
2 Saginaw
3 Owen Sound
4 Soo
5 Erie
6 Guelph
7 Windsor
8 Flint
9 Kitchener
10 Sarnia

Prediction after trades etc -

London over Kingston in finals

 

[frontsfan67]

Also I don’t know how to do this on here however if there was a way for someone to create a player trade rumour forum or prediction forum that would be pretty cool

 

[OHL4Life]

I have them listed with a 2nd in 2024 and their 3rd in 2025 waw conditional on Gilmartin trade - likely tied to OA season which we have to wait and see on. Point still stands though: limited assets

i dont want to speculate and get banned, but i can tell you that erie has sarnia's second round pick. thats from the official list