The Uncovered Truth About PDO and SH%

[ItWasJustified]

Pretty much exactly what was expected to happen.

Did people also expect Demko to be sidelined from March 9 to the start of the playoffs?

Just that they were overachieving as well, which was true.

There's no such thing called overachieving. Please tell me how you achieve above your ability?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Did people also expect Demko to be sidelined from March 9 to the start of the playoffs?

Demko getting injured? No.
Demko dropping off from 0.918 pre-Feb 18th to 0.907? Yeah probably.
The Vancouver team dropping from 13.01% pre-Feb 18th to 9.42% shooting? Absolutely.

There's no such thing called overachieving. Please tell me how you achieve above your ability?

Overacheiving means being achieved in an unsustainable way.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Overacheiving means being achieved in an unsustainable way.

No. it does not. Overachieving is not a word because no matter how, it's impossible to do better than your ability, as a team or as an individual.

You can say that the Vancouver Canucks have played at the top of their abilitie, or close to it, but you cannot say they have overachieved, simply because there are no such thing.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Overachieving is not a word …

Somebody better alert the dictionary.

Dictionary.com | Meanings & Definitions of English Words

 

[OilWagon]

No. it does not. Overachieving is not a word because no matter how, it's impossible to do better than your ability, as a team or as an individual.

You can say that the Vancouver Canucks have played at the top of their abilitie, or close to it, but you cannot say they have overachieved, simply because there are no such thing.

There's way too much luck and variance in Hockey, of course teams can overachieve.

 

[krutovsdonut]

So since Feb, (28 games), the Canucks are 21st in the NHL in goals for /game and 16th in the NHL in shooting % at 5v5.

If you look at all strength shooting percentage its even worse. 26th in goals for. 25th in shooting percentage.

The explanation is that the Canucks were on a giant heater for the first half of the year.

There is no magic system.

nonsense. if you watched them roll over anaheim and arizona recently you'd have to admit there's more to it than "they were all just on a heater, hur de hur". what a sadly weak necro-chirp. what i will say is that the canucks were on a score first heater and got used to playing with the lead and are now really struggling to play disciplined hockey from behind.

the larger explanation is that good teams have adjusted to the canucks system and exposed their defence, plus multiple canucks players have gone very cold and not just come off a heater. secondary scoring especially fell apart after the allstar break with joshua getting hurt and blueger and suter falling off the planet and lindholm coming in and sucking the air out of the building. pettersson has been playing like ass. plus demko has gone down and desmith is letting in deflating goals.

they still dominate ozone possession, generate chances and walk over lesser teams, but good teams have worked out the canucks weaknesses and the canucks have not adjusted and are now trying to learn how to play from behind, which has been painful and eratic with a ton of blown coverage.

 

[ryan callahan]

A team can be sustainably higher or lower than 100 in PDO, but pretty much all teams that proclaim their extreme outlier to be special fall back.

This thread seems to have been sparked because of Vancouver. Well...

Vancouver PDO:
Season - Feb 17th (when you created this thread): 1.044
Feb 18th - Present: 0.973

Pretty much exactly what was expected to happen.

Miller started playing like absolute garbage after looking like a top 10 league center in the first half.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Somebody better alert the dictionary.

Dictionary.com | Meanings & Definitions of English Words

Yeah, please tell me how you perform above your ability/potential? It's a made up word that doesn't actually mean anything since it's impossible to perform over your ability/potential.

There's way too much luck and variance in Hockey, of course teams can overachieve.

How do you achieve more than your ability or potential? You literally can't. If you perform more than your perceived ability or potential THAT IS YOUR ability and potential.

Simple as.

 

[ijuka]

There's no such thing called overachieving. Please tell me how you achieve above your ability?

By getting lucky.

 

[ItWasJustified]

By getting lucky.

And how do you achieve luck? I give you a hint: You don't achieve luck by standing still on the ice.

 

[Pip]

No. it does not. Overachieving is not a word because no matter how, it's impossible to do better than your ability, as a team or as an individual.

You can say that the Vancouver Canucks have played at the top of their abilitie, or close to it, but you cannot say they have overachieved, simply because there are no such thing.

I just landed 4 tails in a row. Really living up to my potential as a coin flipper.

 

[ItWasJustified]

I just landed 4 tails in a row. Really living up to my potential as a coin flipper.

Not an argument.

 

[Love]

The Canucks are interesting because as soon as they started to dominate possession they started losing games. They were top of the league when they had high PDO and below average corsi. Now they have outstanding corsi since the all star break with a poor shooting percentage (and no demko).

Someone can fact check me on all this but iirc on the broadcast last night they said the Canucks are second in the NHL in high danger chances for since the all star break yet they’re 20 something in goals.

 

[Pip]

Not an argument.

I mean you’re the one trying to argue that luck isn’t a factor in winning hockey games.

 

[NyQuil]

I mean you’re the one trying to argue that luck isn’t a factor in winning hockey games.

Luck is just a made-up word, it doesn't even.....oh wait, no it does, my bad.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So the Canucks started playing better from an analytics perspective, but started having less luck with shooting percentage and save percentage?

Wow that's truly unbelievable, if only there were a 100+ page thread where we discussed the possibility of that happening and were wildly shouted down, this truly is a revelation

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Yeah, please tell me how you perform above your ability/potential? It's a made up word that doesn't actually mean anything since it's impossible to perform over your ability/potential.

Every word is a made up word. That one happens to be officially in the English language - something that you apparently struggle with (i.e. reading the definition I so handily linked will blow your mind!)

 

[ItWasJustified]

I mean you’re the one trying to argue that luck isn’t a factor in winning hockey games.

Please tell me how you quantify luck.

Every word is a made up word. That one happens to be officially in the English language - something that you apparently struggle with (i.e. reading the definition I so handily linked will blow your mind!)

How do you achieve more than your ability/potential?

 

[dgibb10]

I think all of the "expected blah / blah" in hockey is nonsense.

It is used to support views that aren't based on actual numbers, but based on projected numbers.

In baseball, statistics like WHIP are based on real actual data.

Not "expected" nonsense.

Baseball uses a shitton of expected stats nowadays. Get with the times

 

[kingsholygrail]

Did people also expect Demko to be sidelined from March 9 to the start of the playoffs?


There's no such thing called overachieving. Please tell me how you achieve above your ability?

When you achieve over expectation, you overachieve. It has nothing to do with ability.

 

[BKarchitect]

How do you achieve more than your ability/potential?

By waking up and looking at my spouse?

 

[ItWasJustified]

When you achieve over expectation, you overachieve. It has nothing to do with ability.

So achieving something has nothing to do with ability? Lol, got ya.

 

[iamitter]

So achieving something has nothing to do with ability? Lol, got ya.

Sometimes, yeah. It's not the sole factor.

In any case, you're using a strawman. Overachieving doesn't mean achieving more than the absolute max potential of any possibility that can ever happen. It means achieving above what the expected and most likely out come is - one that is, in the long run, unsustainable based on what other factors state is going to happen.

For example, if you a flip a coin 10 times, your expected number of heads is 5. If you hit 7, that's overachieving - and unlikely to continue. It doesn't mean you need to hit 11 to overachieve.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Sometimes, yeah. It's not the sole factor.

Yes it is.

In any case, you're using a strawman. Overachieving doesn't mean achieving more than the absolute max potential of any possibility that can ever happen.

No, I'm not and yes it does when it comes to humans doing something.

It means achieving above what the expected and most likely out come is

According to who? Who is expecting? You, me, everybody, somebody, anybody?

For example, if you a flip a coin 10 times, your expected number of heads is 5. If you hit 7, that's overachieving - and unlikely to continue. It doesn't mean you need to hit 11 to overachieve.

Flipping a coin is not, and will never be a game based on innate and trained skills like hockey so the comparison is absurd.

 

[Romang67]

I'm glad we've moved from discussing how regression works on relatively small numbers to discussing if dictionaries are lying about what words mean.