The Tanks

[theguardianII]

Thought about teams that might throw out the baby with the bath water.

It looks like Pittsburgh might decide to go for a lottery pick. They already have two 1rsts in this year's draft and could easily get another couple of picks if some players are shuttled off.

It could be costly but if rebuilding then retention isn't so bad combined with the massive cap increase.
What team might take on Karlsson for 5 mil or less if a three way deal? Malkin if he waived at 3 mil. They might not get 1rst's in return but they could get multiple picks and maybe an A prospect.
They would be in a position to take on a bad contract for a pick as well.

What other teams might decide to "go for the gold"?

Click to read more...

 

[kerrabria]

The 2025 draft is supposed to be very weak, so not surprising that we didn't see any teams launch a tank this season.

Pittsburgh is the only team at a stage where a full rebuild and tank would make sense, but they can't (which is probably a good thing because those usually don't work). Crosby, Malkin, and Letang will not play anywhere else. Karlsson's contract already has retention, it can't go lower than $5m.

There are a few Western Conference orgs that have more underperforming vets than good prospects, but all those bad teams just means the Wild Card is wide open, and teams don't tank if they see a path to the playoffs.

 

[eojsmada]

Schaefer is worth tanking for, but aside from the top 4-ish, it's going to be crap shoot.

 

[Coffee]

Schaefer is worth tanking for, but aside from the top 4-ish, it's going to be crap shoot.

And if you had to guess, who’s winning 1st overall this year?

 

[StickShift]

The 2025 draft is supposed to be very weak, so not surprising that we didn't see any teams launch a tank this season.

Is the top of the 1st weaker than typical? Or are there significant drop-offs as the rounds go on?

I wonder too if it is weak or just delayed development. We’re probably close to the end of the Covid-development disruption. Some of these kids didn’t have the usual hockey development path at ages 13-14 and that could be echoing in their junior careers.

 

[eojsmada]

And if you had to guess, who’s winning 1st overall this year?

Probably SJ, Nashville or Chicago. But the ping pong balls always make things interesting and the NHL hasn't come out and said how the draft lottery is being rigged done this year.

 

[kerrabria]

Is the top of the 1st weaker than typical? Or are there significant drop-offs as the rounds go on?

I wonder too if it is weak or just delayed development. We’re probably close to the end of the Covid-development disruption. Some of these kids didn’t have the usual hockey development path at ages 13-14 and that could be echoing in their junior careers.

No idea, I don't pay attention to prospects, just have heard that repeatedly this year. Also think it's noteworthy that this is the first time in years that I (someone who consumes A LOT of NHL content) couldn't name a single 2025 prospect at the start of the season. The lack of coverage and interest kind of validates what I've heard people say.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Tanks a lot.

 

[BondraEra]

Is it tanking if we already knew these teams would be bad?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Schaefer is worth tanking for

We hear that every year, and it’s often not true. For the amount of damage it does to an organization when they truly tank, and the very high risk of losing the lottery, only in rare Lemieux/Lindros/Crosby/McDavid scenarios is it worth tanking as opposed to just being a shitty team.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Flyers pretty obviously decided to go for the tank

 

[eojsmada]

We hear that every year, and it’s often not true. For the amount of damage it does to an organization when they truly tank, and the very high risk of losing the lottery, only in rare Lemieux/Lindros/Crosby/McDavid scenarios is it worth tanking as opposed to just being a shitty team.

Yeah...I would tend to agree, but it's often the case that there is a player in the top 3 of almost every draft that would be considered a franchise cornerstone and is just as valuable to the growth of the team as any "generational"-esque player.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Is it tanking if we already knew these teams would be bad?

Yep.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Habs will be throwing in the towel over the break I think

 

[BondraEra]

Yep.

Why? These teams aren’t doing anything but playing badly. There hasn’t been a dismantling of rosters and selling off for parts.

Tanking is a specific action(s) to me. Merely more than just a bad team being bad.

 

[chi777]

Don't forget about the eternal tank of the Buffalo Sabres.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah...I would tend to agree, but it's often the case that there is a player in the top 3 of almost every draft that would be considered a franchise cornerstone and is just as valuable to the growth of the team as any "generational"-esque player.

That’s where I feel like it’s ok to just be a trash team for a few years, without a tank.

Like let’s say hypothetically a decade ago some team didn’t quite tank and ended up picking 4th every year due to just cellar-dwelling for a while. This is who they’d have drafted 08-15…

Evander Kane - Mitch Marner - Ryan Johansen
Sam Bennett

Alex Pietrangelo - Seth Jones
Adam Larsson - Griffin Reinhart (if they passed on Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba, etc)


Granted, that roster doesn’t have a generational talent. But Pietrangelo was the best player on a Cup winner, and Marner is a legit HOF’er as the 1C. They’ve got crazy depth at D, especially if they make a better pick than Reinhart. That’s the backbone of a Cup contender, purely based on draft capital. And it doesn’t require them to be bleeding-eyes unwatchable with a culture of deliberately losing just to get Tavares or something.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Why? These teams aren’t doing anything but playing badly. There hasn’t been a dismantling of rosters and selling off for parts.

Tanking is a specific action(s) to me. Merely more than just a bad team being bad.

Oilers were in cap hell and sucking, yet everyone said they were tanking

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Some of you have an exceptionally liberal definition of "tanking".

No matter what teams' strategies are, there will always be a team that finishes worst overall.

 

[wetcoast]

Thought about teams that might throw out the baby with the bath water.

It looks like Pittsburgh might decide to go for a lottery pick. They already have two 1rsts in this year's draft and could easily get another couple of picks if some players are shuttled off.

It could be costly but if rebuilding then retention is so bad combined with the massive cap increase.
What team might take on Karlsson for 5 mil or less if a three way deal? Malkin if he waived at 3 mil. They might not get 1rst's in return but they could get multiple picks and maybe an A prospect.
They would be in a position to take on a bad contract for a pick as well.

What other teams might decide to "go for the gold"?

Pittsburgh is just really old and the whole notion of this thread is somewhat misplaced right?

 

[Oddbob]

The 2025 draft is supposed to be very weak, so not surprising that we didn't see any teams launch a tank this season.

Pittsburgh is the only team at a stage where a full rebuild and tank would make sense, but they can't (which is probably a good thing because those usually don't work). Crosby, Malkin, and Letang will not play anywhere else. Karlsson's contract already has retention, it can't go lower than $5m.

There are a few Western Conference orgs that have more underperforming vets than good prospects, but all those bad teams just means the Wild Card is wide open, and teams don't tank if they see a path to the playoffs.

What? San Jose and Chicago definitely built for tanking. Even Philly I question because of the goaltending they are running this season. A team .885 save percentage and they made no moves eventhough they have a decent record with that goaltending.

 

[MHO]

I'm more interested in who will be the worst team in the league next year. With McKenna coming out, will it be another year of San Jose and Chicago or will another team(s) sell off over the summer to out tank the tanks?

Even though San Jose and Chicago are still clearly the worst 2 teams in the league, they are definitely better than they were last year and will likely improve further going into next year. So there will be room at the bottom if someone wants it.

 

[Oddbob]

I also don't count Pittsburgh. Every single team that has a long run at the top and trades top assets will eventually bottom out. It is inevitable. Doesn't matter who the GM is.

Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, Chicago, and lesser extent LA all had top runs and all bottomed out. WSH, BOS and PIT and sooner than later TB will join the list. You can't replace top flight and HOF level players when they retire.

I can't think of a single team that had a long run at the top and didn't eventually bottom out. Even before the cap, it was hard to do that, as losing even one top flight player is a major loss to any team.

 

[Djp]

The 2025 draft is supposed to be very weak, so not surprising that we didn't see any teams launch a tank this season.

Pittsburgh is the only team at a stage where a full rebuild and tank would make sense, but they can't (which is probably a good thing because those usually don't work). Crosby, Malkin, and Letang will not play anywhere else. Karlsson's contract already has retention, it can't go lower than $5m.

I'm sorry but thanks usually work.

In tanks teams usually gage a coup ki r top t picks and some in top 10-15.
Look at

Chicago
04-3, 05-7,06-3,07-1 **
LA
07-4,08-2,09-5 **
Pittsburgh
02-5,03-1,04-2,05-1,06-2
Washington
04-1,06-4, 07-5, **
Colorado
09-3, 11-2,13-1,17-4 **
Tampa bay
08-1, 09-2, 10-6, 13-4 **
Florida
10-3,11-3, 13-2, 14-1 **
St louis
06-1, 08-4 **

** drafted a few other players in top 15

This will apply to Carolina, Toronto, edmonton, and s few other teams if they win the xup

 

[matt trick]

Someone has to finish bottom 5. San Jose and Chicago suck. Buffalo, Seattle, and Nashville should be better. I actually think Philly and Montreal have played pretty well for their talent level. Calgary has completely shocked me- I thought they'd be bottom 5 this year. Wolf has been outstanding, but it's not just good goaltending.

Next year will be more interesting. Detroit, Ottawa, CBJ, Anaheim, and Montreal (to a lesser degree) look to have left the bottom 10.

Can the GMs of Chicago, San Jose, Buffalo, Nashville, or Seattle afford to be bottom 5 next year? I don't think you can be bottom three all three years of Bedard's ELC. The same will be true for Grier and Celebrini, but the following year. I think it's the right move for Nash and Seattle, but back to back years of bottom 5 may result in GMs being fired, can't imagine Trotz or Rutherford are okay with that.

Philly seems to be selling off some assets with Frost, Farabee, and perhaps Laughton and Risto. If I were a betting man, I'd have them bottom 5, but even shorthanded Sanheim, Torts, Michkov and Konecny is a start to being competitive. I also think the org trust's their direction more than Buff, Nash, or Seattle.

Buffalo is more talented than each of these teams, but lack of true centers and RHDmen is a difficult problem to solve. Pitt seems ready for a rebuild, but the Crosby factor may singlehandedly keep them from pursuing that avenue. Islanders would look a lot weaker without Nelson and don't have as much cap as most of the other teams.

Ultimately someone will be bottom 5 next year- my guess is San Jose, Chicago, Philly, Seattle, and NYI, but someone will surprisingly disappoint.