The stock market thread.

[Ted Hoffman]

Market halted - hit the circuit breakers. Think there’s 3 trips it can fall through and then it’s closed for the day . I expect we will hit that before lunch time.

After we bottomed around -11.5%, we've rebounded into the -9% to -10% range and kind of hung there with a few dips. We might have found a floor for the day. (Not for the year.) I'm watching small caps right now and I'm seeing more stabilization, though not actual buying. The S&P is trending up, but I don't know how much of that is buying on the very largest names while the rest of the index gets nuked. There's a very slow trend up at the moment, but not enough for me to say "OK, I'd get back long with caution." Regardless, it's pretty clear that "cut rates to zero, give half a trillion to banks to lend" got greeted by the markets with a fat middle finger - as it should have been.

I bought spy puts, shorts, and inverse index etfs

what else is there?

Caution. I would make sure you've got stops in place in case the market closes (I think it's greater than 50% chance) and can get out of those positions before it happens. Even though you were right about what was going to happen and how it would have impacted the market, if you can't actually execute on that because you're frozen and you can't exercise options you could get f***ed - and not the "I went to the strip club, picked up this hot girl and we went back to my place and banged like bunnies all weekend" kind of f***ed, the "Ned Beatty in Deliverance" kind.

I would also say to be prepared for continued volatility. That part isn't done yet, and some people are going to get their faces ripped off trying to trade this on both sides.

 

[Thucydides]

After we bottomed around -11.5%, we've rebounded into the -9% to -10% range and kind of hung there with a few dips. We might have found a floor for the day. (Not for the year.) I'm watching small caps right now and I'm seeing more stabilization, though not actual buying. The S&P is trending up, but I don't know how much of that is buying on the very largest names while the rest of the index gets nuked. There's a very slow trend up at the moment, but not enough for me to say "OK, I'd get back long with caution." Regardless, it's pretty clear that "cut rates to zero, give half a trillion to banks to lend" got greeted by the markets with a fat middle finger - as it should have been.


Caution. I would make sure you've got stops in place in case the market closes (I think it's greater than 50% chance) and can get out of those positions before it happens. Even though you were right about what was going to happen and how it would have impacted the market, if you can't actually execute on that because you're frozen and you can't exercise options you could get f***ed - and not the "I went to the strip club, picked up this hot girl and we went back to my place and banged like bunnies all weekend" kind of f***ed, the "Ned Beatty in Deliverance" kind.

I would also say to be prepared for continued volatility. That part isn't done yet, and some people are going to get their faces ripped off trying to trade this on both sides.

very well said. I would be worried about shorting right now in case the market closes for a week, and then comes back and goes on a roar and you’re burned.

But you could make a killing shorting right now.

seems the market is stabilizing for the moment. I’m trying to find my entry point. I don’t think we are there yet though.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I don't know why anyone would jump in at this point unless you're a day trader. This is just the beginning. The damage to the economy is significant and unknown. As the old saying goes. "Don't try to catch falling knives".

 

[MaxV]

Jeez, I thought I was buying big bargains last week...

I’m transferring more cash to my brokerage account. Time to go bigger.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I don't know why anyone would jump in at this point unless you're a day trader. This is just the beginning. The damage to the economy is significant and unknown. As the old saying goes. "Don't try to catch falling knives".

Jeez, I thought I was buying big bargains last week...

I’m transferring more cash to my brokerage account. Time to go bigger.

This is why we're not done going down - because too many people are still trying to buy the dip and not enough are saying "f*** it, I'm done, I'm taking what's left of my gains over the last ~11 years and going home." This is a really bad place to be trying to catch a falling knife on faith that it will all go up again. If you want an idea of what to expect for this market go look at the Nikkei the last 30 years. We're doing everything Japan has done, even though we told them for 20+ years not to do it because it wasn't going to fix anything.

All that said, I don't have the balls to do it, but if I did I would leverage the f*** out of everything I have and go bullish on the market for the rest of today on the bet that we go from -11% to +11% in a single session. But only for today. The yearly lows aren't in here.

 

[Thucydides]

I don’t understand the market sometimes - the news out there is nothing but bad and yet the market is climbing ? Seems odd.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I don’t understand the market sometimes - the news out there is nothing but bad and yet the market is climbing ? Seems odd.

Short Covering and the Fed buying stuff will do that.

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Oh yeah, we're probably going to see more than a dozen +/- 5%+ days over the next month until it finally settles.
I think when the VIX gets back down to 30 we might be able to see the bottom.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

This is why we're not done going down - because too many people are still trying to buy the dip and not enough are saying "f*** it, I'm done, I'm taking what's left of my gains over the last ~11 years and going home." This is a really bad place to be trying to catch a falling knife on faith that it will all go up again. If you want an idea of what to expect for this market go look at the Nikkei the last 30 years. We're doing everything Japan has done, even though we told them for 20+ years not to do it because it wasn't going to fix anything.

All that said, I don't have the balls to do it, but if I did I would leverage the f*** out of everything I have and go bullish on the market for the rest of today on the bet that we go from -11% to +11% in a single session. But only for today. The yearly lows aren't in here.

As crazy as the last little while has been we are only down ~30% on the major indices. When you go sector by sector you find lots that are 50%+ down. Just think about this logically.

Is anyone buying a car right now? What about a house? Is anyone paying their loans? Going out to eat? Buying TVs? ect ect.

I don't see a V shaped recovery. Just a Fed pump, QE and bailouts.

 

[BahlDeep]

I think the panic is setting for amazing buying opportunities. A lot of people are getting out because either they think the world is ending (hyperbole) or because they need liquidity.

If you are investing money you don't need in the short term, you would be a damn fool to not buy this market.

And stay away from Energy

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I don't think they can print enough money to solve this problem

Print that money!

Fed says it will offer an additional $500 billion in overnight repo funding markets

 

[Mildan]

i just bought barclays shares at 0.84. considering they pay 9p /share dividends this year, I think it's quite remarkable value..

 

[VanillaCoke]

I think the panic is setting for amazing buying opportunities. A lot of people are getting out because either they think the world is ending (hyperbole) or because they need liquidity.

If you are investing money you don't need in the short term, you would be a damn fool to not buy this market.

And stay away from Energy

Why avoid energy stocks?

 

[BahlDeep]

Why avoid energy stocks?

Because it's a commodity where a country like Saudi Arabia have too much influence on the price.

Way too much geopolitical risk. You can find way better opportunities somewhere else. Don't let the yield fool you.

In 10 years, you made no money with Energy, and that's before the market even crashes this year.

 

[Ainec]

I'm shorting peloton and tesla right now

Thoughts

Cashed out some of my other puts

 

[BahlDeep]

I'm shorting peloton and tesla right now

Thoughts

Cashed out some of my other puts

I'm not too sure about Tesla.. you just have to hope the market doesn't rebound....or Elon musk tweeting that this crisis is stupid

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Because it's a commodity where a country like Saudi Arabia have too much influence on the price.

Way too much geopolitical risk. You can find way better opportunities somewhere else. Don't let the yield fool you.

In 10 years, you made no money with Energy, and that's before the market even crashes this year.
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But if you got out after the first six years, you banked. Oil is at $28 now. Not a chance it stays remotely close to that. If you can hold for a year, I’d go in

 

[BahlDeep]

But if you got out after the first six years, you banked. Oil is at $28 now. Not a chance it stays remotely close to that. If you can hold for a year, I’d go in

Sure, but I rather not play the market timing game, especially when it comes to energy.

There's better opportunities somewhere else.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Sure, but I rather not play the market timing game, especially when it comes to energy.

There's better opportunities somewhere else.

Oil hasn’t been this low in a long, long time. This is a great opportunity.

 

[BahlDeep]

Oil hasn’t been this low in a long, long time. This is a great opportunity.

I didn't say it wasn't. I said I would be more comfortable shooting myself in the foot then owning oil.

 

[MaxV]

I had plans to pay off my mortgage ahead of time, in 12 months, but I might have to extend that a bit.

 

[LarryFisherman]

I had plans to pay off my mortgage ahead of time, in 12 months, but I might have to extend that a bit.

tell me what it's like at the top

I'm $365,000 away lmfao

 

[Ainec]

Mrw peloton pumping while spy tanking again

 

[BahlDeep]

Air Canada looks very very attractive right now

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Air Canada looks very very attractive right now

I've been throwing some stuff at them