The stock market thread.

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Vanguard index fund down to 51 dollars from the high 2-3 weeks ago of 62 bucks. Haven’t started buying in yet. I think I will dip a toe in the 40’s and then buy down to the bottom, whenever that is, and buy back up to where i bought in.

Microsoft is also a good stock to watch . 2008 crash it fell to 20 bucks a share - sits @ 150 a share today. Think I’ll take out multiple loans if I see it that low again .

what’s everyone else watching?

I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.
 
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I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.
Apple already said they have shipped out a lot less phones. You need people to work to sell consumer goods. With more and more countries going under quarantine it will lead to less supply.
 
Apple already said they have shipped out a lot less phones. You need people to work to sell consumer goods. With more and more countries going under quarantine it will lead to less supply.

No disagreement from me. However, that's why you would want to start looking at these companies. At some point in the future the virus will have passed & the economy will recover and these companies will return to normal and thus their profits / stock price will return to normal.
 
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Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...

hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars

the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...
 
I'm a seasoned prepper and have the skills and supplies to survive indefinitely in the aftermath of a global economic collapse. Personally, I'm glad to see the stock market crashing and I hope everyone loses their money and panics. :biglaugh: I have a robust arsenal of weapons and will defend my family and my property at all costs.
 
Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...

hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars

the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...

I heard this argument before, but one thing we seem to forget is that a high percentage of seniors need to be hospitalized with the virus. Probably need oxygen and other tech and meds. During the Spanish Flu they didnt have that. If this virus spread in the same conditions as in 1918, the numbers would be interesting.

I like your opinion on oil! Maybe I can do some camping with a camoer van this summer if theh stay low. Although in my area taxes are around 45% on gas which is insane
 
No disagreement from me. However, that's why you would want to start looking at these companies. At some point in the future the virus will have passed & the economy will recover and these companies will return to normal and thus their profits / stock price will return to normal.

You are right, its good to atleast look at the companies.
 
I'm starting to watch consumer staples, utility companies, telecoms ect. People will still be buying cell phones, electricity, razors, soap, ect. Usually in these situations the baby gets thrown out with the bath water and you can get the very best companies at a discount and collect a dividend.

good ideas here. What’s your take on Microsoft ?
 
I fundamentally believe that this whole thing is way overblown.

1) It didn't help that the emergency fed cut was way too soon and it was a completely stupid reaction - market expects at least a 100bps cut @ next meeting: CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC - CME Group

2) Media outlets are running to the bank with this - adding to the panic

3) Stay away from banks

Banks are being hit hard. When I checked TD bank a couple weeks ago it was 73 bucks , today it’s 57. You figure banks will be hit hard here? TD and Royal are on my watchlist if they fall to the right price - not sure what that is yet .
 
Banks are being hit hard. When I checked TD bank a couple weeks ago it was 73 bucks , today it’s 57. You figure banks will be hit hard here? TD and Royal are on my watchlist if they fall to the right price - not sure what that is yet .

If rates drop at the levels the market expects them to drop, I would stay away from them. There's better buying opportunities in other sectors (tech being the most obvious one)

To give you an example, look at how bad banks are doing in Europe under extremely low/negative rates.. really no growth since 2008.
 
Heading to Vegas in May with a bunch of buddies, going to grab $2k in USD and it's going to cost me (right now) - $2770. That's diiiiirrrrty
 
Heading to Vegas in May with a bunch of buddies, going to grab $2k in USD and it's going to cost me (right now) - $2770. That's diiiiirrrrty
I'll sell you $2K for $2,600 ... There's a savings of $170 right there.

I'm a helluva guy. :DD
 
I'll sell you $2K for $2,600 ... There's a savings of $170 right there.

I'm a helluva guy. :DD

I'm assuming he's selling 2770 canadian dollars for 2000 US dollars. With oil at ~30$ a barrel its probable that the value of the loonie vs the US dollar will continue to decline. In other words, its not a good deal for you. :D
 
I'm assuming he's selling 2770 canadian dollars for 2000 US dollars. With oil at ~30$ a barrel its probable that the value of the loonie vs the US dollar will continue to decline. In other words, its not a good deal for you. :D
Yeah, we're cocked over pretty good right now.
 
I wish I had more cash on hand to buy.

Meh its a panic right now... long term it will rebound hard... the test kits giving false negatives on mild cases made death rates look higher than they really are... just look at south korea, who accurately diagnosed people far better than china, the US, or italy... they have a high concentration but well under 1% death rate... this is just going to be a swine flu with the media driving a low information panic... as soon as people realize that it isnt the 1918 spanish flu or the much worse SARS and overreacting everything will go back to normal...

hell Ebola is 90 times scarier and that didn’t even blip on most radars

the good thing is when the rest of the market rebounds the oil should stay cheap... the production glut was going to do this eventually anyhow.. this just expedited it...

I fundamentally believe that this whole thing is way overblown.

1) It didn't help that the emergency fed cut was way too soon and it was a completely stupid reaction - market expects at least a 100bps cut @ next meeting: CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC - CME Group

2) Media outlets are running to the bank with this - adding to the panic

3) Stay away from banks
Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.

There are times to buy. Right now is not one of them.
 
Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.

There are times to buy. Right now is not one of them.

The camp that underestimates the power of panic in our 24/7 cycle is going to be in a world of hurt. I couldn't agree with you more on this one.
 
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Three fine examples, on top of countless others I've seen saying much the same things, which indicate we haven't hit bottom - because I guarantee none of you (and definitely no one I've talked to) is discussing the likelihood that concerns over COVID-19 extend into April, May, June, ... and economic activity slows because of it. Spoiler: it's going to - and it's probably going to go into the summer as well.

There are times to buy. Right now is not one of them.

If you look at how China is doing, there's every reason to be optimistic...it took them 2 months to contain it.

South Korea numbers are extremely promising.

There's fiscal and monetary policies being applied that is promising and will re-ignite the economy. The effects are not instantaneous.
 
Saudi increasing output today up to 13 million barrels. Russians are having meeting - if they increase output I would expect a pretty sharp drop in prices .

are electric cars soon to be a thing in the next 5-10 years ?
Looks like oil might be on its deathbed here. At least small scale producers in the USA and Canada . For a world that has run on oil for well over 100 years , wouldn’t the shock to the world economy be huge if it were to fall out ?

what are some blue chip stocks to keep an eye on?
 
Saudi increasing output today up to 13 million barrels. Russians are having meeting - if they increase output I would expect a pretty sharp drop in prices .

are electric cars soon to be a thing in the next 5-10 years ?
Looks like oil might be on its deathbed here. At least small scale producers in the USA and Canada . For a world that has run on oil for well over 100 years , wouldn’t the shock to the world economy be huge if it were to fall out ?

what are some blue chip stocks to keep an eye on?

Everybody is so focused on COVID19, however the oil crash is the biggest variable in driving the market down this week
 
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