Grate n Colorful Oz
Pure Laine Hutson
Which is more often than not a pass. He's a playmaker, first and foremost. Go watch his games.
The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step
- Thread starter Milhouse40
- Start date
Which is more often than not a pass. He's a playmaker, first and foremost. Go watch his games.
SOLR
Registered User
No, you go watch his game because you don't understand how he plays at all.
When you see a stat line of 40g-60a consistently in a player, that's never a pass first player.
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Chili
Ramble On!
- Jun 10, 2004
- 8,869
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Habs at/on Jan 1st through the years...
2025 17-17-3 37pts 113gf 127ga 6th Atlantic
2024 15-16-5 35pts 102-125 6th
2023 15-19-3 33pts 100-138 8th
2022 7-23-4 18pts 73-123 8th
2021 No games had been played yet in 2020/21
2020 18-16-6 42pts 131-131 5th
2019 21-14-5 47pts 128-128 5th
2018 16-19-4 36pts 100-122 6th
2017 22-9-6 50pts 113-86 1st
2016 22-15-3 47pts 116-99 1st
2015 24-11-2 50pts 127-100 2nd
2014 23-14-4 50pts 103-94 3rd
2013 No games had been played yet in 2012/13
2012 14-18-7 35pts 99-110 5th Northeast (last of 5 teams)
2011 21-16-2 44pts 97-92 2nd NE
2010 21-19-3 45pts 114-119 4th NE
Goal differential is the best since 2020 and trending better this season
Believe it shows the importance of cutting down the goals against. Last time they had a positive goal differential on Jan 1st was 2016/2017. Florida realized this and made two finals (interesting that on Jan 1st, 2023, the Habs were only 3 points behind them with a game in hand).
2025 17-17-3 37pts 113gf 127ga 6th Atlantic
2024 15-16-5 35pts 102-125 6th
2023 15-19-3 33pts 100-138 8th
2022 7-23-4 18pts 73-123 8th
2021 No games had been played yet in 2020/21
2020 18-16-6 42pts 131-131 5th
2019 21-14-5 47pts 128-128 5th
2018 16-19-4 36pts 100-122 6th
2017 22-9-6 50pts 113-86 1st
2016 22-15-3 47pts 116-99 1st
2015 24-11-2 50pts 127-100 2nd
2014 23-14-4 50pts 103-94 3rd
2013 No games had been played yet in 2012/13
2012 14-18-7 35pts 99-110 5th Northeast (last of 5 teams)
2011 21-16-2 44pts 97-92 2nd NE
2010 21-19-3 45pts 114-119 4th NE
Goal differential is the best since 2020 and trending better this season
Believe it shows the importance of cutting down the goals against. Last time they had a positive goal differential on Jan 1st was 2016/2017. Florida realized this and made two finals (interesting that on Jan 1st, 2023, the Habs were only 3 points behind them with a game in hand).
Habs record from January 1 to end of season (previous three seasons):
2023/24: 15-20-11 / 133 GF-159 GA (41 pts = 6th worst record league-wide, 7th worst by pt.%)
2022/23: 16-26-3 / 131 GF-167 GA (35 pts = 5th worst)
2021/22: 13-24-7 / 124 GF-177 GA (33 pts = tied for 3rd worst)
The overall trend has been gradual improvement from season to season. Last year's record at this point was very close to where we are now. Let's see how this roster responds and if they can stay healthy/focused enough to avoid last season's letdown.
2023/24: 15-20-11 / 133 GF-159 GA (41 pts = 6th worst record league-wide, 7th worst by pt.%)
2022/23: 16-26-3 / 131 GF-167 GA (35 pts = 5th worst)
2021/22: 13-24-7 / 124 GF-177 GA (33 pts = tied for 3rd worst)
The overall trend has been gradual improvement from season to season. Last year's record at this point was very close to where we are now. Let's see how this roster responds and if they can stay healthy/focused enough to avoid last season's letdown.
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BeliveauFan4ever
Registered User
- Apr 10, 2006
- 2,376
- 2,325
Grate n Colorful Oz
Pure Laine Hutson
I try to find solace in the fact they draft well above top 15 so far, as they have found Hutson, Beck, Hage and Fowler with later picks, so we might not become mirred in no man's land despite picking lower in the upcoming years. As long as the team keeps adding ammo year after year and not miss on their drafts, they'll have ammo to trade and upgrade.
In fact, despite all the flack Timmins got, once he got the reigns of drafting around 17-18, we've probably seen the longest sequence of draft success from that point, thatvwe've seen in a long time. It's crazy the number of NHLers we've drafted since 2018, notwithstanding the bad KK pick.
2024
Demidov
Hage
Koivu
2023
Reinbacher
Fowler
Xhekaj
2022
Slafkovsky
Beck
Hutson
Engstrom
2021
Mailloux
Kapanen
Roy
2020
Guhle
Tuch
Dobes
2019
Caufield
Struble
Harvey-Pinard
2018
Kotkaniemi
Ylonen
Romanov -->Dach
Harris --> Laine
In a few years, we'll look back on the draft period (2018-2024) and have at least 16 of those 23 players become NHLers. That's massive, especially considering I've left out a few dark horses who could also make it.
When you can draft 23 NHLers in the span of 10 years, you should be in a good shape, and we're almost there.
DAChampion
Registered User
- May 28, 2011
- 30,361
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Given that the Habs are adding Demidov and Reinbacher next year, and possibly more, I think they have a good shot at a deep playoff run in 2026.
If I'm Hughes, I try and make one more high-quality add, another swing like Dach, Newhook, and Laine.
If I'm Hughes, I try and make one more high-quality add, another swing like Dach, Newhook, and Laine.
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
EP40 baby, let's go.
JeffreyLFC
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 10,910
- 8,090
That's a true all-in move!
But seriously, Mathew Barzal is also struggling at this moment with NYI or again circle back to Zegras.
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
That's a true all-in move!
But seriously, Mathew Barzal is also struggling at this moment with NYI or again circle back to Zegras.
Zegras sucks, we don't need to do the Drouin thing again.
Barzal would be interesting, I'd love to add him and if the Islanders decide to rebuild, we have two firsts and a lot of prospects. More viable than EP40, for sure.
Sorinth
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2013
- 11,890
- 6,670
Worth noting that the Jan onwards is usually a struggle for bad teams because of motivation. Being out of the playoffs is mentally draining, so this year we might see a significant uptick simply because by being in the mix we players will push themselves more.
Also confidence is very different this year, we often got off to good starts and then slowly started dropping. This year we are riding high after overcoming a slow start so the feeling is going to be different.
That's a true all-in move!
But seriously, Mathew Barzal is also struggling at this moment with NYI or again circle back to Zegras.
DAChampion
Registered User
- May 28, 2011
- 30,361
- 21,943
Between Laine, Suzuki, Hutson, Caulfield, and Demidov there could be a season in a few years where the Habs sweep each of the Rocket, Norris, Art Ross, and Hart Trophies.
Hart: Suzuki
Norris: Hutson
Art Ross: Demidov
Rocket: Laine or Caulfield
And the Stanley Cup.
Hart: Suzuki
Norris: Hutson
Art Ross: Demidov
Rocket: Laine or Caulfield
And the Stanley Cup.
salbutera
Registered User
- Sep 10, 2019
- 15,709
- 17,819
Since November 11th (when we snapped the 6 game losing streak), Habs are
- 9th in points
- 8th in wins
That's a 24 games stretch... Roughly 1/3 of a season playing at top tier level.
Even with our rough patch in Oct (remember the sky is falling "MSL can't coach / KH is botching the rebuild" hot takes flowing from the usual suspects in October & November lol), at 39 games, we're 1 point out of a WC spot...
Lots of hockey left, but the crazy thing is that this young roster could well have a better 2nd half of the season than the first half.
Future is bright
- 9th in points
- 8th in wins
That's a 24 games stretch... Roughly 1/3 of a season playing at top tier level.
Even with our rough patch in Oct (remember the sky is falling "MSL can't coach / KH is botching the rebuild" hot takes flowing from the usual suspects in October & November lol), at 39 games, we're 1 point out of a WC spot...
Lots of hockey left, but the crazy thing is that this young roster could well have a better 2nd half of the season than the first half.
Future is bright
That's nuts!Since November 11th (when we snapped the 6 game losing streak), Habs are
- 9th in points
- 8th in wins
That's a 24 games stretch... Roughly 1/3 of a season playing at top tier level.
Even with our rough patch in Oct (remember the sky is falling "MSL can't coach / KH is botching the rebuild" hot takes flowing from the usual suspects in October & November lol), at 39 games, we're 1 point out of a WC spot...
Lots of hockey left, but the crazy thing is that this young roster could well have a better 2nd half of the season than the first half.
Future is bright
One stat to keep an eye on: Since Nov. 11, Habs have the second-highest 5v5 Shooting% at 10.6, which is unsustainably high. We've been one of the lowest-event offensive teams during that period (5th lowest shots, 4th lowest shot-attempts for) yet we've scored the 8th most goals (3.17 GF/GP). We've had puck-luck (thank you, Laine and Evans). That won't last.
Moving forward, we need to generate more shots & chances. Dach coming back to life will be huge. Same with Slaf.
How has our defence been at preventing shots & chances during that same period? Pretty good, it turns out. Total GA/GP, SA/GP, and SAT-against are good to very good, even with some wonky goaltending outings. Considering we were dead last in GA and possession % before Nov.11, this is the area where we've made the most progress.
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Honestly can't believe this turnaround. Laine and Carrier have made a massive impact and even guys like Anderson and Dvorak have really stepped up.
Mmmm they have been unlucky defensively to. Since Nov.11 they are a 50/50 team 5v5 (expected GD 0, actual +1).
Being a 50/50 5v5 team with good special teams and goaltending is a road that can lead to the playoffs. I don’t think they have the roster to do more then that. The teams above 52-53% have much better rosters (FLA, VGK, COL, CAR, etc)
Yup & yup & yup.
I don't think we're a top 10 team right now over an 82 game season. It's clear that a lot has to be going out way to have stretches like the one we're on, and unlike a "bonafide" top tier team, a few things going poorly can shoot us down to bottom tier level quickly...
But that's all to be expected with a roster as young as ours not even 3 full seasons into a major rebuild. To be able to put together sustained runs of this nature is impressive and a positive sign of things to come.
With the cap flexibility we have to add talent, and the high end prospect talent in the pipeline, it's quite evident to me that we're poised to push into that top tier level of teams in the near future.
Sorinth
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2013
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So a quick look has the 16th placed team with a 5v5 shooting of 8.66, last year it was 8.77, and the year before 8.68.
But more importantly it looks like there are some teams that can consistently get around 9.5%, and plenty of teams can stay above 10% for a whole season. So yes over the long term that shooting % is going to drop, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will regress to norm this season.
