The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[morhilane]

Considering how many lopsided losses the Habs have incurred so far this season I was surprised to see that they are only -15 in the goal differential.

Habs had the worst goal differential in the league on December 16th at -31.

 

[SOLR]

We're gonna end up with a top 15 pick and whatever Calgary is gonna land. We're doomed..gonna get out of this rebuild with:

Inconsistent Slafkovsky (Cooley is heating up)
David Reinbacher (Still like the pick but Michkov has been great so far)
Ivan Demidov = the highest potential pick we had in a while
Lane Hutson (Wizard but gonna be tough in the playoffs)
Jacob Fowler (seems like our future #1 goalie)

vs

San Jose Sharks

Macklin Celebrini
Will Smith
Sam Dickinson
Potentially: Matthew Schaefer

+ Eklund, Musty and they got Askarov

Slaf is not inconsistent at all. He just needs a better line. Demidov is probably the secret.

If CGY pick stay between 11-16 and MTL pick between top 5-15.

I would be very fine with that.

Picking 2 times in top 16 that can be a game changer for the rebuild if they hit well (Yess, top 4 would be already a game changer, but MTL play very good at this moment).

Caufield and Guhle are both #15 and #16 draft pick.

And Suz (13th) and Newhook (16th)

 

[Sorinth]

We're gonna end up with a top 15 pick and whatever Calgary is gonna land. We're doomed..gonna get out of this rebuild with:

Inconsistent Slafkovsky (Cooley is heating up)
David Reinbacher (Still like the pick but Michkov has been great so far)
Ivan Demidov = the highest potential pick we had in a while
Lane Hutson (Wizard but gonna be tough in the playoffs)
Jacob Fowler (seems like our future #1 goalie)

vs

San Jose Sharks

Macklin Celebrini
Will Smith
Sam Dickinson
Potentially: Matthew Schaefer

+ Eklund, Musty and they got Askarov

Seems very much like a case of the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Like let's be real had we drafted Will Smith and he put up 13 points in 31 games people would be freaking out about him being a bust, especially with Michkov there.

Also not sure how it makes any sense when talking about what we have as we exit our rebuild to ignore Suzuki, Caufield, and Guhle.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Just to add to that, when I say rangy, I mean a specific kind of center that has a different dynamic than suzuki, because some matchups will require that ability to create your own real estate with size and reach. So I'm not looking to lock up cap resources on pettersson for example despite him having better numbers than nick in general. I want a guy who can excel in a certain style of game that may be more difficult for a guy like nick or Elias.

I don’t think we’ll be able to acquire a center as good or better than Suzuki going forward. We might have some internal solutions though. Hage is some years away but he’s got potential.

The guy I’d love to put there is Demidov. He looks like he could be the best player on the team. If we could put him at center and Nick become our number two? That’s the path towards contention. If not, Dach might be able to assume the number two role and hold it for Hage…

 

[ReHabs]

Seems very much like a case of the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Like let's be real had we drafted Will Smith and he put up 13 points in 31 games people would be freaking out about him being a bust, especially with Michkov there.

And how many patience preachers would be out in full force, insisting that everything is right and fine? You underestimate the tendency of this fanbase to convince itself.

If we had drafted Will Smith everyone would’ve been informed that Hughes and MSL know best and it’s too early to criticise and patience is the order of the day and etc

Also not sure how it makes any sense when talking about what we have as we exit our rebuild to ignore Suzuki, Caufield, and Guhle.

Seems strange to cite these players on one side when I see in other discussions that the rebuild has only just started because only two of Hughes’ draftees have made the roster.

I can see it making sense either way but it doesn’t work both ways at the same time.

Slaf is not inconsistent at all. He just needs a better line. Demidov is probably the secret.

Slaf needs to be a protagonist. Laine shows how much of the ice opens when he’s out there. Even if he’s slow and brittle, Laine’s quality and ability ensures the defence is on their toes. Slaf has to get there. It’s not a linemate issue imo.

 

[Sorinth]

And how many patience preachers would be out in full force, insisting that everything is right and fine? You underestimate the tendency of this fanbase to convince itself.

If we had drafted Will Smith everyone would’ve been informed that Hughes and MSL know best and it’s too early to criticise and patience is the order of the day and etc

And they'd be right to say be patient. 30 games into both Smith's and Michkov's careers is simply too early to make any statements about who will be better. The point I'm making is that Hab's fans seem to have tons of patience when it comes to other team's players/prospects and very little with our own. And we can see that given the post I quoted was calling Slaf inconsistent but Cooley is heating up, they very clearly aren't the patient type and if the shoe was on the other foot would no doubt not view Smith or Fantilli or Carlsson for that matter since all of them are not really doing much so far.

Seems strange to cite these players on one side when I see in other discussions that the rebuild has only just started because only two of Hughes’ draftees have made the roster.

I can see it making sense either way but it doesn’t work both ways at the same time.

It's not strange at all, it's talking about two different things. One is about # of assets and the other is about time.

 

[DAChampion]

And they'd be right to say be patient. 30 games into both Smith's and Michkov's careers is simply too early to make any statements about who will be better. The point I'm making is that Hab's fans seem to have tons of patience when it comes to other team's players/prospects and very little with our own. And we can see that given the post I quoted was calling Slaf inconsistent but Cooley is heating up, they very clearly aren't the patient type and if the shoe was on the other foot would no doubt not view Smith or Fantilli or Carlsson for that matter since all of them are not really doing much so far.

It's not strange at all, it's talking about two different things. One is about # of assets and the other is about time.

I think the honest answer is that the vast majority of posters have absolutely no idea what is going on with Smith, Fantilli, etc. Checking HockeyDB once a month is not valuable, one would need to actually be watching several games in detail to gauge how those players are developing, their deployment, whether or not they've been healthy, etc cetera.

So that said, I'm going to check Will Smith on HockeyDB and comment:

- wasn't his performance in the H-East outstanding?
- 13 points in his first 31 games, presumably playing behind Celebrini ... What's the problem? Honestly I think I'd be happy and enthusiastic.

 

[SOLR]

Slaf needs to be a protagonist. Laine shows how much of the ice opens when he’s out there. Even if he’s slow and brittle, Laine’s quality and ability ensures the defence is on their toes. Slaf has to get there. It’s not a linemate issue imo.

lol If you are waiting for that, you'll wait all your life.

Slaf is a top line connector.

It's completely a linemate issue.
He's the multiplicator in the equation. He's not the variables.
Replace blackhole Caufield with Demidov, see what happens.

 

[BLONG7]

lol If you are waiting for that, you'll wait all your life.

Slaf is a top line connector.

It's completely a linemate issue.
He's the multiplicator in the equation. He's not the variables.
Replace blackhole Caufield with Demidov, see what happens.

Caufield is a PPG player this year.............blackhole seems way off? Similar to last year, CC has been a good 200ft player.

 

[Sorinth]

I think the honest answer is that the vast majority of posters have absolutely no idea what is going on with Smith, Fantilli, etc. Checking HockeyDB once a month is not valuable, one would need to actually be watching several games in detail to gauge how those players are developing, their deployment, whether or not they've been healthy, etc cetera.

So that said, I'm going to check Will Smith on HockeyDB and comment:

- wasn't his performance in the H-East outstanding?
- 13 points in his first 31 games, presumably playing behind Celebrini ... What's the problem? Honestly I think I'd be happy and enthusiastic.

Nothings actually wrong with Smith, but if someones going to argue that Slaf is inconsistent and we should be concerned because Cooley is producing and then also say SJ's rebuild is doing great because they have guys like Smith then it's very hypocritical. It's a case of the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, with our guys results have to happen right away or we should be very concerned, but with other teams the only thing that matters is the potential and not what they've done so far.

 

[Andy]

lol If you are waiting for that, you'll wait all your life.

Slaf is a top line connector.

It's completely a linemate issue.
He's the multiplicator in the equation. He's not the variables.
Replace blackhole Caufield with Demidov, see what happens.

Caufield has been the best forward this year. Complete 200ft player who is no longer just a sniper. Dude is making plays, breaking up plays, playing outstanding without the puck, he's fantastic at transitioning and skating the puck.

The habs have done fantastic work with Cole. He's low key under appreciated this season because everyone just expects him to be a pure 50g, uni-dimensional sniper, when in fact, he's been a two-way near, PPG winger.

 

[Andy]

Nothings actually wrong with Smith, but if someones going to argue that Slaf is inconsistent and we should be concerned because Cooley is producing and then also say SJ's rebuild is doing great because they have guys like Smith then it's very hypocritical. It's a case of the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, with our guys results have to happen right away or we should be very concerned, but with other teams the only thing that matters is the potential and not what they've done so far.

No one talks about Leo Carlsson either.

But you point out something very accurate in that folks only talk about and envy the Habs peers elsewhere when they are productive, but go completely silent or flat out ignore when those players have similar struggles.

The fact is, we will not know who the best player will be any time soon. It will take years to determine this. I keep referencing the 2003 draft because depending on when you assessed that draft (D+3, D+5, D+7, D+7), the "best player" would be a different player for each of those timelines. Staal was the early winner, then it was Richards/Carter, moved on to Perry/Getzlaf, to folks eventually acknlowging that Bergeron and Pavelski were probably the top forwards from that era.

 

[DAChampion]

No one talks about Leo Carlsson either.

But you point out something very accurate in that folks only talk about and envy the Habs peers elsewhere when they are productive, but go completely silent or flat out ignore when those players have similar struggles.

The fact is, we will not know who the best player will be any time soon. It will take years to determine this. I keep referencing the 2003 draft because depending on when you assessed that draft (D+3, D+5, D+7, D+7), the "best player" of the draft would be a different player for each of those timelines. Staal was the early winner, then it was Richards/Carter, moved on to Perry/Getzlaf, to folks eventually acknlowging that Bergeron and Pavelski were probably the top forwards from that era.

Would some really pick Pavelski over Getzlaf?

 

[Andy]

Would some really pick Pavelski over Getzlaf?

With hindsight, and considering longevity, and career consistency, Pavelski is right up their with Getz. Doesn't have the same high as Ryan, but Pavelski was a consistent, point producing two way centre for almost 17 seasons.

 

[Archijerej]

I won't argue that having Suzuki as your best player is fine as a cup contender since you'd need someone better, but banking on luck to get the #1C in the perfect year instead of improving the rest of the team isn't a sound strategy. I will also acknowledge that the 2C would have to be better than most other 2Cs in the league, in a similar mould to Hintz/Johnston like the Stars have.

The last part is precisely why we traded for Dach and why he's such an important piece of the puzzle.

 

[Sorinth]

And I do think Suzuki can be a #1 center on a contender if we're stacked all around and have great depth. Still missing a top 6 C and a top 2 D to achieve that imo. Maybe we have the C in the system already, the D I don't see it for now.

It's all about how steep the drop off is between your best player(s) and the rest of the team. When you have McDavid and Draisaitl you can have a steep drop off to your #3 guy. If Suzuki is your best the player then you can't afford a big drop off, you probably need your 5th or 6th best players to be very close to Suzuki's level.

I think we have a decent chance of doing that, Caufield is arguably already there as a guy where there's little to no drop off. Demidov and Hutson can frankly surpass Suzuki as our best player but even if they don't will almost certainly be in that level of little to drop off. Slaf has the potential but is more of a project, and Laine is still a big question mark both in terms of can he play a full season at his potential and will he be around long term.

So we do have the building blocks to build that type of team.

 

[dcyhabs]

Seems very much like a case of the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Like let's be real had we drafted Will Smith and he put up 13 points in 31 games people would be freaking out about him being a bust, especially with Michkov there.

Also not sure how it makes any sense when talking about what we have as we exit our rebuild to ignore Suzuki, Caufield, and Guhle.

Different players. PLD is getting kudos this year despite not putting up points for opening space for other guys this year. Some players, especially big guys, can be useful without putting up points.

If Smith isn't scoring he's hurting the team.

 

[SOLR]

Caufield is a PPG player this year.............blackhole seems way off? Similar to last year, CC has been a good 200ft player.

Blackhole doesn't mean Caufield isn't producing, it just means he's the end of the play.

Caufield has been the best forward this year. Complete 200ft player who is no longer just a sniper. Dude is making plays, breaking up plays, playing outstanding without the puck, he's fantastic at transitioning and skating the puck.

The habs have done fantastic work with Cole. He's low key under appreciated this season because everyone just expects him to be a pure 50g, uni-dimensional sniper, when in fact, he's been a two-way near, PPG winger.

Still mostly a blackhole.

 

[SOLR]

Blackhole doesn't mean Caufield isn't producing, it just means he's the end of the play.



Still mostly a blackhole.

I think Demidov would be a much better linemate to Slaf than Caufield because he will create more than receive, which will play to Slaf's strengths. Demidov also has the physicality to join Slafkovski in the dirty areas; Caufield literally cannot do that.

The moment the Habs can have a 40-goal-scoring 2nd liner in Caufield is when we become competitive.

The last 3 games prove it. The 2nd line is waking up = 3 wins in a row.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

I think Demidov would be a much better linemate to Slaf than Caufield because he will create more than receive, which will play to Slaf's strengths. Demidov also has the physicality to join Slafkovski in the dirty areas; Caufield literally cannot do that.

The moment the Habs can have a 40-goal-scoring 2nd liner in Caufield is when we become competitive.

I'm sorry but Caufield has definitely shown he can create plays.

 

[SOLR]

I'm sorry but Caufield has definitely shown he can create plays.

At a very low rate.

Why would you even say, "But he can make great passes?" it's not what I'm talking about. What I am talking about is obvious.

Demidov will set up Slaf 4-5x times per game in prime scoring chances. Caufield, over a large number of games sample, it's much less than that. Caufield is not a prime playmaker, he can score, and he's good at everything. But he wants to shoot and score mostly, and he doesn't drive the net. This is a black hole for Slafkovski because the puck rarely comes to him in a shooting position if it doesn't come from Suzuki, and there's seldom a dirty goal because Caufield/Suzuki doesn't really drive the net.

Caufield is as good as a perimeter player can get, but he doesn't have the mix of decision-making patterns to contribute to Slaf. "Why doesn't Slafkovski score more?" He contributes to the pair of Suzuki/Caufield, but he doesn't get much contribution from them.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

At a very low rate.

Why would you even say, "But he can make great passes?" it's not what I'm talking about. What I am talking about is obvious.

Demidov will set up Slaf 4-5x times per game in prime scoring chances. Caufield, over a large number of games sample, it's much less than that. Caufield is not a prime playmaker, he can score, and he's good at everything. But he wants to shoot and score mostly, and he doesn't drive the net. This is a black hole for Slafkovski because the puck rarely comes to him in a shooting position if it doesn't come from Suzuki, and there's seldom a dirty goal because Caufield/Suzuki doesn't really drive the net.

Caufield is as good as a perimeter player, but he doesn't have the mix of decision-making patterns to contribute to Slaf. "Why doesn't Slafkovski score more?" He contributes to the pair of Suzuki/Caufield, but he doesn't get much contribution from them.

He had 37 assists last season and a low percentage of those were secondary assists. I don't have time to look at highlights but he's proven that he's a well rounded player. He's even been winning some battles (see game vs TB with Hedman) that you're saying he cannot do. Let's wait to see how Demidov does before splitting our best duo

 

[SOLR]

He had 37 assists last season and a low percentage of those were secondary assists. I don't have time to look at highlights but he's proven that he's a well rounded player. He's even been winning some battles (see game vs TB with Hedman) that you're saying he cannot do. Let's wait to see how Demidov does before splitting our best duo

Mostly to Suzuki. I don't disagree, that we might try to keep that duo together. But what I am saying is that Demidov and Slaf seem like another promising duo.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Mostly to Suzuki. I don't disagree, that we might try to keep that duo together. But what I am saying is that Demidov and Slaf seem like another promising duo.

Not really. They're both pass-first guys, even though Demidov has a better scoring touch and shoots more than Slaf (which isn't all that hard). They are both playmakers.

Demidov-Laine or Demidov-Hage is more what I'll be looking forward to.

 

[SOLR]

Not really. They're both pass-first guys, even though Demidov has a better scoring touch and shoots more than Slaf (which isn't all that hard). They are both playmakers.

Demidov-Laine or Demidov-Hage is more what I'll be looking forward to.

Demidov is not pass first at all. He's a playmaker he'll make whatever play is relevant to the situation. At an elite level. Reasoning here: we are not getting the garbage goals from Slaf that would be generated from someone like Demidov deeking one D, taking a low shot.