The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Boss Man Hughes]

It's hard to install a system with so many useless forwards - Anderson, Armia, Dvorak

 

[Tabarouette]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1847835604333080804

rebuilding backward

 

[MarkovsKnee]

For some reason these guys seem the most lost. Last night when we were hemmed in there wasn't much pressure from the forwards to clear the zone. Barzal skated 5 kms with the puck on his stick and for someone unused to watching us play the assumption would be that we were shorthanded.

We kind of were because Kapanen had no stick, and the team just went to 4 man box because they were tired. Barzal skating around in circles while making no attempt to get inside was pretty funny to watch actually.

We are terrible in neutral zone, bad protecting our own net & terrible along the boards anywhere on the ice. A modified left-wing lock system would help stabilize the defense giving them time & space to get to the puck first.

We also have to start using the interference system other teams use to slow teams up in neutral zone & offensive zone. There's zero attempt to change opposition's entry route. They go where they want to go.

The young D have zero protection & they're getting exposed.

 

[austin316]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1847835604333080804

rebuilding backward

Oooof

 

[Habby4Life]

We kind of were because Kapanen had no stick, and the team just went to 4 man box because they were tired. Barzal skating around in circles while making no attempt to get inside was pretty funny to watch actually.

We are terrible in neutral zone, bad protecting our own net & terrible along the boards anywhere on the ice. A modified left-wing lock system would help stabilize the defense giving them time & space to get to the puck first.

We also have to start using the interference system other teams use to slow teams up in neutral zone & offensive zone. There's zero attempt to change opposition's entry route. They go where they want to go.

The young D have zero protection & they're getting exposed.

Everyone can see this except MSL fanboys.

At some point they need to learn to play without the puck.

 

[OldCraig71]

We kind of were because Kapanen had no stick, and the team just went to 4 man box because they were tired. Barzal skating around in circles while making no attempt to get inside was pretty funny to watch actually.

We are terrible in neutral zone, bad protecting our own net & terrible along the boards anywhere on the ice. A modified left-wing lock system would help stabilize the defense giving them time & space to get to the puck first.

We also have to start using the interference system other teams use to slow teams up in neutral zone & offensive zone. There's zero attempt to change opposition's entry route. They go where they want to go.

The young D have zero protection & they're getting exposed.

Yes, I agree. It isn't just about them being inexperienced.

Barzal doesn't like to shoot lol, very skilled but always looking to pass. It was sad and funny at the same time watching them stuck in our end but broken stick aside, this is the fourth or fifth time it has happened already.

Several commentators have mentioned how easy it is for teams to get out of their zone and into ours, and without Sam back there standing on his head, we might be 0-5-1 right now.

I agree that the left wing lock would certainly help because we are allowing teams to walk right through the middle of the ice right now. Our forwards aren't physical, Pezetta is the only real hitter out of the group and he isn't even playing lol.

 

[Tyson]

Everyone can see this except MSL fanboys.

At some point they need to learn to play without the puck.

So frustrating to see how easy this team is to play against. LA Kings plays 3 in 4 comes into town to play a young, rested team and they looked like the rested team.

 

[domiwroze]

Dach -8
Savard -7
Newhook -7
Armia -5
Xhakej -4

We all know that +/- stats are to be taken with a grain of salt, but these 5 have been atrocious

Our first line isn't great for their 5on5 either but at least they somewhat produce offensively so it's not as bad as those 5.

 

[Weltschmerz]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1847835604333080804

rebuilding backward

So Caufield is 268th in expected goals but 2nd in actual goals scored?

 

[Tabarouette]

So Caufield is 268th in expected goals but 2nd in actual goals scored?

he's shooting 30%, and 2 out of 6 of his goals were on the PP so, yeah

even the eye test should be pretty clear on that one tbh, they're collecting point but they're getting absolutely clowned on for the overwhelming majority of their shifts

 

[Team_Spirit]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1847835604333080804

rebuilding backward

Ma parole! On the good news front it can only get better.

Go Habs Go~

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

It's hard to install a system with so many useless forwards - Anderson, Armia, Dvorak

Would have been nice of Hughes to trade them when their value was high instead of holding out for a king's ransom

 

[morhilane]

Ma parole! On the good news front it can only get better.

Go Habs Go~

The number isn't 0%, so it can technically still get worst...

 

[Sorinth]

Would have been nice of Hughes to trade them when their value was high instead of holding out for a king's ransom

When exactly did Armia and Dvorak have value?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So Caufield is 268th in expected goals but 2nd in actual goals scored?

It's expected goals for %, this means it also includes xGA, as much as it includes xGF. They are both line stats, so no matter if he scored 4 goals at ES, if his line doesn't score, other than him, his xGF will probably be low.

 

[Dirby Kach]

Sam Bennett would be a great fit to our core... I bet we are in the running if he becomes a UFA, but ultimately, if he's healthy this year and puts up .8-1ppg, I think some team will go nuts and offer him 10M+ given the cap increase. Doubt Hughes goes there...

But If he stays in the <8M range, I bet we'll be in the running.

Cuylle from NY & Roy from Vegas are 2 other targets I could see us make apush for to add a bit of skilled grit to our top 9

I wouldn't even give Sam Bennett 7M.
I'd be cautious giving him a long deal.
I feel like he will get injured or just be ineffective like Gallagher, Backes, etc. Guys that play hard all the time.

 

[Weltschmerz]

It's expected goals for %, this means it also includes xGA, as much as it includes xGF. They are both line stats, so no matter if he scored 4 goals at ES, if his line doesn't score, other than him, his xGF will probably be low.

Thx for this, but how is the Dach line ahead of them? They have only one goal from Newhook and looking at their +/- they also allowed more goals against.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Thx for this, but how is the Dach line ahead of them? They have only one goal from Newhook and looking at their +/- they also allowed more goals against.

The Dach line actually has the lowest expected GF% at 33.3%. Where do you get your info? Look at what moneypuck says:

 

[Weltschmerz]

The Dach line actually has the lowest expected GF% at 33.3%. Where do you get your info? Look at what moneypuck says:

I’m referring to the original post with the quote from twitter from Mr data puck.

 

[The Real Timo]

I know what the next step should be but unfortunately it will take another 2-3 season before it happens. By then we will be in year 6 of rebuild. For the past 30 years I have countless examples of "I told you so" yet nobody listens

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I’m referring to the original post with the quote from twitter from Mr data puck.

Because you're counting them as a line based on their individual xGF%. That tweet has individual xGF%, not the specific lines, which (individual) includes TOI where they did not play together at ES. The 13-14-20 line played 65 minutes together in 6 games, which means they've had significant time apart from each other. If you look at the differential between together versus their individual stats, it shows they were better together and the time played with other forwards lowered their individual xGF%.

 

[Chili]

Dach -8
Savard -7
Newhook -7
Armia -5
Xhakej -4

We all know that +/- stats are to be taken with a grain of salt, but these 5 have been atrocious

Our first line isn't great for their 5on5 either but at least they somewhat produce offensively so it's not as bad as those 5.

There may be something to those numbers or not.

Plus/minus has numerous flaws, the two biggest for me are:

-It gives credit or holds a player responsible for everyone else on the ice. No player can cover everyone

-it's only looking at goals, there are numerous other significant plays in a game good and bad that it ignores

Roger Neilson had his own system, where he would review the tape of a game and award +/- directly and not just for goals. That's subjective but still a lot more accurate then the numbers we see. I would hope that the Habs do something similar in tracking the players' performances.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

It would be nice if Marty could check his ego and allow the team to hire an experienced assistant coach to be on the bench with him

 

[Andrei79]

Sam Bennett would be a great fit to our core... I bet we are in the running if he becomes a UFA, but ultimately, if he's healthy this year and puts up .8-1ppg, I think some team will go nuts and offer him 10M+ given the cap increase. Doubt Hughes goes there...

But If he stays in the <8M range, I bet we'll be in the running.

Cuylle from NY & Roy from Vegas are 2 other targets I could see us make apush for to add a bit of skilled grit to our top 9

All very good ideas imo.

 

[HuGort]

I wouldn't even give Sam Bennett 7M.
I'd be cautious giving him a long deal.
I feel like he will get injured or just be ineffective like Gallagher, Backes, etc. Guys that play hard all the time.

Best, if you want add top star, is offer sheet rather than UFA. Get them through their prime years and can trade them at 7 years. You not losing nothing. instead of second half of contract being terrible. That's If a UFA will sign here? Seen all the bad contracts Bergevin handed out to get players sign here.