The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Yes Danault was the main shutdown line, but not only is that not the definition of a teams #1 line, there's no exclusivity in terms of matchups and opposing teams the top lines will end up playing against all the lines. You can tilt it somewhat but having Danault doesn't mean Suzuki didn't also face the other teams best players or was in an exploitation role.

For example, in the finals at 5 on 5 Kucherov played against Suzuki for 27:31, against Danault for 22:49, and against neither 17:24.

Because of line changes/home team. But that doesn't make Suzuki the #1C.

I'm curious why you didn't bring up the other series, nor strenght (EV, PP, PK).

The fact the ice-time is split close to evenly and Suzuki had a little more while Tampa had 3 home games versus 2 away games shows exactly what I was saying. At home, Suzuki was used as exploitation. When away, Tampa would send their best versus Suzuki to avoid Danault, hence why Suzuki has a bit more time versus Kucherov, because Tampa had 3 home games.

The fact the opposition would send their best offensive weapons versus suzuki at home tells you who the other team thought was shutting them down, and that is not Suzuki.

 

[Andrei79]

As much as I like Suzuki, that is a complete spin. Danault centered the main shutdown line, which is why he had so few points, while Suzuki was more often used to exploit a weaker pairing.

This is just like the people thinking Draisaitl was better than McDavid in so and so series, or Malkin versus Crosby. Both Drai and Malkin were used as exploits in those moments, while McDavid or Crosby faced the toughest opposition.

Want to highlight this post because it is bang on.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You should just disregard anyone saying otherwise. I've not followed the whole conversation cause the breadcrumb was over 10 posts long but in those few posts i've check you come across as someone pretending he can't make the improvement. Maybe i misjudge you?

While i'm not pretending he'll make the improvement i think it's far form being impossible. He needs to improve his defensive game and his faceoffs but he made lot of progress in the last 2 years in those aspects of the game and while he's at the age most players don't improve offensively he is young enough to improve defensively and at the faceoffs dot while retaining his offense.

Suzuki’s an interesting case. Smart player with good two way play and a great shot. He’s always left me wanting more though.

Going into last year I was saying it was time for him to prove that he was a number one. I took serious heat from people but I maintained what I was saying. By the mid point of last year it was another 60 point pace season.

In the second half though, he really took off. Some of it can be chalked up to puck luck but he really stepped up his play. One of the best centers in the league.

He’s currently ranked somewhere around 16th in the league. I’d say that’s about right. He might not be as good as he was late last year but he seems to have leveled up. At this point I’m confident that he can be at least an average number one. I just wish he’d shoot a lot more. He could get 40 goals a year if he did. Just a great shot.

 

[Garbageyuk]

he is more than adequate as the "#1C" on a cup contending roster.

Blatantly false. Every Cup winner in the modern era had a better 1C than Suzuki.

but there are several recent winners/finalists of which Suzuki's performance impact would be on par with the #1C that they had (blues, knights, capitals, stars, sharks etc.).

O’Reilly, Eichel, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Thornton, were all better than Suzuki. The only team out of the ones you mentioned that didn’t have a better C than Suzuki was Dallas. Why do you think they lost?

If Dach takes the step forward in his game that seems quite likely

if Hage develops well.

If, if.

same with top 6 scoring wingers... I'm confident enough in Slaf, CC, Demidov, Newhook (plus Laine?) providing us with enough there as well.

Two of those guys have never played a game for the Habs (and Laine is injury prone and was ran out of Columbus), and one had a career high of 36 points at age 23. Tons of question marks.

Will 1-2 of Guhle/Hutson/RB/Mailloux (or outliers like Xhekaj/Engstrom/ Konyuskov/Barron/Strubble) establish themselves as legit top pairing minute-eating dmen?

It could happen, but it’s more likely that none of them do.

 

[Sorinth]

Because of line changes/home team. But that doesn't make Suzuki the #1C.

I'm curious why you didn't bring up the other series, nor strenght (EV, PP, PK).

The fact the ice-time is split close to evenly and Suzuki had a little more while Tampa had 3 home games versus 2 away games shows exactly what I was saying. At home, Suzuki was used as exploitation. When away, Tampa would send their best versus Suzuki to avoid Danault, hence why Suzuki has a bit more time versus Kucherov, because Tampa had 3 home games.

The fact the opposition would send their best offensive weapons versus suzuki at home tells you who the other team thought was shutting them down, and that is not Suzuki.

Contenders tend to have more then 1 good line, so even if you aren't facing the Kucherov and Point line you're facing the Stamkos line instead. Facing one line vs the other is irrelevant because either way you're facing elite players who were at the top of their games and for those true contenders the difference between the line 1 and line 2 is basically non-existent. You don't have easy matchups facing Malkin instead of Crosby you have a tough matchup regardless.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He was already 3 wins away from winning the cup as the teams #1 C. All it would've taken was a 2nd line center who could manage more then 4 points in 22 playoff games or for a guy like Tatar to not become a no-show with 1 point in 5 games.

He doesn't have to improve significantly, especially when he can arguably meet your metrics simply by having a better team around him and without actually improving.

Tampa had like 6 players better than our best scorer. Suzuki did an admirable job but he was hardly a number one center. And he had Dannault doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

Carey Price is the reason we went as far as we did.

 

[Garbageyuk]

I never said you used it exclusively, but using a broken metric doesn't actually provide any insight. Even if you filter out all the non-sensical results like Hoffman you can't be sure that it's going to provide good results or not because you know it does provide non-sense and there's no way of knowing whether you are getting non-sense with any player or not.

I just explained to you how Barkov and Hoffman are different in this regard. If you refuse to evaluate things and/or consider details, context, and nuance, then yes, all you’ll get is nonsense. That doesn’t mean the stat has no value. I presented it with the relevant details, context, and nuance, so it is as valid as anything else. You’re pretending otherwise to prop up your narrative. Suzuki is simply not a top defensive C, and the stats and metrics (not just tk/gv) support that.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I just explained to you how Barkov and Hoffman are different in this regard. If you refuse to evaluate things and/or consider details, context, and nuance, then yes, all you’ll get is nonsense. That doesn’t mean the stat has no value. I presented it with the relevant details, context, and nuance, so it is as valid as anything else. You’re pretending otherwise to prop up your narrative. Suzuki is simply not a top defensive C, and the stats and metrics (not just tk/gv) support that.

I don’t have an issue with anyone who says the jury’s still out on him being a number one but he looked incredible at the end of last year. He finished close to a point per game, 30 plus goals and string two way play. He was one of the best players in the league down the stretch…

I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Sorinth]

Tampa had like 6 players better than our best scorer. Suzuki did an admirable job but he was hardly a number one center. And he had Dannault doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

Carey Price is the reason we went as far as we did.

Price was without question the teams MVP, but Suzuki was playing as the teams #1 C and made it within 3 wins of SC with basically no offensive support. So to say you can't win the cup with Suzuki as the teams #1 C is nonsense. Every SC contender has people who help by doing a lot of the heavy lifting, that's the nature of the game and why McDavid doesn't have a cup, one person is never enough.

 

[Garbageyuk]

I don’t have an issue with anyone who says the jury’s still out on him being a number one but he looked incredible at the end of last year. He finished close to a point per game, 30 plus goals and string two way play. He was one of the best players in the league down the stretch…

I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.

The benefit of the doubt that he’s a good player and a 1C? Yes.

But is he a top level defensive C or the kind of C you win Cups with? No. At least not yet.

If he can sustain his play from the latter part of last year, he’ll be well on his way. But that remains to be seen.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Contenders tend to have more then 1 good line, so even if you aren't facing the Kucherov and Point line you're facing the Stamkos line instead. Facing one line vs the other is irrelevant because either way you're facing elite players who were at the top of their games and for those true contenders the difference between the line 1 and line 2 is basically non-existent. You don't have easy matchups facing Malkin instead of Crosby you have a tough matchup regardless.

There's a difference between facing the McDavid-Hyman-Nuge line and the Draisaitl line (whichever scrub was with him), just like there's a difference with Crosby and Malkin way back, whether you want to recognize it or not. You want to use the word elite loosely so you can pretend that difference doesn't exist. And anyway, you're starting to move goalposts as if you look closely, your arguments shows Suzuki wasn't a de facto #1, whether in this post or the one before.

Listen, here's an example that might drive the point better. Who was the right D on the line for most of Caufield and Suzuki's points all throughtout the playoffs? It was Jeff Petry. Who do you think was shutdown versus exploitation between Petry and Weber?

This is the last response I'll make on this because at this point you're starting to deny reality (difference in strenghts/line matchups), and I don't feel like having to argue over a fact most people with a modicum of hockey knowledge will recognize.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Price was without question the teams MVP, but Suzuki was playing as the teams #1 C and made it within 3 wins of SC with basically no offensive support. So to say you can't win the cup with Suzuki as the teams #1 C is nonsense. Every SC contender has people who help by doing a lot of the heavy lifting, that's the nature of the game and why McDavid doesn't have a cup, one person is never enough.

You’ve been corrected several times by multiple people. He was not the 1C.

And it isn’t “nonsense” to say that no team in the modern era has won a Cup without having a better C than Suzuki; it’s fact.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Price was without question the teams MVP, but Suzuki was playing as the teams #1 C and made it within 3 wins of SC with basically no offensive support. So to say you can't win the cup with Suzuki as the teams #1 C is nonsense. Every SC contender has people who help by doing a lot of the heavy lifting, that's the nature of the game and why McDavid doesn't have a cup, one person is never enough.

As I said, he played admirably for a young player. But he wasn’t dominant.

Carey Price isn’t here anymore. We’re going to have to have a significantly better team than we did back then if we want to go to the finals again. Suzuki is a better player than he was and hopefully he will continue to improve. But I wouldn’t use 2021 as evidence that he can lead us anywhere.