The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[The Last Red]

Okay. Let’s say they’re the only two superstars coming up. Two superstars alone is enough to make you a contending team if you’ve got a good support group.

Then you add in Suzuki, CC, Slaf, Laine, Ghule, Hage, Beck, Fowler, RB…. That’s a lot of talent here or on the way. It’s not just the high end talent we’ve got, it’s the volume.

Some will miss. Mailloux, Roy, Dach… we’ll wait and see. Maybe they don’t materialize. A guy like Engstrom may not be able to crack the lineup on the left side. Some will hit and some will miss. We know this. It’s the nature of rebuilding. Not all your prospects pan out. And btw, some will be better than expected. I don’t expect Fowler to be a star but I also wouldn’t be shocked by it. We’ll have to wait and see.

When you’ve got a volume of strong players in the pipeline you’re in good shape. Few teams have the quality and volume that we have. That’s just a fact.

Okay but let’s get an actual NHL coach to coach them.

 

[Habby4Life]

Okay. Let’s say they’re the only two superstars coming up. Two superstars alone is enough to make you a contending team if you’ve got a good support group.

Then you add in Suzuki, CC, Slaf, Laine, Ghule, Hage, Beck, Fowler, RB…. That’s a lot of talent here or on the way. It’s not just the high end talent we’ve got, it’s the volume.

Some will miss. Mailloux, Roy, Dach… we’ll wait and see. Maybe they don’t materialize. A guy like Engstrom may not be able to crack the lineup on the left side. Some will hit and some will miss. We know this. It’s the nature of rebuilding. Not all your prospects pan out. And btw, some will be better than expected. I don’t expect Fowler to be a star but I also wouldn’t be shocked by it. We’ll have to wait and see.

When you’ve got a volume of strong players in the pipeline you’re in good shape. Few teams have the quality and volume that we have. That’s just a fact.

I don’t see the “volume of strong players in the pipeline” like you do. Outside Lane and Demidov I see an ok prospect pool, nothing special.

The young guys that are actually doing something NS, CC, Guhle, Monty are all Berg picks or acquisitions. The Hugo moves like Dach and Newhook look like a waste and Slaf ain’t looking that great either.

So far Laine looks like a good acquisition (I was right on that too) but more time is needed. Lane was a good pick but hate to say it, he won’t be a top pair guy, just too small. Good PP guy but outside Guhle they don’t have many young Top 4 D prospects. DR maybe but it’s unfortunate we got hurt because this would have been a big year for his development.

This team is years from sniffing the playoffs. In fact, I will come out and say it now, if Hugo doesn’t have a very good summer this rebuild will be Buffalo.

Oh, and he hired a Mickey Mouse coaching staff.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Okay but let’s get an actual NHL coach to coach them.

Coming into this season, almost every prospect had improved under MSL.

This year started horribly. We had 10 losses sandwiching two wins. A 4 and 6 game losing streak. Awful stuff.

Since then, the team’s play has improved dramatically. Yes, there have been a couple of blowouts. But that was entirely expected. We’ll have more blowouts coming before the year is over. The team just isn’t all that good.

Dach has killed us. Him playing poorly has had spin off effects on depth guys like Newhook and Slaf. And that goes all the way back to camp where it probably hurt a guy like Roy as well.

I never expected him be that bad. I thought he’d be 60+ but had him down as a safe 50. I’m sure that’s what the Habs thought they had too. Instead he’s shot the bed and it’s really f***ed up the team. I was wrong and so was the team. I can’t blame them for that. In hindsight, I had made the same error with CC last year. I discounted the injury and shouldn’t have. (Ironically I did take Laine’s injuries into account and he’s gone the other way - played great. Injuries and how players recover isn’t really predictable.)

Anyways, if you’re going to say the team is shit, then I don’t think you can’t just point your finger at the coach. He’s actually improved team play while in-season and done it without a 2nd line center. That’s not easy to do.

 

[The Last Red]

Coming into this season, almost every prospect had improved under MSL.

This year started horribly. We had 10 losses sandwiching two wins. A 4 and 6 game losing streak. Awful stuff.

Since then, the team’s play has improved dramatically. Yes, there have been a couple of blowouts. But that was entirely expected. We’ll have more blowouts coming before the year is over. The team just isn’t all that good.

Dach has killed us. Him playing poorly has had spin off effects on depth guys like Newhook and Slaf. And that goes all the way back to camp where it probably hurt a guy like Roy as well.

I never expected him be that bad. I thought he’d be 60+ but had him down as a safe 50. I’m sure that’s what the Habs thought they had too. Instead he’s shot the bed and it’s really f***ed up the team. I was wrong and so was the team. I can’t blame them for that. In hindsight, I had made the same error with CC last year. I discounted the injury and shouldn’t have. (Ironically I did take Laine’s injuries into account and he’s gone the other way - played great. Injuries and how players recover isn’t really predictable.)

Anyways, if you’re going to say the team is shit, then I don’t think you can’t just point your finger at the coach. He’s actually improved team play while in-season and done it without a 2nd line center. That’s not easy to do.

Both can be true at the same time: the team is not good and neither is the coach. And you can’t just discount the 4 and 6 game losing streaks. They occurred.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don’t see the “volume of strong players in the pipeline” like you do. Outside Lane and Demidov I see an ok prospect pool, nothing special.

Fowler is one of the five best goalie prospects outside the NHL. Reinbacher (despite maybe being drafted too high) is considered a top prospect. Hage is killing it. So are Engstrom, Roy and Beck. Then you’ve got a good top line who are already producing and Guhle.

Want to say it’s not ‘special’? Okay cool. But there are a LOT of good prospects there. And there aren’t many teams out there that can match it.

The young guys that are actually doing something NS, CC, Guhle, Monty are all Berg picks or acquisitions. The Hugo moves like Dach and Newhook look like a waste and Slaf ain’t looking that great either.

Of course they’re Berg acquisitions. Why would that be surprising? Most of Hugo’s prospects aren’t with the team yet. And those who are are extremely young.

So far Laine looks like a good acquisition (I was right on that too) but more time is needed. Lane was a good pick but hate to say it, he won’t be a top pair guy, just too small. Good PP guy but outside Guhle they don’t have many young Top 4 D prospects. DR maybe but it’s unfortunate we got hurt because this would have been a big year for his development.

Lane Hutson already has some of the best numbers in the league. He looks very much like a potential superstar. He will be limited in what he can do (just as other smallish blueliners)) but that won’t prevent him from being a star player. If you’re going to say Michkov’s a potential superstar then Hutson definitely is as well.

This team is years from sniffing the playoffs. In fact, I will come out and say it now, if Hugo doesn’t have a very good summer this rebuild will be Buffalo.

Oh, and he hired a Mickey Mouse coaching staff.

Always chance it could be Buffalo. That’s always a possibility whenever you rebuild. But I don’t think so.

We have holes that need addressing. 2nd line center and RD. But we’ve also got so much to trade with. Matheson for example can be shipped out as well as picks/prospects. We have an abundance now and I suspect you’ll see us Making some more trades.

As it is though, we have one of the best collection of young players/prospects in the league. We were recently ranked number one and I think most publications would have us top five.

So yeah, he’s wrong.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Both can be true at the same time: the team is not good and neither is the coach.

Sure. But we have examples of how players improved under MSL coming into this year. We’ve also seen the club play much better after a horrible start. Those are arguments in his favour.

 

[The Last Red]

Sure. But we have examples of how players improved under MSL coming into this year. We’ve also seen the club play much better after a horrible start. Those are arguments in his favour.

Okay. This year is happening too. Slaf is regressing, Newhook has regressed, Dach . . . Also, this team doesn’t seem to understand how to play defense, and mails it in frequently. I’m positive that’s not my fault . . . or yours. And that Dach line needs to be broken up. So slow.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Okay. This year is happening too. Slaf is regressing, Newhook has regressed, Dach . . .

Slaf got off to a great start before getting injured. Then he wound up with Dach and it killed him. I don’t think he’s healthy right now but we’ll see how he does on the top line.

Newhook’s play instantly improved once he got away from Dach. Dach has been a black hole this year. A huge crushing loss for us. As I said before the year began, ‘Kirby Dach is the key to our season.’ And he has been - in a very bad way.

If Dach were playing like he used to or if we had a better guy in that chair, we’d be so much better off. He’s not the only reason we’ve struggled but he’s a huge one. Us not having a decent natural Rd in the lineup hurts too.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Okay. This year is happening too. Slaf is regressing, Newhook has regressed, Dach . . . Also, this team doesn’t seem to understand how to play defense, and mails it in frequently. I’m positive that’s not my fault . . . or yours. And that Dach line needs to be broken up. So slow.

You do understand there are ebbs and flows to progression with prospects and that's it not always linear right? Slaf's struggles aren't all that surprising, and quite frankly, for some of it, he has noone to blame but himself. Marty isn't the one who's not skating or being physically engaged enough, that's on Juraj.

Also, you understand the effects a devestating ACL injury that robs an athlete a year of playing time has on a player right? Because that is what Dach is going through, this is not an indictment of Marty. It's a unfortuate circumstance they're both having to deal with. Thus leaving a big hole in the 2C spot.

Also the team's D is the youngest in the league, playing with 3 and a half babies on the backend, some playing on their wrong sides, again not Marty's fault, it just is what it is. But due to the frustration of losses, and impatience of dealing with a rebuild, you all need someone or something to blame, so Marty it is.

Without the context of the situation, Marty's the lowest hanging fruit, and despite all that's he's having to deal with, has had the team moving in the right direction for weeks.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Nope, he nailed it. Nothing special about the habs prospects outside of lane and Demidov.

We can look back at it in a few years just like we did with Newhook, Dach, and Roy.

Hage is having a slightly better D+1 freshman NCAA div1 season than Caufield did at the same age. NCAA has produced a shit ton of talent in the last 10 years. It's now the best development league in the world and gets better every year.

And there's also Fowler. Many scouts are really high on Fowler.

And Beck is having a great season as a 20 years old in the AHL. Very promising player.

He didn't nail anything. He exagerated.

I was among the people who complained about the Slaf pick. I was among the people who were wary of the Dach trade and would've prefered keeping the pick we got for Romy. I was non-plussed by the Lekhonen trade and would've prefered keeping him and trading Anderson instead. I was vocal about not liking the Newhook trade when it happened. I wanted Michkov. I even made fun of Hugobob with a Culture Club meme. Still I'm level-headed enough to 1-know a GM can't be perfect 2-needs to take gambles 3-will inevitably fail on some of those gambles 4-not minimize the actual difficulty of rebuilding 5-be realistic about how a rebuild can go, including the actual time it takes for drafted players to come in and also develop 6-not minimize what was actually accomplished.

Rebuilds aren't succesful by doing trades to jump start the rebuild. That's something a GM does because of ownership . Rebuilds are succesful by how they draft and that's where you and whoever else are completely bonkers and delusional.

Our first rebuild draft was 2 years ago. To judge it now like you both did is just hyperbolic temper tantrum venting.

If a team can get two NHLers out of a draft, it's usually a succesful draft. First draft we have Hutson, Slaf and Beck who are all looking like they'll be bonafide NHLers. Second draft, Reinbacher and Fowler could potentially both be quality NHLers. Third draft we have Demidov and Hage who are also looking to be quality NHLers. It's very probable we'll get at least 7 NHLers, mostly all of high quality in the span of 3 years and that's despite all the picks traded away to try to float a better team and speed-up the rebuild.

Despite those trades I didn't like, the Monahan and Laine trades (all 3 trades) are of high quality and have still to bear fruit, with the Flo/Cal pick we'll get this year and whether Laine becomes a fixture or gets traded for a massive haul next TDL.

There's a lot to like about the rebuild so far. I don't like the moves made to speed it up, but it's far from the most important component of the rebuild.