Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[Sorinth]

Had to dust off an old file, sorry for the delay.

I was wrong, he's not the worst producing 1OA (or 2OA, first picked forward) of the last quarter century since his draft. I was totally wrong so thanks of the stat check.

He's in the bottom5 in PPG with: Patrik Stefan, Jordan Staal, Nail Yakupov, Alexis Lafreniere, and Juraj Slafkovsky.

My honest to God feeling is that I still do not understand why someone with his size, reach, horsepower, and bravado cannot produce more. When he tore the league up last year it felt like a revelation. I don't know why he's not doing it again. He has all the tools. Something is missing.

View attachment 957030

The takeaway from this should be early production doesn't actually doesn't mean much. RNH being well ahead of many on the list who had better careers is one example, but a more interesting one is Hughes vs Hischier. Hughes being and very likely continuing to be more productive then Hischier over their careers yet these numbers say they should be about the same. Hischier started off more prepared for the NHL and as a result had more initial success but he hasn't progressed a lot since that initial season. Meanwhile Hughes was arguably not able to handle the NHL at 18, but improved siginificantly and has easily surpassed Hischier offensively. That early success or lack thereof just isn't a good indication of what a players potential is because being more physically NHL ready at 18 doesn't have anything to do with your potential in your prime years when then guys who weren't physically ready at 18 actually do become physically ready in their 20s.

It's not how good you are to start, it's whether you continue to develop or just plateau. I think you'd probably get more value looking at a players delta from one season to the next because being able to handle the NHL at 18 is never going to be all that meaningful for a players career outlook.

Bringing this to Slaf and comparing him to Beniers, your table says Beniers is better then Slaf but a lot of that has to do with the fact that at 18 Beniers spent most of the year in the NCAA while Slaf was in the NHL and not really ready for it. If we ignore the 18 year old season for both players, Slaf comes out ahead of Beniers in PPG. But also when we look at progress Beniers has really struggled to replicate his early success, his ppg has gone from 0.9->0.71->0.48->0.55, his P/60 went from 2.27->2.20->1.27->1.53. Meanwhile Slaf's ppg went from 0.26->0.61->0.58, and his P/60 has gone from 1.14->1.73->1.94. I know whose statline I would prefer going forward.

 

[Naslundforever]

I think you’re being hyperbolic. He’s nowhere near that bad.

Nah.

Maybe MSL was hyperbolic when he benched him the entire 3rd. At least I’m trying to figure out why he looks so bad. White knighting is not bringing much.

 

[bsl]

Dude is so good he gets a new thread.

Here’s the old one for nostalgic purposes.

Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

Here we are in year two already. And the big question that has repeatedly been asked or argued about is where he should spend the year. As such, we’re adding a poll. Regardless of where he plays, let’s hope for the best. He’s obviously got talent. Hopefully he puts it together.

forums.hfboards.com

Please change parabolic to exponential. It’s annoying.

 

[Trabdy2]

I'm not that concerned about Slafkovsky, but I definitely had higher expectations this year than his performance is giving us.

He's still so young and bigger players seem to take longer to develop and find consistency in their game. We're getting ups and downs. At some point he'll start more consistently be giving the "ups", and it probably won't be for a year or two.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Maybe MSL was hyperbolic when he benched him the entire 3rd. At least I’m trying to figure out why he looks so bad.

Being benched in a game isn’t unusual for younger players. That doesn’t mean he’s having a horrific season.

White knighting is not bringing much.

I see a lot of people saying he needs improvement. That’s not white knighting.

 

[dauv]

i think Waze is re-routing..... lol

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Please change parabolic to exponential. It’s annoying.

Sorry bud. You’ll just have to live with it.

 

[Naslundforever]

Being benched in a game isn’t unusual for younger players. That doesn’t mean he’s having a horrific season.


I see a lot of people saying he needs improvement. That’s not white knighting.

I am literally writing being benched isn’t his usual floor as a player and still you are calling me out for even talking about his struggles.

I really don’t recall saying horrific (I believe you have been the one using it).

I am saying you are white knighting. I read one great post about how he might be incorporating new knowledge and adjusting, another about how he can’t rely on being the biggest guy on the ice anymore (which I guess compounds the 1st good point @Habs Halifax made.

The rest is people insulting posters, their tone, and worse shutting down conversations by creating these false dichotomies.

 

[ReHabs]

The takeaway from this should be early production doesn't actually doesn't mean much. RNH being well ahead of many on the list who had better careers is one example, but a more interesting one is Hughes vs Hischier. Hughes being and very likely continuing to be more productive then Hischier over their careers yet these numbers say they should be about the same. Hischier started off more prepared for the NHL and as a result had more initial success but he hasn't progressed a lot since that initial season. Meanwhile Hughes was arguably not able to handle the NHL at 18, but improved siginificantly and has easily surpassed Hischier offensively. That early success or lack thereof just isn't a good indication of what a players potential is because being more physically NHL ready at 18 doesn't have anything to do with your potential in your prime years when then guys who weren't physically ready at 18 actually do become physically ready in their 20s.

It's not how good you are to start, it's whether you continue to develop or just plateau. I think you'd probably get more value looking at a players delta from one season to the next because being able to handle the NHL at 18 is never going to be all that meaningful for a players career outlook.

Bringing this to Slaf and comparing him to Beniers, your table says Beniers is better then Slaf but a lot of that has to do with the fact that at 18 Beniers spent most of the year in the NCAA while Slaf was in the NHL and not really ready for it. If we ignore the 18 year old season for both players, Slaf comes out ahead of Beniers in PPG. But also when we look at progress Beniers has really struggled to replicate his early success, his ppg has gone from 0.9->0.71->0.48->0.55, his P/60 went from 2.27->2.20->1.27->1.53. Meanwhile Slaf's ppg went from 0.26->0.61->0.58, and his P/60 has gone from 1.14->1.73->1.94. I know whose statline I would prefer going forward.

Many ways to play with stats. My dusty old chart is nothing more than a very simple PPG comparison. P/60 isn’t a great stat, I tend to avoid it.

You are right in that the criticisms are so hyperbolic.

Is Slaf a little frustrating now with his lack of intensity? Yes. Are there moments where I wish he was doing more? Absolutely.

But to say his play is catastrophic is so f***ing exaggerated. No, he isn't playing like a top line player, but he's no slouch. He's still generating chances every game, playing responsible defensively and not actively hurting the team while playing at a 50 point pace. Yes, there is a lot to improve. But f***ing hell, some of the comments are insane.

At 20, he's already a reliable top 6 player. He's still learning.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I am literally writing being benched isn’t his usual floor as a player and still you are calling me out for even talking about his struggles.

No. I questioned what you meant by 'ravenous' lows and said it was hyperbolic.

I really don’t recall saying horrific (I believe you have been the one using it).

I am saying you are white knighting. I read one great post about how he might be incorporating new knowledge and adjusting, another about how he can’t rely on being the biggest guy on the ice anymore (which I guess compounds the 1st good point @Habs Halifax made.

The rest is people insulting posters, their tone, and worse shutting down conversations by creating these false dichotomies.

The guy's on pace for 50 points. I think most expected more. But this season is far from a disaster. That's why I called you on your post. It's one thing to say he's been disappointing it's another thing to go overboard. That's why I asked you - what ravenous lows?

You're allowed to criticize the guy and we're allowed to call you out for it. It's not white knighting to do this. It works both ways man... dump on him if you want to but be prepared to back it up when you're called out.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Many ways to play with stats. My dusty old chart is nothing more than a very simple PPG comparison. P/60 isn’t a great stat, I tend to avoid it.

Except points were all you talked about until he started producing. They were ALL that mattered to you.

Again, you are being disingenuous. You think people don't remember your posts?

 

[habdynasty]

“Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers”

 

[Erika]

I hadn't updated it since some point of last season, because I thought the debate was over. I had to find the excel file in an old folder. The initial point of the tool was my attempt to prove Slaf was being misplayed in the NHL... and on a bad path. I was adamant that he should've started his career in the AHL or back in Liiga. After the second-half season he had, where he smoked the league, it seemed the Habs were proven right and I was proven wrong so the debate was settled.

Why do you guys always insist on bad faith when there's a far more clear answer -- I had to update the numbers on an old excel file. It's not so complicated. Why would I need to troll for a reaction when I could elicit a reaction with facts just as well?

I didn't follow that draft too closely because I thought it was guaranteed to be Shane Wright. The few weeks leading to the draft were much more frustrating because I insisted it should be Shane Wright because I didn't want the Habs to "galaxy brain" the pick -- this was a new Habs leadership and I didn't trust them, being the pessimist I am. I thought Slaf's prospect profile didn't show a 1OA pick just as much as Shane Wright's prospect profile declined. I didn't rate Logan Cooley due to his size. I thought Jiricek was much more interesting than Nemec.

In 2023 and 2024 I had my preferences but 2022 I went with the default and argued for the default. I was wrong about that too, obviously.

You said it yourself... last year where he smoked the league... at 19 years old. What makes you think he can't reproduce that kind of level of play moving forward in his upcoming seasons ? Players development aren't linear... it's full of ups and downs, just like the stocks market.

At the end of those 6-7 years, what you want to see is if that player got better than what he was 6 years ago. What he is right now and next and the year after is negligeable in the big picture.
Slaf is a long term project, still is and that's what he should be evaluated like imo.

Just let him play and develop, come back 6 years later to check the investment and evaluate if you should sell him or keep depending on his development result.

 

[Erika]

“Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers”

but losers aren't dying at the end of the movie, bullies and wannabe heroes will.
If you are into asian movies, or Squid games recently haha

 

[Naslundforever]

No. I questioned what you meant by 'ravenous' lows and said it was hyperbolic.

The guy's on pace for 50 points. I think most expected more. But this season is far from a disaster. That's why I called you on your post. It's one thing to say he's been disappointing it's another thing to go overboard. That's why I asked you - what ravenous lows?

You're allowed to criticize the guy and we're allowed to call you out for it. It's not white knighting to do this. It works both ways man... dump on him if you want to but be prepared to back it up when you're called out.

k you’re right he’s probably playing to his potential right now and wondering why he is struggling should be called out sorry for my confusion.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Wait, Pezzeta is leading the team in CF% (whatever that is) by double digits? Cool! He should play more then.

 

[LaP]

Wait, Pezzeta is leading the team in CF% (whatever that is) by double digits? Cool! He should play more then.

Ross Atkins please stay the **** away from hockey.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Ross Atkins please stay the **** away from hockey.

Pezzeta first line scoring winger, let's make it happen. Struble can play on the other wing.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

k you’re right he’s probably playing to his potential right now

No. That’s not what people have said.

People have said he’s not playing up to his potential. The team got off to an awful start and he got hurt. He’s lacked last year’s intensity and it’s possible some complacency has crept in.

Hopefully getting benched lights a fire under his ass.

and wondering why he is struggling should be called out sorry for my confusion.

Wrong again.

You talked like he was a bum and said he’s hit ravenous lows. You were questioned on it and ever since you’ve been throwing a hissy fit in being questioned rather than just defending what you were arguing.

Okay, let’s try this again: what ravenous lows were you talking about? Tell us more about what you think about this player.

 

[Naslundforever]

No. That’s not what people have said.

People have said he’s not playing up to his potential. The team got off to an awful start and he got hurt. He’s lacked last year’s intensity and it’s possible some complacency has crept in.

Hopefully getting benched lights a fire under his ass.

Wrong again.

You talked like he was a bum and said he’s hit ravenous lows. You were questioned on it and ever since you’ve been throwing a hissy fit in being questioned rather than just defending what you were arguing.

Okay, let’s try this again: what ravenous lows were you talking about? Tell us more about what you think about this player.

I also said mountainous highs. As in he’s inconsistent. As a 20 year old. As in we don’t need to overreact. Sorry for the big words in a thread that uses « parabolic ».

He’s not playing well, this is a low for him and I think normally an average game for him will not see him benched in the third.

You are calling me out for things others have said, chill.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I also said mountainous highs. As in he’s inconsistent. As a 20 year old. As in we don’t need to overreact. Sorry for the big words in a thread that uses « parabolic ».

He’s not playing well, this is a low for him and I think normally an average game for him will not see him benched in the third.

You are calling me out for things others have said, chill.

I asked you to explain what you meant. Then you did everything but.

I suggest you take your own advice.

 

[Toene]

I've been posting here for well over twenty years.

It's posters like yourself that have caused my interactions on this forum to dwindle. I have no interest in the hot take water cooler types that don't know what they are talking about but think being the loudest makes them correct.

I have to say I do not share your philosophy about how this board works. I come online, log in, and then I look around and share some stuff I have on my mind about the Habs. It's like a journal, but people can respond. Discussions ensue. Sometimes those go more in depth, sometimes it's just a quick, cheeky back-and-forth.

I've only been here 12-13 years, but in my experience, the current era of HFHabs is one of the best imo. Maybe I dont notice the drama as much. since I dont really get as into it as I would back in the Therrien years for example. But right now, it's pretty chill. Some posters get obsessed and some are really thin-skinned, sure, but the tone is overall is far from acrimonious.

Back to my point is, I don't see it the same way as you. Other posters' lack of "crow-eating" have zero impact on if I participate here. I even enjoy wild takes since it gets the conversation going. Just my 2 cents. Also I'm a high school teacher, so if I was discouraged from giving classes because of the ratio of dumb/smart takes I hear from the teenagers it'd be a really long career lol.

 

[_vivelequebec_]

Eat it haters

 

[_vivelequebec_]

wrong thread

 

[Jurivan Demidovsky]

Eat it haters

Bustkovsky with a beautiful assist. Playing great tonight so far.