Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

Andy

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Jun 26, 2008
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Fascinating comment.

A lot of commentators who’ve previously proven to be mindful and knowledgeable about hockey have remarked on Slaf’s decision-making or preponderance to make weird choices on the ice and with the puck. How a player so big can make position himself to eat so many hits and impacts… But you instantly laugh at them, so I guess it’s not worth talking about.
Yes, I instantly laugh at fans who question the hockey IQ of one the teams best passers. It is not easy to "see" some of the passing lanes that Slaf sees, let alone make those passes (which he consistently does).

A player lacking hockey IQ would not be able to either. Trying to problematize this aspect of his game screams 1. agenda 2. lack of understanding of the game 3. both.

He's a big dude who is learning to incorporate a grinding aspect to his game at the highest level of competition. He's going to eat a number of hits as many young players do. Guhle still gets wrecked frequently. It's all part of the processes of learning how to use your body.

And it's normal, bigger players don't have to learn this aspect of the game when they play against their age peers. It's why smaller players usually are more developed at picking their spots because they had to be mindful of this their whole careers.

it's like most of you don't watch hockey outside the habs.
 

ReHabs

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Struggling to learn is the actual real life definition of “low IQ”. The definition is more generic in sports talk but adapting and learning is a part of “sports IQ” all the same.

If Slaf is in the process of learning something but 2.5 seasons into his career has not yet managed to get a hold of it — for instance, not eating hits when standing 4 feet from the boards — it would therefore mean he is struggling to learn.

trying to problematize this aspect of his game screams 1. agenda 2. lack of understanding of the game 3. both.
Slaf has no problems he’s a perfect player. It’s all the agenda speaking.
 

Victoire HuGo

Formerly le Barron de HF
Mar 12, 2008
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Struggling to learn is the actual real life definition of “low IQ”. The definition is more generic in sports talk but adapting and learning is a part of “sports IQ” all the same.

If Slaf is in the process of learning something but 2.5 seasons into his career has not yet managed to get a hold of it — for instance, not eating hits when standing 4 feet from the boards — it would therefore mean he is struggling to learn.


Slaf has no problems he’s a perfect player. It’s all the agenda speaking.
He was not getting knocked on his ass last year. Maybe that weight he lost has some of it to do with it. Or his loss in quickness to be better positioned. Also I think saying he's still working on same elements as rookie season is dishonest.
 
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Goalfield13

In Bilbo We Trust
Aug 31, 2021
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Yes, I instantly laugh at fans who question the hockey IQ of one the teams best passers. It is not easy to "see" some of the passing lanes that Slaf sees, let alone make those passes (which he consistently does).

A player lacking hockey IQ would not be able to either. Trying to problematize this aspect of his game screams 1. agenda 2. lack of understanding of the game 3. both.

He's a big dude who is learning to incorporate a grinding aspect to his game at the highest level of competition. He's going to eat a number of hits as many young players do. Guhle still gets wrecked frequently. It's all part of the processes of learning how to use your body.

And it's normal, bigger players don't have to learn this aspect of the game when they play against their age peers. It's why smaller players usually are more developed at picking their spots because they had to be mindful of this their whole careers.

it's like most of you don't watch hockey outside the habs.
This is a pretty easy argument. He's 20. He's learning to play in a league where he isn't the biggest and strongest guy out there, which is what he is used to. He's had his ups and downs. He already has a season of 20 goals and 50 poiints. While this isn't technically his sophmore year, I treat it as such. He was never drafted to be elite, but instead a top 6 player with size. That's already what he is, and he will get better. People need to chillax.
 

Andy

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This is a pretty easy argument. He's 20. He's learning to play in a league where he isn't the biggest and strongest guy out there, which is what he is used to. He's had his ups and downs. He already has a season of 20 goals and 50 poiints. While this isn't technically his sophmore year, I treat it as such. He was never drafted to be elite, but instead a top 6 player with size. That's already what he is, and he will get better. People need to chillax.
Yup. 100%. Awesome post.
 

ReHabs

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He was not getting knocked on his ass last year. Maybe that weight he lost has some of it to do with it. Or his loss in quickness to be better positioned. Also I think saying he's still working on same elements as rookie season is dishonest.
He has been getting hit every year; whether on or off form he’s been taking knocks and hits regularly and at a higher pace than one would figure. He’s a hit magnet.

His passive physical game is absolutely a work in progress. Implying that he is a finished product is dishonest.
 
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Andy

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Struggling to learn is the actual real life definition of “low IQ”.
He's 20 years old. He's played only 157 nhl games.

He's going to continue to learn and that has nothing to do with IQ and everything to do with being an nhl player. No one is a finished product, and even the greats have stuff to learn.

Facing challenges in your 3rd season is normal for most players. Slaf is not a generational talent, so expecting him to be a finished product at 20 is unreasonable.
 

ReHabs

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Slaf is not a generational talent, so expecting him to be a finished product at 20 is unreasonable.
Slaf isn’t McDavid-Crosby-Ovechkin level? Oh… I’m going to have to sit down. You’ve rocked my world with your bravery.

Now can we get back to earth. The guy’s getting benched 157 games into his career, he’s a core player and his coach benches him — what do YOU think is the problem here?
 
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Andy

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Slaf isn’t McDavid-Crosby-Ovechkin level? Oh… I’m going to have to sit down. You’ve rocked my world with your bravery.

Now can we get back to earth. The guy’s getting benched 157 games into his career, he’s a core player and his coach benches him — what do YOU think is the problem here?
He's a kid. Pacioretty was sent to the nhl at 21 years old before he came back ready to be a consistent top line player.

Not being generation has everything to do with it because you are not so subtly holding him to a generational level standard when he isn't. He's a 20 year nhl player with still many things to learn. Being drafted 1OA doesn't change any of that.

As for what I think the problem is, it's clearly your unrealistic expectations because you can't separate draft status from what is an actual reasonable for the player acquired.
 

Goalfield13

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Aug 31, 2021
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Slaf isn’t McDavid-Crosby-Ovechkin level? Oh… I’m going to have to sit down. You’ve rocked my world with your bravery.

Now can we get back to earth. The guy’s getting benched 157 games into his career, he’s a core player and his coach benches him — what do YOU think is the problem here?
157 games as a 20 year old. He's developing in the NHL. YOU are the problem. Patience, man.
 

The Gr8 Dane

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Jan 19, 2018
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Slaf has no problems he’s a perfect player. It’s all the agenda speaking.
Nobody is calling him perfect but he's a 6"3 230 pound kid that's still 20 years old.

I don't see this sky is falling narrative you're trying to point out. Everybody can see he is struggling but he's still capable of good things. You are acting like his struggles are setting the franchise back a decade or something , as if we passed on 5 ppg 20 year olds to get him
 

ReHabs

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Nobody is calling him perfect but he's a 6"3 230 pound kid that's still 20 years old.
His size and age are irrelevant to the topic.
I don't see this sky is falling narrative you're trying to point out. Everybody can see he is struggling but he's still capable of good things. You are acting like his struggles are setting the franchise back a decade or something , as if we passed on 5 ppg 20 year olds to get him
The topic is: why is he struggling? What is his struggle, even?

I’m not relitigating the draft or any undue expectations. I’m talking about Slafkvosky as we see him today.

What do you think is his struggle?
 

Rapala

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Slaf's value down the road does not rest strictly on production.

What I would like to see is a progression of the game that made him a Beast in a number of games down the stretch last season.
More speed more net drive better technique using his size and strength resulting in better board play and cleaner play making.

Improvements in all those areas will make him the hard heavy player we envisioned he could be when drafted him.
He has been far too easy to play against this season change that and more line production will naturally follow.
 

Andy

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Being drafted 1OA doesn't mean being productive immediately or being fully developed at 20. Players have different growth rates.

Look at other fellow 1OA players like RNH, Hischier, Lafreniere.

RHN stayed a 50 point player for 7 seasons.
Lafreniere achieved 20 goals and 50 points in his 4th season.
Hischier broke out of the 50 point pace range in his 5th season.

This also doesn't mean that the best we can hope for is this level of player. It's just simply to show that draft status does not dictate pace of development, nor does it imply that a player will not have struggles that young players do.
 

Egresch

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So lately with Slafkovsky going back to his bad ways, there have been some valid concerns but also some hot takes on whether the team made a terrible mistake committing that kind of money for 8 years. Reminder: this a big player who’s still 20 years old and they are even more inconsistent than other players. I’ll be tackling the question on whether or not we should be concerned on Slafkovsky’s upcoming contract and whether it will affect negatively the window of this team by the time they can compete.

Information that was used for this analysis was the salary cap year by year starting on 2007-2008 to determine the cap hit % of each deal. Slafkovsky will represent a cap hit of 8.2% for year one of his deal.

Season2007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202022-20232023-20242024-20252025-2026
Salary Cap$ 50,300,000$ 56,700,000$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 64,300,000$ 69,000,000$ 71,400,000$ 73,000,000$ 75,000,000$ 79,500,000$ 81,500,000$ 82,500,000$ 83,500,000$ 88,000,000$ 92,400,000
Equivalence in salary based on cap hit %$ 4,124,600$ 4,649,400$ 4,657,600$ 4,870,800$ 5,272,600$ 5,658,000$ 5,854,800$ 5,986,000$ 6,150,000$ 6,519,000$ 6,683,000$ 6,765,000$ 6,847,000$ 7,216,000$ 7,600,000


Part A:

Should Slaf have been signed to a bridge deal?

One idea that’s been thrown is that Slafkovsky should have been at a short deal. Cheap plug (HF Habs: - Analysis - The Inconsistency that come with Big Forwards) but after looking back at the comparables that there are for Slaf (forwards over 6 ft 2 that were picked in the top 15) and analyzing what contracts they were given, did management potentially make the right decision based on historical data. By narrowing down players who produced similar numbers during their ELC (0.65 to 0.72 PPG). I came up with a list of 11 players since 2003 draft.

NameNotesAAVYearsSalary CapCap Hit %Best Season (pts)AgeContract DetailsCap Hit %2nd Best SeasonAgeContract Details3rd Best SeasonAgeContract DetailsAssessmentBridge was/would have been best move?
HortonBridge 1 year 1.1M after ELC$ 4,000,000
6​
$ 50,300,000
8.0%​
57 (in 65 GP)
24​
$ 4,000,000
7.0%​
62​
21​
$ 1,100,000
62​
22​
$ 4,000,000Bridge should have been skippedNo
CarterSigned an 11 year deal after this one$ 5,000,000
3​
$ 56,700,000
8.8%​
84​
24​
$ 5,000,000
8.8%​
66​
26​
$ 5,000,000
66​
32​
Signed a deal no longer allowedN/A
MichalekSigned 3 year 4M after this one$ 4,333,333
6​
$ 56,700,000
7.6%​
66​
22​
ELC
60​
27​
$ 4,333,333
57​
24​
$ 4,333,333Best year happened during ELCYes
E. KaneSigned 7 year 7M deal after this one$ 5,250,000
6​
$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
49 (in 56 GP)
29​
$ 7,000,000
8.6%​
57​
20​
ELC
56​
27​
$ 7,000,000Kane's years were after his 2nd contract or ELCMaybe?
SeguinSigned 8 year 9.85M deal after this one$ 5,750,000
6​
$ 64,300,000
8.9%​
84​
22​
$ 5,750,000
8.9%​
77 (in 71 GP)
23​
$ 5,750,000
80​
27​
$ 5,750,000No
WennbergBought out on that deal after year 3$ 4,900,000
6​
$ 75,000,000
6.5%​
59​
22​
ELC40 (in 69 GP)
21​
ELC35 (in 66 GP)
23​
$ 4,900,000Was bought out and best years during ELCYes
PLDSigned 1 year deal at 6M then the 8 year 8.5M deal$ 5,000,000
2​
$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
63 (in 73 GP)
24​
$ 6,000,000
7.3%​
61​
20​
ELC
60​
23​
$ 5,000,000Would have saved on cap hit by committing earlierNo
NecasSigned 2 years at 6.5M after this one$ 3,000,000
2​
$ 82,500,000
3.6%​
71​
24​
$ 3,000,000
3.6%​
46 (in 38 GP)*
26​
$ 6,500,00041 (in 53 GP)
22​
ELCMight regret for next contractNo
B. Tkachuk$ 8,205,714
7​
$ 81,500,000
10.1%​
83​
23​
$ 8,205,714
9.9%​
37 (in 37 GP)
25​
$ 8,205,714
74​
24​
$ 8,205,714Yes
Byfield$ 6,250,000
5​
$ 88,000,000
7.1%​
55​
21​
ELCNot looking good right nowMaybe?
VoracekBridge 1 year 2.25M after ELC, then 8 years at 8.25M after this deal$ 4,250,000
4​
$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
85​
28​
$ 8,250,000
11.0%​
81​
25​
$ 4,250,000
66​
29​
$ 8,250,000Cap Hit could have been lower for big contract if committed earlierNo
AVG
7.4%​
73​
24​
8.2%​


I looked at the 3 best years of the players in this sample and noted the age it occurred, the contract details (was it during a bridge, ELC, etc) to determine if the teams ended up taking the right approach with their respective player and if they ended up rewarding a player for past performance or properly predicting the trajectory of their player and ending up with a semi bargain.

Would a bridge deal have been the best move for the organization? Based on historical data (5 no’s, 3 yes and 2 maybe’s), I would say no it wouldn’t have. Unless they simply went with shorter term but then you potentially run into the risk of not getting s much of a bargain. One can argue the teams who signed Kane, Seguin, Voracek, Horton and Tkachuk would have been better off adding 1-2 extra years.

Looking at the data for the best seasons of the players from this sample. The age is 24 years old where players produce their most productive year. Reminder: Slafkovsky is just 20 years old. The average cap hit % during those most productive years is in the 8.2% range (note ELCs were excluded here).

Part B

What kind of cap hit should be expected if Slafkovsky’s ceiling is a 67-70 points player in his best years and would it provide good value for the team?

The next concern of some folks is whether Slafkovsky will be overpaid for what he brings at his next deal. BY analyzing the cap increases every year from 2006-2007 all the way until the pandemic, there was an average cap increase of 2.4M every season. If we fast forward to Slafkovsky’s season where he’ll be 24 years old (2028-2029) and project the cap to go up by 7.2M, if so Slafkovsky’s cap hit would be 7.63% and would be the equivalent to 7.050M in next year’s cap if converted.

2026-20272027-20282028-20292029-20302030-20312031-2032
$ 94,800,000$ 97,200,000$ 99,600,000$ 102,000,000$ 104,400,000$ 106,800,000
$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000
8.02%​
7.82%​
7.63%​
7.45%​
7.28%​
7.12%​

I think this barometer is a bit arbitrary but I could see Slafkovsky being a player that averages between 67-70 points during his prime. By splitting the last 14 seasons in different segments and adjusting for scoring surge I narrowed down the forwards from 2010-2015 who averaged 60-63 points during that time span. I did the same from 2015-2020 with forwards who averaged between 64 and 66 points during that period. Finally for the 2020-2024 stretched I looked at forwards who averaged between 67 and 70 points during that stretch. That offered me a sample of 45 players. I looked at their cap hit % during each season and excluded those on ELCs.

Name2009-2010Salary CapCap Hit2010-2011Salary CapCap Hit2011-2012Salary CapCap Hit2013-2014Salary CapCap Hit2014-2015Salary Cap 2Cap Hit
Paul Stastny$ 6,600,000$ 56,800,000
11.6%​
$ 6,600,000$ 59,400,000
11.1%​
$ 6,600,000$ 64,300,000
10.3%​
$ 6,600,000$ 64,300,000
10.3%​
$ 7,000,000$ 69,000,000
10.1%​
Patrik Elias$ 6,000,000$ 56,800,000
10.6%​
$ 6,000,000$ 59,400,000
10.1%​
$ 6,000,000$ 64,300,000
9.3%​
$ 5,500,000$ 64,300,000
8.6%​
$ 5,500,000$ 69,000,000
8.0%​
Daniel Alfredsson$ 5,400,000$ 56,800,000
9.5%​
$ 5,400,000$ 59,400,000
9.1%​
$ 5,400,000$ 64,300,000
8.4%​
$ 5,500,000$ 64,300,000
8.6%​
Jason Pominville$ 5,300,000$ 56,800,000
9.3%​
$ 5,300,000$ 59,400,000
8.9%​
$ 5,300,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,300,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,600,000$ 69,000,000
8.1%​
Jeff Carter$ 5,000,000$ 56,800,000
8.8%​
$ 5,000,000$ 59,400,000
8.4%​
$ 5,272,727$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,272,727$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,272,727$ 69,000,000
7.6%​
Patrice Bergeron$ 4,750,000$ 56,800,000
8.4%​
$ 4,750,000$ 59,400,000
8.0%​
$ 5,000,000$ 64,300,000
7.8%​
$ 5,000,000$ 64,300,000
7.8%​
$ 6,875,000$ 69,000,000
10.0%​
Andy McDonald$ 4,700,000$ 56,800,000
8.3%​
$ 4,700,000$ 59,400,000
7.9%​
$ 4,700,000$ 64,300,000
7.3%​
Johan Franzen$ 3,954,545$ 56,800,000
7.0%​
$ 3,954,545$ 59,400,000
6.7%​
$ 3,954,545$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 3,954,545$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 3,954,545$ 69,000,000
5.7%​
David Krejci$ 3,750,000$ 56,800,000
6.6%​
$ 3,750,000$ 59,400,000
6.3%​
$ 3,750,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 5,250,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,250,000$ 69,000,000
7.6%​
Chris Kunitz$ 3,725,000$ 56,800,000
6.6%​
$ 3,725,000$ 59,400,000
6.3%​
$ 3,725,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 3,725,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 3,850,000$ 69,000,000
5.6%​
Ray Whitney$ 3,550,000$ 56,800,000
6.3%​
$ 3,000,000$ 59,400,000
5.1%​
$ 3,000,000$ 64,300,000
4.7%​
$ 4,500,000$ 64,300,000
7.0%​
Alex Steen$ 1,700,000$ 56,800,000
3.0%​
$ 3,362,500$ 59,400,000
5.7%​
$ 3,362,500$ 64,300,000
5.2%​
$ 3,362,500$ 64,300,000
5.2%​
$ 5,800,000$ 69,000,000
8.4%​
Loui Eriksson$ 1,600,000$ 56,800,000
2.8%​
$ 4,250,000$ 59,400,000
7.2%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 69,000,000
6.2%​
Matt DucheneELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 3,500,000$ 64,300,000
5.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Jakub VoracekELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000$ 2,250,000$ 64,300,000
3.5%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 69,000,000
6.2%​
Bobby RyanELC$ 56,800,000$ 5,100,000$ 59,400,000
8.6%​
$ 5,100,000$ 64,300,000
7.9%​
$ 5,100,000$ 64,300,000
7.9%​
$ 5,100,000$ 69,000,000
7.4%​
Max PaciorettyELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000$ 1,625,000$ 64,300,000
2.5%​
$ 4,500,000$ 64,300,000
7.0%​
$ 4,500,000$ 69,000,000
6.5%​
Logan CoutureELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 2,875,000$ 64,300,000
4.5%​
$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Jaromir Jagr$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 3,300,000$ 64,300,000
5.1%​
$ 4,000,000$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 5,500,000$ 69,000,000
8.0%​
RNH$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Vladimir Tarasenko$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 64,300,000ELC$ 64,300,000ELC$ 69,000,000
AVG$ 4,309,965
7.6%​
$ 4,635,146
7.8%​
$ 4,269,987
6.6%​
$ 4,579,987
7.1%​
$ 5,335,428
7.7%​
Name2015-2016Salary CapCap Hit2016-2017Salary CapCap Hit2017-2018Salary CapCap Hit2018-2019Salary CapCap Hit2019-2020Salary CapCap Hit
David Krejci$ 7,250,000$ 71,400,000
10.2%​
$ 7,250,000$ 73,000,000
9.9%​
$ 7,250,000$ 75,000,000
9.7%​
$ 7,250,000$ 79,500,000
9.1%​
$ 7,250,000$ 81,500,000
8.9%​
Joe Pavelski$ 6,000,000$ 71,400,000
8.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 73,000,000
8.2%​
$ 6,000,000$ 75,000,000
8.0%​
$ 6,000,000$ 79,500,000
7.5%​
$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
Brayden Schenn$ 2,500,000$ 71,400,000
3.5%​
$ 5,125,000$ 73,000,000
7.0%​
$ 5,125,000$ 75,000,000
6.8%​
$ 5,125,000$ 79,500,000
6.4%​
$ 5,125,000$ 81,500,000
6.3%​
Mike Hoffman$ 2,000,000$ 71,400,000
2.8%​
$ 5,187,500$ 73,000,000
7.1%​
$ 5,187,500$ 75,000,000
6.9%​
$ 5,187,500$ 79,500,000
6.5%​
$ 5,187,500$ 81,500,000
6.4%​
Sean Couturier$ 1,750,000$ 71,400,000
2.5%​
$ 4,333,333$ 73,000,000
5.9%​
$ 4,333,333$ 75,000,000
5.8%​
$ 4,333,333$ 79,500,000
5.5%​
$ 4,333,333$ 81,500,000
5.3%​
Filip ForsbergELC$ 71,400,000$ 6,000,000$ 73,000,000
8.2%​
$ 6,000,000$ 75,000,000
8.0%​
$ 6,000,000$ 79,500,000
7.5%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
AVG$ 3,900,000
5.5%​
$ 5,649,306
7.7%​
$ 5,649,306
7.5%​
$ 5,649,306
7.1%​
$ 5,815,972
7.1%​
Name2020-2021Salary CapCap Hit2021-2022Salary CapCap Hit2022-2023Salary CapCap Hit2023-2024Salary CapCap Hit
Duchene$ 8,000,000$ 81,500,000
9.8%​
$ 8,000,000$ 81,500,000
9.8%​
$ 8,000,000$ 82,500,000
9.7%​
$ 8,000,000$ 83,500,000
9.6%​
Tarasenko$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 7,500,000$ 82,500,000
9.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 83,500,000
6.0%​
Pacioretty$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
$ 7,000,000$ 82,500,000
8.5%​
$ 4,000,000$ 83,500,000
4.8%​
Bergeron$ 6,875,000$ 81,500,000
8.4%​
$ 6,875,000$ 81,500,000
8.4%​
$ 5,000,000$ 82,500,000
6.1%​
$ 83,500,000
Laine$ 6,750,000$ 81,500,000
8.3%​
$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 8,700,000$ 82,500,000
10.5%​
$ 8,700,000$ 83,500,000
10.4%​
Kreider$ 6,500,000$ 81,500,000
8.0%​
$ 6,500,000$ 81,500,000
8.0%​
$ 6,500,000$ 82,500,000
7.9%​
$ 6,500,000$ 83,500,000
7.8%​
Nelson$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 6,000,000$ 83,500,000
7.2%​
Meier$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 8,800,000$ 83,500,000
10.5%​
Ehlers$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 6,000,000$ 83,500,000
7.2%​
Schmaltz$ 5,850,000$ 81,500,000
7.2%​
$ 5,850,000$ 81,500,000
7.2%​
$ 5,850,000$ 82,500,000
7.1%​
$ 5,850,000$ 83,500,000
7.0%​
Konecny$ 5,500,000$ 81,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 81,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 82,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 83,500,000
6.6%​
Marchessault$ 5,000,000$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 82,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 83,500,000
6.0%​
Lindholm$ 4,850,000$ 81,500,000
6.0%​
$ 4,850,000$ 81,500,000
6.0%​
$ 4,850,000$ 82,500,000
5.9%​
$ 4,850,000$ 83,500,000
5.8%​
Tuch$ 4,750,000$ 81,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 81,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 82,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 83,500,000
5.7%​
Verhaeghe$ 1,000,000$ 81,500,000
1.2%​
$ 1,000,000$ 81,500,000
1.2%​
$ 4,166,667$ 82,500,000
5.1%​
$ 4,166,667$ 83,500,000
5.0%​
SuzukiELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 81,500,000$ 7,875,000$ 82,500,000
9.5%​
$ 7,875,000$ 83,500,000
9.4%​
BoldyELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 82,500,000$ 7,000,000$ 83,500,000
8.4%​
SvechnikovELC$ 81,500,000$ 7,750,000$ 81,500,000
9.5%​
$ 7,750,000$ 82,500,000
9.4%​
$ 7,750,000$ 83,500,000
9.3%​
AVG$ 5,838,333
7.2%​
$ 6,004,688
7.4%​
$ 6,261,275
7.6%​
$ 6,220,098
7.4%​


For the most part, the players have a more favorable cap hit % than Slafkovsky’s projected 7.6% (keep in mind that number would keep going down as years go by; 3 seasons later we could be looking at 7.12%). The average during those 14 seasons was a cap hit of 7.2% for that kind of productivity. There were 3 seasons where 7.6% would have offered better value during that season, 1 where it was even and 10 where it would have been worse value.

Note: I used a very conservative approach for this, based on previous reports by Elliott Friedman, we could be looking a massive jump for salary cap in upcoming years with the expansions.

Part C

Will Slafkovsky’s cap hit be a nuisance to the team if he tops out as that kind of player?

I looked at the roster of the Stanley Cup winners since 2012 (that’s as far as the resource I used could go). Again I will be basing myself off Slafkovsky’s project 7.63% where he’ll be 24 years old which could be a realistic target for our stanley cup window to open up.


Season2011-2012Cap Hit2012-2013Cap Hit2013-2014Cap Hit2014-2015Cap Hit2015-2016Cap Hit2016-2017Cap Hit2017-2018Cap Hit2018-2019Cap Hit2019-2020Cap Hit2020-2021Cap Hit2021-2022Cap Hit2022-2023Cap Hit2023-2024Cap Hit
WinnerLAKCHILAKCHIPITPITWSHSTLTBTBCOLVGKFLA
Highest paid playersDoughty
10.89%​
Kane
8.97%​
Gaborik
11.66%​
Kane
9.13%​
Malkin
13.31%​
Malkin
13.01%​
Ovechkin
12.72%​
Tarasenko
9.43%​
Kucherov
11.60%​
Vasilevskiy
11.60%​
Rantanen
11.30%​
Eichel
12.12%​
Bobrovsky
11.98%​
Kopitar
10.58%​
Toews
8.97%​
Doughty
10.89%​
Toews
9.13%​
Crosby
12.18%​
Crosby
11.92%​
Kuznetsov
10.40%​
ROR
9.43%​
Stamkos
10.40%​
Kucherov
11.60%​
Makar
11.04%​
Pietrangelo
10.67%​
Barkov
11.98%​
SlafRichards
8.94%​
Sharp
8.40%​
Kopitar
10.58%​
Crawford
8.70%​
Letang
10.15%​
Letang
9.93%​
Backstrom
8.93%​
Pietrangelo
8.18%​
Hedman
9.66%​
Stamkos
10.40%​
Landeskog
8.59%​
Tkachuk
11.38%​
7.63%​
Carter
8.20%​
Seabrook
8.26%​
Quick
9.02%​
Sharp
8.55%​
Kessel
9.52%​
Kessel
9.32%​
Holtby
8.13%​
McDonagh
8.28%​
Hedman
9.66%​
MacKinnon
7.73%​
Ekblad
8.98%​
Keith
7.89%​
Richards
8.94%​
Seabrook
8.41%​
Fleury
8.05%​
Fleury
7.88%​
Niskanen
7.67%​
Point
8.28%​
McDonagh
8.28%​
Reinhart
7.78%​
Hossa7.70%Carter
8.20%​
Keith
8.03%​
Oshie
7.67%​
Point
8.28%​
Hossa
7.64%​
Rank
5​
7​
7​
8​
6​
6​
7​
4​
6​
7​
4​
3​
6​
AVG
5.85​

On average, with that cap hit, Slafkovsky would be the 5.85th (round up to 6th) highest paid player on a SC winning team. That is very encouraging because in my opinion, I think the team won’t be in trouble if Slafkovsky is the team’s 4th or 5th best player on the team. The fact that the rest of the core is locked up at a bargain price is even more reason to be optimistic about the future of this team.


Hope you enjoyed this read!
Thanks for great analysis, that % of cap comparison is very interesting piece. I am not worried at all about Slaf. He is not playing very well nowadays but still has 6 points in last 10 games, that is 49 pts pace. He created couple high scoring chances for Caufield last game as well.
I think 60-70 pts is his floor for the prime and even if he does stay so low with his production, I expect his value for the team would be increased by playing PP1 net front and PK. His contract will be a bargain in late half of it.
 
Last edited:

Naslundforever

43-67-110
Aug 21, 2015
4,480
5,337
Yes, I instantly laugh at fans who question the hockey IQ of one the teams best passers. It is not easy to "see" some of the passing lanes that Slaf sees, let alone make those passes (which he consistently does).

A player lacking hockey IQ would not be able to either. Trying to problematize this aspect of his game screams 1. agenda 2. lack of understanding of the game 3. both.

He's a big dude who is learning to incorporate a grinding aspect to his game at the highest level of competition. He's going to eat a number of hits as many young players do. Guhle still gets wrecked frequently. It's all part of the processes of learning how to use your body.

And it's normal, bigger players don't have to learn this aspect of the game when they play against their age peers. It's why smaller players usually are more developed at picking their spots because they had to be mindful of this their whole careers.

it's like most of you don't watch hockey outside the habs.
You’re insulting posters and it’s not helping your arguments. Having great hand eye coordination and reflexes does not equate anticipation nor good positioning, etc. It does make some highlight reel moments.

He gets smashed and caught from behind because he does not read the play well. Get over yourself as they say.

He can get better and will, he’s a kid and has insane tools.

One more thing for the people saying he's soft:
He's 104th in the league among players for hits per 60 for players with more than 11 GP this year. He's also been engaged in net front battles and board battles so let's not pretend like he's avoiding contact
He goes to the wall like a machine but you can tell big D just man handle him, and sometimes even target him.
 

Andy

Registered User
Jun 26, 2008
32,488
18,039
Montreal
You’re insulting posters and it’s not helping your arguments. Having great hand eye coordination and reflexes does not equate anticipation nor good positioning, etc. It does make some highlight reel moments.

He gets smashed and caught from behind because he does not the play well. Get over yourself as they say.

He can get better and will, he’s a kid and has insane tools.
Sounds like you are taking this too personally.
 

ReHabs

Registered User
Sponsor
Jan 18, 2022
8,779
13,224
His age is literally the most relevant thing lol.
Relevant to what? What is it you think I’m saying?

Well , that's why nobody want to argue with you on the topic. Can't have a conversation if it's not a two way street here man. Saying size and weight and age is irrelevant to a teenager coming in the NHL is just nonsense
He’s not a teenager and he’s not coming in the NHL. It’s his third NHL season, he’s signed a 56m contract extension that kicks into action in six months.

I want to talk about his performance today, and what could be the source of the malaise. Why did MSL bench him?
 

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