Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[CanadienShark]

I can't wait to see Slafkovsky beat Matthews to 70 goals.

 

[admiralcadillac]

What's cool about metrics is that they exist and you can revisit them to see that he was, it's kinda like... a written record!

Yeah metrics tend to indicate bad teams play poorly and players on bad teams play poorly, that doesn’t say a ton about any individual player.

 

[Hannibal]

Slaf, you freaking beast.

What a season and what a player he’s becoming.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Previous 1st OA picks in their second seasons as 19 year olds:

- Hischier: 47 pts (17G, 30A) in 69 GP (a pace of 56 pts (20G, 36A) in 82 GP)
- Hughes: 31 pts (11G, 20A) in 56 GP (a pace of 45 pts (16G, 29A) in 82 GP)
- Lafrenière: 31 pts (19G, 12A) in 79 GP (a pace of 32 pts (19G, 13A) in 82 GP)

- Slafkovsky: 50 pts (20G, 30A) in 82 GP

Hischier hit the 50-point mark in his rookie year and was or on pace of a 50+ point season every season until he hit 60+ pts 5 seasons into his career.
Hughes hit the 50-point mark in his third season. His rookie and sophomore seasons, he was on pace for less than 50 pts.
Lafrenière hit the 50-point mark in his 4th season.

Aside from Hischier, who was already a 50+ point (or pace) player, the three 1st OA picks at forward before Slaf was selected, Slaf out-produced in his second season as a 19 year old. And more to his production, he does bring another element to his game that the others don't necessarily, or at the very least didn't in their second seasons.

 

[Tabarouette]

Yeah metrics tend to indicate bad teams play poorly and players on bad teams play poorly, that doesn’t say a ton about any individual player.

Carey Price sends his regards

 

[HuGort]

Slafkovsky 37 points in the final 46 games

 

[Jaaanosik]

Previous 1st OA picks in their second seasons as 19 year olds:

- Hischier: 47 pts (17G, 30A) in 69 GP (a pace of 56 pts (20G, 36A) in 82 GP)
- Hughes: 31 pts (11G, 20A) in 56 GP (a pace of 45 pts (16G, 29A) in 82 GP)
- Lafrenière: 31 pts (19G, 12A) in 79 GP (a pace of 32 pts (19G, 13A) in 82 GP)

- Slafkovsky: 50 pts (20G, 30A) in 82 GP

Hischier hit the 50-point mark in his rookie year and was or on pace of a 50+ point season every season until he hit 60+ pts 5 seasons into his career.
Hughes hit the 50-point mark in his third season. His rookie and sophomore seasons, he was on pace for less than 50 pts.
Lafrenière hit the 50-point mark in his 4th season.

Aside from Hischier, who was already a 50+ point (or pace) player, the three 1st OA picks at forward before Slaf was selected, Slaf out-produced in his second season as a 19 year old. And more to his production, he does bring another element to his game that the others don't necessarily, or at the very least didn't in their second seasons.

The comparisons show Slaf is not a bust and it is not going to predict his future.
Having said that I would not be surprised at all if Slaf would become PPG player based on the second half of the season performance the next year.
Switching from parabolic growth to hyperbolic growth along the way.

 

[Canadiens98]

If we were to try and extend him this summer, what would that contract look like? Have to think his agent will also be projecting that Slaf could put up 60-70 points next year..

Would he get a similar contract to Cole/Suzuki if we gave him 8 years? If he signed a bridge, could it be similar to what we gave Drouin? 6x6? or 6mil x 5?

Does it make more sense to wait and see how next season goes?


I find it's difficult to predict the range in which that next contract will look like

 

[morhilane]

Slafkovsky 37 points in the final 46 games

0.80 point pace.
I wonder if that qualify him for the 0.73 point per game with a min of 42 games performance bonus.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Previous 1st OA picks in their second seasons as 19 year olds:

- Hischier: 47 pts (17G, 30A) in 69 GP (a pace of 56 pts (20G, 36A) in 82 GP)
- Hughes: 31 pts (11G, 20A) in 56 GP (a pace of 45 pts (16G, 29A) in 82 GP)
- Lafrenière: 31 pts (19G, 12A) in 79 GP (a pace of 32 pts (19G, 13A) in 82 GP)

- Slafkovsky: 50 pts (20G, 30A) in 82 GP

Hischier hit the 50-point mark in his rookie year and was or on pace of a 50+ point season every season until he hit 60+ pts 5 seasons into his career.
Hughes hit the 50-point mark in his third season. His rookie and sophomore seasons, he was on pace for less than 50 pts.
Lafrenière hit the 50-point mark in his 4th season.

Aside from Hischier, who was already a 50+ point (or pace) player, the three 1st OA picks at forward before Slaf was selected, Slaf out-produced in his second season as a 19 year old. And more to his production, he does bring another element to his game that the others don't necessarily, or at the very least didn't in their second seasons.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the number of active NHL players who had a more productive teenage season than Slaf (P/GP):

-Crosby
-McDavid
-Bedard
-Laine
-Skinner
-MacKinnon
-RNH
-Duchene
-Hischier
-Gagner
-Stamkos
-Svechnikov
-P. Kane
-Matthews
-Seguin
-Keller
-Marner
-Stutzle
-Eichel
-Dahlin
-Tavares
-Hall
-Huberdeau
-Both Tkachuk brothers

 

[Egresch]

Out of curiosity, I looked up the number of active NHL players who had a more productive teenage season than Slaf (P/GP):

-Crosby
-McDavid
-Bedard
-Laine
-Skinner
-MacKinnon
-RNH
-Duchene
-Hischier
-Gagner
-Stamkos
-Svechnikov
-P. Kane
-Matthews
-Seguin
-Keller
-Marner
-Stutzle
-Eichel
-Dahlin
-Tavares
-Hall
-Huberdeau
-Both Tkachuk brothers

Good company

 

[Captain Mountain]

Good company

Yeah, I think over the last 5 seasons only Bedard, Svechnikov, Dahlin and Raymond have had better teenage seasons.

He still has a lot to work on, but he could be special if he puts it all together.

 

[HuGort]

Have Slaf for full season next year. His first half this season was not good. Big help to team.

Plus Dach, who was our best player in camp and first 4 periods of season. Hutson has cemented a spot. He's an electric player.

Makes 3 additions to team which led league with 41 one goal games. Our young defense is maturing. We also suppose to add a top 6 goal scorer this summer.

Things are looking up. Bring on May 8th and draft lottery.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Slafkovsky 37 points in the final 46 games

66-point pace.

 

[Tyson]

66-point pace.

When Hughes can put together another productive line then I expect Slaf will become truly elite. His size, vision, skill and determination will make him like Nick Suzuki said...a top 5 winger in the league.

 

[HuGort]

66-point pace.

I think that's about what Slaf will score next season. Usually there is a sideways movement before his play spikes again

 

[Kojo]

idk man maybe it's your interpretation of what was being written, that's moping

for a minute there the only comparable we had to the level of play he was bringing was Yakupov, and so it was stated as such.
I know 417 thinks Slaf was literally never bad but that's just not true sadly. When he was bad, he was being called bad pretty fairly.

The other side of that conversation is that some people can't take any criticism on the beautiful, untouchable babies we draft while others like me are much harsher for what I consider to be pretty valid reasons, i'm pretty f***ing tired of suffering through wasted 1st picks and being told that i'm just not patient enough with dogshit players playing like dogshit, i.e: KK

After the all-star break it became a completely different story, the guy did a full 180 and i'm glad he did and i'm on board now, but i'm never gonna buy this revisionist "he showed all the signs" bs

If he was so bad then why did Suzuki want to play with him?

 

[Sorinth]

If we were to try and extend him this summer, what would that contract look like? Have to think his agent will also be projecting that Slaf could put up 60-70 points next year..

Would he get a similar contract to Cole/Suzuki if we gave him 8 years? If he signed a bridge, could it be similar to what we gave Drouin? 6x6? or 6mil x 5?

Does it make more sense to wait and see how next season goes?


I find it's difficult to predict the range in which that next contract will look like

6 years isn't a bridge deal. Bridge deals end while the player is still RFA, which in his case I believe would mean a max of 3 years. Also bridge deals are meant to give the sides time to see what the player can really bring to the team, so signing one a year early seems like a weird thing to do.

I think if you want to sign him this summer it would have to be in the range of Caufield/Suzuki.

 

[Zorro]

I think the Slaf camp will look to sign an extension this summer but i wouldn't be surprised if the Habs chose to wait until next summer. They did it with Cole when his first season consisted of only 10 games + POs. I think the habs will want to see some consistency in Slaf and if he can at least replicate this season.

The $ isn't the issue because with Suzuki being almost a PPG this season it will be hard for Slaf to ask for more than that. That is unless he completely blows his lid off next season and posts a 90+ point season.

 

[FrankMTL]

The comparisons show Slaf is not a bust and it is not going to predict his future.
Having said that I would not be surprised at all if Slaf would become PPG player based on the second half of the season performance the next year.
Switching from parabolic growth to hyperbolic growth along the way.

 

[Bombshell11]

I think the Slaf camp will look to sign an extension this summer but i wouldn't be surprised if the Habs chose to wait until next summer. They did it with Cole when his first season consisted of only 10 games + POs. I think the habs will want to see some consistency in Slaf and if he can at least replicate this season.

The $ isn't the issue because with Suzuki being almost a PPG this season it will be hard for Slaf to ask for more than that. That is unless he completely blows his lid off next season and posts a 90+ point season.

they need to stop handing out big money like this to young players, we'll run out of cap space reall quick

 

[Zorro]

they need to stop handing out big money like this to young players, we'll run out of cap space reall quick

It needs to be a calculated risk. If we consider the player to be a cornerstone of the franchise and is trending as such then i have no issues handing out a big contract. I rather the team pay for his current/future accomplishments then past ones.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

So what are we doing here boys , we giving the kid 8x8? i figure they will wait until next year

 

[MarioLeMoose]

they need to stop handing out big money like this to young players, we'll run out of cap space reall quick

Young players like this are exactly who we need to be spending our cap space on

 

[Egresch]

they need to stop handing out big money like this to young players, we'll run out of cap space reall quick

Among guys between 7-8M AAV, Suzuki 6th in production. Caufield is 15th. 37 total players are in that range, 14 of them are 30+ years old.
On the other hand, among players below 7,9M AAV, Suzuki is 11th and Caufield is 41st. I would feel much better if Caufield was @ 6,5M like Brandon Hagel