The Silver Plan: A Draft Lottery Alternative

[Summer Rose]

The only fans who "cheer for losses" are wierdo obsessives. They're a rounding error.

Besides, who cares what some tiny subset of fans do? If I want to cheer for own goals, that's my business.

I am counted among that group of fans who occasionally cheers for losses when suitable. The "tank bowl" between Arizona and Buffalo during the 2014-15 season, leading up to the McEichel draft, was the epitome of it, where I booed every Coyotes goal and cheered when Buffalo scored. That game was also amusing on a side note, because I brought my roommate and his fiancée to the game. It was the latter's first NHL game, since she's from Kazakhstan (born there when it was part of the Soviet Union). She started yelling at the players in Russian, and I think the fans surrounding us were pretty confused.

Unfortunately (for me at least), the Coyotes won that game.

 

[islandersbob]

@islandersbob Have you guys considered what it would be like to be a fan of a bottom feeding team under a flat odds draft lottery? What would even be the point? What is there to look forward to?

A) This system, such as it is, benefits and hurts both middling and worst teams, but the worst teams overwhelmingly still end up at the bottom of the draft.
B) The benefit is fan engagement. If the results of this system match the results of a straight worst-to-best draft, then great! That's not the point. The point is that it gives fans of every team in the league something to cheer for (besides hoping their team loses) at the end of the season.

What do fans of teams that constantly draft near the top have to look forward to? It sure enough isn't hockey games. There are far too many ownership groups that would rather win at pingpong lottery than spend to try to win actual hockey games. Get rid of cheapskate owners and up the competitivity of all teams. Cheapa** owners don't need to be rewarded for being cheapa**es. An owner is going to skimp on payroll, on facilities, on everything, fine, but enjoy the #16 overall draft pick, don't like it, sell the team.

You probably don't want to hear my plan to make sure that fans have something to cheer for most season.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Death, taxes, and HF members coming up with ever more convoluted ways to not give the worst teams the highest draft picks.

I’m not reading all that.

Thread ended after the first reply, lol.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

A) Can you explain what you mean here before I respond?
B) As I've explained over and over in this thread, the current system gives fans a reason to cheer for losses for 82 games. Ideally, it would be zero, but I'm not aware of a realistic system that achieve that. 62 would certainly be better than 82, and even fans of bottom feeder teams tend to wait until later in the season to start cheering for wins, since you never know (see: Columbus this season). Also, you're not considering the teams like Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Utah right now who have just recently fallen out of the race, so only now are their fans starting to cheer for losses.

Any system which doesn't give the worst team the best pick is taking some amount of draft value from that team and giving it to teams which finished with better records.

 

[qcal1427]

Nashville is just more or less lucky that circumstances in the NHL (which I've pretty consistently pointed out on the Hawks board) are that there were really only 2 teams that were "tanking" this year in San Jose and Chicago (and even both of those were hoping to be better than the prior year). Basically every other team was a playoff team hoping to hang on with a core that's been successful previously, a team that's been rebuilding for a while that were hoping to come out of it, or teams kinda doing a halfway approach of at least half-heartedly trying to get into the playoffs but not pushing all in. Nobody blew up their team at the last trade deadline or during the offseason. Third to last in the entire NHL was basically guaranteed to be a bit of an "accidental tank" and yeah, someone who spent a bunch in Nashville ended up being that team.

I suspect next season will be a lot deeper of a field of "tanking" teams.

I honestly don't think there will be a single team next year going into the season trying to tank. SJS and Chicago will be bad again because they're so far behind but just like this summer they will make real attempts to be significantly better even if they ultimately fail. Anaheim is one or two years ahead of those two. Calgary/Philly/NYI/Seattle/CBJ will never tank no matter how much people want them to. Trotz and Nashville won't admit their mistakes and most likely will double down. Every single Atlantic team is trying to make the playoffs. Vancouver/NYR/Utah will all think that they should have a playoff spot and this was just a down year. Literally the only team I can see possibly tanking -- purposefully weakening the roster in order to lose more games -- is Pittsburgh and they've already been doing that for two years now and still can't be that bad because Crosby will carry them.

 

[MarkT]

The only fans who "cheer for losses" are wierdo obsessives. They're a rounding error.

Besides, who cares what some tiny subset of fans do? If I want to cheer for own goals, that's my business.

This may be true, but at the same point when the weirdo fans start to cheer for losses, a lot of normal fans check out. If you look at the engagement and attendance around any team as it firmly drops out of playoff contention, you'll see what I mean.

Thread ended after the first reply, lol.

What a weird comment to make after 7 pages of interesting discussion, especially in relation to a comment that got such a basic fact wrong.

Any system which doesn't give the worst team the best pick is taking some amount of draft value from that team and giving it to teams which finished with better records.

Ah, I get you. Honestly a straight draft with no lottery isn't a terrible option, but personally I would prefer something like my option - I think some lost draft value is a fair price to pay for increased engagement from fans, owner, media, players, etc..

 

[Cas]

This may be true, but at the same point when the weirdo fans start to cheer for losses, a lot of normal fans check out. If you look at the engagement and attendance around any team as it firmly drops out of playoff contention, you'll see what I mean.

Normal fans check out because their team sucks. They don't check out because of the sort of people who still post on internet forums.

You can look at any sport, regardless of how they assign amateur talent - bad teams tend to have poor attendance, because people aren't excited to go see bad teams.

 

[MarkT]

Normal fans check out because their team sucks. They don't check out because of the sort of people who still post on internet forums.

You can look at any sport, regardless of how they assign amateur talent - bad teams tend to have poor attendance, because people aren't excited to go see bad teams.

Two questions for you:
1) If people cheer for a bad team, are they more or less likely to attend/watch/read articles about a game if they know that the team winning that game is likely to give the team a better draft pick?

2) How would you account for teams that are actually quite good, but due to an unlucky/poor stretch of games, possible caused by injury, are going to miss the playoffs. Fans check out on teams like that too, even if that team starts to win again. I'd argue they check out more because the games are pointless, than because the team is bad.

To follow up on that idea, what if it's a bad team but they somehow keep winning? Wouldn't that drive a lot of fan engagement?

Also, show me a sport that has a system where wins lead to better draft picks. I'm not aware of any sport that has a system like the one I'm proposing. If every sport assigns amateur talent based on which teams lose the most games, you can't really use any of them to prove your point. If you can show me a league where teams can win games to earn better amateur talent, and show that in that situation bad teams still get low engagement, then I might agree with your argument.

Finally, I recall that you're the one who doesn't care if fans cheer for their team to lose, so I'm not sure there's any way of convincing you. If you don't think it matters then I doubt I'd ever be able to convince you of any idea that aims to have fewer fans cheering for losses.

 

[Patty Ice]

I don't usually post in the main forums

That was your first mistake. This is a hive of scum and villainy.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Two questions for you:
1) If people cheer for a bad team, are they more or less likely to attend/watch/read articles about a game if they know that the team winning that game is likely to give the team a better draft pick?

2) How would you account for teams that are actually quite good, but due to an unlucky/poor stretch of games, possible caused by injury, are going to miss the playoffs. Fans check out on teams like that too, even if that team starts to win again. I'd argue they check out more because the games are pointless, than because the team is bad.

To follow up on that idea, what if it's a bad team but they somehow keep winning? Wouldn't that drive a lot of fan engagement?

Also, show me a sport that has a system where wins lead to better draft picks. I'm not aware of any sport that has a system like the one I'm proposing. If every sport assigns amateur talent based on which teams lose the most games, you can't really use any of them to prove your point. If you can show me a league where teams can win games to earn better amateur talent, and show that in that situation bad teams still get low engagement, then I might agree with your argument.

Finally, I recall that you're the one who doesn't care if fans cheer for their team to lose, so I'm not sure there's any way of convincing you. If you don't think it matters then I doubt I'd ever be able to convince you of any idea that aims to have fewer fans cheering for losses.

You haven’t really converted many to the idea, mostly because it’s not good.
Poor teams dump their UFA’s for draft picks at the TDL, they are not going to hang on to them for a silver ribbon.

 

[Cas]

Two questions for you:
1) If people cheer for a bad team, are they more or less likely to attend/watch/read articles about a game if they know that the team winning that game is likely to give the team a better draft pick?

2) How would you account for teams that are actually quite good, but due to an unlucky/poor stretch of games, possible caused by injury, are going to miss the playoffs. Fans check out on teams like that too, even if that team starts to win again. I'd argue they check out more because the games are pointless, than because the team is bad.

To follow up on that idea, what if it's a bad team but they somehow keep winning? Wouldn't that drive a lot of fan engagement?

Also, show me a sport that has a system where wins lead to better draft picks. I'm not aware of any sport that has a system like the one I'm proposing. If every sport assigns amateur talent based on which teams lose the most games, you can't really use any of them to prove your point. If you can show me a league where teams can win games to earn better amateur talent, and show that in that situation bad teams still get low engagement, then I might agree with your argument.

Finally, I recall that you're the one who doesn't care if fans cheer for their team to lose, so I'm not sure there's any way of convincing you. If you don't think it matters then I doubt I'd ever be able to convince you of any idea that aims to have fewer fans cheering for losses.

I don't think most fans care about or even know about the draft (perhaps beyond the fact that there is one). A complicated scheme to assign the order of the draft is not going to move the needle when the problem is that the team is bad.

Fans also don't care about the nuances of why a team is missing or making the playoffs. If you make it, you're good. If you miss it, you're bad. Most fans aren't going to go much deeper than that.

The correlation between team performace and attendence has been true forever - long, long before there was even a draft. Fans don't care about schemes developed to assign amateur talent.

 

[westc2]

There are clearly teams out there who are giving up all short-term success in order to build overpowered future teams by stockpiling high draft picks, while other teams try to stay competitive because their franchise would lose too much money by being a basement dweller team, and so they miss out on top draft picks year after year.

I think if they keep the current system, they need to put more restrictions on consecutive year's picks. Something like...a team can't have a top 5 draft pick two years in a row. The current system isn't enough.

My point is....tanking for 1 season isn't that bad...but teams tanking multiple seasons in a row is horrible for the league, and they haven't done enough to prevent it.

 

[MarkT]

You haven’t really converted many to the idea, mostly because it’s not good.
Poor teams dump their UFA’s for draft picks at the TDL, they are not going to hang on to them for a silver ribbon.

It really seems to me like most of the people not converted to the idea fall into one of two camps:
1) They didn't bother to read the original post because it was too long (lol), or.
2) They read parts of it and completely misunderstood the idea

That's obviously not everyone, but the majority of my time spent in this thread has been correcting people's misconceptions about the idea - I mean how many people have assumed it's about preventing bad teams from getting high draft picks, or preventing tanking, when it is definitively neither of those.

I don't know which of the two camps you fall in, but it's one of them, because I have no idea why you think "Poor teams dump their UFA’s for draft picks at the TDL, they are not going to hang on to them for a silver ribbon." is some kind of argument against my idea. Under my system with the rare exception of a generation talent draft year, I would expect teams to dump UFAs as normal and hope that whoever is still left can compete. In fact, your statement that teams are not going to hang on the UFAs under my system is a counter argument to the most common genuine critique I've had of the idea, which is that it would somehow kill the trade deadline. So thanks for defending the idea, buddy.

I don't think most fans care about or even know about the draft (perhaps beyond the fact that there is one). A complicated scheme to assign the order of the draft is not going to move the needle when the problem is that the team is bad.

Fans also don't care about the nuances of why a team is missing or making the playoffs. If you make it, you're good. If you miss it, you're bad. Most fans aren't going to go much deeper than that.

The correlation between team performace and attendence has been true forever - long, long before there was even a draft. Fans don't care about schemes developed to assign amateur talent.

Okay, so I think we'll need to just agree to disagree, because we seem to be living in two completely different realities. In yours, fans don't pay attention to things like the draft or draft positioning, and in mine they do. I have no way of proving my world to you and you have no way of proving yours to me, so let's just shake hands and move on, shall we?

 

[Golden_Jet]

It really seems to me like most of the people not converted to the idea fall into one of two camps:
1) They didn't bother to read the original post because it was too long (lol), or.
2) They read parts of it and completely misunderstood the idea

You left out the main camp, most of us are in.
3) read it all, understand it all
But still a bad proposal, that will never fly.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Stopped reading "at game".

For me there is no solution that will make everyone happy.

What I would like to see is ALL LOTTO teams have one ball in the machine and the draft order is based upon the reverse order they come out.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Stopped reading "at game".

For me there is no solution that will make everyone happy.

What I would like to see is ALL LOTTO teams have one ball in the machine and the draft order is based upon the reverse order they come out.

An oilers fan asking for better lottery odds is kinda funny.

 

[Rejavanated]

It really seems to me like most of the people not converted to the idea fall into one of two camps:
1) They didn't bother to read the original post because it was too long (lol), or.
2) They read parts of it and completely misunderstood the idea

That's obviously not everyone, but the majority of my time spent in this thread has been correcting people's misconceptions about the idea - I mean how many people have assumed it's about preventing bad teams from getting high draft picks, or preventing tanking, when it is definitively neither of those.

I don't know which of the two camps you fall in, but it's one of them, because I have no idea why you think "Poor teams dump their UFA’s for draft picks at the TDL, they are not going to hang on to them for a silver ribbon." is some kind of argument against my idea. Under my system with the rare exception of a generation talent draft year, I would expect teams to dump UFAs as normal and hope that whoever is still left can compete. In fact, your statement that teams are not going to hang on the UFAs under my system is a counter argument to the most common genuine critique I've had of the idea, which is that it would somehow kill the trade deadline. So thanks for defending the idea, buddy.

Okay, so I think we'll need to just agree to disagree, because we seem to be living in two completely different realities. In yours, fans don't pay attention to things like the draft or draft positioning, and in mine they do. I have no way of proving my world to you and you have no way of proving yours to me, so let's just shake hands and move on, shall we?

Have you considered the possibility that there's a third camp?

3) They disagree with the foundational premise of your plan

You said in the OP that you dislike that the current draft system because it leads to fans rooting for their favourite team to lose as the season approaches the final quarter. Maybe some of us simply don't see that as a significant flaw of the draft that needs to be addressed.

 

[Jumptheshark]

An oilers fan asking for better lottery odds is kinda funny.

Buffalo fought against all changes. Oilers did not

 

[McShogun99]

It just needs to be reverse order of the standings. It’s like once every 10 years that teams purposely tank for a generational talent and usually it takes them years to rebuild from that.

The negative about teams trying to win to collect silver points is that they might not sell at the deadline which would make for a very boring trade deadline and give less players a chance to play in the playoffs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Buffalo fought against all changes. Oilers did not

I wasn’t referring to the teams, was referring to yourself.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I wasn’t referring to the teams, was referring to yourself.

I really could not careless about changing the lotto. And since you are being a jerkward towards me.

You lack basic reading comprehension of 6 year old.

No one will be happy with any changes better or worse. Someone will find something to complain about

 

[Golden_Jet]

I really could not careless about changing the lotto.

You lack basic reading comprehension of 6 year old.

lol, talking about reading comprehension , pot meet kettle.

What I would like to see is ALL LOTTO teams have one ball in the machine and the draft order is based upon the reverse order they come out.

 

[Giant Panda]

It really seems to me like most of the people not converted to the idea fall into one of two camps:
1) They didn't bother to read the original post because it was too long (lol), or.
2) They read parts of it and completely misunderstood the idea

That's obviously not everyone, but the majority of my time spent in this thread has been correcting people's misconceptions about the idea - I mean how many people have assumed it's about preventing bad teams from getting high draft picks, or preventing tanking, when it is definitively neither of those.

I don't know which of the two camps you fall in, but it's one of them, because I have no idea why you think "Poor teams dump their UFA’s for draft picks at the TDL, they are not going to hang on to them for a silver ribbon." is some kind of argument against my idea. Under my system with the rare exception of a generation talent draft year, I would expect teams to dump UFAs as normal and hope that whoever is still left can compete. In fact, your statement that teams are not going to hang on the UFAs under my system is a counter argument to the most common genuine critique I've had of the idea, which is that it would somehow kill the trade deadline. So thanks for defending the idea, buddy.

Okay, so I think we'll need to just agree to disagree, because we seem to be living in two completely different realities. In yours, fans don't pay attention to things like the draft or draft positioning, and in mine they do. I have no way of proving my world to you and you have no way of proving yours to me, so let's just shake hands and move on, shall we?

Has anyone ever told you that you come across as incredibly defensive?

It's okay that people don't like your idea. It doesn't mean people aren't as smart as you think you are.

People can read your idea and understand it fully and still not like it. It's not an overly complicated idea, it's just one that many people seem to like.

 

[MarkT]

You left out the main camp, most of us are in.
3) read it all, understand it all
But still a bad proposal, that will never fly.

Have you considered the possibility that there's a third camp?

3) They disagree with the foundational premise of your plan

You said in the OP that you dislike that the current draft system because it leads to fans rooting for their favourite team to lose as the season approaches the final quarter. Maybe some of us simply don't see that as a significant flaw of the draft that needs to be addressed.

Has anyone ever told you that you come across as incredibly defensive?

It's okay that people don't like your idea. It doesn't mean people aren't as smart as you think you are.

People can read your idea and understand it fully and still not like it. It's not an overly complicated idea, it's just one that many people seem to like.

I'll quote myself: "That's obviously not everyone". There are plenty of people who read the idea and disagreed for legitimate reasons. One has actually caused me to rethink the 20 games part of it, and I'm still puzzling over how to make that change. But I've read every post in the thread, and I stand by my assertion that the majority who disagree fall into one of those two camps.

@Golden_Jet If you understood it all, please explain your comment about teams at the deadline.

@Rejavanated There have indeed been a few people who have made that point, true. If we had to make a third group that would be it. I think my big mistake from the start of this thread was not even considering that people would be fine with fans cheering for their team to lose - that's a major blind spot for me.

@Giant Panda I agree it's perfectly okay if people don't like the idea - it's not a perfect idea, and I was hoping people would be able to point out legitimate flaws in it. Maybe you could empathise a bit with me sounding defensive if you've seen the sheer number of people claiming this is a stupid/bad/terrible idea and then citing as the reason something that isn't true about the idea. Look at Golden Jet's comment from a few posts ago - the apparent reason it's bad is the exact opposite of the reason several other people have given it's bad.

 

[Rejavanated]

I'll quote myself: "That's obviously not everyone". There are plenty of people who read the idea and disagreed for legitimate reasons. One has actually caused me to rethink the 20 games part of it, and I'm still puzzling over how to make that change. But I've read every post in the thread, and I stand by my assertion that the majority who disagree fall into one of those two camps.

...

@Rejavanated There have indeed been a few people who have made that point, true. If we had to make a third group that would be it. I think my big mistake from the start of this thread was not even considering that people would be fine with fans cheering for their team to lose - that's a major blind spot for me.

...

I think your biggest mistake was assuming from the start that it was okay for you to gate-keep other people's fandom. I genuinely don't understand why you concern yourself with the way other fans decide to support their team.

I don't like your plan because even if it would fix the "problem" you've identified, I just don't see why it's a problem to be concerned with in the first place. Obviously our opinions differ, but that doesn't mean I'm too lazy to read a lengthy post or have reading comprehension issues.

Anyways, I do actually agree with you about removing the random nature of draft positions, but the (by far) simpler solution is to do away with the lottery altogether. Like others have suggested in this thread, I'd much prefer to see rules that prevent teams from getting multiple top 3 picks in a short period of time rather than tinkering with the odds or awarding silver points. My proposal would be to scrap the lottery and then :

- if a team drafts 1OA, they can't draft in the top 3 for the next three drafts
- if a team drafts 2OA, they can't draft in the top 3 for the next two drafts
- if a team drafts 3OA, they can't draft in the top 3 for the next draft

If one of these teams finishes in the bottom 3 again during this period, they drop to 4OA. If more than one finishes in the bottom 3 again, they drop outside the top 3 and then their draft positions are based on their records. The top 3 picks would end up going to teams that haven't had a recent top 3 pick. These conditions would only apply to the first round of the draft.