Salary Cap: The Salary Cap Thread | Trust me... nothing has changed.

[stepdad gaary]

We spotted a clearly inferior team the chance to knock us out in double OT.

Nashville took out Anaheim in 6. Gibson is injury prone. Nashville beat them in 6 missing their #1C. That should say something about their team.

they won dude

 

[Gurglesons]

they won dude

I guess if you want to run under the assumption the better team wins every series that is cool.

 

[Peat]

I think people think Anaheim's better than they are because the division is utter trash. They're super top-heavy (and the top is old) at forward and the goaltending is questionable. Division play throws season point totals out of whack in the Pacific.

The only club in the Central which is definitely garbage (and looks it) is Colorado. In the Pac, Vancouver, Calgary and Arizona are all garbage and the Kings can't score, even against the shoddy goaltending of their division. Between the four of them, they averaged ~75 points. In the Central, I don't think any of them matches Nashville's 94. In the Metro, I don't know that any one of those teams wins enough games to hit that 75 point average.

Nashville aren't?

I dunno. I thought Anaheim were going through until Gibson got injured, but there's not a lot in it. I'd agree the Pacific is a weakass division right now, but we did just get to see the teams go head to head.

For what its worth, I don't see anything too outrageous in saying Preds are more likely to miss the play-offs then return to the finals. The chance of both is pretty slim mind. Still, they're in a really tight division, a few bad injuries and a few other teams running hot and it could happen. Does it? Probably not.

 

[Jenkins]

He's been pretty vocal about not giving up the future for a short term solution. So while he's going to have to give up something, as long as he's not going big game hunting (aka Duchene/RNH), I'm not all that worried about him trading pieces I'd rather him not trade (Guentzel, Sheary, Sprong, Rust).



Word was, that's what Colorado was looking for - in addition to Maatta I believe. But I don't think that Rutherford had actually offered 2 of those players (Guentzel, Sheary, Sprong).

Yeah I'm not too worried about JR. I think he'll make the right decisions. It's more if I was going to worry about something I'd worry more about what goes the other way in a Duchene trade rather than him not having a 3C yet.

That was my understanding at the deadline too but I saw this last month:
"I was under the impression that once Maatta was hurt, the ask was two of Sheary, Jake, and Sprong plus a 1st and that JR finally said yes, only to have Sakic renege."

Obviously Jake is off the table now but I think JR really would stil love to get Duchene. That's the guy he's probably keeping an eye on all year.

 

[Jenkins]

I guess if you want to run under the assumption the better team wins every series that is cool.

I thought we were the better team in every series except for the Washington series.

- Columbus just wasn't that good.

- No Letang really hurt our transition game overall but more noticeable v the Caps.

- The Ottawa series really shouldn't have been that tight but I'll simplistically say Anderson was a big part of that. Easily the best goalie we faced and is it a coincidence that Hornqvist was injured that series

- Lastly thought we were better than Nashville. They had the advantage on D but we had a way better forward group and our goalie outplayed theirs. You need to be a high scoring team to beat us and they weren't.

 

[Riptide]

If Girgensons matched his career best in ES points/60, he would match what Bonino did at ES last year (which was not good, I should reiterate), assuming you gave Girgensons the same minutes and zone starts that Bonino got. Take Bonino's production, take out his PP production and I think you'd have what Girgensons would do as a 3C here most likely: around 12 goals and 25 points. Oddly enough, that's almost exactly the same as what Sutter produced in 2013-2014. I don't think that's awful production, especially when he would be playing super heavy defensive minutes, but that's not exactly good 3C production. Maybe he could do more by playing more offensive wingers with him (maybe getting Kessel more defensive zone starts would actually help improve his production, because it allows him to streak down the ice and use his speed and shot), but I'm not sure if you want to put guys like Sheary or Guentzel in heavy defensive minutes

A couple things jump out at me. First off, about Kessel. Does it really matter if he scores 25g/70pts on Malkin's line, or scores something similar or slightly better on the 3rd line? By most accounts here, Bonino was nothing special and we were still the highest scoring team in the league. So while there's obvious benefits if Kessel can drive his own line, I don't think it makes much of a difference to the team if Kessel scores 23g/70pts or if he scores 30g/70pts. Kessel as a playmaker making that 2nd line even more dangerous also has clear and obvious advantages.

Secondly, Girgensons. Just because he put up decent points as a depth player 3 years ago doesn't mean he will do so now under a different coach in a different system. These guys need to develop their offensive skills, and it's very possible that DB ruined him completely in that regard. His best pace was 20g/40pts. But there is zero guarantee he could ever do that again - especially as he's never come close to that since.

Realistically for him (and 90% of the other less established names we've tossed around), I'd expect something in the 10-15g/20-30pt range depending on the usage and his wingers (aka Kessel/Guentzel). If he or any of those guys can do that, while still taking heavy defensive starts, I'd be pretty happy with things. The only downside is the cost to acquire. Sure we might not get the offense... but as long as it's not terrible (or at least Bonino level for most of the season), then I think just the benefit of freeing up Crosby and Malkin for more offensive roles will make it worth it and make it work.

My two favorites from the unproven pile are Karlsson and Lindberg.

 

[Gurglesons]

I thought we were the better team in every series except for the Washington series.

- Columbus just wasn't that good.

- No Letang really hurt our transition game overall but more noticeable v the Caps.

- The Ottawa series really shouldn't have been that tight but I'll simplistically say Anderson was a big part of that. Easily the best goalie we faced and is it a coincidence that Hornqvist was injured that series

- Lastly thought we were better than Nashville. They had the advantage on D but we had a way better forward group and our goalie outplayed theirs. You need to be a high scoring team to beat us and they weren't.

I feel really different about this year. 2016 we rolled over teams with just pushing the puck up the ice and shooting.

This year that worked against Wash and Columbus, but both the Ottawa and Nash series I don't feel like that happened. It was like they decided as a collective to revert to the 2013 Pens and luckily it worked.

 

[Jenkins]

I feel really different about this year. 2016 we rolled over teams with just pushing the puck up the ice and shooting.

This year that worked against Wash and Columbus, but both the Ottawa and Nash series I don't feel like that happened. It was like they decided as a collective to revert to the 2013 Pens and luckily it worked.

Agreed about 2016. I was pretty confident all the way. The only time I had any small doubt was in the Tampa series because they looked the most dangerous if we turned it over.

In 2017 Sully thought we couldn't win with that game plan because of injuries. You kind of have to agree with him since 1. it worked and 2. if we played more of a run and gun style this defense would have been exposed. He went with the style that we saw. Batten down the hatches and hope the forwards take their opportunities when they get them. When you have Sid, Phil, Geno and the way Jake played it's less risky. It didn't look pretty but it worked.

Definitely not ideal and it was a real battle at times but thankfully we had some of the best forwards in the league on the ice and some good role players. I was still confident in every series except the Washington one. Fleury really stepped up and I thought Maatta was huge in the D zone.

 

[Riptide]

The other issue is as soon as Duchene moves teams like Montreal, Carolina, Nashville, etc. are all going to be after the same type of centers as we are which is going to increase the price. I'd say that has a lot more to do with the stand still than Rutherford being able to just go out and get a center.

Why? The last thing Nashville needs is another middle six center. The same goes for Montreal and Carolina. NYR or CBJ, sure, but while many teams may want someone like Karlsson or Lindberg or whomever, there's probably not very many who are going to be willing to pony up very much for them. If it's cheap... sure. But at market rate? Probably not. For most teams they'd be luxuries. So while sure some might drive the price up a little, but depending on how many of these guys might actually be available, I don't think it's going to be stupidly expensive - at least in my mind, but then I guess that's all relative.

I wonder if one of the ex-Pens team, NJ/Buffalo/etc, would maybe take a risk on DP, who will hit waivers if moves down for the Pens in exchange for a young guy like Girgs. Seems like a project for project deal.

While I don't think DP is as valueless as some suggest, I don't think he has the value to get someone we'd like. We would be adding, and likely adding significantly (to the point that what we're adding would be worth more than him).

 

[PensandCaps]

NJD would totally want DP. hell they gave a 3rd for Mueller who has aurgably proven less than DP as a pro.

 

[Riptide]

I mean in a vacuum. The main issue is Johnson is constantly injured and makes 5 million until he is 35.

If "constantly injured" is missing 34 games over 3 years... I'm sure we can hack it.

Great player but we couldn't do his 7 year contract. Forget the $5 mil per year. We could do that for a few years, but it's really the term.
I'd do that trade

We may not want to do it... but we absolutely could. And honestly... that contract would be the least of my concerns. Trade him 4-5 years from now. Might not get much for him then, but if we're looking for an "elite" #3C, TJ would probably be about the best we could get. Might need to lean a little more on Crosby defensively, but TJ with Kessel or Sprong/ZAR on the 3rd line would eat teams alive.

That said it's a pipe dream. TB isn't moving him anytime soon. Everyone saw what we did with HBK in 15/16 and no one is going to voluntarily move someone like that if they don't have to. And his contract ensures that that isn't happening any time soon.

 

[Riptide]

Nashville, Rangers, and Minnesota.

Nashville, Columbus... PR aside (fan favorites and all that ****)... yeah that's probably about it. Maybe Edmonton/Toronto given their young stars? But I think those two teams (NSH/CBJ) are really building something special. Both are clearly missing a couple of pieces (NSH #2C, CBJ #3C, a tad more depth), but both are very very close to being contending teams - and ones that are complete teams, filled with depth.

They won't have the same game breaking talent we do, but if they can fill those holes with the right players and not take away too much from their roster to do so, they're going to be very very dangerous teams over the next few years. To the point that a big part of me wishes Columbus still played in the west.

No they weren't.

https://www.nhl.com/news/2016-2017-predictions-from-nhl-experts/c-282554762

They were picked by 1 expert to win the cup and picked by 6 to make the finals. There were 20 pundits. The Penguins were also only picked by 2 experts to win the cup and 4 to make the finals, so let's not act like these experts suddenly have some sort of credibility. Same below, there were only 3 of 10 who picked the Predators to make the finals, none of which picked them to win.

Dude, we were not even picking our team to make it to the finals, so it's hard to knock on the "experts" for thinking the same. We were missing our #1D. Only 1 team in the cap era had previously won a cup without a #1D, and they were built that way from the get go, not scrambling down the stretch to fill holes.

As for NSH, seeing how there were 8 teams in the West, each with a shot at the finals, and 6/20 picked Nashville... that's pretty good odds.

Johansen wasn't the reason they lost that series. Adding Letang and Johansen back to each team and the Penguins win in an even more convincing way.

Do you seriously believe that? I said back when NSH was still playing ANA that I would have rather faced NSH due to the RyJo injury, as I felt (and still feel) that missing your #1C when you have crap C depth is a much bigger loss then missing your #1D when you have pretty good D depth. Think about it for a second. They drove the play for entire games - and they did that without RyJo. You can replace a #1D by committee if you have the guys who can eat the minutes (I said this before the finals too). And while you can divide the defensive responsibilities of a #1C, you cannot divide their ability to create offense. Nashville was screwed offensively - and they still managed to dictate play for huge stretches of the games.

I'm not going to go as far as saying they would have won if both teams had been healthy... but losing RyJo was a much bigger loss for them then losing Letang was for us. And that's even before getting into them losing Fiala who was having an outstanding playoffs before getting hurt.

 

[Riptide]

Obviously you are much higher on St. Louis and Minnesota than me.

I think you can definitely argue Anaheim and Edmonton will be their main competitors this year with Calgary and Dallas as maybes.

Will be cool to see some new powers rise up in the West. Which means Chicago will likely come out lol.

Yeah I don't get ranking STL or MIN over NSH. I don't agree with ANA or EDM, but I can at least understand it.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I believe the Pens would still win if they had Letang and they had Johansen, having that extra offense from the back end would have been huge and given the Preds even more issues trying to defend another star that can burn them. For the pens, yeah Johansen would have made Arvidsson or whomever else, more potent, but the Pens were still a rock solid team without Letang in that finals, adding him in would have put them even more over the top, while adding Ryjo for the Preds would have likely not embarrassed them as much, if anything.

It wasn't the Preds scoring that was the problem, it was Rinne not being as good as he needed to be at times and the Pens speed burning the Preds D.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Still blows my mind we won without Letang.

 

[Jenkins]

I believe the Pens would still win if they had Letang and they had Johansen, having that extra offense from the back end would have been huge and given the Preds even more issues trying to defend another star that can burn them. For the pens, yeah Johansen would have made Arvidsson or whomever else, more potent, but the Pens were still a rock solid team without Letang in that finals, adding him in would have put them even more over the top, while adding Ryjo for the Preds would have likely not embarrassed them as much, if anything.

It wasn't the Preds scoring that was the problem, it was Rinne not being as good as he needed to be at times and the Pens speed burning the Preds D.

I think it was when it comes to playing us. You need to average 3+ goals a game to beat us.

60% of the time we scored 3+ goals and 36% of the time we scored 4+. You need to score big against us or its over.

 

[Riptide]

I believe the Pens would still win if they had Letang and they had Johansen, having that extra offense from the back end would have been huge and given the Preds even more issues trying to defend another star that can burn them. For the pens, yeah Johansen would have made Arvidsson or whomever else, more potent, but the Pens were still a rock solid team without Letang in that finals, adding him in would have put them even more over the top, while adding Ryjo for the Preds would have likely not embarrassed them as much, if anything.

It wasn't the Preds scoring that was the problem, it was Rinne not being as good as he needed to be at times and the Pens speed burning the Preds D.

In addition to what Jenkins pointed out, losing RyJo hampered their PP. They lost the option to work things from down low, and were forced to run everything from the points. Not the end of the world with their D... but it was one of the reasons they went 0-8 in the final 3 games - including 0-4 in game 6.

And well yeah, Nashville would have to defend things differently and it would be harder on them... I question how we'd play if Letang was in the lineup. Our game these playoffs were
F U G L Y for the vast majority of the games. But that was to an extent, by design. Sullivan took what he had and played everyone to their strenghts and turned us into a counter attack team. But this wasn't the same team as last year. From Christmas on last year (15/16) we were the best team in the league. We came into the POs hot, and we were for the most part destroying everyone - if not on the score board, at least in terms of on ice play - both in the POs and down the stretch. That never happened this year - even when we had Letang in Dec. Which means... even if we had had Letang... would we have played in such a way that would have shut down the other teams the way we did? I honestly do not know.

Here's the breakdown per month from last 16/17:
Oct: 4th in pts, 14th in SAT (50%)
Nov: 19th in pts, 4th in SAT (53.4%)
Dec: 2nd in pts, 14th in SAT (50%)
Jan: 23rd in pts, 16th in SAT (49.5%)
Feb: 7th in pts, 13th in SAT (50.5%)
Mar: 7th in pts, 11th in SAT (50.3%)
Apr: 11th in pts, 29th in SAT (41.7%) - 5 GP

Now compare that to the year before (15/16) from when Sullivan got hired:
Dec: 23rd in pts, 1st in SAT (58.3%)
Jan: 10th in pts, 6th in SAT (53.2%)
Feb: 8th in pts, 4th in SAT (54%)
Mar: 1st in pts, 1st in SAT (57.1%)
Apr: 4th in pts, 19th in SAT (47.7%) - 5 GP

I mean if you ignore April where only a handful of games were played, and both times we were resting players... there's a pretty significant difference going on - even when we had Letang. I mean in terms of SAT, our best month last year barely eclipses our worst full month the year prior (aka ignoring Apr). So while sure Letang would have changed things... our game was no where near where it was the prior year. Which means I question how much it would have changed things - at least in regards to who would have made a bigger impact on the ice between Letang and RyJo.

It still boggles my mind that we managed to win the cup.

 

[PensandCaps]

Yeah I don't get ranking STL or MIN over NSH. I don't agree with ANA or EDM, but I can at least understand it.

Why not MIN? Their forward depth is insane. And have a pretty good top four and a better goalie. I think they're at worst even with Nashville. And STL has a superstar along with depth up front.I don't really see a difference between the 3 teams..MIN being the best though.

 

[PensandCaps]

If "constantly injured" is missing 34 games over 3 years... I'm sure we can hack it.



We may not want to do it... but we absolutely could. And honestly... that contract would be the least of my concerns. Trade him 4-5 years from now. Might not get much for him then, but if we're looking for an "elite" #3C, TJ would probably be about the best we could get. Might need to lean a little more on Crosby defensively, but TJ with Kessel or Sprong/ZAR on the 3rd line would eat teams alive.

That said it's a pipe dream. TB isn't moving him anytime soon. Everyone saw what we did with HBK in 15/16 and no one is going to voluntarily move someone like that if they don't have to. And his contract ensures that that isn't happening any time soon.

Yah, I don't get why people get scared off by the lenght of the contract. You can easily trade him down the road for assets.

 

[Shady Machine]

​

I think people think Anaheim's better than they are because the division is utter trash. They're super top-heavy (and the top is old) at forward and the goaltending is questionable. Division play throws season point totals out of whack in the Pacific.

The only club in the Central which is definitely garbage (and looks it) is Colorado. In the Pac, Vancouver, Calgary and Arizona are all garbage and the Kings can't score, even against the shoddy goaltending of their division. Between the four of them, they averaged ~75 points. In the Central, I don't think any of them matches Nashville's 94. In the Metro, I don't know that any one of those teams wins enough games to hit that 75 point average.

Yup I agree with this. Amazing how bad that division is.

 

[Shady Machine]

Do you seriously believe that? I said back when NSH was still playing ANA that I would have rather faced NSH due to the RyJo injury, as I felt (and still feel) that missing your #1C when you have crap C depth is a much bigger loss then missing your #1D when you have pretty good D depth. Think about it for a second. They drove the play for entire games - and they did that without RyJo. You can replace a #1D by committee if you have the guys who can eat the minutes (I said this before the finals too). And while you can divide the defensive responsibilities of a #1C, you cannot divide their ability to create offense. Nashville was screwed offensively - and they still managed to dictate play for huge stretches of the games.

I'm not going to go as far as saying they would have won if both teams had been healthy... but losing RyJo was a much bigger loss for them then losing Letang was for us. And that's even before getting into them losing Fiala who was having an outstanding playoffs before getting hurt.

I agree in this circumstance. The Pens lost Letang with plenty of time to adjust to life without him. Nashville lost their number 1 center in the middle of the playoffs. That's a damn hard thing to adjust to. High level, I'd say #1D is roughly equal in importance to #1C, but it really depends on depth at the positions.

 

[cheesedanish87]

This makes no sense to me at all unless JR is planning on trading a winger.

Even if JR is trading a winger this isn't the guy i would want.

 

[Empoleon8771]

A free player is a free player and it may allow the Penguins to move another winger for a center without hurting the wing depth. I have no issues if the Penguins get him. Trying to think logically, I think signing him could open up a Sheary trade. You could go with:

Guentzel-Crosby-Hornqvist
Rust-Malkin-Zapirov
Hagelin-3C-Kessel

It allows Sprong to just step in for Zaripov and the rest of the lineup would stay the same.

I just wonder whether he'd play LW or RW. RW with Malkin may make more sense, but the Penguins are really deep at RW already.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

This makes no sense to me at all unless JR is planning on trading a winger.

Even if JR is trading a winger this isn't the guy i would want.

What's the breakdown on this guy? So he slots right in with Geno?

 

[Empoleon8771]

What's the breakdown on this guy? So he slots right in with Geno?

Small skilled winger who had been very productive in the KHL. He got suspended for steroid use or something, but he's allowed to play in the NHL somehow. Not exactly sure how it works.