The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[TehDoak]

Devils Should Target Goalie Anthony Stolarz in the Offseason - The Hockey Writers New Jersey Devils Latest News, Analysis & More

The Devils need a goalie. Rather than make a risky trade depleting their prospect pool and assets, they should sign Anthony Stolarz.

thehockeywriters.com

I know so many people are all in on UPL & Levi as the goalie tandem next year.

But, I would not hate adding Stolarz and having Levi as the organizational 3rd who is waivers exempt until he gets to the 60 NHL GP mark.

View attachment 865753

It is the same as having RyJo as the 8th D that is waivers exempt and they can feel OK about if he has to play.

The absolute right move is to sign a veteran goalie to back up UPL.

That is not to say Levi isn't going to get time next year, he will.

But, if you keep Levi in the AHL, you accomplish a few things:

1. You keep his second contract reasonable. He is similar to Power in that he won't have leverage. Assuming you sign UPL to a starters deal this summer for 3-5 years, you then have leverage to sign Levi to deal +1/-1 year of UPLs deal so you can stagger them and make a decision on who moving forward.
2. Levi doesn't have to share the net and can get a starters load as he adjusts more to the professional game
3. One goalie injury doesn't put you in a position where Levi/UPL has to play 15 straight game because our backup goalie is shitty.

 

[Beerz]

Devils Should Target Goalie Anthony Stolarz in the Offseason - The Hockey Writers New Jersey Devils Latest News, Analysis & More

The Devils need a goalie. Rather than make a risky trade depleting their prospect pool and assets, they should sign Anthony Stolarz.

thehockeywriters.com

I know so many people are all in on UPL & Levi as the goalie tandem next year.

But, I would not hate adding Stolarz and having Levi as the organizational 3rd who is waivers exempt until he gets to the 60 NHL GP mark.

View attachment 865753

It is the same as having RyJo as the 8th D that is waivers exempt and they can feel OK about if he has to play.

I would prefer Levi down in Eochester and a reliable backup signed... but if the backup falters people are going to go postal on Adams. I think Levi is up next year

 

[Jim Bob]

The absolute right move is to sign a veteran goalie to back up UPL.

That is not to say Levi isn't going to get time next year, he will.

But, if you keep Levi in the AHL, you accomplish a few things:

1. You keep his second contract reasonable. He is similar to Power in that he won't have leverage. Assuming you sign UPL to a starters deal this summer for 3-5 years, you then have leverage to sign Levi to deal +1/-1 year of UPLs deal so you can stagger them and make a decision on who moving forward.
2. Levi doesn't have to share the net and can get a starters load as he adjusts more to the professional game
3. One goalie injury doesn't put you in a position where Levi/UPL has to play 15 straight game because our backup goalie is shitty.

For me, it is the depth and having 3 NHL goalie lottery tickets instead of just two.

There are zero guarantees that UPL repeats his second half of 23-24 performance or that Levi could step up either. With it being Win Now, more options in net the better for me.

 

[Gabrielor]

For me, it is the depth and having 3 NHL goalie lottery tickets instead of just two.

There are zero guarantees that UPL repeats his second half of 23-24 performance or that Levi could step up either. With it being Win Now, more options in net the better for me.

So who do you like as the 3rd guy to add?

 

[Beerz]

Overpay Hartman and Joshua on 1 or 2 year deals.


Skinner- Thomspson- Tuch
Peterka- Cozens- Quinn

Benson-X- Hartman
Greenway - Krebs- Joshua

Find a 3C to trade for. Haven't thought that one out yet.


Edit: Better yet.. Trade Krebs and sign Yakov Trenin

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

The absolute right move is to sign a veteran goalie to back up UPL.

That is not to say Levi isn't going to get time next year, he will.

But, if you keep Levi in the AHL, you accomplish a few things:

1. You keep his second contract reasonable. He is similar to Power in that he won't have leverage. Assuming you sign UPL to a starters deal this summer for 3-5 years, you then have leverage to sign Levi to deal +1/-1 year of UPLs deal so you can stagger them and make a decision on who moving forward.
2. Levi doesn't have to share the net and can get a starters load as he adjusts more to the professional game
3. One goalie injury doesn't put you in a position where Levi/UPL has to play 15 straight game because our backup goalie is shitty.

All true, and it won't happen. You know it. I know it. We all know it.

 

[Jim Bob]

So who do you like as the 3rd guy to add?

Devils Should Target Goalie Anthony Stolarz in the Offseason - The Hockey Writers New Jersey Devils Latest News, Analysis & More

The Devils need a goalie. Rather than make a risky trade depleting their prospect pool and assets, they should sign Anthony Stolarz.

thehockeywriters.com

Stolarz would be the first guy to kick the tires on. The challenge there is that after getting a 1 yr deal in UFA last summer, he might get a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of the Korpisalo deal in Ottawa. But, if the Sabres could get him for a 1 or 2 yr deal, it would make sense to me.

Driedger is another guy that might be interesting on the UFA market. He has played pretty good in the AHL and in his 2 games in Seattle this season. So, if he checks out medically, I wouldn't hate him on a 1 yr deal.

A really interesting target would be Adin Hill if Vegas is shopping him to shed salary. He only has a 5 team No Trade list, so maybe they wouldn't have to worry about convincing him.

 

[Der Jaeger]

3 First for him. Way to much maybe joki First and rosen nd and krebs

Ottawa isn't trading Tkachuk for that offer.

I am really torn on Brady.

I can't get past him being the captain of a Senators team that has been more disappointing than the Sabres the last two years despite making even more "win now" type moves adding guys like Chychrun and Giroux.

And giving up a top 6 winger, a top 4 RHD, a top prospect, and a 1st seems like an overpay for a guy that I would wonder about. Plus, I would have almost no expectations that he would re-sign after his contract was up in 27-28.

But, he also ticks a lot of boxes for the type of player this team could use.

That is a trade that I could easily see being viewed as regrettable for both teams in 3-4 years.

I see it the same way. But I also see how Matthew changed how Florida played. They went from lots of talent but couldn't get it done, to a playoff style machine. They didn't acquire the gritty players throughout the roster. Matthew came in and everyone just followed suit.

I see Brady checking all those boxes for Buffalo: power forward, fights, emotionally engaged, net front presence, forechecking, physicality. And, he scores 30-40 goals, 60-80 points a year.

I could see his presence amping up the physicality in players like Thompson, Cozens, Greenway, etc. and making Buffalo really hard to play against.

I also think he could be part of the answer on the power play. Thompson - Dahlin - a lefty in the umbrella, Tkachuk net front, and either Cozens or Tuch in the below the goal line spot. They don't score many non-pretty power play goals, and that needs to change.

I like the offer for Ottawa too. They need a change. Peterka is a budding goal scorer who could pair back with Stutzle. Kulich is another budding goal scorer. They need a RHD. I think the 1st could move to a 2nd but I'm trying to be realistic about the whole trade.

I think Ottawa is going to go through another down year, move on from Giroux (if they can) and Chychrun, and adjust their rebuild anyway. This trade accelerates it a bit.

 

[Jim Bob]

I see it the same way. But I also see how Matthew changed how Florida played. They went from lots of talent but couldn't get it done, to a playoff style machine. They didn't acquire the gritty players throughout the roster. Matthew came in and everyone just followed suit.

I see Brady checking all those boxes for Buffalo: power forward, fights, emotionally engaged, net front presence, forechecking, physicality. And, he scores 30-40 goals, 60-80 points a year.

I could see his presence amping up the physicality in players like Thompson, Cozens, Greenway, etc. and making Buffalo really hard to play against.

I also think he could be part of the answer on the power play. Thompson - Dahlin - a lefty in the umbrella, Tkachuk net front, and either Cozens or Tuch in the below the goal line spot. They don't score many non-pretty power play goals, and that needs to change.

I like the offer for Ottawa too. They need a change. Peterka is a budding goal scorer who could pair back with Stutzle. Kulich is another budding goal scorer. They need a RHD. I think the 1st could move to a 2nd but I'm trying to be realistic about the whole trade.

I think Ottawa is going to go through another down year, move on from Giroux (if they can) and Chychrun, and adjust their rebuild anyway. This trade accelerates it a bit.

Matthew going to Florida is a completely different scenario than Brady coming to Buffalo, though.

Until proven otherwise, Buffalo is a place where players leave to thrive in a lot of instances. Plus, adding a really young former captain, who failed to lead his former team anywhere, to a young, inexperienced locker room could be problematic.

It's not like Eichel going to Vegas with all the experience and leadership they have. Or Matthew going to Florida that had leaders like Barkov, Ekblad, and Bobrovsky already entrenched in that locker room.

 

[Dingo44]

Matthew going to Florida is a completely different scenario than Brady coming to Buffalo, though.

Until proven otherwise, Buffalo is a place where players leave to thrive in a lot of instances. Plus, adding a really young former captain, who failed to lead his former team anywhere, to a young, inexperienced locker room could be problematic.

It's not like Eichel going to Vegas with all the experience and leadership they have. Or Matthew going to Florida that had leaders like Barkov, Ekblad, and Bobrovsky already entrenched in that locker room.

Been watching Brady since he was 16 and he's always been a gamer. He drags others into the fight. What's happened in Ottawa has nothing to do with him. His teammates all love him and both his dad and his brother elevated the teams on which they played and Brady's no different. I'd love to get him and Peterka/Kulich/RHD prospect and a 1st/2nd is worth it to me.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

This is so far from reality when looking at historical NHL numbers that I do not even know where to begin.

The few elite generational talents are typically the only players that this can be said to sometimes be true about, and their numbers often drop off slightly more due to an injury occurring than natural regression.

It might not be the full picture, but it's not completely bonkers



A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

 

[Chainshot]

I would also say that Florida was fairly strongly leaning into physical players, and Matthew was just another one. Bennett, Lomberg, the Finns my voice to text butchers, departed guys like Vatrano and Gudas. It isn’t that they started being dinks, they were dinks. Bennett was throwing cheap shots at Dahlin before Tkachuk ever got there he adds to their Kari of douche bags, and I don’t think Buffalo has those sorts of players that anyone would bring forward a different dial of play. They’ve actively avoided having those sorts of players, actively removed those sorts of players, and don’t have any in their system. Linus Weisbach is the dirtiest grittiest guy that they have on the farm. This is a systemic failing over two management teams.

 

[Irie]

It might not be the full picture, but it's not completely bonkers



A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

Well first of all, this data set is likely extremely corrupt.

Very few players in the league played 500 even strength minutes every year between 2009 and 2019. Players would retire and new players would be entering the league constantly, and many younger players only get a few seasons before they end up in lesser leagues. 500 minutes a season is 6 minutes a game, so most healthy players will be counted each year, but most players won't have stats from most of the years.

Secondly, data like this has zero context. A lot of young talented guys come into teams and ride shotgun in the top 6 with better players and have high point totals that are padded and then settle in as bottom six forwards, but continue to improve as players and would put up far better numbers at 27 or even at 29 if they played in the top 6, but they are role players and provide more usefulness in defensive roles. Girgensons is a prime example. Was he at his best at 20 years old? Because that is what this chart says. He was playing in the top 6 with Ennis, Gionta, Moulson and Stewart. Context aside, looking at his stats alone, Zemgus apparently peaked at 20-21, which is just an incorrect misguided conclusion to draw.

When Sheary got here, was he in a huge decline? Or were his numbers just vastly affected not playing on Crosby's wing? Context is everything, and very few NHL players are better players at 23 than they are at 26-27.

 

[Fjordy]

Matthew going to Florida is a completely different scenario than Brady coming to Buffalo, though.

Until proven otherwise, Buffalo is a place where players leave to thrive in a lot of instances. Plus, adding a really young former captain, who failed to lead his former team anywhere, to a young, inexperienced locker room could be problematic.

It's not like Eichel going to Vegas with all the experience and leadership they have. Or Matthew going to Florida that had leaders like Barkov, Ekblad, and Bobrovsky already entrenched in that locker room.

Hey! Dahlin and Brady bro

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Well first of all, this data set is likely extremely corrupt.

Very few players in the league played 500 even strength minutes every year between 2009 and 2019. Players would retire and new players would be entering the league constantly, and many younger players only get a few seasons before they end up in lesser leagues. 500 minutes a season is 6 minutes a game, so most healthy players will be counted each year, but most players won't have stats from most of the years.

Secondly, data like this has zero context. A lot of young talented guys come into teams and ride shotgun in the top 6 with better players and have high point totals that are padded and then settle in as bottom six forwards, but continue to improve as players and would put up far better numbers at 27 or even at 29 if they played in the top 6, but they are role players and provide more usefulness in defensive roles. Girgensons is a prime example. Was he at his best at 20 years old? Because that is what this chart says. He was playing in the top 6 with Ennis, Gionta, Moulson and Stewart. Context aside, looking at his stats alone, Zemgus apparently peaked at 20-21, which is just an incorrect misguided conclusion to draw.

When Sheary got here, was he in a huge decline? Or were his numbers just vastly affected not playing on Crosby's wing? Context is everything, and very few NHL players are better players at 23 than they are at 26-27.

You might prefer other methodology but the data has no appearance of being corrupt.

A player doesn't need to play in every season between 2009-2019 for the data to be relevant. It's what % of their top point total they recorded at that age compared to their best year.

"Context" doesn't really matter at the statistical level. There will be a story for all players through their careers and this washes it out for points. If you want make it more heuristic you'd use xG or Point Shares/WAR. Some players get deployed up in the line up very young, others buried with low minutes. Some players get to play on Crosby's wing young, others play on it when they're older.

Picking out individual players to tell a story you want is the antithetical to statistical analysis. A more compelling look would be how many 5v5 minutes a player plays at various ages. My strong suspicion is that injuries rapidly accrue after 23-25.

If ".. very few NHL players are better at 23 than they are at 26-27." they should be, on average, out scoring their younger selves.

 

[zenthusiast]

You might prefer other methodology but the data has no appearance of being corrupt.

A player doesn't need to play in every season between 2009-2019 for the data to be relevant. It's what % of their top point total they recorded at that age compared to their best year.

"Context" doesn't really matter at the statistical level. There will be a story for all players through their careers and this washes it out for points. If you want make it more heuristic you'd use xG or Point Shares/WAR. Some players get deployed up in the line up very young, others buried with low minutes. Some players get to play on Crosby's wing young, others play on it when they're older.

Picking out individual players to tell a story you want is the antithetical to statistical analysis. A more compelling look would be how many 5v5 minutes a player plays at various ages. My strong suspicion is that injuries rapidly accrue after 23-25.

If ".. very few NHL players are better at 23 than they are at 26-27." they should be, on average, out scoring their younger selves.

This post is absolutely true but if you see certain commonalities among outliers it’s also worth examining whether there’s a cause there

I don’t have data but I’m pretty sure I saw something about obvious elite players having a much different curve. Now granted they’re identified as “elite” because they maintain that pattern, but we can probably identify current players that *should* keep it up

 

[Selanne00008]

Been watching Brady since he was 16 and he's always been a gamer. He drags others into the fight. What's happened in Ottawa has nothing to do with him. His teammates all love him and both his dad and his brother elevated the teams on which they played and Brady's no different. I'd love to get him and Peterka/Kulich/RHD prospect and a 1st/2nd is worth it to me.

I'd really not want to move on from JJ. He has 40/40 potential even as soon as next year.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

This post is absolutely true but if you see certain commonalities among outliers it’s also worth examining whether there’s a cause there

I don’t have data but I’m pretty sure I saw something about obvious elite players having a much different curve. Now granted they’re identified as “elite” because they maintain that pattern, but we can probably identify current players that *should* keep it up

They might, certainly there are some people who fit pretty weird curves like Jagr.

But even for him his best year was 24 (likewise Lemieux, Bossy, and Gretzky). Weird stuff averages out over many samples. Unless 'elite' is defined as not dropping off.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The word is that Seth Jones might want out in Chicago. He'd solve the RHD issue for is for a long time, thought that $9.5M cap hit would be tough to handle. Would bringing him in mean losing Power?

 

[Selanne00008]

The word is that Seth Jones might want out in Chicago. He'd solve the RHD issue for is for a long time, thought that $9.5M cap hit would be tough to handle. Would bringing him in mean losing Power?

9.5?? JFC

 

[Beerz]

The word is that Seth Jones might want out in Chicago. He'd solve the RHD issue for is for a long time, thought that $9.5M cap hit would be tough to handle. Would bringing him in mean losing Power?

That ain't the move.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

9.5?? JFC

 

[Joseph Nathan]

Overpay Hartman and Joshua on 1 or 2 year deals.


Skinner- Thomspson- Tuch
Peterka- Cozens- Quinn

Benson-X- Hartman
Greenway - Krebs- Joshua

Find a 3C to trade for. Haven't thought that one out yet.


Edit: Better yet.. Trade Krebs and sign Yakov Trenin

Hartman signed 4 years nmc with Minnesota

 

[Irie]

You might prefer other methodology but the data has no appearance of being corrupt.

A player doesn't need to play in every season between 2009-2019 for the data to be relevant. It's what % of their top point total they recorded at that age compared to their best year.

"Context" doesn't really matter at the statistical level. There will be a story for all players through their careers and this washes it out for points. If you want make it more heuristic you'd use xG or Point Shares/WAR. Some players get deployed up in the line up very young, others buried with low minutes. Some players get to play on Crosby's wing young, others play on it when they're older.

Picking out individual players to tell a story you want is the antithetical to statistical analysis. A more compelling look would be how many 5v5 minutes a player plays at various ages. My strong suspicion is that injuries rapidly accrue after 23-25.

If ".. very few NHL players are better at 23 than they are at 26-27." they should be, on average, out scoring their younger selves.

The dataset is flat out flawed.

75+% of your data set would be incomplete when collecting data in this fashion, because most of the players did not play those ten years they are graphing for. You can't graph trajectories of players with incomplete datasets. Your results are going to be misrepresentative of what you are trying to measure.

As a universal scoring measuring stick, context is immensely important. Do you believe Girgensons in his 30s would not outscore his age 20 year old self now if he were playing a full season with Thompson and Tuch? I know he would.

The dataset on the majority of young players is also extremely lacking. The majority of early 20s players play incomplete seasons on callups, and are not eligible for this dataset. Most of them end up playing in the bottom six as filler and their inclusion in this graph would dramatically change the curve, yet they are missing. Then there are the young guys with high draft pedigree that only stick around for a couple seasons, but are given top six minutes, but who have no data in their mid to later years as they are out of the league.

Teams rely on older players to play defensive roles. The coaching scheme utilizes them in matchups or energy roles, and they are instructed to play defense first. This also dramatically skews the stats when viewed out of context. Almost every healthy winger in the league will put up better numbers at age 27 when playing with a McDavid or a MacKinnon than they would at 22, but the majority of players that are still in the league at 27 are playing bottom six roles by then, further skewing this data set.

If you want an honest indicator of progression by age then you take out the calendar year restrictions and run the data on individuals by player age. The graph changes substantially. It would still be highly flawed as it doesn't account for the context, but it wouldn't be quite as bad. As Chain pointed out, the best teams in the league are rolling out mostly rosters devoid of a lot of kids. This is definitely a case where bad data leads to faulty assumptions.

And for the record, we were talking about this Sabres team and the age of the players three years ago, mostly 19-22, as not being ready to go "all in on the trade market". We aren't talking about 24-26 year olds.

 

[Ace]

Devils Should Target Goalie Anthony Stolarz in the Offseason - The Hockey Writers New Jersey Devils Latest News, Analysis & More

The Devils need a goalie. Rather than make a risky trade depleting their prospect pool and assets, they should sign Anthony Stolarz.

thehockeywriters.com

I know so many people are all in on UPL & Levi as the goalie tandem next year.

But, I would not hate adding Stolarz and having Levi as the organizational 3rd who is waivers exempt until he gets to the 60 NHL GP mark.

View attachment 865753

It is the same as having RyJo as the 8th D that is waivers exempt and they can feel OK about if he has to play.

I don’t know that anyone is really all in on having UPL/Levi. More that we just see no way it isn’t happening. Unlike last year, at least, it is a defensible plan.