The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[zenthusiast]

Why would we do that after trading Mitts? Puts an even bigger crater at the center position.

Cozens is not a long term answer at center.

 

[zenthusiast]

Why would the Sabres do that with Marner a year away from UFA, as well?

A $10M+ AAV winger is not what this roster needs to add no matter who they are trading him for unless we get a half-dozen people drunk and can deal Skinner and '26 2nd for Marner.

You can sign players to new contracts in the NHL

 

[TehDoak]

Why would the Sabres do that with Marner a year away from UFA, as well?

A $10M+ AAV winger is not what this roster needs to add no matter who they are trading him for unless we get a half-dozen people drunk and can deal Skinner and '26 2nd for Marner.

Marner just makes zero sense at any level.

You would be paying the trifecta:

Sky high acquisition cost, an expensive long term salary, and a long term contract with more than half of it being on the wrong side of the aging curve.

To do that, the player has to be an exact fit for what we need. Marner isn't that.

 

[Jim Bob]

You can sign players to new contracts in the NHL

You cannot force a player to sign a contract outside of the KHL.

Plus, I would have no interest in the type of AAV that Marner likely demands for a winger.

 

[zenthusiast]

You cannot force a player to sign a contract outside of the KHL.

Plus, I would have no interest in the type of AAV that Marner likely demands for a winger.

The first point is obvious, but the “no team is going to acquire a player on an expiring contract without an extension agreement in place” should really be assumed, even if that team is the Sabres

The second is certainly fair but I disagree

 

[zenthusiast]

Marner just makes zero sense at any level.

You would be paying the trifecta:

Sky high acquisition cost, an expensive long term salary, and a long term contract with more than half of it being on the wrong side of the aging curve.

To do that, the player has to be an exact fit for what we need. Marner isn't that.

I suppose if you think the team is close, the fit is important. I’d prefer to see a bit of a ground razing

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Possibly, it would depend on few things like organizational needs, their view on Rosen’s upside, etc.

Rosen is tough example for this. He’s hardly played in the Swedish mens league and didn’t start developing at that level until he came here last year. He had a solid AHL rookie year and then took another step forward this season. Barring regression, I don’t see his value dropping. It may even go up if he keeps progressing.

We should be open to trading any of the young forwards to improve the team. But there is no urgency to trade them. Rosen has 2yrs left on his ELC. Kulich, Savoie and Ostlund are starting their 3yr ELCs next season. They can’t go anywhere and are cheap NHL depth that doesn’t have to be rostered. Which has value to us or any team they get traded to.

Worrying about them losing value is overblown. It’s too early in their development to be worry about that yet. They are a few years of performing well below expectations from starting losing value. I mean they are 20/21yr olds just starting their pro careers. EdIt: Although Rosen had impressive head start as a teenager and Kulich even more so.

Could you now trade Rosen for #14 overall? No
Could you now trade Ostlund for #16 overall? No
Could you trade Kulich for #28 overall? Probably, but not a slam dunk
Could you trade Savoie for #9 overall? No

I see them all losing value, except for maybe Kulich. People will disagree and that's fine, but they sure as shit aren't increasing in value the longer they develop.

For one thing, most of them were drafted as centers and now very few orgs would trade for them expecting any of them would play center.

Why would the Sabres do that with Marner a year away from UFA, as well?

A $10M+ AAV winger is not what this roster needs to add no matter who they are trading him for unless we get a half-dozen people drunk and can deal Skinner and '26 2nd for Marner.

I've said it before but no team should pay a winger that much -- it makes a balanced roster impossible under the current cap. $9M should be the absolute max for a winger, and he needs to drive a line for even that.

 

[DapperCam]

Could you now trade Rosen for #14 overall? No
Could you now trade Ostlund for #16 overall? No
Could you trade Kulich for #28 overall? Probably, but not a slam dunk
Could you trade Savoie for #9 overall? No

I see them all losing value, except for maybe Kulich. People will disagree and that's fine, but they sure as shit aren't increasing in value the longer they develop.

For one thing, most of them were drafted as centers and now very few orgs would trade for them expecting any of them would play center.

I agree, but not because of the reason you've implied. Ostlund, Kulich and Savoie are worth their draft positions in a vacuum, but teams will usually prefer to pick their own young player fitting their long term needs rather than trade a pick for another team's young player.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Cozens is not a long term answer at center.

I wonder the same thing myself, but I think this year will tell us a lot. His contract is still worth it if he's a high-end 3C.

I agree, but not because of the reason you've implied. Ostlund, Kulich and Savoie are worth their draft positions in a vacuum, but teams will usually prefer to pick their own young player fitting their long term needs rather than trade a pick for another team's young player.

Yeah, and those players don't fit any team's long term needs, including Buffalo's. No team is trying to figure out how to acquire any of these guys, like we're trying to figure out how to acquire other team's prospects.

 

[TehDoak]

I suppose if you think the team is close, the fit is important. I’d prefer to see a bit of a ground razing

I'm fine with big changes. But, Marner is a depreciating asset. He's 26. He's likely peaking or already peaked. You've got 2-3 peak years left, then diminishing returns.

I mean, I suppose if you are making this deal in concert with buying out Skinner and you are going to run Thompson-Marner on the top line, it could work. But, that is the kind of roster group blowup that, to be frank, I don't trust Adams to oversee. That is open heart surgery and Adams hasn't show he can do an appendectomy.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Cozens is not a long term answer at center.

Maybe, we know Mitch Marner isn't for a fact.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Could you now trade Rosen for #14 overall? No
Could you now trade Ostlund for #16 overall? No
Could you trade Kulich for #28 overall? Probably, but not a slam dunk
Could you trade Savoie for #9 overall? No

I see them all losing value, except for maybe Kulich. People will disagree and that's fine, but they sure as shit aren't increasing in value the longer they develop.

For one thing, most of them were drafted as centers and now very few orgs would trade for them expecting any of them would play center.


I've said it before but no team should pay a winger that much -- it makes a balanced roster impossible under the current cap. $9M should be the absolute max for a winger, and he needs to drive a line for even that.

These are tough statements to be conclusive about. 1st round prospects are rarely traded prior to playing in the NHL. When they are traded it isn't for picks. From my intuition based on how teams use their picks:

Rosen would not go for 14th (he shouldn't have gone for 14th when selected)
Ostlund would probably get you about the same pick back
Kulich would get you 10-16
Savoie would get you 10-16

 

[zenthusiast]

I'm fine with big changes. But, Marner is a depreciating asset. He's 26. He's likely peaking or already peaked. You've got 2-3 peak years left, then diminishing returns.

I mean, I suppose if you are making this deal in concert with buying out Skinner and you are going to run Thompson-Marner on the top line, it could work. But, that is the kind of roster group blowup that, to be frank, I don't trust Adams to oversee. That is open heart surgery and Adams hasn't show he can do an appendectomy.

Well yeah, players decline as they get older, but high level players often hold onto their level longer. You also can’t win every contract, which is why winning the ones like Thompson matter so much. I also doubt Adams’ willingness to stray from a more conservative approach tbf.

Maybe, we know Mitch Marner isn't for a fact.

Yeah, but it’s not a one-for-one swap where Marner slides in at 2C (though if he did they’d finally have someone with a brain since they jettisoned Mittelstadt lol). If that was the only move they made it would be a mess, but at this point I’m seeing a winger out of position at center being traded for a high end distributor winger a la MSL

 

[Fly Boy]

Would rather go after Rantanen over Marner in this hypothetical scenario. At least Moose has actually played C.

For the record I don't think they should go after either.

 

[Chainshot]

I agree that it makes no sense to trade our best prospects for veterans who will soon be UFAs. But guys like Cirelli and Farabee are different.

At this point, Rosen might be fourth or even fifth on their in-house depth chart. "Best" is subjective

I wonder the same thing myself, but I think this year will tell us a lot. His contract is still worth it if he's a high-end 3C.


Yeah, and those players don't fit any team's long term needs, including Buffalo's. No team is trying to figure out how to acquire any of these guys, like we're trying to figure out how to acquire other team's prospects.

Cozens at his cap hit is also a good value as RW2.

 

[Dingo44]

Marner is not what we need. Quinn will be our Marner except I expect he produces in the playoffs.

 

[zenthusiast]

Marner is not what we need. Quinn will be our Marner except I expect he produces in the playoffs.

Regrettably, we’ll never have a chance to find out

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

These are tough statements to be conclusive about. 1st round prospects are rarely traded prior to playing in the NHL. When they are traded it isn't for picks. From my intuition based on how teams use their picks:

Rosen would not go for 14th (he shouldn't have gone for 14th when selected)
Ostlund would probably get you about the same pick back
Kulich would get you 10-16
Savoie would get you 10-16

Very true, on all points. I don't even think we need to trade them soon -- that's not my point. It's that I don't want our GM feeling pressure to put them on the Sabres roster because I want to start watching an actual NHL team. Half the people here are already penciling Kulich and Savoie onto the team next year, and I'm sure their agents are doing likewise.

If we keep them, they should be callups-only for the next two seasons. Not necessarily because they aren't NHL-ready -- it's that I want us to have a full roster for once, without having to put training wheels on two lines.

Regrettably, we’ll never have a chance to find out

Adams could put together a really great roster this offseason if he wanted to. He probably could have last offseason too -- if the team doesn't make the playoffs this year that's a choice and that's on him and Pegula.

 

[MOGlLNY]

oh no

 

[zenthusiast]

oh no

Might be a leak from RBA’s camp to pressure the team

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Very true, on all points. I don't even think we need to trade them soon -- that's not my point. It's that I don't want our GM feeling pressure to put them on the Sabres roster because I want to start watching an actual NHL team. Half the people here are already penciling Kulich and Savoie onto the team next year, and I'm sure their agents are doing likewise.

If we keep them, they should be callups-only for the next two seasons. Not necessarily because they aren't NHL-ready -- it's that I want us to have a full roster for once, without having to put training wheels on two lines.


Adams could put together a really great roster this offseason if he wanted to. He probably could have last offseason too -- if the team doesn't make the playoffs this year that's a choice and that's on him and Pegula.

Savoie is trickier to predict, but I don't think Kulich needs 2 more years in Rochester. If he doesn't make the sabres next year he should the year after. I think there's a decent chance at least one if not both of them are better than an otherwise league average 4th liner in 24-25; in that case I have no trouble with them on the team.

If Buffalo missed the playoffs because two lines had training wheels it was Thompson's and Cozen's not Mitts or Krebs. They dropped 50 goals from last season (16 from the power play). That's the tricky part.

If Thompson / Cozens are 2023-24 going forward the team is sunk. If they're closer to 22-23 they'll be ok. That's huge disaster, where they'd need to look at something drastic like packaging Power + Prospect + Pick for a 1C to slot Thompson down; and I don't think there's a deal like that out there to be had.

 

[Jim Bob]

Might be a leak from RBA’s camp to pressure the team

That 1000% seems like a leak from RBA's agent in hopes that the fanbase reaction is such that it pushes the team back to the table.

But, their owner has been cheap with RBA before and may not be interested in actually paying market value for a top 5 NHL head coach.

 

[OkimLom]

Cozens is not a long term answer at center.

We will see what he looks like playing under an NHL-level coach. If he doesn't show progress, then I would come around to that thought.

 

[Irie]

Adams not improving the team in the summer of 2021, 22, and 23 are the reasons we missed the playoffs in 2023 and 2024

The volume of draft picks was way over the top. The unused cap space was a wasted resource. Adams was keeping a budget not building a team.

There isn’t a good defense for Adams inaction the last 3 years. The difference this year, I hope, is pressure is being applied downward from ownership (and Ruff) to win now.

The solution at the start of the (Adams) rebuild was never "trade picks because we have too many.

Draft picks are lottery tickets unless they are top 10 picks. You use them and pray that one of the kids you draft turns into a perennial allstar in 4-6 years. When you use a 14th overall pick on a guy like Rosen, it's a bit like buying a new car, the moment you make the selection(drive the car off the lot), it losses half it's value.

Even moving Rosen now, he doesn't have 14OA value, even though he has been developing nicely.

Accumulating trade value with the prospects you draft should never be the goal. Holding on to your prospects long enough to not make a Hagel sized mistake of giving up too soon should always be the goal. Yes, you are going to eat some value on prospects you hold too long as they bust, but that value is never enough to justify cutting bait too soon.

What Adams did wrong wasn't "not moving the extra picks", it was his failure to bring in decent vet mentors to insulate the kids and help them learn how to succeed in the NHL. The main focus should never have been "playoffs or bust for experience", it should always have been about learning how to play in this league to be successful, and Adams also had a coach that ignored all the details that turn average players into good players. Letting them all play undisciplined shinny hockey to "boost confidence"(and their point totals and contract asks) while neglecting defense and responsibility and ignoring the details of the game was always a stupid idea, yet here we are with half the fanbase believing it was a great idea.

Adams has done well with the patient approach to the farm and his picks and prospects. It is his coaching choices and roster supplementation that has been crap.

 

[Fjordy]

At this point, Rosen might be fourth or even fifth on their in-house depth chart. "Best" is subjective


Cozens at his cap hit is also a good value as RW2.

Well, he is still a good prospect who can be involved in a trade or just let him develop further. You just don't typically trade prospects like this for a 4C or a veteran defenseman like TVR.