Minnewildsota
He who laughs last thinks slowest
- Jun 7, 2010
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Take offense out of the equation, what is Bedard better at?
That's how stupid that question is.
The Race for the Calder Trophy
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That's how stupid that question is.
- Aug 24, 2011
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BHawk21
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Hockey games have all situations. Show me where Faber blows him out of the water. It was a compliment.
MuckOG
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- May 18, 2012
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How many rookie defensemen came into the league and immediately took over the 1D spot? And a month or two in, took on the job of qb'ing the PP1 and a regular PK, also getting the toughest assignments in every game.....on a team fighting for the playoffs?
If it wasn't for Faber, the Wild would most likely be picking in the top 10 of this year's draft.
You're right, my bad. Is was Robertson, not Stutzle.
- Apr 27, 2005
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The Hawks have been 0.63 goals per 60 worse with Bedard on the ice. That's a 50% jump in their goal differential in the wrong direction. And that's with Bedard getting 60% offensive zone starts, while the rest of the team gets 44% offensive zone starts. That means that without Bedard on the ice, the Hawks start in the D zone 40% more often and still perform way better.
On top of that, Hawks get the last change in half of their games, making it harder for teams to matchup. Make all the excuses you want - but you can't explain away the fact that Bedard is currently a very flawed 5v5 player. The data and eye test are both pretty clear on this.
Nobody has said Bedard is terrible, but he's absolutely a defensive liability and is a big reason why the Hawks bleed goals against at 5v5.
Age does factor in, but you can't take player A with 12 goals and 29 pts (0.55ppg) and compared to player B with 27 goals and 51 pts (0.93ppg) and boost player A to the award because he's younger than player B. If player A had 25 goals and 48 pts it might have been different. I look at the age thing as more of a tiebreaker or close to that.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I am 100% sure Bedard will win the Calder, that doesn't mean he would be my pick.
Obvious Fabertism
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Chicago would never sit him, they are trying to win the draft lottery, and he’s helping them get there.
Raw corsi and Fenwick are meaningless when there is uneven PK and PP time allocations. You have to compare each type of situation individually (ES, 4v5, 5v4) if you want data that actually shows meaning. And Corsi and Fenwick are each significantly worse metrics for tracking impact compared to xGF% or even SCF% and HDCF%.
MuckOG
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As I was corrected above, it was Robertson that fans were making the age argument, not Stutzle.
Robertson: 17 g + 28a = 45 pts
Kaprizov: 27g + 24a = 51 pts.
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BHawk21
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Cherry picked stats but not showing them is interesting.
Exactly, look at his post again, responding to someone who said to take offence out what is Bedard better at?
Not sure what the arguments were but for me, the age argument starts going away at some point.....Robertson wasn't 18 years old, or 19 or 20, he was 21 and Kaprisov was 23 (less than 2 year difference).....27 goals is a lot more than 17 as well.
Obvious Fabertism
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What does that mean? I can link you to natural stattrick but I am assuming you are already there. I’m not going to post a bunch of tables here from my phone, Faber is better in literally every category compared to Jones from my quick look at evens.
- Aug 24, 2011
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You're only seeing what you want to see. If that's your takeaway from watching Hawks games (of which i'm sure you've seen maybe 3 of them) then I'll leave you to your fabertism.
You'll have to settle for seeing Chicago winning another Cup most likely instead
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MuckOG
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In the end, it was 5 points that separated them. But the argument was: Robertson's season was more impressive because of his age.
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Perhaps. I will say Chicago isn't a dumpster fire organization like Edmonton, but unless they draft insanely well over the next few seasons, it will be tough to see them hoist the cup just yet.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I wouldn't go that far. Chicago is a better team with Bedard on it. But it's not because of his 5v5 play.
EbonyRaptor
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I think my hypothetical was better than this one. C'mon!
Not defending the idea to take anything out of the equation, but your hypothetical was equally as useless in determing the Calder winner.
You may not have explicitly stated future projections or potential, but bringing it up in the form of a trade inherently requires you to consider it. Because the trade implication goes beyond this year, and presumably with two rookies, goes on for many years after this year. Which is 100% irrelevant to the Calder.
BHawk21
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and yet they are very comparable in every category I actually posted.
So you think the blackhawks would be better off not playing Bedard 5 on 5?
- Apr 27, 2005
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I think they would be better off playing him at wing for now. As a center, he's been roughly replacement level all around, but they would still probably miss him in close games. I feel like if they were a more competitive team he'd probably be playing harder and be a bit more focused defensively.
In the 14 games he missed, their underlying 5v5 possession numbers improved pretty much across the board, even though their actual results lagged (the Hawks shot at only 4.8% at 5v5 during that stretch). Bedard is a highly skilled player who should drive higher oish%, so you'd expect it to be lower without him, but not that much lower.
So yeah, he's really really good offensively, and really really bad defensively (like most teenagers).
But their PP without him was only 4 for 38 (10.5%) vs 17.4% with him. He undoubtedly makes them a better team.
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