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The Predators are on the hunt

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HFpapi

HFpapi

Registered User
Mar 6, 2010
1,673
2,828
Toronto/Amsterdam
A team of intrigue after their massive offseason spending spree. A slow start as this team found its feet was to be expected but they instead fell completely flat and were a colossal disappointment until recently.

It seems however, they've started to hit their stride and have won 4 straight. Too little too late perhaps? A 10 point gap to close for the final wildcard spot this deep into the season might be impossible but they have some of the hottest players in the league right now.

Filip Forsberg: Riding an 8 game point streak. 15 points in those 8 games including 7 in his last 2.

Roman Josi: 6 game point streak with 9 points in those games.

Jonathan Marchessault: 9 game point streak, 12 points during that streak including a 4 point game last night.

Steven Stamkos: 4 game point streak, 6 points in those games, producing much better lately compared to early on.

Too late for the Preds or time to start buying stock?

As I say, they are in a massive hole this deep into the year but look at some of the teams ahead of them. Does anyone think the Flames are a playoff team? Surely they fall back to earth. The Ducks are ahead of them, who knows what happens with the Canucks, they may implode if they have to trade Miller and Boeser. Utah HC and St Louis are actually good teams and will be tough to pass. Kraken I can see falling.
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They started too slow but they look a problem for anyone playing them, even more so if Saros saves a few more shots.

Marchessault had 12 points in October and November (26 games) and since then has 26 points in 20 games. If he continues at that pace he'll be over 90 points on the season.
 
It’s about impossible to gain 10 more points than all the other teams before them
 
BB88 said:
It’s about impossible to gain 10 more points than all the other teams before them
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Very true but one thing they have going for them as I mentioned in the OP is that I can easily see Calgary. Seattle, and Anaheim, shitting the bed down the stretch.

Vancouver, St Louis, and Utah will be tougher to jump but the Canucks are a wild card (figuratively and almost literally) due to the Miller/Boeser situations being in flux.
 
To hit 92 points, the cutoff for the Caps last year, they would need to play at a 116 point pace the rest of the season. The current President's Trophy leaders, the Capitals, are playing at a 120 point pace. Winnipeg is at 111, Vegas is at 108.

10 points is a massive gap in the NHL. Lets say they have another U2-esque streak and go 16-0-2 over the next 18 games. If Calgary goes just 9-5-4 (pretty close to their pace so far), Nashville will end up only 2 points ahead with one extra game played. They would need to be the best team in hockey over the remaining ~35 games and have none of Calgary, Vancouver, and St. Louis improve on their current pace. It's not happening
 
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Iwishihadaspacebar said:
They started too slow but they look a problem for anyone playing them, even more so if Saros saves a few more shots.

Marchessault had 12 points in October and November (26 games) and since then has 26 points in 20 games. If he continues at that pace he'll be over 90 points on the season.
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Not saying he can’t do it, but continuing that pace doesn’t get him over 90pts
 
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HFpapi said:
Very true but one thing they have going for them as I mentioned in the OP is that I can easily see Calgary. Seattle, and Anaheim, shitting the bed down the stretch.

Vancouver, St Louis, and Utah will be tougher to jump but the Canucks are a wild card (figuratively and almost literally) due to the Miller/Boeser situations being in flux.
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Unfortunately for them none of those teams except for Calgary, who has 10 more points, are even in playoff spots. So even if Nashville somehow made a next to impossible jump in the standings, they would barely be in a playoff spot.
 
Good that the Preds are playing well but you should take one game at a time given your team’s position right now.
 
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I think it's too far, but honestly, it's kind of reassuring because this is basically the same team we will have next year. I will feel better if they actually play strong hockey and miss the playoffs in a close chase down scenario vs. floating in no man's land without any idea of what will change. Stamkos is actually showing he's got something left in the tank at center and March has been exactly what we thought we signed, just 6 weeks too late.

If nothing else it gives a little more intrigue to the games, but alas we will certainly hear about the potential early picks we will miss out on when we are drafting in the teens.
 
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Forsberg is such a beast, glad to see him shake off the slow start.

Still a wonky team construction IMO but they were clearly playing so far below their talent level that a surge was inevitable. A surge to where can be argued as far as this season goes but given the number of key veterans (Josi, Saros, Forsberg, ROR) and big contracts (Marchy, Stammer, Skjei) not going anywhere - I think establishing some identity and consistency and good vibes could give them hope that they can start to become what was envisioned in year two of this project.
 
I’m gonna go against the grain and say that what we’re seeing right now is the “real” Predators and they’re fully capable of making a chase of it until the very end. We’ve seen similar runs before.

The question is whether they stay healthy and everyone stays locked in for the next 3 months. That can be harder than it sounds, especially when even a short losing streak can be the dagger.
 
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Seems like once teams are more or less locked into their playoff seeds they tend to go on cruise control and are more likely to lose to a hungry team in “must-win” mode. At the same time you have former bubble teams end up as TDL sellers, and those games get easier too.

It’s exceedingly unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. Moneypuck has them at a 5.2% chance of making the playoffs. IIRC the Caps were around 8% at one point last year with the toughest 2nd half SOS, and still managed to squeak in. But it took a simultaneous collapse by DRW (multiple losing streaks including 7 in a row) to make it happen. I don’t see a more seasoned Calgary team imploding like that.
 
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