The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[Stealth JD]

If I'm Holloway's agent, I'm bringing two things to the next contract negotiation:

1. A WOWY chart for Holloway
2. A sticky note with a number between $8-$10 mil written on it.

I don't think they'd even have to say anything.

And if I’m Army/Steen, I’m showing up with his list of injuries and missed time and giving him an offer for $60M over 8-years ($7.5M/yr) and daring him to walk away from a lifetime of financial security, which could go *poof* if he sustains another serious injury.

 

[SirPaste]

If we cant beat Seattle and Utah with our season on the line, maybe we don't deserve to get in playoffs anyways. That's the new perspective I'm taking.

Bingo

 

[Brian39]

The rebuild is complete, the pipeline is full of young talent, and next year promises to be a great season. All is well in Blues world.

I still think to complete the re-whatever we will have to add a 2C/3C and a top 4 RD (+maybe another RD in case we move Faulk).

I fully expect Army to be aggressive in the offseason and either fill those spots in UFA or trades as the team has shown enough signs that our window of opportunity will open soon. Adding the mentioned 2/3 players might give us just enough of a push to do that. The more I think of it, the more I expect us NOT to pick in the 1st-round next draft.

It's weird, because if we continue our play from before the 4-nations, I definitely think we would have a totally different offseason.

I think that both of these statements/opinions are equally true.

The 'total asset accumulation' phase of building a winner where you're sellers, stockpiling picks/prospects, and shifting from old to young has ended. Now we've moved into the phase where we are taking the assets we have and trying to turn them into tangible roster solutions. We're early into this phase, but this is the phase that even the really good teams are in while trying to contend. There aren't perfect teams in the NHL and everyone has holes. We have more holes than the elite teams in the league and we're not really ready to fill those holes with rentals. But since we are early on, we also have way more assets available to make a larger spend to fill to more permanently fill those holes.

Barring disaster, this team is going to be focused on winning as many games as they can next year. We're not going to push all the chips in for a 1 year solution and we'll still prioritize younger players. But next year will definitely be a year where 'what you are' is more important than 'what you could be in a few years' when evaluating what to do with picks/prospects.

 

[BrokenFace]

Not rebuilding anymore, just building. Sometimes that will mean getting future value for a veteran, but we're primarily building upon this foundation to make us a contender.

Assuming Holloway's injury is something that he'll be fully recovered from by the start of next season, I'd be happy signing him to an 8 year extension at $9 million per. With the rising cap, even snagging him at 10 might be a deal in a few years. Having him, Thomas, and Kyrou all on very manageable contracts gives us so much flexibility with trades or contracts for the younger guys who stick.

 

[joe galiba]

This is a great thread about confirming to group think or get called out. Someone cue up Subdivisions by Rush.

I'm with the outliers here in being worried about the Blues. Their game has fallen apart lately so I'm concerned. The Wild a few weeks ago looked similar, but they appear to be ramping up their game. Having their superstars return helps a lot. Odds are the Blues get it together and get the job done, but they are getting sloppy, so that doesn't bode well for the 1st round. I certainly wouldn't be shocked if we lost one (or shockingly both) of the next two and have to rely on others for our fate.

I hope for the best, but I won't pretend to be blind to what I am seeing. Lack of energy, sloppy on D, and a reduction in fore checking are some of the things that are hobbling this team right now. We used up our "luck" credits during the 12-game run, so I'm worried that we may play well in a game but come up short due to an unlucky bounce or a bad call or two. We are due for some bad luck, just a hunch.

I think we could handle Parayko being injured all this time, but losing Holloway has taken an impactful amount of energy and skill out of our team. It's now really showing.

Bigger view, back in December we were talking off season and not post season, so this 12-game streak gives us an idea of what we are capable of. We might be a few years early, but it's good to see that this team can be impactful.

Opinions all provided
The future pre-decided
Detached and subdivided
In the mass production zone
Nowhere is the dreamer
Or the misfit so alone

 

[Thallis]

The rebuild is complete, the pipeline is full of young talent, and next year promises to be a great season. All is well in Blues world.

Making the playoffs this year would be huge, and missing out will make a lot of players angry and more dedicated than ever to put in the hard work in the off-season.

Losing Holloway shows how important he is in every aspect of the game. He could have been the difference maker in the Winnipeg and Edmonton games.

Still hopeful - but concerned. Let's get this playoff spot clinched, by whatever means necessary.

Be careful getting too high on our future based on an anomaly. In 2018, Buffalo Sabres won 10 in a row against stronger competition with "stronger" pieces in their prospect pool. Our pipeline is still thin on D and our top 3 defensemen are on the wrong side of 30. Cam Fowler has made the biggest difference this season and is 33 and playing at a level he hasn't hit in over 7 years. There are legitimate reasons to think this turnaround isn't necessarily a fluke: the underlyings have been legitimately good since the coaching change/Fowler trade, but declaring the rebuild over seems premature when our record this year has been mostly just us beating up on the worst teams in the conference (14-1-1 vs the bottom 5 teams in the west and 15-19-4 vs playoff teams, 14-14-4 since Monty took over).

 

[Brian39]

Not rebuilding anymore, just building. Sometimes that will mean getting future value for a veteran, but we're primarily building upon this foundation to make us a contender.

Assuming Holloway's injury is something that he'll be fully recovered from by the start of next season, I'd be happy signing him to an 8 year extension at $9 million per. With the rising cap, even snagging him at 10 might be a deal in a few years. Having him, Thomas, and Kyrou all on very manageable contracts gives us so much flexibility with trades or contracts for the younger guys who stick.

I'm not eager to go $9M x 8 following just one (really) good season. I'd want some type of actual discount from his current market value and I don't see that at $9M. There should be some level of good will and recognition for the contract and opportunity we provided him and I'm not really sold that he has a super high odds of getting himself into position to go much north of $9M based on his play next season. Statistically, he's behind the Kyrou/Thomas explosion season that preceded their $8.125M x 8 and both of them had a bit larger/better NHL track record preceding the big year. I understand the rising cap increasing AAVs, but if I'm the Blues I'd be pretty hesitant to just happily/quickly give him a deal that is noticeably more money than those two.

If he wants a contract in the 9s, I'd be content making him go earn that contract next season.

If I were the Blues, I'd be trying really hard to sign him to $8.125M x 8 with identical structure to the Thomas/Kyrou contracts. I wouldn't be upset/annoyed at the player for declining, but that's a perfectly reasonable offer given his less-proven resume and the context of how we got him to our roster and a top 6 opportunity. Again, the player may not go for it, but I also think that there is a reasonable "$8.125M is the ceiling for our core forwards right now" argument. Even if we don't get it done at that price, I think there is value in trying to hold to that line for this summer.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I still think to complete the re-whatever we will have to add a 2C/3C and a top 4 RD (+maybe another RD in case we move Faulk).

I fully expect Army to be aggressive in the offseason and either fill those spots in UFA or trades as the team has shown enough signs that our window of opportunity will open soon. Adding the mentioned 2/3 players might give us just enough of a push to do that. The more I think of it, the more I expect us NOT to pick in the 1st-round next draft.

It's weird, because if we continue our play from before the 4-nations, I definitely think we would have a totally different offseason.

I want Faulk gone. He's admirably passed his expiration date. I didn't think he'd last this long or be as good as he was for a good length of time until recently.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I think that both of these statements/opinions are equally true.

The 'total asset accumulation' phase of building a winner where you're sellers, stockpiling picks/prospects, and shifting from old to young has ended. Now we've moved into the phase where we are taking the assets we have and trying to turn them into tangible roster solutions. We're early into this phase, but this is the phase that even the really good teams are in while trying to contend. There aren't perfect teams in the NHL and everyone has holes. We have more holes than the elite teams in the league and we're not really ready to fill those holes with rentals. But since we are early on, we also have way more assets available to make a larger spend to fill to more permanently fill those holes.

Barring disaster, this team is going to be focused on winning as many games as they can next year. We're not going to push all the chips in for a 1 year solution and we'll still prioritize younger players. But next year will definitely be a year where 'what you are' is more important than 'what you could be in a few years' when evaluating what to do with picks/prospects.

This is the phase that Armstrong aced last time. There are lots of GMs that make deals and are good at asset accumulation. But many teams don’t take the next step.

Armstrong had the right instincts about trading Stastny (when to take a step back) and when to pull the trigger on deals like ROR where he parted with a valuable asset (Tate Thompson and more). One of the hallmarks has been patience.

He took some time to find Bouwmeester. The need was identified, but he didn’t pull the trigger right away. Same thing with the Center. He was willing to go with Bozak and keep incrementally improving the roster before the bigger deal was there.

If Steen has anything to prove, roster construction through this phase is the biggest question mark.

 

[BrokenFace]

I'm not eager to go $9M x 8 following just one (really) good season. I'd want some type of actual discount from his current market value and I don't see that at $9M. There should be some level of good will and recognition for the contract and opportunity we provided him and I'm not really sold that he has a super high odds of getting himself into position to go much north of $9M based on his play next season. Statistically, he's behind the Kyrou/Thomas explosion season that preceded their $8.125M x 8 and both of them had a bit larger/better NHL track record preceding the big year. I understand the rising cap increasing AAVs, but if I'm the Blues I'd be pretty hesitant to just happily/quickly give him a deal that is noticeably more money than those two.

If he wants a contract in the 9s, I'd be content making him go earn that contract next season.

If I were the Blues, I'd be trying really hard to sign him to $8.125M x 8 with identical structure to the Thomas/Kyrou contracts. I wouldn't be upset/annoyed at the player for declining, but that's a perfectly reasonable offer given his less-proven resume and the context of how we got him to our roster and a top 6 opportunity. Again, the player may not go for it, but I also think that there is a reasonable "$8.125M is the ceiling for our core forwards right now" argument. Even if we don't get it done at that price, I think there is value in trying to hold to that line for this summer.

With the projected cap increases coming up, I'm thinking agents aren't going to be held back by internal cap ceilings for players. To be clear, I wouldn't be in favor of this with a regular cap environment, but I just like the idea of locking up good players when the cap is spiking.

 

[Ranksu]

What games I have watched Faulk has been really big problem on our own end.

Hopefully he doesnt cost us games and series.

 

[Beauterham]

I want Faulk gone. He's admirably passed his expiration date. I didn't think he'd last this long or be as good as he was for a good length of time until recently.

Gone or not, I'm fine with both. But if he does stay It shouldn't be in a top-4 role anymore and that means we've acquired an upgrade on RD.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Gone or not, I'm fine with both. But if he does stay It shouldn't be in a top-4 role anymore and that means we've acquired an upgrade on RD.

Agreed

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

The defenseman I most want to move on from is Nick Leddy, not Justin Faulk. Faulk is hitting the wall hard, but aside from Matt Kessel, we don't have anyone in-house who can really step in and take his minutes. Nick Leddy is just straight up redundant, and we have guys ready right now to take his spot. We made a mistake trading for him in 2022, and then another one signing him to a new contract. It's time to go our separate ways.

 

[execwrite1]

I hate to bring this up but since we're talking about the future and next year ...

Can Krug blow up the whole cap picture if he comes back?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I hate to bring this up but since we're talking about the future and next year ...

Can Krug blow up the whole cap picture if he comes back?

How so? Per Puckpedia We have 24 out of 23 players signed with 7Mil in Cap space WITH him counting towards the cap with only Hofer needing to be signed. Leddy, Faulk, Krug and Schenn all have a MNTC starting on July 1st. Texier and Joseph both make 2-3mil each with only a year left and no trade protection. Only thing that happens if Krug comes back is either him or Leddy gets traded.

 

[BlueDream]

I hate to bring this up but since we're talking about the future and next year ...

Can Krug blow up the whole cap picture if he comes back?

He won’t come back.

Armstrong was recently on Spittin Chiclets and he declined to get into Schenn’s no-trade situation but pivoted to talk about Krug’s, “since he’s not playing anymore.” That was his quote and I didn’t think I was reading too much into it because he made it sound like a guy that is done for good.

Following that up, JR just said in his mailbag today that he’s “been told that Krug’s career is likely over.”

Even if he did somehow beat the odds, I have to imagine the Blues would probably send him to the AHL and make him prove himself for a while. I don’t see him being on their roster.

 

[Beninnola]

How I would coach:

Blues cheat code to make the playoffs.

Seattle and Utah are ready for the offseason. They have tee times in luxurious places, plans with family, good times ahead.

Sure would be a shame to have a bunch of doctors appointments instead.

The closer the score gets to a 2 goal blues lead, the less physical the blues play.

Every goal that puts the playoffs in question; the blues play substantially more physical.

Tied? Opponents will feel it. Opposing teams take the lead? Gonna probably have some pending stl supplemental discipline. Expand the lead? Time to break things.

Seattle and Utah can decide how far they want things to go. We really don’t need a 50+ penalty minute game. They really don’t need a 50+ penalty minute game. Nobody wants to spend the summer on Ltir.

I feel we can force them to surrender the 2 points.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

How I would coach:

Blues cheat code to make the playoffs.

Seattle and Utah are ready for the offseason. They have tee times in luxurious places, plans with family, good times ahead.

Sure would be a shame to have a bunch of doctors appointments instead.

The closer the score gets to a 2 goal blues lead, the less physical the blues play.

Every goal that puts the playoffs in question; the blues play substantially more physical.

Tied? Opponents will feel it. Opposing teams take the lead? Gonna probably have some pending stl supplemental discipline. Expand the lead? Time to break things.

Seattle and Utah can decide how far they want things to go. We really don’t need a 50+ penalty minute game. They really don’t need a 50+ penalty minute game. Nobody wants to spend the summer on Ltir.

I feel we can force them to surrender the 2 points.

“Sure would be a shame to have a bunch of doctors appointments instead” made me almost spit out my margarita that I’m drinking between getting off work and going home LOL

 

[Beninnola]

“Sure would be a shame to have a bunch of doctors appointments instead” made me almost spit out my margarita that I’m drinking between getting off work and going home LOL

Leverage comes in all shapes and sizes

I’m sure both those teams want a good hard game, they’re fighting for jobs, they’re not interested in letting anybody beat them ever.

They don’t want to fight for their lives, to go to the places that the darkest parts of hockey go to.

Honest proposition for them then - play a good hard game, give us our 2 points, or fight for your life. Your choice. Maybe it’s a bluff. Maybe it isn’t.

 

[Blanick]

Man reading the last few pages of this thread has been a crazy ride. Some of you all really just need to take a deep breathe.

For tonight as gross as it will feel we have to cheer for a Wild win in regulation. That likely ends or chance at WC1 but puts us in a situation where a single Blues win or Flames loss means the Blues get in.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

Be careful getting too high on our future based on an anomaly. In 2018, Buffalo Sabres won 10 in a row against stronger competition with "stronger" pieces in their prospect pool. Our pipeline is still thin on D and our top 3 defensemen are on the wrong side of 30. Cam Fowler has made the biggest difference this season and is 33 and playing at a level he hasn't hit in over 7 years. There are legitimate reasons to think this turnaround isn't necessarily a fluke: the underlyings have been legitimately good since the coaching change/Fowler trade, but declaring the rebuild over seems premature when our record this year has been mostly just us beating up on the worst teams in the conference (14-1-1 vs the bottom 5 teams in the west and 15-19-4 vs playoff teams, 14-14-4 since Monty took over).

The counter point to this is that a lot of the "top teams" are also there for beating up on the bottom feeders and they also lack depth and have holes in their lineups. Ive watched more hockey in the past couple weeks than the entire season to this point. I don't see any teams in the WCF (other than maybe Vegas, who the TV said the Blues have done well against this year) that would be clear favorites against the Blues. If they stay healthy I like their chances to make the final. Its the Florida teams and the Caps(? still no idea how their record is that good because they should suck) that I think are the biggest threats.

I know your post was more focused on the overall build/rebuild than just this years playoffs, but I feel like the team being on par with the other playoff teams in the conference can be considered 'good enough' to remove the 'rebuild' label.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Opinions all provided
The future pre-decided
Detached and subdivided
In the mass production zone
Nowhere is the dreamer
Or the misfit so alone

Tonight is going to be the Tim Malloys singing, "Armored Cars and tanks and guns came to take away our sons..."

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Man reading the last few pages of this thread has been a crazy ride. Some of you all really just need to take a deep breathe.

For tonight as gross as it will feel we have to cheer for a Wild win in regulation. That likely ends or chance at WC1 but puts us in a situation where a single Blues win or Flames loss means the Blues get in.

I can get happy about either team winning in regulation, although Minnesota would still have the tiebreaker on us if Calgary wins. Really, all the Blues have to do is get their points and this outcome tonight becomes irrelevant.

 

[TheDizee]

Seattle has had a really bad year and Utah plays us on the 2nd of B2B, there is no reason we should not be able to get these last 4 points.