The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[WeWentBlues]

This will be a close thing between the Flames, the Wild, and the Blues.

Our schedule is harder over the next few days. Those other teams might catch us.

Unless the winning streak continues against good teams (e.g. Avs, Jets, Vegas), I think we might come away wishing we won a few more easy matchups back in Nov & Dec. I'm not convinced we make it. The Fames and Wild are not fading.

Been thinking the same, especially after watching the Flames dominate the Ducks without breaking much of a sweat.

Legitimately concerned we have to keep winning to get in. The one silver lining is that Calgary and Minnesota have to play each other still. Assuming there is a winner in regulation, our magic number will go down by 2 and worst case scenario if it goes to OT, magic number will go down by 1.

 

[SirPaste]

Then we have to watch some late start games.

We will be watching late start games either way

 

[WeWentBlues]

Okay, had to get into the spreadsheets to help visualize the next two weeks. I think Blues realistically need to win 2 of the remaining 5.

 

[pseudoswede]

Not that it's important, but it's interesting how the Blues have barely moved on anyone's NHL Power Rankings list this week (around 12th). I guess all of the movement happened last week.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

This will be a close thing between the Flames, the Wild, and the Blues.

Our schedule is harder over the next few days. Those other teams might catch us.

Unless the winning streak continues against good teams (e.g. Avs, Jets, Vegas), I think we might come away wishing we won a few more easy matchups back in Nov & Dec. I'm not convinced we make it. The Fames and Wild are not fading.

The two teams we're contending with play each other. That's a huge advantage. Not sure if Vancouver is dead in the water yet, but Minnesota has to play them too. I have a hard time seeing the Blues finish behind both Minnesota and Calgary.

The Wild have acquired 8 of their last 20 possible points. They have 12 more points possible.

The Blues have 5 games left and would have to go .500 from here to probably get in comfortably. If they lose 3 straight in regulation, it could get dicey.

The unknown factor is for some of these teams that have secured playoff spots. Usually we start to see veteran guys getting maintenance days and a lower intensity as they prepare for the post-season. How that affects the end of the race is unclear.

 

[ds774622]

This will be a close thing between the Flames, the Wild, and the Blues.

Our schedule is harder over the next few days. Those other teams might catch us.

Unless the winning streak continues against good teams (e.g. Avs, Jets, Vegas), I think we might come away wishing we won a few more easy matchups back in Nov & Dec. I'm not convinced we make it. The Fames and Wild are not fading.

Let's look at this objectively (and I'm bored at work).

CGY's win percentage to date is .560; so with seven games left, their probability of going 7-0-0 and reaching 98 points is 0.56^7, or 1.7%. That would require STL going 3-2-0 (or 3-1-1 and losing out on that first tie breaker that Yappi is talking about in this unlikely scenario). But since CGY won last night, this would actually be an eight game streak to end the season, which is about a 1% chance of happening. I'm going to skip a lot of math here, but STL's chance of winning exactly zero out of five is 1.1%; winning exactly one game is 8.3%; two games 23.1%; three games 34.5%; four games 24.9%; and five out of five is 7.2%. So STL winning three or less of their remaining games has a probability of (1.1 + 8.3 + 23.1 + 34.5) 67.8%. Makes sense since going .600 to end the season exceeds our points percentage of 0.591 to date.

But the probability of BOTH events happening is 1% times 67.8%, or 0.7%. Now I have to repeat all that for CGY to go 6-1-0 and STL to go 2-3-0. So 9.5% chance for CGY, and (1.1 + 8.3 + 23.1) 33.3% for STL to win two or less. Probability of both events happening is 3.2%. Now could CGY go a more realistic 5-2-0? Sure, but then STL would need to lose four out of five. All this to say that how unlikely it is for CGY to catch us.

Just to be thorough, prior to this eleven game win streak, STL's win percentage was 0.523, leaving a probability of going 11-0-0 at 0.08%. That's about 1,250 to 1 odds. Not improbable, but also not a bet I'd take. It's been a while since I've done discrete math, solving n choose k problems and binomial coefficients, but y'all get the gist of how solid a footing STL is on for making it into the playoffs.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Shouldn’t 99 points be the current magic number to clinch a spot? There’s still a way for Calgary to run the table and get 98 pts, while also being ahead on RW.

OK, I looked at it again. Say Calgary wins out:
That would put them at 98 points and 34 RW (currently 27).

The Blues currently have 91 points and 30 RW, 5 games left.

To tie at 98, the Blues have to get 7 of 10 points. Probably 3 wins (which could be shoot-out and not improve the tie-breaker).

Its closer than I thought. I've been tracking the tiebreakers in my chart, including the 2nd tiebreaker with ROW. This bears keeping an eye on it. I could actually create a magic number just for RW for when Calgary can no longer win the tiebreaker!

However, the more likely scenario is for Calgary to not win out in regulation, even if they manage to get the points. I suspect the RW magic number will fail before their playoff magic number does.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I predict the Blues winning streak will end and some parts of the board will melt down and think they'll miss the playoffs based on one game. Honestly, they probably should have lost last night.

When does Parayko come back?

 

[Brian39]

Minnesota only faces one playoff team (home against Dallas) the rest of the way with 5 matchups with teams outside the cutoff line. Even without Eriksson-Ek and Kaprizov they could pick up 10 of 12 remaining points.

It will be interesting to see if the Blues can hang onto WC1 or land in WC2. Holloway’s injury, if severe, could be a big one for the Blues playoff success. If given the choice between Dallas, Vegas or Winnipeg I think I’d prefer to face the one that hasn’t had any recent playoff success…and not the ones who have had deep runs to the Final.

They could.

But they are 2-2-2 in the 6 games they played against teams below the playoff cutline in the last 4 weeks. The wins came against Seattle and Buffalo, who are further down the standings than 4 of the 5 non-playoff teams left on their schedule. In the same stretch, they also went 0-1-1 against a Hughes/Hamilton-less Devils team that is above the playoff cut line but below the Wild in the standings. Again, they could bank a good chunk of points against this soft schedule to close out the season. But their recent play has them pretty far from a lock to pencil in 2 points from every soft matchup.

The race in the Pacific Division 1 is starting to get really interesting. LA is suddenly only 3 points behind Vegas and both teams have 7 games left. LA's 28-4-4 home record is best in the league and 5 of their remaining 7 games are at home. Vegas is also noticeably better at home than on the road, but only 2 of their remaining 7 games are at home. Edmonton is 2 back of LA and 3 back of Vegas. They have more of an uphill battle, but they play LA twice down the stretch, which at least puts them in control of their destiny in regards to jumping Edmonton.

LA has gotten themselves almost as close to Vegas as Dallas is to Winnipeg. Given their ludicrous home record and 5 remaining home games, I think we need to start including them in the conversation of potential opponents.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I don't really have a preference between Winnipeg, Dallas, and Vegas, but I would definitely prefer to play an L.A. Kings team who's been a rollercoaster of offense this season. Blues are 1-2 against L.A. this season but the loss was a 2-1 OT loss on the back half of a B2B.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

We will be watching late start games either way

Unless we end up playing Dallas or Winnipeg. Those are early starts unless they get bumped for the big city market games. Either way, the four teams still in play for us to face in the first (assuming we make the playoffs), are Vegas/LA and WPG/Dallas, with the most likely being Vegas or WPG based on current standings. Kings have pulled within 3 points of VGK though, with each team having 7 games left. WPG continues to lead Dallas by 4 points and appears poised to hang on.

 

[BrokenFace]

Then we have to watch some late start games.

They give us 8:30 weekday starts when when we play Minnesota in the first round

 

[SirPaste]

Unless we end up playing Dallas or Winnipeg. Those are early starts unless they get bumped for the big city market games. Either way, the four teams still in play for us to face in the first (assuming we make the playoffs), are Vegas/LA and WPG/Dallas, with the most likely being Vegas or WPG based on current standings. Kings have pulled within 3 points of VGK though, with each team having 7 games left. WPG continues to lead Dallas by 4 points and appears poised to hang on.

Western Conference first round is always late no matter who is playing most of the time. Last time we played Winnipeg most those games were all late.

 

[Brian39]

Unless we end up playing Dallas or Winnipeg. Those are early starts unless they get bumped for the big city market games. Either way, the four teams still in play for us to face in the first (assuming we make the playoffs), are Vegas/LA and WPG/Dallas, with the most likely being Vegas or WPG based on current standings. Kings have pulled within 3 points of VGK though, with each team having 7 games left. WPG continues to lead Dallas by 4 points and appears poised to hang on.

They will still be mostly late starts. All the TV partners want to run double headers in the 1st round, which means the Eastern Conference gets the early game and then the Western Conference game starts after regulation of the first game ends. I was in the Enterprise Center for an 8:50 weeknight start against Minnesota in 2022. It was listed as an 8:30 start, but puck drop was pushed about 15 minutes for TV as the early game went long.

The Central time zone teams get absolutely screwed on playoff start times.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I want Vegas. Not because I think they are easy or anything but because it's something different and new. That's all.

I cam get behind that. This divisional playoff format sucks

 

[Killakirillthethrill]

Terrible news! Hope its short term

 

[Mike Liut]

Please no acl or anything serious

 

[DatDude44]

Sounds like Holloway is just DTD, nothing too serious. Sucks we won't have Holloway or Parakyo for what should be our two toughest matchups the rest of the season. That said, will be fun to see snuggerud with opportunity to step up with thomas. Both of their skillsets and hockey brains should work well together. Gotta bet snuggy goal tomorrow haha

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Terrible news! Hope its short term

Appears to be short term.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

The two teams we're contending with play each other. That's a huge advantage. Not sure if Vancouver is dead in the water yet, but Minnesota has to play them too. I have a hard time seeing the Blues finish behind both Minnesota and Calgary.

The Wild have acquired 8 of their last 20 possible points. They have 12 more points possible.

The Blues have 5 games left and would have to go .500 from here to probably get in comfortably. If they lose 3 straight in regulation, it could get dicey.

The unknown factor is for some of these teams that have secured playoff spots. Usually we start to see veteran guys getting maintenance days and a lower intensity as they prepare for the post-season. How that affects the end of the race is unclear.

Canucks are definitely dead. If the blues won 2 games in regulation and lost the other 3 in regulation, vancouver would have to win all 7 games in rehulation to catch us. Shoot, even if our 2 wins werent regulation, vancouver would have to still win all 7. If we go 1-4 with a regulation win, vancouver needs to go 6-1 with 6 rehulation wins.

Calgary has a slim shot still but vancouver is dead except mathematically

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

Appears to be short term.

Saw a tweet that he is now week to week. Playoffs start on 4/19, so he could potentially be out the rest of the season (2 weeks). Sorry, can only add the pic as Rutherford blocked me a while back for questioning his supposed infinite wisdom!!

Hoping that Minny or CGY don’t both go on heaters like we have, as they have soft schedules. At least they play each other once, so that helps.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Saw a tweet that he is now week to week. Playoffs start on 4/19, so he could potentially be out the rest of the season (2 weeks). Sorry, can only add the pic as Rutherford blocked me a while back for questioning his supposed infinite wisdom!!

Hoping that Minny or CGY don’t both go on heaters like we have, as they have soft schedules. At least they play each other once, so that helps.

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Is what it is. Just gives him more rest and treatment for other nagging pains.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Not that it's important, but it's interesting how the Blues have barely moved on anyone's NHL Power Rankings list this week (around 12th). I guess all of the movement happened last week.

Amazing winning streak but haven't really been beating the leagues best, i think somewhere around 10-13 is reasonable.

 

[Unholy]

Gonna be on your wagon folks, pls keep it going and take Fowler the distance *salutes*

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Amazing winning streak but haven't really been beating the leagues best, i think somewhere around 10-13 is reasonable.

Saw one earlier this week that had the Blues at #10. Can't for the life of me remember which site it was though.