Toggle sidebar

The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

  • We sincerely apologize for the extended downtime. Our hosting provider, XenForo Cloud, encountered a major issue with their backup system, which unfortunately resulted in the loss of some critical data from the past year.

    What This Means for You:

    • If you created an account after March 2024, it no longer exists. You will need to sign up again to access the forum.
    • If you registered before March 2024 but changed your email, username, or password in the past year, those changes were lost. You’ll need to update your account details manually once you're logged in.
    • Threads and posts created within the last year have been restored.

    Our team is working with Xenforo Cloud to recover data using backups, sitemaps, and other available resources. We know this is frustrating, and we deeply regret the impact on our community. We are taking steps with Xenforo Cloud to ensure this never happens again. This is work in progress. Thank you for your patience and support as we work through this.

    In the meantime, feel free to join our Discord Server
Brian39 said:
I think there is a legitimate argument that the current D (with Parayko) is on par or close to the 2019 group. It is constructed differently and is weaker in areas, but it is also stronger in areas.

The top 3 isn't as good. Petro, Parayko, J-Bo is just an overall better group than Parayko, Fowler, Broberg. I'm not going to make a case that Parayko, Fowler, and Broberg will give you 25+, 25, and 23 minutes as good as Petro, Parayko, and Bo did in the 2019 playoffs. And the current group doesn't have a pair that can as effectively play the 'matchup shut down' role that Bo-Parayko played. I also don't think that any of the three will provide the performance Petro did in the 2019 playoffs. If the strength/value/quality of the groups ends at the comparison of the top 3, then 2019 is absolutely better overall.

But our current top 3 does have significantly more offensive pop than the top 3 in 2019. Petro was the only guy who cracked 30 points out of that trio and the three of them combined for 26 goals and 86 points in the regular season (in 229 combined games played). Parayko, Fowler, and Broberg currently have combined for 30 goals and 89 points through 164 combined games played. I know offense is up around the league, but they've outscored the 2019 top 3 in 65 fewer games played. That's a huge gap. Dunn's 12 goals dwarf's Faulk's 4 this year, but Faulk is currently only 3 points behind Dunn's season-long total in 2019 and will likely match or eclipse Dunn's point total by the end of the year. All in all, while the top of our D group doesn't have the shut down ability the 2019 group did, they also are way more involved in the offense than the 2019 group was. The current blueline's ability to engage in the offensive zone without allowing rushes the other way is a big part of this team's identity that didn't exist at nearly the level of effectiveness in 2019.

Additionally, I think the bottom half of our current D is absolutely better than the bottom half of the 2019 group. The big 3 that year was good enough that we got away with really sheltering the bottom half of the D group, but it is kind of easy to forget just how much we relied on those 3 horses to carry the load. They were our only D who played 17+ minutes a night in the 2019 playoffs. They were also the only 3 D who played 20+ minutes a night in the regular season. We had to mix-and-match partners with Petro and Petro was the level of player that could still be a stud through that mixing and matching. But we didn't have a defined, consistent top pair that was out there together in all situations. Eddy was on the top pair some nights and a healthy scratch other nights. Petro got multiple shifts every night with someone other than his 'usual' partner and his 'usual partner wasn't consistent. And then we really limited the minutes of the 3rd pair.

Faulk (for all his warts) is a better overall player than any of Gunnar, Dunn, Eddy, and Bortz was at that stage of their careers.

Suter is more capable of soaking up minutes effectively than Gunnar, Eddy, or Bortz.

While Leddy and Tucker are both playing their off side as the 3RD, I think that both are comfortably relied on to provide more than the 12:19 Berube trusted Bortz to handle in the 17 games he was in the lineup in the playoffs and there were 9 playoff games where we had a LHD as the 3RD in that run.

I think there is a noticeable gap between the current #4-7 D men and the 2019 #4-7. There are plenty of Cup winners who have had success leaning extra-heavy on the top 4 while only using the 3rd pair to soak up enough minutes to let those guys catch their breath. Our 2019 team certainly wasn't unique for doing that and the coaching staff handled the 4-7 guys beautifully in our Cup run. But there is also a tangible advantage to having a 3rd pair that doesn't scare the hell out of the coach.

I'm not going to say that someone is wrong if they feel the 2019 D group was better than the current group, but I think that there is a real argument that the current groups is as good overall and even if you disagree, the gap isn't massive. The 2019 team was 2nd in expected goals against per 60 after Berube took over. The current team is also 2nd since Monty took over. Parayko is having a career year and the additions of Broberg/Fowler have turned this blueline into a damn good group. The style and strengths of our current D group is different than the 2019 group, but I'm not sold that it is definitively worse.
Click to expand...
For me, the shut down pair of Bouwneester and Parayko is missing. I remember Dallas trailing in an elimination game and only getting 2 shots on goal the entire 2nd period. I don’t think this team can manage that kind of dominance yet.

It’s worth noting that we are comparing this improving group to a Cup winning team at its peak. It’s a high bar.
 
Stupendous Yappi said:
For me, the shut down pair of Bouwneester and Parayko is missing. I remember Dallas trailing in an elimination game and only getting 2 shots on goal the entire 2nd period. I don’t think this team can manage that kind of dominance yet.

It’s worth noting that we are comparing this improving group to a Cup winning team at its peak. It’s a high bar.
Click to expand...
Agree. However, Fowler and Parayko might be as close as you can get to Jbo-Parayko.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mike Liut
Brian39 said:
I think there is a legitimate argument that the current D (with Parayko) is on par or close to the 2019 group. It is constructed differently and is weaker in areas, but it is also stronger in areas.

The top 3 isn't as good. Petro, Parayko, J-Bo is just an overall better group than Parayko, Fowler, Broberg. I'm not going to make a case that Parayko, Fowler, and Broberg will give you 25+, 25, and 23 minutes as good as Petro, Parayko, and Bo did in the 2019 playoffs. And the current group doesn't have a pair that can as effectively play the 'matchup shut down' role that Bo-Parayko played. I also don't think that any of the three will provide the performance Petro did in the 2019 playoffs. If the strength/value/quality of the groups ends at the comparison of the top 3, then 2019 is absolutely better overall.

But our current top 3 does have significantly more offensive pop than the top 3 in 2019. Petro was the only guy who cracked 30 points out of that trio and the three of them combined for 26 goals and 86 points in the regular season (in 229 combined games played). Parayko, Fowler, and Broberg currently have combined for 30 goals and 89 points through 164 combined games played. I know offense is up around the league, but they've outscored the 2019 top 3 in 65 fewer games played. That's a huge gap. Dunn's 12 goals dwarf's Faulk's 4 this year, but Faulk is currently only 3 points behind Dunn's season-long total in 2019 and will likely match or eclipse Dunn's point total by the end of the year. All in all, while the top of our D group doesn't have the shut down ability the 2019 group did, they also are way more involved in the offense than the 2019 group was. The current blueline's ability to engage in the offensive zone without allowing rushes the other way is a big part of this team's identity that didn't exist at nearly the level of effectiveness in 2019.

Additionally, I think the bottom half of our current D is absolutely better than the bottom half of the 2019 group. The big 3 that year was good enough that we got away with really sheltering the bottom half of the D group, but it is kind of easy to forget just how much we relied on those 3 horses to carry the load. They were our only D who played 17+ minutes a night in the 2019 playoffs. They were also the only 3 D who played 20+ minutes a night in the regular season. We had to mix-and-match partners with Petro and Petro was the level of player that could still be a stud through that mixing and matching. But we didn't have a defined, consistent top pair that was out there together in all situations. Eddy was on the top pair some nights and a healthy scratch other nights. Petro got multiple shifts every night with someone other than his 'usual' partner and his 'usual partner wasn't consistent. And then we really limited the minutes of the 3rd pair.

Faulk (for all his warts) is a better overall player than any of Gunnar, Dunn, Eddy, and Bortz was at that stage of their careers.

Suter is more capable of soaking up minutes effectively than Gunnar, Eddy, or Bortz.

While Leddy and Tucker are both playing their off side as the 3RD, I think that both are comfortably relied on to provide more than the 12:19 Berube trusted Bortz to handle in the 17 games he was in the lineup in the playoffs and there were 9 playoff games where we had a LHD as the 3RD in that run.

I think there is a noticeable gap between the current #4-7 D men and the 2019 #4-7. There are plenty of Cup winners who have had success leaning extra-heavy on the top 4 while only using the 3rd pair to soak up enough minutes to let those guys catch their breath. Our 2019 team certainly wasn't unique for doing that and the coaching staff handled the 4-7 guys beautifully in our Cup run. But there is also a tangible advantage to having a 3rd pair that doesn't scare the hell out of the coach.

I'm not going to say that someone is wrong if they feel the 2019 D group was better than the current group, but I think that there is a real argument that the current groups is as good overall and even if you disagree, the gap isn't massive. The 2019 team was 2nd in expected goals against per 60 after Berube took over. The current team is also 2nd since Monty took over. Parayko is having a career year and the additions of Broberg/Fowler have turned this blueline into a damn good group. The style and strengths of our current D group is different than the 2019 group, but I'm not sold that it is definitively worse.
Click to expand...

How about the forward group? I’d like to see you compare the 4 lines.
 
Mike Liut said:
How about the forward group? I’d like to see you compare the 4 lines.
Click to expand...
These comparisons could use a bit of context. With 4 straight years of flat cap, the parity across the league has really increased. If you compare rosters of top 5 teams today with 2019, the 2019 teams were all better/deeper. So while we likely aren’t as strong as our Cup team, but if we keep playing like this…
 
  • Like
Reactions: joe galiba, Mike Liut and ArenaRat
Mike Liut said:
How about the forward group? I’d like to see you compare the 4 lines.
Click to expand...
For all of these, I'm talking right now compared to the 2019 player. I'm not talking about what they could be for us in the future or what any of the 2019 players were before or after that season.

I don't think the backbone of the forward group compares all that favorably.

1C: Thomas is at best equal, but likely slightly lesser than 2019 ROR. Thomas has the edge in offense, but I think ROR had a larger edge in defense. If Thomas can play the best 2-3 months of his career the way ROR did in 2019, then they could be equal (although different strengths).

2C: 2024 Schenn is lesser than 2019 Schenn. We can debate the margin, but I think we'd all agree here.

Goal Scoring RW: Kyrou is slightly lesser than Tarasenko. Their production is very similar, but I give the edge to Tarasenko based on the increase in overall NHL scoring from 2019 vs today. And Tarasenko had that absolutely clutch, 'decide to score you the goal you need' ability. Until I see Kyrou pump goals in the playoffs like Tarasenko did, 91 has the slight edge for me.

Two-way, grinding RW: Buch has been slightly lesser than Perron this year. He has the ceiling to be better than Perron, but it hasn't been there so far this year.

Relentless motor LW: Holloway has been greater than Schwartz. But Schwartz had a career-worst regular season in 2018/19 before exploding in the playoffs to lead the team in goals and finish 2nd in points. Game winner with 15 seconds left in game 5 and then all 3 of our goals in the series-deciding game 6 against Winnipeg. Holloway has big shoes to fill to be greater than what Schwartz was in the 2019 playoffs.

3C: Sunny is much lesser than Bozak. Bozak was a 40-50 point middle 6 excellent-at-the-dot center slotted in a bit lower in the lineup than his skillset. Sunny is a bottom 6 poor-at-the-dot winger/center who is slotted in about as high in the lineup as you can comfortably put him.

I think the core of the 2019 top 9 is better than the core of this year's top 9. However, I think this team's support player's in the top 9 have the edge on 2019's. Sanford and Blais effectively played their role with ROR/Perron, but Neighbours is a better player than both of them. I think Bolduc is playing better than Thomas was at this point in 2019. Maroon was fine as a grinding 3rd liner, but Joseph has been playing that role just as well. I'll take the 'passengers' in our top 9 over those 2019 top 9 passengers.

And while the WTF line has been great for a while now, they aren't the 2019 4th line that became Berube's security blanket in 2019. Sunny, Steen, and Barbie had 31, 27, and 26 points in 2018/19. Steen's came in just 65 games played. Torpo is leading our current 4th line with 17 points. That line was simply able to do more things much better than the WTF line could and was genuinely closer to an NHL 3rd line than an NHL 4th line.

Overall, I think the group compares fairly well, but slightly worse. While there are a lot of 'close' calls if we get the best out of our guys this year, the gap between Bozak and Sunny is a pretty glaring one for me. The gap between Neighbours and whichever support winger you want to pick is equally glaring, but I think a deficit at center is a bigger deal than a surplus at wing.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ArenaRat, Beninnola, BrokenFace and 1 other person
Bye Bye Blueston said:
These comparisons could use a bit of context. With 4 straight years of flat cap, the parity across the league has really increased. If you compare rosters of top 5 teams today with 2019, the 2019 teams were all better/deeper. So while we likely aren’t as strong as our Cup team, but if we keep playing like this…
Click to expand...

Great point
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChicagoBlues and Bye Bye Blueston
Brian39 said:
And while the WTF line has been great for a while now, they aren't the 2019 4th line that became Berube's security blanket in 2019. Sunny, Steen, and Barbie had 31, 27, and 26 points in 2018/19. Steen's came in just 65 games played. Torpo is leading our current 4th line with 17 points. That line was simply able to do more things much better than the WTF line could and was genuinely closer to an NHL 3rd line than an NHL 4th line.
Click to expand...

I agree with your points but to be fair you have to admit that the 2019 4th line was not comprised of 4th liners like our 2025 one is. They were relegated to the 4th line but Steen and Barbashev were clearly not 4th line talent. Even now, after 2 knee surgeries and being 6 years older Sunny is still playing 3rd line.
 
I'm really hoping the Flames suspect goal differential begins exposing itself over this final stretch. Over their next 3 against Dallas, Edmonton, and Colorado, (who are still in the hunt for their divisions) those teams are a combined +119 to Calgarys -20. This would be a great time for their offense to go dry, Wolf to hit a wall or both. If they go 0-3 in those games and we go even just 1-1-1 in our next 3, that would give us a 7 point cushion going into next week with just nine games left on Calgarys slate, which would leave us in a pretty manageable spot to lock down a spot with our remaining six games.
 
Current Points Games RemainingPossible PointsRWROW
Wild85101053237vs C, vs V
Flames79121032631vs U, vs W
Blues8391012834vs U
Canucks80101002631vs W
Utah7511972431vs C, vs F
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom