The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[Celtic Note]

Those who want to tank need to ask themselves a few questions.

1. Given that Kyrou and Thomas are already 25-26 years old and Buchnevich is 29, how long do you expect them to wait for that 2025 draft pick to develop before competing again? Two or three more years? Could they realistically stomach that after missing the playoffs last year and the year before, especially with how they are playing now?
2. From a forward standpoint, what other pieces are we missing in our core group that we don't already have in our prospect system? This was my question last year, but Dylan Holloway has completely asserted himself into the core group and can play at the pace of Thomas and Kyrou.

We have similar player styles and roles that Chicago had before their dynasty started.
Toews and Thomas
Kane and Kyrou
Hossa and Buchnevich
Sharp and Holloway
Saad and Neighbours
Keith and Parayko
Seabrook and Faulk/Fowler
Hjalmarsson and Broberg
Crawford and Binnington

The core framework is there. What this team lacks is quality forward depth. We don't have that Byfuglien, Versteed, Shaw, Ladd, Bickell, Kopecky, Bolland, Brouwer, or Stalberg. Currently Sundqvist, Joseph, Torpo, Walker, and Faksa don't provide that level of support. However, next year and the year after, we can count on young Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Stancl, Pekarcik, Stenberg, etc to give them that.

It’s too late to have a period where we bottom out (not talking about a decade of it either). If we were going to do it should have been years ago. That opportunity was missed.

The next best hope to land an elite talent was to have a one year dip. I think we are also past that point.

We have what we have now. It’s a waiting game and we have to hope guys not here develop to their potential or that we can find a steal of a trade or two at the right time.

Comparing us to the Hawks team seems odd to me. I would take what they had from a talent standpoint over what we have 100% of the time.

 

[Celtic Note]

When you read the phrase "styles and roles," what did that mean to you? I tried really hard to make that clear by italicizing it, but apparently to some people: playing styles/roles, accolades, skill level, aura/reputation all mean the same thing...

Adding that phrase doesn’t change the fact that we have significantly less talent than they did. So what’s the point of the comparison if we exclude the arguably most significant factor of the entire equation?

 

[Majorityof1]

Well they brought in Fowler. That was basically our deadline move, it just happened earlier in the season. Along with adding Broberg, Holloway, Suter and some bottom 6 depth in the offseason, they have been adding and trying to improve.

No posts “accomplish” anything but it’s similar to the Pietrangelo debate. That horse was beaten to death and now this is the new topic that I believe the same thing is happening to. We can go round and round in circles about how the team should bottom out and tank, but that’s just not going to happen. And it seems that people won’t recognize that.


Well there needs to be a balance. If you’re saving literally all of your money just for retirement and not enjoying life in the present, you’re doing life wrong and I would feel really sorry for that person. Of course don’t blow all your money and be smart with it, but there can be room for both partying and retirement. Similar to how the Blues aren’t going all in, but we can still enjoy some playoff experience for our guys as we hope to continue building towards another Cup in the future. That doesn’t sound bad at all.

If the horse has been beaten to death, then why are you still beating it? It's ok for you to tell me why I am wrong for posting, but its not wrong for you to post? People sure do like to keep discussing these "dead" topics so they can complain when the other side responds. You know how to end a discussion? Do not engage. If the topic is dead, let it die.

Not trading Thomas and Kyrou is the having fun now. Bringing in/keeping vets who won't be around when we are ready to compete is spending your retirement nest egg (even if its not costly in assets it hurts our draft position and hence future capital). I said Fowler was a mistake because he would hurt our draft position, while still not making us competitive. Maybe we are competitive next year, but after that we have a tough call with him given his age. Hopefully he signs a shorter-term, team-friendly deal. He seems to like it here. If so then I'd be wrong about that trade. But if we need to let him walk or sign him too long term, then it was a mistake. I could be wrong, time will tell.

But that is the interesting (to me) part of the discussion, like you say, where is the proper balance. That discussion gets off track because I am obviously not a true fan and people need to tell me that or say the topic is dead rather than actually exploring the topic..

 

[bleedblue1223]

When you read the phrase "styles and roles," what did that mean to you? I tried really hard to make that clear by italicizing it, but apparently to some people: playing styles/roles, accolades, skill level, aura/reputation all mean the same thing...

Was it not the premise of your post to say the pro-tank crowd is wrong for their concerns? I'm not even pro-tank, but it's pretty obvious that the risk in our rebuild is lack of truly elite players. This core doesn't have a Petro and it doesn't have a Selke #1 in ROR. We don't even match up to the 2019 team.

I don't really care about styles and roles if the players are simply inferior to a Cup caliber team.

 

[BlueDream]

If the horse has been beaten to death, then why are you still beating it? It's ok for you to tell me why I am wrong for posting, but it’s not wrong for you to post? People sure do like to keep discussing these "dead" topics so they can complain when the other side responds. You know how to end a discussion? Do not engage. If the topic is dead, let it die.

Lol what? It’s not going to die. It goes on all the time in tons of different threads. So there’s no “letting it die”, that’s why I’m posting that people should drop it. I’m not beating the horse, I’m the one bringing it to people’s attention that the horse is dead. Thought this was obvious.

 

[Majorityof1]

Lol what? It’s not going to die. It goes on all the time in tons of different threads. So there’s no “letting it die”, that’s why I’m posting that people should drop it. I’m not beating the horse, I’m the one bringing it to people’s attention that the horse is dead. Thought this was obvious.

No, you are talking out both sides of your mouth. First you discuss Fowler move, and the importance of balance. That is engaging on the topic. Then you berate me for beating a dead horse. Why engage on the merits if the topic is so dead? If you wanted to say, "the topic is dead, let's move on", that all you need say.

Instead you want to "win" the argument, and then stifle any push back. "Here's why I'm right. Now the topic is dead. You can't respond because I said the topic was dead, so I am the last to speak on the topic, so I win."

Only you can beat the dead horse because you are screaming "the horse is dead" while you are also flogging it for all your worth. I mean let's look at your post. What part of the bolded is saying the topic is dead?

Well they brought in Fowler. That was basically our deadline move, it just happened earlier in the season. Along with adding Broberg, Holloway, Suter and some bottom 6 depth in the offseason, they have been adding and trying to improve.

No posts “accomplish” anything but it’s similar to the Pietrangelo debate. That horse was beaten to death and now this is the new topic that I believe the same thing is happening to. We can go round and round in circles about how the team should bottom out and tank, but that’s just not going to happen. And it seems that people won’t recognize that.


Well there needs to be a balance. If you’re saving literally all of your money just for retirement and not enjoying life in the present, you’re doing life wrong and I would feel really sorry for that person. Of course don’t blow all your money and be smart with it, but there can be room for both partying and retirement. Similar to how the Blues aren’t going all in, but we can still enjoy some playoff experience for our guys as we hope to continue building towards another Cup in the future. That doesn’t sound bad at all.

Paragraph 1 - Flogging the horse
Paragraph 2 - Oh my god man, the horse is dead
Paragraph 3 - Now let's really put our back into beating that horse.

 

[BlueDream]

No, you are talking out both sides of your mouth. First you discuss Fowler move, and the importance of balance. That is engaging on the topic. Then you berate me for beating a dead horse. Why engage on the merits if the topic is so dead? If you wanted to say, "the topic is dead, let's move on", that all you need say.

Instead you want to "win" the argument, and then stifle any push back. "Here's why I'm right. Now the topic is dead. You can't respond because I said the topic was dead, so I am the last to speak on the topic, so I win."

Only you can beat the dead horse because you are screaming "the horse is dead" while you are also flogging it for all your worth. I mean let's look at your post. What part of the bolded is saying the topic is dead?



Paragraph 1 - Flogging the horse
Paragraph 2 - Oh my god man, the horse is dead
Paragraph 3 - Now let's really put our back into beating that horse.

Lmao. Just arguing for the sake of arguing.

I did exactly what you said in the first paragraph in my first post. Then you replied and asked me questions so I just answered them since I was sitting on an airplane and had nothing else to do. But now you’re foaming at the mouth about “omggg now you’re beating this dead horse!” as if you think you’re doing something smart.

This is such “no you” energy. Elementary level logic and behavior going on right here. All because I spoke out against your views so now you’re just trying anything to legitimize yourself because you’re bitter or something and you’re using your own projection about “winning” a stupid argument onto me.

 

[MissouriMook]

Can we please get this thread back on topic and end the back and forth about which path is the right way to go? We’re spending a lot of time attacking each other instead of truly discussing the topic.

 

[Memento]

I expected us to not get a playoff spot this year - and that was with health included. I didn’t expect Holloway and Broberg to have the years they had. Kyrou has turned into our best player this year. Thomas has been hurt and Parayko has been hurt, and normally, one of the two alone would’ve spelled doom, but this team has been resilient since the coaching change, and the Fowler trade has helped a tremendous amount.

I’m bullish on a playoff spot now, and I love to be proven wrong about my original predictions in the best way!!!

 

[Brian39]

Was it not the premise of your post to say the pro-tank crowd is wrong for their concerns? I'm not even pro-tank, but it's pretty obvious that the risk in our rebuild is lack of truly elite players. This core doesn't have a Petro and it doesn't have a Selke #1 in ROR. We don't even match up to the 2019 team.

I don't really care about styles and roles if the players are simply inferior to a Cup caliber team.

Thomas isn't as good defensively as ROR was, but he is better offensively than ROR was. I'm not sure how close the comparative 'gaps' are, but I don't think the overall gap between the two is all that wide. Especially if we are comparing the two at age 25 and not comparing Thomas now to ROR's single-season peak at age 27. I think that Thomas could be a 1C of the same overall caliber as ROR was to the Cup team even if he is never the Selke winner ROR was that year.

I don't disagree about the risk being a lack of truly elite players, but I do not include 1C as part of that potential talent deficit compared to the Cup team.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Thomas isn't as good defensively as ROR was, but he is better offensively than ROR was. I'm not sure how close the comparative 'gaps' are, but I don't think the overall gap between the two is all that wide. Especially if we are comparing the two at age 25 and not comparing Thomas now to ROR's single-season peak at age 27. I think that Thomas could be a 1C of the same overall caliber as ROR was to the Cup team even if he is never the Selke winner ROR was that year.

I don't disagree about the risk being a lack of truly elite players, but I do not include 1C as part of that potential talent deficit compared to the Cup team.

Yeah, Thomas is the one that I can kind of give a pass on. I don't know where I'd put the gap on say him and ROR or Toews. I think Thomas is a good enough #1 C for a Cup team, but it would be a team like 2019, where it's just deep all over, along with high end players. Prime ROR and Toews were basically ppg, and it's not like Thomas has hit 90+ yet.

I agree though, with him, I'm not worried about #1 C.

 

[Brian39]

There are a couple important NHL games to watch tonight, but I will be doing less of that than usual since today is also the real start of March Madness. We're rooting for New Jersey to beat Calgary and Buffalo to beat Utah. New Jersey is starting Markstrom, which frustrates me since Allen has been noticeably outplaying him lately. Hopefully tonight's the night that Markstrom finds his game.

I'm also rooting for Chicago to beat the Kings. There is still the tiniest possibility that LA could get dragged down into the Wild Card fight and I don't want to see Chicago finish last. I don't care much about this game, but if I'm rooting for outcomes then I might as well hope for the best.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

"We"
Pssssssh

 

[Brian39]

Yeah, Thomas is the one that I can kind of give a pass on. I don't know where I'd put the gap on say him and ROR or Toews. I think Thomas is a good enough #1 C for a Cup team, but it would be a team like 2019, where it's just deep all over, along with high end players. Prime ROR and Toews were basically ppg, and it's not like Thomas has hit 90+ yet.

I agree though, with him, I'm not worried

I don't think it is fair to compare them where ROR is 'basically' at his benchmark, but Thomas hasn't hit his benchmark.

ROR never had a single season where he was a point per game player. In fact, he never had a season where he paced for 80. ROR's highest point pace was the 79 point pace he put up in the 56 game COVID season where we didn't play 75% of the league. His 77 points (in 82 games) in 2018/19 was his 2nd best season and 2019/20 year was his 3rd best season where he was at a 70 point pace. Thoes were the only seasons in his career where he paced for 70+. All told in those 3 years that are his clear prime, he was a 75 point pace player.

Thomas played at an 87 point pace in 2021/22. Like ROR, on pace to be 3 points shy of the benchmark in his career-year. His 86 points (in 82 games) last year was his 2nd best season and was a point closer to his benchmark than ROR was to his. His 56 points in 57 games is his 3rd best season, which is an 80 point pace. All told in those 3 years he has been an 85 point pace player.

I know it seems like a nitpick, but my overall point is that ROR was great for us, but I don't think that he was quite the elite talent that we often view him as. He is for sure a tier below what Toews was. Toews had 7 seasons at a 70+ point pace compared to ROR's 3. He had 3 seasons where he matched or exceeded ROR's career point pace (which again, was that COVID year where you didn't play 75% of the league). Toews currently has 70 more career points than ROR despite playing 70 fewer games. And he outscored ROR by a noticeable margin when you compare their Conn Smythe playoff performances.

I think we sometimes give ROR just a bit too much credit offensively when we are thinking about the type of guys we need to build around in the future. He was stud and his 2018/19 career year is better than the highest Thomas has reached so far. And being a 70+ point guy on top of the rest of his game was massive. I'm really not trying to downplay it, but I do think that Thomas' career year will be on par with ROR's from an 'overall impact' standpoint.

 

[Brian39]

"We"
Pssssssh

Sorry, let me re-phrase.

Anyone who would prefer playoffs and drafting 17th-18th over missing the playoffs and drafting 14th-16th should be rooting for those outcomes.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I don't think it is fair to compare them where ROR is 'basically' at his benchmark, but Thomas hasn't hit his benchmark.

ROR never had a single season where he was a point per game player. In fact, he never had a season where he paced for 80. ROR's highest point pace was the 79 point pace he put up in the 56 game COVID season where we didn't play 75% of the league. His 77 points (in 82 games) in 2018/19 was his 2nd best season and 2019/20 year was his 3rd best season where he was at a 70 point pace. Thoes were the only seasons in his career where he paced for 70+. All told in those 3 years that are his clear prime, he was a 75 point pace player.

Thomas played at an 87 point pace in 2021/22. Like ROR, on pace to be 3 points shy of the benchmark in his career-year. His 86 points (in 82 games) last year was his 2nd best season and was a point closer to his benchmark than ROR was to his. His 56 points in 57 games is his 3rd best season, which is an 80 point pace. All told in those 3 years he has been an 85 point pace player.

I know it seems like a nitpick, but my overall point is that ROR was great for us, but I don't think that he was quite the elite talent that we often view him as. He is for sure a tier below what Toews was. Toews had 7 seasons at a 70+ point pace compared to ROR's 3. He had 3 seasons where he matched or exceeded ROR's career point pace (which again, was that COVID year where you didn't play 75% of the league). Toews currently has 70 more career points than ROR despite playing 70 fewer games. And he outscored ROR by a noticeable margin when you compare their Conn Smythe playoff performances.

I think we sometimes give ROR just a bit too much credit offensively when we are thinking about the type of guys we need to build around in the future. He was stud and his 2018/19 career year is better than the highest Thomas has reached so far. And being a 70+ point guy on top of the rest of his game was massive. I'm really not trying to downplay it, but I do think that Thomas' career year will be on par with ROR's from an 'overall impact' standpoint.

For the record, my intention isn't to compare in a sense to put Thomas down. I do broadly agree with the idea that he would be a good enough #1 C on a contender. I'm perfectly content building around him as one of our main pieces.

When I look at the Blackhawks, Kings, and Bruins recent runs, and throw ours in as well, winning with a Selke, near ppg #1 C is a proven thing. When look at the other teams that have won, I don't know how well Thomas stacks up against those guys, the Barkov, Crosby, Eichel, Backstrom, Stamkos, Point, etc. The difficult part is that all winners are built different, it's not as simple as follow a template.

I'm not saying ROR, Toews, Kopitar, or Bergeron were elite during their Cup runs, it's just that type of a center the 75ish Selke C is the non-elite C that has been proven to win a recent Cup. I'm not sure where the tier that Thomas is in falls, the guys that are a step above offensively, say 85ish points, are good enough 2-way that they can play any situation, but they aren't the elite shutdown guy.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Yeah, Thomas is the one that I can kind of give a pass on. I don't know where I'd put the gap on say him and ROR or Toews. I think Thomas is a good enough #1 C for a Cup team, but it would be a team like 2019, where it's just deep all over, along with high end players. Prime ROR and Toews were basically ppg, and it's not like Thomas has hit 90+ yet.

I agree though, with him, I'm not worried about #1 C.

Um, What? Ryan O'Reilly was never a Point Per Game player, and was only close to it twice and that was the 2018/2019 season when he had 77 points in 82 games and the shortened 2020-21 Season where he had 54 points in 56 games.

 

[oPlaiD]

Under Montgomery the Blues are playing well enough to compete in the playoffs. If the goal is to maximize Stanley Cup odds over any given future time frame, which I assume is the primary argument people have for tanking, making the playoffs this season is going to have a bigger impact than moving up a couple draft slots in a single season, since right now we are actually playing like a top 5 or so team in the league.

It feel weird typing this because at the end of last offseason this outcome seemed literally impossible. But we've gotten like a top 0.1% percentile performance over what was expected from Holloway and Broberg is up in the top percentiles there as well. I expected the team to be better with Montgomery, but his impact has also been beyond expectation. Same with the addition of Fowler.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Sorry, let me re-phrase.

Anyone who would prefer playoffs and drafting 17th-18th over missing the playoffs and drafting 14th-16th should be rooting for those outcomes.

Just giving you a hard time. All in good fun my man. Appreciate you playing along.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Um, What? Ryan O'Reilly was never a Point Per Game player, and was only close to it twice and that was the 2018/2019 season when he had 77 points in 82 games and the shortened 2020-21 Season where he had 54 points in 56 games.

I consider anything 75+ basically ppg. If you want to nit pick over that, so be it.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

 

[Mike Liut]

Thomas isn't as good defensively as ROR was, but he is better offensively than ROR was. I'm not sure how close the comparative 'gaps' are, but I don't think the overall gap between the two is all that wide. Especially if we are comparing the two at age 25 and not comparing Thomas now to ROR's single-season peak at age 27. I think that Thomas could be a 1C of the same overall caliber as ROR was to the Cup team even if he is never the Selke winner ROR was that year.

I don't disagree about the risk being a lack of truly elite players, but I do not include 1C as part of that potential talent deficit compared to the Cup team.

I’d love to have a topic to compare this team to the 19 team player for player to see how it stacks up. Just for shits

 

[Ranksu]

What a silly comparison lol. I can't imagine people would rather move up a couple of spots in the draft than have an exciting run to the playoffs but guess to each their own.

Have fun 1st round and get swept.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Have fun 1st round and get swept.

A team in transition like the Blues is likely to struggle in their first playoff experience no matter what. Better to make our learning year this season than next.

Young players getting a taste of the postseason and learning what it takes to win in that environment is a big part of the rebuilding process.

 

[Mike Liut]

Our 5-8 year window has just opened.