OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Post Draft - Still dont need no QB

The main rationalization I see for the Steelers trading Pickens for a 2026 3rd rather than a 2025 3rd at the draft is they're loading up on 2026 picks to make a run at a QB next year, which isn't exactly a ridiculous suggestion when the draft is in Pittsburgh next year. I think they're absolutely going to be trading up to get as high as possible in the draft to take a QB, and they're going to need draft picks to fill the holes on the rest of the roster with doing that.

The 2021 draft had a couple of draft pick trades that can suggest the valued required to move up:

-#3 for #12, a 2022 1st, a 2023 1st and a 2022 3rd
-#6 and #156 for #12, #123 and a 2022 1st
-#11 for #20, #164, a 2022 1st and a 2022 4th

If you're sitting at #20, you're probably going to have to trade 2 1sts and some day 3 picks to move up to #6 to grab a QB. If you want to move up even further, you need to trade likely 3 1sts and a couple of 3rd-5th rounders. Even if the deal ends up being just #20, a 2027 1st and a 2028 1st to move up to #6 to get a QB, you need those extra picks to fill out the holes you're going to have from losing out on those 2 1sts.
 
I hope you’re right. Team beats pretty much made it seem that he was a bust.
I have no way of knowing for sure, but so much “info” about RW that came out seemed to be of the purple/monkey/dishwasher variety. The best I can tell is that he had a series of injuries and wasn’t able to get back to form and anything beyond that was just wild speculation.
 
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The only thing that can make any sense is that they’ve loaded up on draft capital for next year and this is a punted season.

But if that’s the case, sell off Watt and Minkah.
Exactly.

The decision to trade Pickens in and of itself isn't the real problem, even if they could've better utilized assets by trading him before the draft and using one of their picks on a receiver to replace him, or closer to the in season deadline would there be a desperate team in need of a receiver.

The real problem is this team, much like their QB situation, is stuck in the middle of no man's land, unable to decide if they want to try to contend or truly rebuild for the future, and make contradictory decisions that don't make any sense for either purpose.

If they thought they could realistically contend in the next season or two, then paying a 2nd for Metcalf to complement with Pickens makes sense, trying to extend Watt makes sense, going after Rodgers makes sense (overpaying to keep Fields here would've made even more sense but spilled milk and all).

But trading Pickens is a win later move, regardless of how bad his behavioral problems might be, you are not going to get an equivalent talent for equivalent assets you used to acquire him, nor even what they just got to get rid of him.

If that's the case, you don't need Metcalf here in the first place, he alone as a receiving threat is not good enough to carry an offense, especially one without a great QB to throw him balls, so he's wasted here. Some will argue a 2nd to acquire Metcalf being worth it but by the time they draft and hopefully hit a home run on the next franchise QB, Metcalf will be in his 30s and his contract will almost be over. At no point in his tenure here will he likely ever play for a contending team. That 2nd could've been better utilized in the draft for the future, you don't need a Metcalf to properly develop a QB.

In the same vein, resigning Watt is another pointless endeavor if building the team towards winning later, especially when you drafted yet another edge LB when Herbig is already knocking at the door for more playing time behind Watt and Highsmith. Watt is almost assuredly already passed his prime production, and like his brother is becoming more and more injury prone. He's not a bull rush defensive end who as long as he maintains his strength can still remain effective on the rush. He's strong yes but built more lanky and relies primarily on speed off the edge, which will diminish quicker as he ages compared to the alternative, especially if he ends up as injury prone as his brother was in his 30's. Paying him $40 million a year to decline in performance each year that goes by in a defense that routinely with or without him sucks when it matters is not smart asset utilization. If they're not going to win regardless of circumstance this season or the next few, they can do that without him just as well as they have with him his entire post season career (all of 1 sack).

Minkah is the same story as Watt, except without the recent elite performance, coasting off his reputation for years now.

Khan and Weidl clearly have a vision for this team when it comes to draft strategy, but have completely fumbled the ball regarding where this team supposedly believes itself to be when compared to their competition. They're not a contender, yet not a top 5 pick team, they're stuck in the middle, which is the worst place you can be, and they don't seem to have a real plan on how they plan to escape that barring firing Tomlin and bringing in a coach willing to suck for a few years until they get a real franchise QB, gutting the older roster players who have no future value for picks, and truly dedicating themselves to a rebuild.

For those that always argue about not needing to tank to get a good QB, first they don't need a good QB, they need a great one. One who will be capable of beating Lamar or Burrow for the foreseeable future, they likely aren't going to find one of those outside of the top of the first round, especially if relying on a project pick that would need proper developing, this coaching staff sure isn't capable of accomplishing that, hence why if they aren't going to dump Tomlin, they're going to need as ready a prospect as possible that is coaching proof, and they're unlikely to find that in pick 20+.

Second, at least for this upcoming draft, the Browns and another team who I can't remember off the top of my head are stockpiling picks for next year just like the Steelers are, except theirs are better, and they're likely to suck this upcoming season and have a better draft position to start with to trade up from if they even need to to get one of the top QB's. The Steelers will have plenty of competition in trading up for one of the top QB's. There's not even a guarantee there'll be that many worth taking, yet the Steelers again will handicap their chances by striving to win meaningless regular season games that will only hinder their chances at an actual worthwhile QB prospect. Unless they punt next draft as well in the hopes of going all out for Manning the next year or something, this upcoming draft is no slam dunk they'll find a franchise QB demonstrably better than Howard.

I just wish this team would pick a lane and stick to it, but they're still stuck in their 20 year old "Steelers way" mindset, that hasn't produced anything of real value in over a decade. Just look at where Washington was 5 years ago and where they're at today, and then try to honestly argue that once laughingstock of the league is not in a better organizational position today and going forward than the "never has losing seasons" Steelers.

Long story short...

Joker-town-needs-an-enema.gif
 
I seriously hope there’s a corresponding move or signing (and not just f***ing Robert Woods), but who am I kidding?

I think Keenan Allen still has a little juice left 😭
Keenan definitely has some juice left in the tank. More than most of the Steelers Twitter verse is giving him credit for. But he has already stated this offseason he was staying in Chicago or going back to LA and had no interest playing anywhere else.
 
Exactly.

The decision to trade Pickens in and of itself isn't the real problem, even if they could've better utilized assets by trading him before the draft and using one of their picks on a receiver to replace him, or closer to the in season deadline would there be a desperate team in need of a receiver.

The real problem is this team, much like their QB situation, is stuck in the middle of no man's land, unable to decide if they want to try to contend or truly rebuild for the future, and make contradictory decisions that don't make any sense for either purpose.

If they thought they could realistically contend in the next season or two, then paying a 2nd for Metcalf to complement with Pickens makes sense, trying to extend Watt makes sense, going after Rodgers makes sense (overpaying to keep Fields here would've made even more sense but spilled milk and all).

But trading Pickens is a win later move, regardless of how bad his behavioral problems might be, you are not going to get an equivalent talent for equivalent assets you used to acquire him, nor even what they just got to get rid of him.

If that's the case, you don't need Metcalf here in the first place, he alone as a receiving threat is not good enough to carry an offense, especially one without a great QB to throw him balls, so he's wasted here. Some will argue a 2nd to acquire Metcalf being worth it but by the time they draft and hopefully hit a home run on the next franchise QB, Metcalf will be in his 30s and his contract will almost be over. At no point in his tenure here will he likely ever play for a contending team. That 2nd could've been better utilized in the draft for the future, you don't need a Metcalf to properly develop a QB.

In the same vein, resigning Watt is another pointless endeavor if building the team towards winning later, especially when you drafted yet another edge LB when Herbig is already knocking at the door for more playing time behind Watt and Highsmith. Watt is almost assuredly already passed his prime production, and like his brother is becoming more and more injury prone. He's not a bull rush defensive end who as long as he maintains his strength can still remain effective on the rush. He's strong yes but built more lanky and relies primarily on speed off the edge, which will diminish quicker as he ages compared to the alternative, especially if he ends up as injury prone as his brother was in his 30's. Paying him $40 million a year to decline in performance each year that goes by in a defense that routinely with or without him sucks when it matters is not smart asset utilization. If they're not going to win regardless of circumstance this season or the next few, they can do that without him just as well as they have with him his entire post season career (all of 1 sack).

Minkah is the same story as Watt, except without the recent elite performance, coasting off his reputation for years now.

Khan and Weidl clearly have a vision for this team when it comes to draft strategy, but have completely fumbled the ball regarding where this team supposedly believes itself to be when compared to their competition. They're not a contender, yet not a top 5 pick team, they're stuck in the middle, which is the worst place you can be, and they don't seem to have a real plan on how they plan to escape that barring firing Tomlin and bringing in a coach willing to suck for a few years until they get a real franchise QB, gutting the older roster players who have no future value for picks, and truly dedicating themselves to a rebuild.

For those that always argue about not needing to tank to get a good QB, first they don't need a good QB, they need a great one. One who will be capable of beating Lamar or Burrow for the foreseeable future, they likely aren't going to find one of those outside of the top of the first round, especially if relying on a project pick that would need proper developing, this coaching staff sure isn't capable of accomplishing that, hence why if they aren't going to dump Tomlin, they're going to need as ready a prospect as possible that is coaching proof, and they're unlikely to find that in pick 20+.

Second, at least for this upcoming draft, the Browns and another team who I can't remember off the top of my head are stockpiling picks for next year just like the Steelers are, except theirs are better, and they're likely to suck this upcoming season and have a better draft position to start with to trade up from if they even need to to get one of the top QB's. The Steelers will have plenty of competition in trading up for one of the top QB's. There's not even a guarantee there'll be that many worth taking, yet the Steelers again will handicap their chances by striving to win meaningless regular season games that will only hinder their chances at an actual worthwhile QB prospect. Unless they punt next draft as well in the hopes of going all out for Manning the next year or something, this upcoming draft is no slam dunk they'll find a franchise QB demonstrably better than Howard.

I just wish this team would pick a lane and stick to it, but they're still stuck in their 20 year old "Steelers way" mindset, that hasn't produced anything of real value in over a decade. Just look at where Washington was 5 years ago and where they're at today, and then try to honestly argue that once laughingstock of the league is not in a better organizational position today and going forward than the "never has losing seasons" Steelers.

Long story short...

View attachment 1031319
DJ Spinoza thinks this is a long post. Pirates thread people will understand.

I do agree with the point and the self-imposed purgatory they are keeping themselves in is pretty frustrating, and while I think Pickens had to go as the guy is a complete cancer, the sequence here makes 2025 hard to envision being anything special. Or more than average. At best.
 
The conspiracy theory being thrown out on Reddit is that Rodgers is going to retire so they’re just giving up on the season and selling Pickens now.

That’s the way I read the move…tanking the 2025 season to have the eggs to move up if necessary in the draft to land a franchise QB
 
I'm not trading Watt unless he wants out, but I'd probably be selling on Minkah right now if you're viewing this year as a throwaway year. Minkah is approaching cut territory next off-season anyway, so I'd rather sell him now than keep him for a meaningless year and possibly cut him next year.
 
All this to draft drew allar next year
This is my one worry with them seemingly stockpiling picks for next year, well actually it's two worries:
  1. They have stiff competition for the top QB's next year, whoever said QB's may be. Competition who will with all likelyhood be worse teams and thus higher in the draft to begin with than the Steelers will be, and who have more and better quality assets ready to trade up with than what the Steelers have.

    The chances of them trading up for either of the perceived top 2 QB's is close to none as they won't be bad enough to naturally have one of the top picks, and their competition have the assets to out bid them in a trade-up scenario would the top 2 perceived talents of the class prove worth trading up for.

    I'm not exactly excited to come out of the draft that the team is clearly finally preparing to take their QB of the future in, with the 3rd or worse QB of the class. They should've prepared better for that if that's been their plan all along, but they're clearly half-assing this rebuild.

  2. I don't want to be looking back a decade from now wishing the year they finally prepared to draft a QB wasn't the year prior to a class they had a better chance at getting the top QB's out of if only they'd wait another year with more accumulated assets to trade-up with, and hopefully less competition for said QB's, especially if they actually decided to tank for once.

    Basically, I hope next year doesn't turn into the draft class prior to the Manning/Rivers/Ben draft, with the Steelers pushing all their chips in a year too early because they were desperate and mistimed when they'd take a shot.

    Yes there's no guarantee next year QB class will be worse than the years after, but I'd be far more confident in their chances at getting a franchise QB next year, if they weren't nearly guaranteed due to the circumstances I laid out above to be picking from the scraps of the top of the class than the best available options.
 
I'm not trading Watt unless he wants out, but I'd probably be selling on Minkah right now if you're viewing this year as a throwaway year. Minkah is approaching cut territory next off-season anyway, so I'd rather sell him now than keep him for a meaningless year and possibly cut him next year.
Minkah’s contract/dead money makes him impossible to trade this season but easy to cut or trade after the season…
 
This is from a fantasy football site I read, but I thought the analysis was pretty good and worth sharing here:


DK METCALF

  • Metcalf is under contract with Pittsburgh for the next five years, and he’s owed $150 million. That’s big-time WR1 money, and PIT has now made another move indicating they view him as their clear alpha. Metcalf posted a 25% target share in 2022 but was at just 20.6% last year and 21.9% in 2023 — he will have every chance to get back to that 2022 number given the lack of target competition in PIT.
  • With that being said, this is still an Arthur Smith run-centric offense, so his raw target ceiling may not be massive. Plus, the Steelers’ QB position is still a huge question mark. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t signed yet and reportedly has no timetable for making a decision, so Mason Rudolph is currently atop the depth chart. Even if Rodgers signs, he wasn’t a good NFL QB last year and is now 41 years old, so it’ll be hard to feel good about Metcalf’s QB play regardless.
  • In short, Metcalf could be a target hog in 2025 but has offensive environment and QB concerns. We have him as a third-round pick in fantasy now.


OTHER STEELERS PLAYERS

 
I'm not trading Watt unless he wants out, but I'd probably be selling on Minkah right now if you're viewing this year as a throwaway year. Minkah is approaching cut territory next off-season anyway, so I'd rather sell him now than keep him for a meaningless year and possibly cut him next year.
Really? So what purpose will Watt serve the franchise exactly?? Huge cap hit for a declining player?????

See Penguins
 
I was against trading TJ, but with the trade of Pickens I am now for it. Time to rebuild and stop with the half-hearted approach where they don't commit to anything.
 
Trading Watt makes sense, but the thing with that is with the way the cap rules are you have to give that money to someone. If you don’t pay him 40 million, you gotta make some bigger trades or hand out some absurd free agent contracts.
 

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