OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Oh no! They are 3 and 1. Panic!

[Peat]

And people just used that to rally the "this is why Fields is getting benched" and "Fields can't see the field" narratives. But if you look at PFF's separation numbers, Austin is bad at getting open:

a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.

 

[Empoleon8771]

a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.

Yeah I think the bolded is an entirely fair point as well and just brings up the lack of context some of the arguments being made with that. People used that article to make the argument of "Austin is always open and Fields never sees him". My point with the PFF stats wasn't that they're 100% right and Austin is bad at separation, but they were two significantly different results based on two separate analyses of the games.

My overall point in that post was people making disingenuous argument based on either data without context or incomplete data, and I think the interpretation you put out regarding PFF is completely reasonable and why just looking at just one article or one stat doesn't paint the full picture.

 

[UnrealMachine]

I value 1st downs. I have no idea whether the amount of 1st downs that Fields has got in situations where he's decided to scramble is good or bad compared to what other QBs achieve with their legs and arm in similar positions.

I zoom out and I see a guy who is, touchdowns aside, not as good at rushing as he was at his old team. I can zoom in and give reasons why but that is the long and the short of it. Fields' results here as a rusher are generally worse than his results in Chicago who were nobody's idea of an offensive playground.

Do I think that's his fault? Almost definitely not. But did I expect more? Yeah.

And as such, do I think the value he's providing to the team with his rushing is perhaps less than his reputation? Yeah. It's great he's lethal in the red zone but the team needs to get there more often and part of why they're not is they're not getting the best out of Fields' legs.

eta: Disappointing and no big deal aren't always the same thing either. Muth's stats are decent for a TE, but still kind of disappointing after all the hype about how much Smith loves him some TEs. Fields' stats are far from awful, but for a guy who's maybe the most talented running QB in the league after Jackson, they're a bit disappointing.

And I will always be harsh on every would-be starting QB this team has that's past what I consider the major development window at 3 years because it's the one position you can't really bullshit your way through with 'good enough'.

But I will add this as what is hopefully the most important point - I am disappointed in the team's usage of Fields on this score much more than I am disappointed in Fields' himself.

It doesn’t appear to me that you are really evaluating him on balance - especially so in relation to the recent past two seasons of Steelers offensive output. Their passing was anemic the last 2 seasons and they have an even worse cast of offensive players this season with Johnson gone (for better or worse).

Back to Fields, while I am in agreement that there is still some meat on the bone in terms of potential rushing yards, a major contributing factor to that is:

1. Suboptimal playcalling - which you concede - along with the predictability of the offense itself leading to teams stacking 9 players in the box (and the Steelers trying to run the ball anyway. The designed runs for Fields are a little too much too often when they are happening outside of 3rd down or the red zone. So his rushing numbers are going to be skewed a little lower because they are happening a little too frequently where the ceiling of that run is on the lower side (as opposed to an RPO or designed draw play).

2. Fields developing as a passer. His completion percentage is up significantly and would be even higher if not for some drops along with PI calls (the bs ones called on the offense along with the ones called against the defense which have negated some huge passes that were right on target). Add to that, he isn’t looking to his legs as being the 2nd read anymore and appears to be going deeper into his progressions. I would argue that perhaps the pendulum has swung too far and he now isn’t looking to run early enough on many designed pass plays -to his detriment.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.

Averages are a terrible, terrible stat for something like separation. There are so many other factors involved, like if a guy is trying to set an illegal pick route on another defender, his separation is going to drop while the beneficiary's is going to increase, just based on the play design.