OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Off Season We dont need a QB Edition

[Peat]

This is something I can get more behind, but I really get the impression that a ton of fans on here are basically "I'm not drafting a QB unless they're top-10 pick caliber". How many people here have said they are a flat out no on Milroe?

I think there is a big section here that views it as basically "I'm not drafting a QB unless I'm getting Mahomes", but if they're never in a position to get Mahomes, what exactly do you do? Just keep kicking the can down the road? I just don't think that's a good idea.

This isn't an argument for drafting Dart, it's more of a general argument about the plans for the Steelers to get a QB in the future. I think Steelers fans are being a bit too much of "choosing beggars" with the QB situation.

Honestly, I don't know. It's definitely possible a lot of drafts could come and go without that trade up opportunity. Even if I thought they should stay endlessly patient as a fan, I recognise that's just not an option for them as professionals looking after professionals.

But while I don't know what the answer is, I do strongly believe that if we're talking spending 1st round picks on QBs who are hopefully here for 10+ years, then it's got to be a pick to raise the org's ceiling and that if that's not there, you are probably about to waste time by tying yourself to the wrong guy.

Or in other words, it's a lose-lose scenario.

In any case, I don't think they're in a position yet where they have to do something, so I hope they use that time.

Also two other semi-related thoughts -

Arguably the smartest thing to do in today's NFL is to stop looking for franchise QBs, and just constantly look for good enough QBs on rookie deals who you dump at the end and start again. Under that, Dart might be pretty interesting. That's pretty much unsellable to players/the general public tho.

Also, I think the smartest thing to do for a team in the wilderness (that doesn't want to tank) is to find a stable bridge starter in FA/trade and take shots at the back end of the draft in the hope something happens until they see a chance to take the big shot. To which end, my 20/20 hindsight "maybe we should have gone hard on Fields" is growing stronger

edit: A third - honestly, I feel like a lot of QBs have that best case "holy shit" ceiling. Justin Fields definitely had it. Hell, I was halfway to believing Nix had it, as I think his accuracy and pressure to sack ratios demonstrated a guy who really did think the game at elite speed and that gives a dude a chance even if his arm isn't all that. It's not super common, but it's not super rare either.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah my concern isn't that I think the QBs in this draft are great, it's that I don't think there is really a backup plan being proposed that isn't just "keep kicking the can down the road until the Steelers are in a position to get that top QB". If you were to draft Dart this year (or even Milroe, for that matter), you'd have a guy who could possibly turn into a QB that you can win a championship with. If you don't, you absolutely don't have a guy who could possibly turn into that.

Waiting until next year may not change that, because what if the QB class next year doesn't end up any better? What if the QBs available next year are just another Dart and Milroe type? Do you kick the can down the road again and just wait until 2027? The part of the strategy that concerns me is that there is no guarantee that "next year" will yield the QB that you want to justify drafting a QB, so it feels like it could just be a never ending cycle of waiting to get a QB you may not ever end up getting.

With Fields being gone I think they'd be making a pretty serious mistake with not drafting a QB with starter's upside this year. That doesn't have to be Dart in round 1, but it probably shouldn't be less than Milroe or Ewers in round 2/3.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Milroe has the holy shit ceiling in this class…. but I also go holy shit watching him try to place a checkdown on the correct side of the WR

It’s honestly really hard. Milroe could be supercharged Hurts, he could be Malik Willis. Dart could be Burrow. He could also be Christian Ponder

 

[Peat]

Yeah my concern isn't that I think the QBs in this draft are great, it's that I don't think there is really a backup plan being proposed that isn't just "keep kicking the can down the road until the Steelers are in a position to get that top QB". If you were to draft Dart this year (or even Milroe, for that matter), you'd have a guy who could possibly turn into a QB that you can win a championship with. If you don't, you absolutely don't have a guy who could possibly turn into that.

Waiting until next year may not change that, because what if the QB class next year doesn't end up any better? What if the QBs available next year are just another Dart and Milroe type? Do you kick the can down the road again and just wait until 2027? The part of the strategy that concerns me is that there is no guarantee that "next year" will yield the QB that you want to justify drafting a QB, so it feels like it could just be a never ending cycle of waiting to get a QB you may not ever end up getting.

Sometimes it's hard to come up with a strategy beyond burn that bridge when we get there. I mean, what state is the team going to be in? Is the idea of this team contending going to be over due to sudden fall offs in defensive talent? Is the window going to look open? What about FA and trade?

At some point, they will be forced to get a young QB. But beyond that... who knows.

With Fields being gone I think they'd be making a pretty serious mistake with not drafting a QB with starter's upside this year. That doesn't have to be Dart in round 1, but it probably shouldn't be less than Milroe or Ewers in round 2/3.

Tbh, just in terms of viable starterdom, I like the guys behind Milroe and Ewers a good deal more than them. I have serious doubts about both guys' processing speed - particularly Milroe's - and would rather bet on guys who look like they might have untapped stuff there in later rounds.

Milroe has the holy shit ceiling in this class…. but I also go holy shit watching him try to place a checkdown on the correct side of the WR

It’s honestly really hard. Milroe could be supercharged Hurts, he could be Malik Willis. Dart could be Burrow. He could also be Christian Ponder

I increasingly like using the term realistic ceiling because otherwise, ceiling just assumes everyone ends up equal mentally (when they clearly don't) and it's just who's the best athlete. I do not know what is the most improvement in terms of processing speed and technique that can be realistically expected from Milroe but I'm pretty sure it leaves him short of a holy shit ceiling. I don't get how a guy with his athletic gifts can have a 26% career pressure to sack rate and I don't see how a guy who doesn't react fast enough to the game to prevent that is ever going to react fast enough to be a top QB.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sometimes it's hard to come up with a strategy beyond burn that bridge when we get there. I mean, what state is the team going to be in? Is the idea of this team contending going to be over due to sudden fall offs in defensive talent? Is the window going to look open? What about FA and trade?

At some point, they will be forced to get a young QB. But beyond that... who knows.



Tbh, just in terms of viable starterdom, I like the guys behind Milroe and Ewers a good deal more than them. I have serious doubts about both guys' processing speed - particularly Milroe's - and would rather bet on guys who look like they might have untapped stuff there in later rounds.

I think you start running into talent issues if you get by Milroe and Ewers, though. Milroe has that insane athleticism and Ewers has what is described as a "golden arm" that makes me think both of those guys could have starter's upside if developed properly. I don't know that anyone else in the class has any kind of tool that suggests they could be a starter.

Maybe McCord is a later pick alternative? I don't view guys like Howard to have starter's upside.

 

[pistolpete11]

I read your posts, they all look like "he needs to have Mahomes type of upside for me to want to draft him".

All your posts look like you're fine using 1st round picks on QBs that aren't good enough to win Super Bowls with.

I guess we have a disagreement.

The impression I'm getting from your posts is that you only want to draft a QB that has upside like Lamar, Allen, Mahomes and a few select guys like that. The problem with that mindset is that this team will almost definitely not be bad enough to get in a position to draft someone with that kind of upside. So what do they do in the meantime, just keep kicking the can down the road?

These aren't the best examples for your argument. Lamar was taken 32OV and the Chiefs/Bills moved up from 27OV/12OV to get Mahomes/Allen which is what I've already suggested the Steelers are setup to do next year. You don't necessarily need to finish bottom 5 to find a talented QB, it just might cost you. I'd rather pay that price than overdraft low ceiling guys (edit: particularly in R1).

To answer your question, in the meantime, sign a bridge guy. Take a flier on a later round pick. Look for a trade. 1st round picks are too valuable to take guys that you know aren't good enough.

 

[Peat]

I think you start running into talent issues if you get by Milroe and Ewers, though. Milroe has that insane athleticism and Ewers has what is described as a "golden arm" that makes me think both of those guys could have starter's upside if developed properly. I don't know that anyone else in the class has any kind of tool that suggests they could be a starter.

Maybe McCord is a later pick alternative? I don't view guys like Howard to have starter's upside.

We're back to one of my favourite hobby horses here in terms of mental traits vs physical traits/talent here. In terms of just finding a starter to help keep things stable and non-stupid, I'd rather bet on finding a guy with good mental traits and an okay talent floor vs good physical traits and an okay mental floor because I believe the first guy can be just as good a starter and the price to acquire is usually a lot lower.

If we're talking elite starters... well, I still think elite mental traits > elite physical traits, but the difficulty of judging who has elite mental traits means I'm more sympathetic to hunting for really good mental traits with elite/really good physical traits. Also the difficulty of keeping a guy on the field learning if they have to rely solely on their brain. Watching how the Broncos developed Bo Nix by having him run a ton then pass more was an eye opener for me.

Although the difficulty of judging elite mental traits means the chance of discovering the NFL goofed majorly and gave you an outstanding talent later on rises compared to trying to do it by physical traits. Not by a huge amount, but by a little.

 

[Empoleon8771]

All your posts look like you're fine using 1st round picks on QBs that aren't good enough to win Super Bowls with.

I guess we have a disagreement.


These aren't the best examples for your argument. Lamar was taken 32OV and the Chiefs/Bills moved up from 27OV/12OV to get Mahomes/Allen which is what I've already suggested the Steelers are setup to do next year. You don't necessarily need to finish bottom 5 to find a talented QB, it just might cost you. I'd rather pay that price than overdraft low ceiling guys (edit: particularly in R1).

To answer your question, in the meantime, sign a bridge guy. Take a flier on a later round pick. Look for a trade. 1st round picks are too valuable to take guys that you know aren't good enough.

My only concern here is that it seems like it has become more expensive/difficult to do this than when the Chiefs and Bills did that. Look at the 2024 draft, all of the QBs worth anything were taken by #12 overall and a ton of people thought Penix and McCarthy went way too high.

QBs seem to be going higher and higher where it seems like guys like Lamar, Allen and Mahomes wouldn't have lasted as long as when they were drafted. That's why there's a conversation about guys like Dart sliding up into round 1. I feel like it's only going to be more expensive to trade up because these guys will keep going earlier and earlier.

There were no QBs taken last year between #12 overall with Nix and #150 overall with Rattler. Any good QBs worth a damn aren't sliding into the mid/late 1st anymore, and as teams get more desperate, the price to move up will become higher.

 

[Khelandros]

So once the draft is done, are you people going to switch from 47 pages about bitching who the Steelers should/shouldn't pick, to 47 pages of bitching about who they actually took vs should have taken?

 

[pistolpete11]

So once the draft is done, are you people going to switch from 47 pages about bitching who the Steelers should/shouldn't pick, to 47 pages of bitching about who they actually took vs should have taken?

Yes. Are you new here?

 

[xlm34]

I feel a lot of us have been pretty happy after the past two drafts. Which tbh is probably a pretty red flag when it comes to them succeeding.

 

[Peat]

So once the draft is done, are you people going to switch from 47 pages about bitching who the Steelers should/shouldn't pick, to 47 pages of bitching about who they actually took vs should have taken?

There's another point to internet forums?

My only concern here is that it seems like it has become more expensive/difficult to do this than when the Chiefs and Bills did that. Look at the 2024 draft, all of the QBs worth anything were taken by #12 overall and a ton of people thought Penix and McCarthy went way too high.

QBs seem to be going higher and higher where it seems like guys like Lamar, Allen and Mahomes wouldn't have lasted as long as when they were drafted. That's why there's a conversation about guys like Dart sliding up into round 1. I feel like it's only going to be more expensive to trade up because these guys will keep going earlier and earlier.

There were no QBs taken last year between #12 overall with Nix and #150 overall with Rattler. Any good QBs worth a damn aren't sliding into the mid/late 1st anymore, and as teams get more desperate, the price to move up will become higher.

Might be that's true. I think if that ends up being true, you've still got to hold you nose and do it. That, or adopt a whole different way of looking at QB. I saw someone post a stat of how often a non-1st round QB has made the SB in the last few years and it's a lot. I think a mentality of treating QBs as non-sacred and swinging often can go well... but obviously, I think that involves never being at the top of the market. Dart for a 1st rounder, no thank you.

 

[pistolpete11]

My only concern here is that it seems like it has become more expensive/difficult to do this than when the Chiefs and Bills did that. Look at the 2024 draft, all of the QBs worth anything were taken by #12 overall and a ton of people thought Penix and McCarthy went way too high.

QBs seem to be going higher and higher where it seems like guys like Lamar, Allen and Mahomes wouldn't have lasted as long as when they were drafted. That's why there's a conversation about guys like Dart sliding up into round 1. I feel like it's only going to be more expensive to trade up because these guys will keep going earlier and earlier.

There were no QBs taken last year between #12 overall with Nix and #150 overall with Rattler. Any good QBs worth a damn aren't sliding into the mid/late 1st anymore, and as teams get more desperate, the price to move up will become higher.

Sounds like a race to the bottom which I have no interest to participate in. I'd rather focus on building out a good team and finding a QB another way if that's the case (i.e. Brady to Tampa, Manning to Denver, Rams trading for Stafford, taking a flier on someone other teams gave up on too soon like Darnold or maybe even Fields).

Might be that's true. I think if that ends up being true, you've still got to hold you nose and do it. That, or adopt a whole different way of looking at QB. I saw someone post a stat of how often a non-1st round QB has made the SB in the last few years and it's a lot. I think a mentality of treating QBs as non-sacred and swinging often can go well... but obviously, I think that involves never being at the top of the market. Dart for a 1st rounder, no thank you.

Yeah, there might have been too much of a "we need a QB to come save us" and now it's time for a correction. In 5 years, we might look back on the 2024 Eagles as the trend setters for just building a good football team. They are already getting some credit for bringing RB back en vogue.

 

[pistolpete11]

I feel a lot of us have been pretty happy after the past two drafts. Which tbh is probably a pretty red flag when it comes to them succeeding.

We just doubled down on bitching about Pickett and Harris.

 

[pistolpete11]

One last thought before I have to do some work, but I wonder if this is still part of the transition of NIL money. I think a few of these guys would have declared this year if they weren't getting paid to stay in school. I think it's absolutely true for the guys like Allar who are getting a couple mil, but it could be true for some of the guys that would be going in the mid-rounds, too.

 

[JTG]

Yeah my concern isn't that I think the QBs in this draft are great, it's that I don't think there is really a backup plan being proposed that isn't just "keep kicking the can down the road until the Steelers are in a position to get that top QB". If you were to draft Dart this year (or even Milroe, for that matter), you'd have a guy who could possibly turn into a QB that you can win a championship with. If you don't, you absolutely don't have a guy who could possibly turn into that.

Waiting until next year may not change that, because what if the QB class next year doesn't end up any better? What if the QBs available next year are just another Dart and Milroe type? Do you kick the can down the road again and just wait until 2027? The part of the strategy that concerns me is that there is no guarantee that "next year" will yield the QB that you want to justify drafting a QB, so it feels like it could just be a never ending cycle of waiting to get a QB you may not ever end up getting.

With Fields being gone I think they'd be making a pretty serious mistake with not drafting a QB with starter's upside this year. That doesn't have to be Dart in round 1, but it probably shouldn't be less than Milroe or Ewers in round 2/3.

I thought re-signing Fields was 100% the way that needed to go. Whatever. Didn't happen

I think things would be wildly different if there was a QB in this draft worth taking. Now I'm not saying to not take a guy who doesn't drop, because that'd be ideal. Have a guy here behind Rudolph and go into next draft with the idea of bringing someone in the first round.

I get what you're saying, but to ignore the facts that these next 2 QB classes are super loaded and we will probably have a way more talented guy drop to us in the next 2 years that is better than any of the guys we are probably looking at this year cannot be ignored. It's just how things are setting up.

That being said, I like some of these guys. I'm not opposed to any of them really. I just do not think they move the needle, and if we could be staring down the barrel in the 3rd round (hopefully not until then) of a QB, you have to start looking at what they have pulled out of the 3rd round. Would any of these QBs have a greater impact than a Herbig or a Payton Wilson? Because they are both 3rd rounders. I think both are starting caliber LBs.

No correct way to skin this, but I really wouldn't waste the minimal resources we have to pick one of these guys.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, there might have been too much of a "we need a QB to come save us" and now it's time for a correction. In 5 years, we might look back on the 2024 Eagles as the trend setters for just building a good football team. They are already getting some credit for bringing RB back en vogue.

I think building a team as strong as the Eagles might be even more difficult than finding a superstar QB and building a good team around them though.

I guess all you can do is keep making smart decisions and hoping for a bit of luck. Feels like building a team in the NFL is far more reactive than in other sports I know of.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I thought re-signing Fields was 100% the way that needed to go. Whatever. Didn't happen

I think things would be wildly different if there was a QB in this draft worth taking. Now I'm not saying to not take a guy who doesn't drop, because that'd be ideal. Have a guy here behind Rudolph and go into next draft with the idea of bringing someone in the first round.

I get what you're saying, but to ignore the facts that these next 2 QB classes are super loaded and we will probably have a way more talented guy drop to us in the next 2 years that is better than any of the guys we are probably looking at this year cannot be ignored. It's just how things are setting up.

That being said, I like some of these guys. I'm not opposed to any of them really. I just do not think they move the needle, and if we could be staring down the barrel in the 3rd round (hopefully not until then) of a QB, you have to start looking at what they have pulled out of the 3rd round. Would any of these QBs have a greater impact than a Herbig or a Payton Wilson? Because they are both 3rd rounders. I think both are starting caliber LBs.

No correct way to skin this, but I really wouldn't waste the minimal resources we have to pick one of these guys.

If they pan out, absolutely. Even taking out the position difference for how much a QB would impact a game more than an OLB or ILB, those guys aren't even starters for the Steelers.

You're not going to win anything with drafting more Herbigs or Wilsons in round 3. I'm not saying that to talk down their abilities, I like both of them, but they're not making you a contender.

The logic you're putting up here is the exact logic I was saying was problematic and would result in you not actually solving your QB issues. If you're not even willing to use a 3rd rounder to draft a project QB to see if they can develop into something, what are you even doing to address the QB situation? You can't just keep saying "we can wait until next year because what if the options next year aren't any better? Or what if you can't get one of the options next year?

It doesn't matter if you have Nick Herbig as your backup OLB if you have Mason Rudolph throwing the football.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

So once the draft is done, are you people going to switch from 47 pages about bitching who the Steelers should/shouldn't pick, to 47 pages of bitching about who they actually took vs should have taken?

Yes and during.

 

[JTG]

If they pan out, absolutely. Even taking out the position difference for how much a QB would impact a game more than an OLB or ILB, those guys aren't even starters for the Steelers.

You're not going to win anything with drafting more Herbigs or Wilsons in round 3. I'm not saying that to talk down their abilities, I like both of them, but they're not making you a contender.

The logic you're putting up here is the exact logic I was saying was problematic and would result in you not actually solving your QB issues. If you're not even willing to use a 3rd rounder to draft a project QB to see if they can develop into something, what are you even doing to address the QB situation? You can't just keep saying "we can wait until next year because what if the options next year aren't any better? Or what if you can't get one of the options next year?

It doesn't matter if you have Nick Herbig as your backup OLB if you have Mason Rudolph throwing the football.

I vehmently disagree they won't make you a contender. They won't make us contenders yet - but both are legit starters. I'm not going to talk about them and derail this though. My point still stands, I'd rather bring in guys like them than any of these guys. If there was someone worth taking, totally different story. Being QB desperate and throwing shit against a wall to see what sticks...I think we have time to do better than that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I vehmently disagree they won't make you a contender. They won't make us contenders yet - but both are legit starters. I'm not going to talk about them and derail this though. My point still stands, I'd rather bring in guys like them than any of these guys. If there was someone worth taking, totally different story. Being QB desperate and throwing shit against a wall to see what sticks...I think we have time to do better than that.

Again, you're not going to win anything if you do not fix the QB position. It doesn't matter how many decent LBs you get if Mason Rudolph is throwing the football.

I think it is completely misguided to dismiss "throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks" with the QB position just because you can get some good pick for positions you are already good with. This team does not need more guys like Herbig and Wilson nearly as much as it needs a QB.

 

[JTG]

Again, you're not going to win anything if you do not fix the QB position. It doesn't matter how many decent LBs you get if Mason Rudolph is throwing the football.

I think it is completely misguided to dismiss "throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks" with the QB position just because you can get some good pick for positions you are already good with. This team does not need more guys like Herbig and Wilson nearly as much as it needs a QB.

Doesn't mean you over draft QBs. Also doesn't mean that you don't take the team to a place where they need a QB...and then go sign one...or trade up for one...or trade a bunch of picks for an established one.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Doesn't mean you over draft QBs. Also doesn't mean that you don't take the team to a place where they need a QB...and then go sign one.

How can you look at this team with Watt and Highsmith as their starting OLBs and seriously conclude "I'd rather draft a guy like Herbig in round 3 over taking a shot on a QB"? From a roster building perspective, it makes no sense.

I understand not wanting to take someone like Dart in round 1, but dismissing even using a 3rd rounder to draft a lottery ticket QB because "we don't need to overdraft someone there" is completely ridiculous. It pretty much tells me you have no intentions of actually fixing the QB situation.

 

[JTG]

How can you look at this team with Watt and Highsmith as their starting OLBs and seriously conclude "I'd rather draft a guy like Herbig in round 3 over taking a shot on a QB"? From a roster building perspective, it makes no sense.

I'm not necessarily saying I would now. But if there is a DL there in the 3rd round or Milroe...I'm taking the DL. If there is a CB...taking that too. Safety and LB depend who is there. It all depends who is sitting there.

If Dart is there in the 3rd, I'm fine with him. I'm fine with Milroe. I would not use a top 64 on any QB in this draft.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not necessarily saying I would now. But if there is a DL there in the 3rd round or Milroe...I'm taking the DL. If there is a CB...taking that too. Safety and LB depend who is there. It all depends who is sitting there.

If Dart is there in the 3rd, I'm fine with him. I'm fine with Milroe. I would not use a top 64 on any QB in this draft.

All this tells me is that you don't actually intend on attempting anything to actually fix the QB situation, which makes no sense to me.