pistolpete11
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In some ways, being better than Pickett would be worse. It would take them longer to move off him if/when he isn't good enough.
OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Off Season We dont need a QB Edition
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Not that any of us have any idea how QBs will turn out, but Dart would just be so, so underwhelming. They’re in a conference with a bunch of superhumans at the QB spot and it feels like best case with Dart is the Dalton line.
I try not to get worked up about QB picks. That position feels so random and hard to project. I think you do have to just keep taking swings until you find a guy. I'd rather take a mid-round swing this year and a 1st round swing again next year since I don't think they'll take 1st round swings in back to back years and this 1st round class is considered pretty weak.
I get the Dart/Kenny comparison but there are some differences to consider. Dart had more than one year of good production in college, he produced in college at a much younger age and is entering the league at a younger age. He also has 9 1/2 inch hands to Kenny's tiny 8 1/2 inch hands.
Watching Dart, he reminds me a bit of a cross between Rudolph and Kenny. He has Rudolph's good touch on the deep ball but lacks overall arm strength like both Kenny and Rudolph do. He has similar athleticism to Kenny too which is to say he isn't a statue in the pocket but his athleticism also isn't good enough to be much of a difference maker either. The low ceiling is a concern to where I don't think I'd take him in round one but I'm not saying he'll be a terrible NFL QB either. Just a low ceiling guy.
I get the Dart/Kenny comparison but there are some differences to consider. Dart had more than one year of good production in college, he produced in college at a much younger age and is entering the league at a younger age. He also has 9 1/2 inch hands to Kenny's tiny 8 1/2 inch hands.
Watching Dart, he reminds me a bit of a cross between Rudolph and Kenny. He has Rudolph's good touch on the deep ball but lacks overall arm strength like both Kenny and Rudolph do. He has similar athleticism to Kenny too which is to say he isn't a statue in the pocket but his athleticism also isn't good enough to be much of a difference maker either. The low ceiling is a concern to where I don't think I'd take him in round one but I'm not saying he'll be a terrible NFL QB either. Just a low ceiling guy.
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
Rudolph's number one weakness is poor pocket awareness and awful pocket mobility.
Dart does not impress at all. I would be completely shocked if he had a successful career as a starter. Would much rather take a flier on Mccord in the Mid.
bigdaddyk88
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Dart nfl comp is drew lock he doesn’t have the ability to consistently throw in tight windows and his ball can take awhile to actually get to the wr. He was in a 1 read system at least with Sanders you can talk yourself into a tua type qb
WickedWrister
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I've said this like three times but if the Steelers choose 2022 and 2025 as the two years they want to spend a mid-late 1st round pick on QB...heads should roll. Every NFL team has advance scouting for future draft classes and they HAVE to know the projected strength and weaknesses of those groups.
Snooki Stackhouse
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Yeah I think Judkins is going to go in the 2nd or early 3rd and you can get a guy with more athleticism in the late 3rd. Just makes more sense. Dart is going to go too early too. Get the QB next year.
JTG
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Honestly, if they were going to over draft a QB, I'd rather they do it with Ewers. At least he has pedigree and raw talent.
Tbf, I don't think that works with QBs. Looking at a bunch of too early mocks from last year -
PFF - Carson Beck at 5, Shedeur Sanders at 9, Quinn Ewers at 25
NBC - Carson Beck at 1, Shedeur Sanders at 9, Quinn Ewers at 10, Connor Weigman at 15
Ath - Carson Beck at 2, Quinn Ewers at 14, Shedeur Sanders at 22
TDN - Jalen Milroe at 1, Shedeur Sanders at 6, Carson Beck at 8, Cam Ward at 11, Quinn Ewers at 26
CBS - Shedeur Sanders at 1, Carson Beck at 6, Cam Ward at 9, Quinn Ewers at 12, Jalen Milroe at 25
2022
247 Sports - Spencer Rattler at 1, Sam Howell at 6, JT Daniels at 9 (4 others named as in consideration)
PFF - Spencer Rattler at 1, Sam Howell at 2, Emory Jones at 6, Malik Willis at 11, Kedon Slovis at 13
Fox - JT Daniels at 1, Desmond Ridder at 2, Spencer Rattler at 5, Sam Howell at 9, Jayden Daniels at 14, Carson Strong at 19, Kedon Slovis at 21
TWSN - Sam Howell at 1, Spencer Rattler at 2, Kedon Slovis at 4, Malik Willis at 8
I know these are media mocks and the team's scouts are probably doing a better job, but most of the guys writing these aren't total goobers and they were just wrong as hell the year before. Looking at 2024 to see whether they got a strong year right...
Walter Football - Caleb Williams at 1, Drake Maye at 4, Quinn Ewers at 7
Barstool - Caleb Williams at 3, Drake Maye at 5, Michael Penix at 28
Bleacher - Caleb Williams at 1, Drake Maye at 3, Quinn Ewers at 5, Michal Penix at 13, Bo Nix at 16, JJ McCarthy at 25
Bleacher Report can pat themselves on the back but otherwise, not a strong showing beyond spotting the top 2. And the world's belief in Quinn Ewers hasn't worked out.
Doesn't look to me like you can judge a QB class a year out.
JTG
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You can't judge exactly how it's going to shake, but you can absolutely see when pedigree is coming through, and it's coming the next 2 years.
lastcupever75
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Lolly and Williamson on their YouTube series of draft videos balked at the talk of dart at 21.
I remember years back both liked Kendrick green and he wound up being picked so maybe they have some inside knowledge.
Or it could just be a possible smokescreen the team is putting out.
I remember years back both liked Kendrick green and he wound up being picked so maybe they have some inside knowledge.
Or it could just be a possible smokescreen the team is putting out.
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bigdaddyk88
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It’s important to note neither Khan or Tomlin were at Ol miss pro day. I don’t think they would draft a qb without either being there. Tomlin was at Alabama with Milroe
lastcupever75
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WickedWrister
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The rankings are obviously fluid with guys rising and falling every single year- and of course a draft class 1+ year out will look better on paper because it doesn't account for guys that stay in school an extra year.
Like yeah, a primary reason this years QB class sucks is because guys that had 1st round potential such as Carson Beck or Quinn Ewers didn't take that next big step in their development. I also see Spencer Rattler all over the 2022 list. I think he was the #1 recruit in the country coming out of high school and had a strong Freshman season. I talk about pedigree way too much on here, but I really think that's a huge piece of the eval for these NFL GM's. Now of course that only gets you so far, you need to back it up with production and continued development. But teams love when guys that were studs in high school produce early in college, implying it's because of talent and not experience or physical advantages they won't so easily possess at the next level.
That's what makes the 2026 class so exciting. There's probably 5 or 6 guys that would go right now before Cam Ward. And a lot of them were 5 stars coming out like Manning, Nico, Klubnik, Allar. The top players are meeting or exceeding the benchmarks at every step of their development, which is what has NFL teams drooling. There's no absolute certainties in this game, but it projects to be way deeper than 2025. So yes, to an extent I do think you can judge the relative strength of a QB class a year out.
MrBrightside
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I don't think there's any chance they take Dart at 21. I think they are doing due diligence in case they trade back and maybe have 2 2nds instead and Dart is there in the 2nd.
I have heard nothing like that about the 2026 class. I've got some mild optimism given the number of lottery tickets that are getting talked about - although until I hear something from the Mannings about Archie being a one and done starter, I am going to assume including him in that class is strong strong optimism that ignores everything about the family and the little journos have said about - but I've heard nothing along the lines of "there's 5/6 guys who'd be top 10 guys in most drafts and 1OA in this one".
And in any case, I don't think that refutes the point that a year out from 2022 and 2025, nobody had them down as impending disaster years.
WickedWrister
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Yeah I just don't agree with this viewpoint that you can't spot general strengths and weaknesses a year in advance. There were plenty of people in this thread that follow college football even casually that were saying as much last fall. I came into the season pegging the QB class as average, and then soured on it as the year went on after Beck had that poor game against Bama. And then Allar returning to PSU really put it in the gutter.
Let's just make a gentleman's bet using Lance Zierleins NFL.com grades for next year. Not exactly the gold standard or anything but he's got a fair and consistent criteria that's publicly available and easy to compare across years. He has Cam Ward as QB1 with a 6.39 grade which is the lowest for the top QB in a class since he started doing this in 2014. Sanders is the only other QB he even has a starter grade on at the minimum of 6.3. That's also the t-fewest amount of starting QB grades in a class since 2014. So he's saying no high end talent and it's also shallow. You don't even have to be bullish about 2026 to imagine next year being significantly deeper.
Maybe I went a little overboard with saying 5/6 guys above Cam Ward because I do agree that Manning probably goes back for his Senior year. But I feel comfortable predicting now that we see at least 4 guys next year with a higher grade than Ward.
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Ahem. Just for clarity's sake - when you say "There's probably 5 or 6 guys that would go right now before Cam Ward", do you mean
a) There's 5/6 guys who project to be available in the 2026 draft who, if they were being drafted today as the player they are today, would go before Cam Ward
b) There's 5/6 guys who project to be available in the 2026 draft who currently project as being stronger prospects at the time of drafting than Cam Ward does right now
I read it as A, but it looks like you mean B, but I'd like to be sure before I reply.
WickedWrister
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Honestly both A and B but B is easier for me to win in an argument
I respect the honesty but A's wild, man
You think Allar and Klubnik and Nussmeier just turned down the chance to go first overall in the draft, top five for sure, for the unknowns of college football? Maybe one of them, but all three of them?But in any case, this feels like a bunch of different arguments.
Re the point that predicting QB classes a year ahead of time is really difficult - Yeah, there were people saying this wasn't a humdinger (there are also people who follow college football who say predicting QB classes a year out is a fool's errand). I don't think any of them called it being this bad to this extent. I just searched for Beck to try and get a feeling for what people thought of it, and I didn't see a lot of pushback on you saying O/U 4.5 later September.
Plus if they did, and are that accurate repeatedly, they're in the wrong job because the media people got it really wrong.
Re this next class being potentially special and next year being better than this -
I'm certainly not betting against next year being better than this, because on average, most classes will be. This year suuuuucks. It's one legit guy, one more accurate Pickett with a cool name, Jaxson Dart is a Desmon Ridder type, and from there on it's long-ass bets all the way down.
Next year being special? To me, that's betting on a coin toss. As I said, I like the number of lottery tickets. But there's been far too many falls from grace for me to start betting on guys.
I do think you're being overly low on Ward though and I think that goes for Zierlein too. Zierlein's grades effectively have him T-25th. Brugler has him 15th, Jeremiah has him 10th, and the Athletic consensus big board has him 12th. It feels like Zierlein is a lot more scared of Ward's decision making than the others, and think he'll take longer to come good. Maybe he's right but as a follower of the great god consensus, right now he is an outlier.
If there's 4 QBs in next year's class in the top 15 in Brugler's rankings, I'll recognise it is indeed special and you called it. 2024 had 3. 2021 had 4.
bigdaddyk88
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Next year’s class on paper will have guys with much higher ceilings even without Manning. Klubnik could easily make the Dart job from round 2. Sellers has more upside than Ward and Add Alar and Nico. Lavett has a tonnof tools
Ward nfl comp is Jordan love Sanders is Tua
Ward nfl comp is Jordan love Sanders is Tua
You kind of just have to hope the guys with more eligibility actually prove themselves and declare for the draft next year. Those are the most intriguing guys. Without them, it’ll probably still be a better class than this year but still one that’ll make it tough for the Steelers to make a move.
If the number one and two QBs next year are Allar and Nussmeier, then I would bet things didn’t quite end up working out with the class. And even those two guys have a lot to prove before I’d be celebrating a trade up for them.
College football will probably be more interesting for me to follow than the NFL next year though.
If the number one and two QBs next year are Allar and Nussmeier, then I would bet things didn’t quite end up working out with the class. And even those two guys have a lot to prove before I’d be celebrating a trade up for them.
College football will probably be more interesting for me to follow than the NFL next year though.
Empoleon8771
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I think Ward is a legitimately good QB prospect and Sanders is a fine QB prospect (for 1st round standards), but no one else should be going in round 1. Sanders issue isn't his talent, it's the whole circus that comes from him being Deione's son.
Dart is just a Pickett clone, probably one that's a bit better but not to the point of justifying taking a swing on him. The only way I'd be fine with drafting Dart is if they trade down with a 1st for 2 2nds and take him sometime in the 2nd. The issue with that though is that Dart is likely not making it beyond #40 overall, but also the DL that the Steelers need to draft will also very likely not be making it beyond #40 overall.
What you could do is a trade of something like #21, #83 and #185 to Chicago for #39 and #41, which is pretty close to even in trade value (992 for Steelers picks, 1000 for Bears picks) and take Dart and Williams with those two picks. However doing that makes you lose out on your 3rd and another day 3 pick, all to draft a QB I'm not all that crazy about. It just doesn't seem like a good idea.
Their plan should just be to use a 4th on whichever one of Howard or McCord is available with that pick and focus on 2026 to get the franchise QB. As is I'd probably prefer McCord with that pick.
Dart is just a Pickett clone, probably one that's a bit better but not to the point of justifying taking a swing on him. The only way I'd be fine with drafting Dart is if they trade down with a 1st for 2 2nds and take him sometime in the 2nd. The issue with that though is that Dart is likely not making it beyond #40 overall, but also the DL that the Steelers need to draft will also very likely not be making it beyond #40 overall.
What you could do is a trade of something like #21, #83 and #185 to Chicago for #39 and #41, which is pretty close to even in trade value (992 for Steelers picks, 1000 for Bears picks) and take Dart and Williams with those two picks. However doing that makes you lose out on your 3rd and another day 3 pick, all to draft a QB I'm not all that crazy about. It just doesn't seem like a good idea.
Their plan should just be to use a 4th on whichever one of Howard or McCord is available with that pick and focus on 2026 to get the franchise QB. As is I'd probably prefer McCord with that pick.
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