Well, here's the team's drives in terms of penalties, potentially explosive plays, and good first downs (I picked 2nd and 6 as a representing a good first down that could spring an explosive play as Pro Football Reference gives a 40% gain on first down as a successful play, defining explosive as 20 yard or deep target on PRF's play by play, which I'm not happy with as I don't think deep is 20+ for them but sometimes I can't find out what exactly it was).
Pittsburgh Steelers 18 at Atlanta Falcons 10 on September 8th, 2024 - Full team and player stats and box score
www.pro-football-reference.com
Drive 1 vs ATL - No penalties, no EPs, three first downs, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 2 vs ATL - No penalties, no EPs, three first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 3 vs ATL - 2 penalties, one EP, three first downs, 2 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 4 vs ATL - No penalties, one EP, three first downs, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 5 vs ATL - No penalties, no EP, one first down, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 6 vs ATL - No penalties, one EP, three first downs, 2 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 7 vs ATL - 2 penalties, one EP, two first downs, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 8 vs ATL - 1 penalty, no EP, five first downs, 2 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 9 vs ATL - No penalties, no EP, one first down, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 10 vs ATL - No penalties, no EP, two first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
So most drives vs ATL there wasn't a penalty. Remove the offset penalty on drive 8 and that's 8 out of 10 drives without losing any yards to a penalty. There were a lot of penalties but given how they were bunched up, most drives were fine.
There were four attempts at generating an explosive play. Drive 3's EP came after a Van Jefferson penalty leads to 3rd and 9. Drive 4's is the deep ball thrown on 1st down to set up the field goal at the end of the first half. Drive 6's is an incomplete deep ball thrown to Pickens on 2nd and 1. Drive 7's is the 40 yard deep ball thrown to Pickens on 1st down.
There were ten successful plays on 1st down, but only one of them resulted in an attempt at an explosive play.
So in the Atlanta game, I don't think attempts at explosive plays were being held back by penalties because 8 out of 10 drives weren't impeded by penalties, or by a lack of success on first down because they didn't do bad there. They just didn't try many and half the time they did it was because they were out of options.
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 at Denver Broncos 6 on September 15th, 2024 - Full team and player stats and box score
www.pro-football-reference.com
Drive 1 vs DEN - No penalties, no EPs, one first down, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 2 vs DEN - No penalties, no EPs, six first downs, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 3 vs DEN - 3 penalties, 1 EP, five first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 4 vs DEN - 1 penalty, 1 EP, four first downs, 2 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 5 vs DEN - No penalties, no EPs, two first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 6 vs DEN - No penalties, 1 EP, one first down, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 7 vs DEN - No penalties, 1 EP, two first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 8 vs DEN - 1 penalty, 1 EP, two first downs, 1 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 9 vs DEN - 1 penalty, no EP, one first down, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 10 vs DEN - No penalty, 1 EP, two first downs, no 2nd and 6 or better
Drive 11 vs DEN - No penalty, no EP, one first down, no 2nd and 6 or better
So very different game. 5/11 drives with a penalty losing yards.
Six attempts at generating an explosive play. Drive 3 is that Fields dart called back for the Jones hold after Jones other penalties put them on 3rd and 18. Drive 4 is a 27 yarder to Van Jefferson that draws DPI after Warren sets up 2nd and 6. Drive 6 is an incomplete to Van Jefferson on 3rd and 8. Drive 7 is a 37 yarder to Pickens that draws DPI on 1st and 10. Drive 8 is a deep to Austin on a 3rd and 12 caused by a Heyward holding penalty. Drive 10 is a deep to Austin on 3rd and 3 that draws an unnecessary roughness penalty.
Only four successful first down plays (yikes) and only one of them sets up an explosive play attempt. But we still get more explosive plays over all. Part of that is deliberate because they knew this reffing crew called a lot of DPI and wanted to cash in. Part of that I think is they kept getting in holes, partly due to penalties and partly due to just not being very successful on first down.
I don't want to average them out because I feel like an average of two very different games isn't all that useful.
But I feel like that in both games, it consistently looks like penalties lead to more deep shots than less, and that they're not using successful first downs to set up deep shots all that often. They use their run first tendency to set up the deep shot, occasionally but it doesn't seem to matter if its successful and they run it from first down a fair amount anyway. I think it's fair to say that. It mightn't be fair to judge what the offence could be based on sloppy execution, but I think it's fair to judge on what they're trying to do and I don't think the penalties and stuffed first downs are what's keeping the explosive plays down. Touchdowns maybe, but not explosive plays. I overstated where they are on the explosive plays now that I look at the facts but I do think that the problem isn't the execution.
And I think the problem is they just didn't want to all that much. That they would rather avoid the turnover risk and just grind it up the field because they believe that gives them a better chance of winning.
Maybe it changes. I really hope so. But that's the problem I see.
edit: And that's a far longer reply than I thought it would be. Your point seemed legitimate but at the same time it just didn't seem right from what I remembered, so I thought I'd look at what broke down when.
