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OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: 5 and 2 Justin who? Hand the Fields to Wilson

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Empoleon8771 said:
And people just used that to rally the "this is why Fields is getting benched" and "Fields can't see the field" narratives. But if you look at PFF's separation numbers, Austin is bad at getting open:
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a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.
 
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Peat said:
a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.
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Yeah I think the bolded is an entirely fair point as well and just brings up the lack of context some of the arguments being made with that. People used that article to make the argument of "Austin is always open and Fields never sees him". My point with the PFF stats wasn't that they're 100% right and Austin is bad at separation, but they were two significantly different results based on two separate analyses of the games.

My overall point in that post was people making disingenuous argument based on either data without context or incomplete data, and I think the interpretation you put out regarding PFF is completely reasonable and why just looking at just one article or one stat doesn't paint the full picture.
 
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Peat said:
I value 1st downs. I have no idea whether the amount of 1st downs that Fields has got in situations where he's decided to scramble is good or bad compared to what other QBs achieve with their legs and arm in similar positions.

I zoom out and I see a guy who is, touchdowns aside, not as good at rushing as he was at his old team. I can zoom in and give reasons why but that is the long and the short of it. Fields' results here as a rusher are generally worse than his results in Chicago who were nobody's idea of an offensive playground.

Do I think that's his fault? Almost definitely not. But did I expect more? Yeah.

And as such, do I think the value he's providing to the team with his rushing is perhaps less than his reputation? Yeah. It's great he's lethal in the red zone but the team needs to get there more often and part of why they're not is they're not getting the best out of Fields' legs.

eta: Disappointing and no big deal aren't always the same thing either. Muth's stats are decent for a TE, but still kind of disappointing after all the hype about how much Smith loves him some TEs. Fields' stats are far from awful, but for a guy who's maybe the most talented running QB in the league after Jackson, they're a bit disappointing.

And I will always be harsh on every would-be starting QB this team has that's past what I consider the major development window at 3 years because it's the one position you can't really bullshit your way through with 'good enough'.

But I will add this as what is hopefully the most important point - I am disappointed in the team's usage of Fields on this score much more than I am disappointed in Fields' himself.
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It doesn’t appear to me that you are really evaluating him on balance - especially so in relation to the recent past two seasons of Steelers offensive output. Their passing was anemic the last 2 seasons and they have an even worse cast of offensive players this season with Johnson gone (for better or worse).

Back to Fields, while I am in agreement that there is still some meat on the bone in terms of potential rushing yards, a major contributing factor to that is:

1. Suboptimal playcalling - which you concede - along with the predictability of the offense itself leading to teams stacking 9 players in the box (and the Steelers trying to run the ball anyway. The designed runs for Fields are a little too much too often when they are happening outside of 3rd down or the red zone. So his rushing numbers are going to be skewed a little lower because they are happening a little too frequently where the ceiling of that run is on the lower side (as opposed to an RPO or designed draw play).

2. Fields developing as a passer. His completion percentage is up significantly and would be even higher if not for some drops along with PI calls (the bs ones called on the offense along with the ones called against the defense which have negated some huge passes that were right on target). Add to that, he isn’t looking to his legs as being the 2nd read anymore and appears to be going deeper into his progressions. I would argue that perhaps the pendulum has swung too far and he now isn’t looking to run early enough on many designed pass plays -to his detriment.
 
Peat said:
a) PFF's numbers come from someone watching the video and don't always agree with the numbers of other people watching the video (or location data, which I think says Pickens is one of the three most open WRs in the league rather than average like PFF)

b) PFF's numbers are an average so not proof that there aren't weeks where a guy is open and not getting noticed (which is possible given that Austin's grade has improved iirc)

c) I think it's PFF whose WR separation numbers for Carolina changed wildly after Young was benched for Dalton. Certainly somebody's was. And I found this gem while searching for confirmation:

"Separation for this stat is measured at the moment the throw is made"

So is Austin never open, or is Fields too slow to see it and throw when he is (but improving on the score)? Or is Austin mainly open on decoy and secondary routes when Fields is being told to look elsewhere?

Who knows, but I don't think the PFF numbers hold a definite answer.
Click to expand...
Averages are a terrible, terrible stat for something like separation. There are so many other factors involved, like if a guy is trying to set an illegal pick route on another defender, his separation is going to drop while the beneficiary's is going to increase, just based on the play design.
 
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Jaded-Fan said:
Win-Win


Either it works and Wilson proves that he is the missing link for the offense, or we all get to bash Tomlin some more.

Which do you think is most likely?
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I will 100% support Wilson to do his absolute best. I was happy when they acquired him (given what we had along with the magic beans aspect of the acquisition). It’s just very, very difficult to imagine him even treading water behind this offense line, WR group, and offensive scheme. I also highly doubt that his twice-injured calf is fully healed, and thus his immobility will add an anchor and exclamation point to the already difficult lift he is facing.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Yeah I think the bolded is an entirely fair point as well and just brings up the lack of context some of the arguments being made with that. People used that article to make the argument of "Austin is always open and Fields never sees him". My point with the PFF stats wasn't that they're 100% right and Austin is bad at separation, but they were two significantly different results based on two separate analyses of the games.

My overall point in that post was people making disingenuous argument based on either data without context or incomplete data, and I think the interpretation you put out regarding PFF is completely reasonable and why just looking at just one article or one stat doesn't paint the full picture.
Click to expand...

D'accord.

And I've never entirely liked the "he was open videos!". I mean, there's guys open for everyone every play. But without knowing the concept, or how often every guy does it... it's hard to assign much meaning to it without looking at a ton of other shit, as you say.

I can add that the Next Gen stats says Fields is only throwing into tight coverage (defender within a yard of attacker at time of completion/incompletion) 11.9% of the time, which is bottom 10. So if we're saying Fields only throws in time for a guy to already be there, that's not true. But, without digging, I don't know how PFF assigns open.

bambamcam4ever said:
Averages are a terrible, terrible stat for something like separation. There are so many other factors involved, like if a guy is trying to set an illegal pick route on another defender, his separation is going to drop while the beneficiary's is going to increase, just based on the play design.
Click to expand...

Agreed although as best I can tell, PFF only does it for guys getting targeted so that particular factor won't be involved.

Tbh, in general, I'm questioning how much I value averages for a lot of NFL stats. I don't think it brings enough detail to who's making game changing plays, regulation plays, and so on.

Empoleon8771 said:
I mean if Wilson is shit and Tomlin continues to stick with him, I don't think that is a "win" in my eyes.

I want this team to win, not me shit on Tomlin.
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I'd like the win but most of all this season, I want questions answered on what this team can do offensively with Tomlin in charge and the possibility of change. I can live with Wilson imploding more than I can more scrappy, safe football.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
I mean if Wilson is shit and Tomlin continues to stick with him, I don't think that is a "win" in my eyes.

I want this team to win, not me shit on Tomlin.
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Stop trying to take my dreams!

I was kidding, but not.

I want this to work too.

But, if it doesn't let me have my consolation prize fun.
 
UnrealMachine said:
It doesn’t appear to me that you are really evaluating him on balance - especially so in relation to the recent past two seasons of Steelers offensive output. Their passing was anemic the last 2 seasons and they have an even worse cast of offensive players this season with Johnson gone (for better or worse).
Click to expand...

I am very much opposed to grading on the curve of previous Steelers' offences. I don't want to give credit for being better than a shambles, I want to give credit for looking like a real NFL player. I know sometimes the current shamble means grading on a curve but I still want to remember what a real offence looks like.

In any case, when it comes to Fields' running, my main comparison is what Fields has done in the past.

UnrealMachine said:
Back to Fields, while I am in agreement that there is still some meat on the bone in terms of potential rushing yards, a major contributing factor to that is:

1. Suboptimal playcalling - which you concede - along with the predictability of the offense itself leading to teams stacking 9 players in the box (and the Steelers trying to run the ball anyway. The designed runs for Fields are a little too much too often when they are happening outside of 3rd down or the red zone. So his rushing numbers are going to be skewed a little lower because they are happening a little too frequently where the ceiling of that run is on the lower side (as opposed to an RPO or designed draw play).
Click to expand...

Absolutely. This team's running game sucks before the runner even starts. The corollary is in terms of talking what Fields is here and what his value is, if one of his main selling points is hamstrung, then so is his value.

UnrealMachine said:
2. Fields developing as a passer. His completion percentage is up significantly and would be even higher if not for some drops along with PI calls (the bs ones called on the offense along with the ones called against the defense which have negated some huge passes that were right on target). Add to that, he isn’t looking to his legs as being the 2nd read anymore and appears to be going deeper into his progressions. I would argue that perhaps the pendulum has swung too far and he now isn’t looking to run early enough on many designed pass plays -to his detriment.
Click to expand...

Hmm.

His scramble to attempt ratio this season is a scramble every 10.62 attempts. Last season it was 11.62. There's some movement but I don't think what is happening is that he's turning down great scrambling opportunities to throw. Maybe he's waiting too long to set off but I don't think that's the case from the eye test.

And developing as a passer and reader of the game shouldn't stop him being a good runner.



So. Yeah. I could have phrased this better as the team is killing some of his value. But I think they are. And him being deadly in the red zone only does so much to mitigate the team's struggles in getting there.
 
I'm not insane about the idea of adding Williams but he's absolutely better than nothing. He's a guy I really wanted in the off-season and I'm not going to write him off because of a couple of bad games as a poor fit with Rodgers on the Jets. If the cost is cheap, I'd absolutely go for it.
 
Hilarious 5 minutes in UGA-Texas.

Refs make a horrible PI call against Texas negating an interception and return to the UGA 9. Fans begin throwing bottles on field. 3 minutes later refs conference and decide that they made the call.

They got to the right call but insane that they caved to fans throwing objects at them.
 
ChaosAgent said:
Hilarious 5 minutes in UGA-Texas.

Refs make a horrible PI call against Texas negating an interception and return to the UGA 9. Fans begin throwing bottles on field. 3 minutes later refs conference and decide that they made the call.

They got to the right call but insane that they caved to fans throwing objects at them.
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It was even funnier when the guy whose job it is to explain the refs potential ruling was telling the herb street this play was non reviewable and the referee must have over ruled another one after discussion like they didn’t see the replay in stadium or the fans reaction
Georgia was the better team no doubt but the playoffs are going to tick people off because the sec will get 4 teams minimum and the big 10 also could get 4. A 2 loss sec non champ is getting in over a 1 loss big 12 acc non champ
 
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Lot of pressure on Russ and Tomlin tonight as we need to continue to bank some wins in this part of the schedule. One of the best pass defenses we'll play this year, this is not a team that I want to be in 3rd and longs against all night. I would hope we see Fields in some RZ packages.

Need another efficient performance from Najee.
 
It’s gonna be a really interesting week if Russ doesn’t play well. I don’t agree with the decision at all but I do get the logic behind it.

This all depends on what kind of leash Wilson has.
 
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