The offseason begins

What's so exciting about this draft is I truly have no f***ing clue what the Bills will do.

They could trade up and it wouldn't surprise me.

They could trade down and it wouldn't surprise me.

They could draft CB, DT, Edge, WR, or even S and it wouldn't surprise me.

There are just so many different ways this could end up happening. Probably the only thing that would surprise me is RB in conjunction with a Cook trade.
 
Nah. I think we see Beane repeat what he did last year and trade back. Mid 30's or so. I'd rather see him nab Grant if he's available at 30 and trade down for Amos/Revel.
I don’t love Grant. I prefer Nolan and Harmon, in that order.

And, I prefer Tyliek Williams or Alfred Collins in the 2nd to Grant in the 1st.
 
We all have our preference. I honestly wouldn't be upset with any of those 3 guys. What do you dislike about Grant?
It’s not that I don’t like him, I just don’t love spending a 1st round pick on a defensive lineman who doesn’t rush the passer. He’s a premier run defender, but he’s not a super productive pass rusher. I like a player like that in the 2nd. Alfred Collins and Tyliek Williams are basically as good as Grant at defending the run. But Grant gets talked about as a top 15 player because he seemingly has the athletic traits to be effective rushing the passer. But, as Brett Kollman (I think) quips, “If he’s a good pass rusher, why doesn’t he pass rush good?” Harmon and Nolen both get after the passer AND defend the rush above average. That’s why I like them better.
 
I think Beane should trade down and pick up a 3rd. An article in ESPN confirmed what I’ve been thinking for a while. Reid talked to NFL executives who think there are less than 15 players with 1st round grades. After that it could be a lot of surprises depending on team grades. I think that’s ripe for trade downs.

ESPN draft notes
 
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X receiver: Coleman, high pick last year
Z receiver: Palmer, big UFA addition this year
Y receiver: Shakir, big extension this year

I do wonder where people who project a first round WR to the Bills envision him playing. I agree we need a field stretcher added to the room, but using our 1st round pick on a guy that will finish fourth in snaps doesn't excite me at all.
 
I’m sticking with penciling in a CB in rd 1. Bills visits with Revel and Amos point that way also.

Amos is probably my favorite CB prospect in the draft, but I just noticed that Brugler had him as his 93rd rated prospect in his top 100 he released in February. I'm really looking forward to seeing if he stays ranked that low when he releases the Beast, and if so reading about why he's ranked so low.

I like the DTs and CBs so much that I can't see myself upset as long as we grab one of each in our first 3 picks.
 
Most of the smart people I follow think Hunter is going to be a CB with some plays mixed in on offense. So if we hypothetically imagine he hits the highest of high ceilings and develops into a Pat Surtain or a Sauce Gardner on defense, and maybe a gadget player like Dante Hall on offense? That would be best case scenario in my mind.

After considering his ceiling, I then look at this through the lens of - would I give up that package for a combination of Pat Surtain and Dante Hall? And the answer to that question is a resounding no. As others have mentioned, those picks should net a starting DT, starting CB, rotational edge or WR, and two more starters next year. Just way too much ammo for a single player that hasn't spent enough time at one position to really know what his ceiling will be.
I've also seen many of the experts project him at CB , but I forsee the exact opposite for Hunter. I think he's primarily a WR at the NFL level and a high end one at that (This is just my opinion after watching a bunch of Colorado games, studying his film and seeing some of the Colorado pro day). He's absolutely talented enough to be a starting CB, but my gut tells me he'll want to play WR full time if he has to choose. While he's a little rough around the edges he has some absolutely elite qualities. He'll be a player that defenses have to focus their gameplan on week in and week out. He may not be the 1st overall pick in this draft, but I think he's absolutely the best offensive player in the draft.
X receiver: Coleman, high pick last year
Z receiver: Palmer, big UFA addition this year
Y receiver: Shakir, big extension this year

I do wonder where people who project a first round WR to the Bills envision him playing. I agree we need a field stretcher added to the room, but using our 1st round pick on a guy that will finish fourth in snaps doesn't excite me at all.
None of those guys are good enough or established enough to disregard the idea of taking a WR in the 1st round, at least in theory. In fact that duo of outside WR's might be one of the poorest sets in the NFL. That said, outside of Hunter the top end of this WR class is really underwhelming and I can't realistically see them moving up high enough to pursue him. For better or worse they are committed to those 3 as our core WR for this coming season. I do hope they target a guy on day 2 or 3 just to keep some competition brewing in that WR group.
 


The dolphins are 6-7 over the last 3 seasons when Armstead doesn't play. 22-16 when he does play.

This is catasrophic for them.

That's a huge loss. He was still very, very good for them, though I can't comment on last season. I didn't pay much attention to them because they were irrelevant by week 10.
 

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