Toggle sidebar

The offseason begins

Zman5778 said:
I know you're banging the trade down drum (as always)......but given the number of picks we own versus number of roster spots available, I think a trade UP in the 1st and/or 2nd is MUCH more likely than a trade down.
Click to expand...
People thought there was no way they would make 10 picks last year and they made 10 picks.

I won't be shocked if Beane once again trades back early and then trades up on days 2 and 3 and they take 8-10 guys.

They may not have a lot of starter jobs open, but there are some spots with some sneaky depth needs both for potential spots on the 53, but needs for the 90 man roster and competition for PS spots.

Given that Beane has talked about how it can be hard to get priority UDFAs to sign in Buffalo because the roster is so good, you could see some 6th & 7th round picks that are really priority UDFA guys that they take because they don't like their odds of signing them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zman5778
Jim Bob said:
It would be eyebrow raising not because I don't like the prospect, but given who they already have signed at the position and given that they used a 2nd round pick at the position in the 2024 draft.
Click to expand...
I think the safeties are more important for the defense than corners. With Benford signed, they can get away with developing to other corner.

Also, I think there will be multiple DTs available at the end of the 2nd round.

If Beane trades down, adds a late 3rd, and then trades up from the early 4th, a draft could look like this:

2nd: Watts
2nd: Collins or West
2nd: Collins, West, Phillips
3rd: Royals, Williams, Bond
3rd: Grant, Savaiinaea, Milum, Strong, etc.
 
Der Jaeger said:
I think the safeties are more important for the defense than corners. With Benford signed, they can get away with developing to other corner.

Also, I think there will be multiple DTs available at the end of the 2nd round.

If Beane trades down, adds a late 3rd, and then trades up from the early 4th, a draft could look like this:

2nd: Watts
2nd: Collins or West
2nd: Collins, West, Phillips
3rd: Royals, Williams, Bond
3rd: Grant, Savaiinaea, Milum, Strong, etc.
Click to expand...
The challenge is that they also require time on task at safety. That's why Damar beat out Edwards and Bishop last season.

And with Rapp, Bishop, and Hamlin all back and the redemption project in Forest, I could see them not feeling the need to invest in safety unless they get to a spot where a safety is far and away the best player on their board.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Digable5
Jim Bob said:
The challenge is that they also require time on task at safety. That's why Damar beat out Edwards and Bishop last season.

And with Rapp, Bishop, and Hamlin all back and the redemption project in Forest, I could see them not feeling the need to invest in safety unless they get to a spot where a safety is far and away the best player on their board.
Click to expand...
Agreed. S would need to be the best on their board. Which is why I'd consider Watts after a trade down from 30.

I don't agree with your assessment of safety. If Beane can draft Emmanwori, Watts, etc., I don't think they'll think for a nanosecond about cutting Forest.
 
Der Jaeger said:
Agreed. S would need to be the best on their board. Which is why I'd consider Watts after a trade down from 30.

I don't agree with your assessment of safety. If Beane can draft Emmanwori, Watts, etc., I don't think they'll think for a nanosecond about cutting Forest.
Click to expand...
Of course they would cut Forest. But, I don't think they are in a position to spend their first pick on a S that probably isn't playing a ton as a rookie.
 
Jim Bob said:
Of course they would cut Forest. But, I don't think they are in a position to spend their first pick on a S that probably isn't playing a ton as a rookie.
Click to expand...
I don't think Beane and McDermott think that way. Rookies don't play a ton for them anyway. I think they'd be perfectly fine with taking a safety early, knowing that player will be a contributor next season. That's basically what they did with Bishop.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Digable5
Der Jaeger said:
I don't think Beane and McDermott think that way. Rookies don't play a ton for them anyway. I think they'd be perfectly fine with taking a safety early, knowing that player will be a contributor next season. That's basically what they did with Bishop.
Click to expand...
With the more pressing needs at CB, DE, and 1TDT in 2025 and beyond, I would be surprised if they used a top 2 round pick on a S two years in a row. And I would be especially surprised if they used their first pick on a S and roll with Dane Jackson at CB2 to start the season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Digable5
Jim Bob said:
With the more pressing needs at CB, DE, and 1TDT in 2025 and beyond, I would be surprised if they used a top 2 round pick on a S two years in a row. And I would be especially surprised if they used their first pick on a S and roll with Dane Jackson at CB2 to start the season.
Click to expand...
That's what we all think. That's not necessarily how Beane thinks.

This is the same GM who executed a hard reset of the roster, to include Diggs, when nearly everyone on the board didn't think he would.

Beane and McDermott have a type. They've taken a corner high twice with a 50% hit rate. They've filled the other corner with a combination of free agents, trades, and lower draft choices. I don't see Beane taking another high swing for a CB. The way Babich defense works, you don't need shutdown corners. But you do need really good safeties.

There was no player who I thought looked more like a Buffalo Bill this past season than Watts. He's a college version of Micah Hyde: smart, athletic, great ball skills. The only part that gives me pause is that he's a grad student at Notre Dame, and that doesn't fit the age profile that Beane likes.

Same applies at 1DT. We think that player needs to be a space eater. I think Beane and McDermott are looking for a penetrator. Board perspective vs. what the Bills think.

I wouldn't take Watts at 30. But if Beane trades down, I think he's a fit.
 
Der Jaeger said:
If you ban the tush push, then what happens when runners are in the pile and offensive linemen are pushing still?

Seems that if you ban the tush push, then offensive linemen cannot push the runner downfield on normal plays either. I don't care either way as long as it's consistent.
Click to expand...
AFAIK the way they worded the rule proposal is that a player lined up behind another player cannot push that player forward. That would continue to allow o-lineman to push forward as plays develop.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Der Jaeger
I don't think the Bills need to move on from Cook right now. The long term plan should be to get Ray Davis more carries this season, and draft another runner who compliments Davis. Then just let Cook walk as a free agent, so tag him and trade him.

I don't think the Bills are in a position to develop a runner while he's starting. They need someone to produce. Cook will be motivated because one way or another, he's playing for a pay day.
 
  • Like
Reactions: brian_griffin, SundherDome and Chaos2k7
Der Jaeger said:
I don't think the Bills need to move on from Cook right now. The long term plan should be to get Ray Davis more carries this season, and draft another runner who compliments Davis. Then just let Cook walk as a free agent, so tag him and trade him.

I don't think the Bills are in a position to develop a runner while he's starting. They need someone to produce. Cook will be motivated because one way or another, he's playing for a pay day.
Click to expand...
And I think the Bills like the 50/25/25 split of snaps because it keeps all three RBs fresh. But, it will be interesting to see if they get him more snaps if Cook stays healthy.

I think I saw that Ty Johnson led the NFL in yards per touch for a RB last year when they re-signed him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Der Jaeger
Jim Bob said:
And I think the Bills like the 50/25/25 split of snaps because it keeps all three RBs fresh. But, it will be interesting to see if they get him more snaps if Cook stays healthy.

I think I saw that Ty Johnson led the NFL in yards per touch for a RB last year when they re-signed him.
Click to expand...
I think that approach works. Johnson is a great change of pace and receiving back.

In Cook's rookie season (2022), here was the breakdown, from 430 rushing attempts by the Bills:
Singletary: 177 attempts (41%)
Allen: 124 attempts (29%)
Cook: 89 attempts (21%)
Moss/Hines/Duke Johnson: 25 attempts (6%)

2023, 512 attempts:
Cook: 237 attempts (46%)
Allen: 111 attempts (22%)
Murray: 79 attempts (15%)
Harris/Fournette: 35 attempts (7%)
Johnson: 30 attempts (6%)

2024, 491 attempts:
Cook: 207 attempts (42%)
Davis: 113 attempts (23%)
Allen: 102 attempts (21%)
Johnson: 41 attempts (8%)

Taking Allen out of the equation, the Bills have a lead sled dog runner who gets 40-45% of rushes. That's been Singletary and then Cook. Then they have a secondary rusher who gets around 20-25% of carries. That was Cook, then became a combination of Murray/Harris/Fournette, and eventually Davis. Then they use the pass catching RB as a rusher around 6-8% of runs. That was Hines-ish, then Johnson the last two seasons.

I'd love to see Beane go get a big, workhorse style back who is different than Cook and Davis. Cam Skattebo, Kaleb Johnson, Damien Martinez, Ollie Gordon, or Raheim Sanders. A bigger RB who runs with some violence. The latter two back had better years in college in 2023 and could be had later in the draft.

My preference for a bigger back would be to reduce Allen's running total to just sneaks, scrambles, and maybe the odd power run. Allen's preservation should start to creep into Brady's thinking.

I'd love to have this RB breakdown:
RB1: All purpose, 40-45% of carries (Cook, eventually making way to Davis)
RB2: Power, 20% of runs (not currently on the roster)
RB3: Pass catching, change of pace back, 5-10% of carries (Johnson)

But, Beane may see this differently, with the RB2 as more of a developmental position to take over RB1.
 
A mock that I can sometimes get on PFN and make, and would be available about 50% of the time on PFF, is 30 to the Saints for 40 and 93. About half the time, Burden or Golden makes it to 30 (mostly Burden for some odd reason). For PFF, I run the mock controlling Buffalo and the Saints to get around not having a subscription, so I can't make trades. I just make picks for the Saints at 30 and Buffalo at 40 and 93.

Saints go with BPA at 9, which isn't receiver. Then the see Burden (or Golden) falling and make a move. Bills drop back to 40.

At 40, Bills get the choice of DBs: Watts, Amos, Hairston, Revel. Bradyn Swinson is also an option. I went best DB on the PFF list (sorry @Jim Bob)

At 56, there are some interesting options. DEs available are Ivey, Kennard and Stewart. Collins, West, and Phillips are DTs available. With the DEs rated higher, I went best DE available, which is Ivey. Ivey is a bigger DE which the Bills seem to like.

At 62, all three DTs listed above are still available. I applied a little Beane and McDermott preference to the three, since they are closely rated. Collins and West are older. Phillips is a RS sophomore with some more developmental runway. Phillips' RAS is 6.76 and West is 9.15. I eventually went with the RAS and West.

At 93, Savion Williams and Bond are available. There are also some pretty strong OL candidates: Mbow, Cam Williams, Charles Grant, Belton. Beane has been a futures type of thinker with his 3rd rounders, taking players like Bernard, Williams, and Carter when he seemingly didn't need them. So really, it's take your pick. I went with Savion Williams, because Beane likes bigger receivers, and I think Buffalo can get one of those lineman in the 4th round at pick 109..

Recap:
40: Xavier Watts, S Notre Dame
56: Jared Ivey, DE Mississippi
62: CJ West, DT Indiana
93: Savion Williams, WR TCU

Make different picks if you'd like, but I did this just to give everyone and idea why I like the trade down form 30 idea.
 
McD very popular at the owners meetings this morning

photo credit SalC
1743460156271.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom