Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

This is why Cleveland's situation is soooooo bad.

Philly had a good team and went for it. They'll pay for it later, but flags fly forever.

San Fran at least has a team worthy of going for it (when not on IR).

New Orleans is too stubborn to do a needed reset.

But Cleveland...they decided to go all in with Deshaun Watson and have extremely little to show for it. And their cap is f***ed for years to come.

Beane's done a great job of making sure to keep cap flexibility, but now is the time to pull a Philly. Do what you need to in order to load back up.
The perk of having an elite QB is that even during our reset years with a lot of dead cap, we still win 13 games and make the AFC championship. That gives me even more comfort with going all in.
 
This is why Cleveland's situation is soooooo bad.

Philly had a good team and went for it. They'll pay for it later, but flags fly forever.

San Fran at least has a team worthy of going for it (when not on IR).

New Orleans is too stubborn to do a needed reset.

But Cleveland...they decided to go all in with Deshaun Watson and have extremely little to show for it. And their cap is f***ed for years to come.

Beane's done a great job of making sure to keep cap flexibility, but now is the time to pull a Philly. Do what you need to in order to load back up.
The challenge is when those void years come due.

Do you want one or two more years of Josh Allen's prime hampered with boatloads of dead cap again?
 

Maybe: The teams that Garrett puts over the top (4)​

There are a handful of teams with championship aspirations after this season that could make a serious push for Garrett. These four would have to stretch financially and see Garrett as the final piece of the puzzle to make the deal work, but it wouldn't be hard to convince themselves of the fit.

i

Buffalo Bills. The Bills have been here before. In 2022, after they blew a lead with 13 seconds left in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs in the playoffs, despite their offense scoring 36 points, general manager Brandon Beane pushed all-in. He signed Von Miller in free agency, handing the edge rusher a six-year, $120 million deal with $45 million guaranteed at signing. Between a torn ACL and a suspension for off-field conduct, that deal turned out to be a disaster for Buffalo.

The move was out of character for Beane and the Bills, but the logic made sense. They believed they needed an unblockable player to take down Patrick Mahomes. Three seasons later, the Bills still need that defender, and after the Super Bowl, they have even more evidence of how a great pass rush can be the great equalizer against Mahomes. With Miller likely to be released soon, they will have added cap room and space in their pass rush rotation. Greg Rousseau is entering the fifth-year option of his rookie deal, but is he enough to slow down Mahomes?
 


Required reading since the Bills should be looking at DL early.
 
James Cook offensive snaps in his career:

2022 - 269 (24.79%)
2023 - 634 (54.47%)
2024 - 485 (44.58%)

In comparison in 2024:

Saquon Barkley - 801 (69.23%)
Josh Jacobs - 678 (62.55%)

I have a hard time believing that Cook is worth $3M more per year than Barkley & Jacobs.

Screenshot 2025-02-13 110619.jpg


Cook had a massive jump in TD production in 2024. But, outside of that, along with being better at not dropping passes and not losing a single fumble, he just doesn't have the usage and volume stats to be worth a top of market ($15M per year would be #2 behind CMC) deal, IMO.
 
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James Cook offensive snaps in his career:

2022 - 269 (24.79%)
2023 - 634 (54.47%)
2024 - 485 (44.58%)

In comparison in 2024:

Saquon Barkley - 801 (69.23%)
Josh Jacobs - 678 (62.55%)

I have a hard time believing that Cook is worth $3M more per year than Barkley & Jacobs.

View attachment 976591

Cook had a massive jump in TD production in 2024. But, outside of that, along with being better at not dropping passes and not losing a single fumble, he just doesn't have the usage and volume stats to be worth a top of market ($15M per year would be #2 behind CMC) deal, IMO.

It sucks because he's definitely a special player but his approach to all of this (and his brother being an asshat and egging it on) is indicative of how far off he is gonna be in terms of AAV when they sit down about a new contract.

I'm still not entirely sold on Davis having the size or gamechanging ability to be a guy who gets more than 5-10 carries a game but Ty Johnson is still very intriguing.
 
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If anyone is interested...
View attachment 976601

I would suggest actually getting that design from 26 Shirts who came up with it and will donate a portion of sales to someone in need.
 
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It sucks because he's definitely a special player but his approach to all of this (and his brother being an asshat and egging it on) is indicative of how far off he is gonna be in terms of AAV when they sit down about a new contract.

I'm still not entirely sold on Davis having the size or gamechanging ability to be a guy who gets more than 5-10 carries a game but Ty Johnson is still very intriguing.
The huge disconnect is that Cook wants to be paid like a bell cow #1 RB when that is not how he has been utilized yet in his career.

His snaps and touches were down in 2024 compared to 2023 and his TD took a huge jump up. That lends to the idea that he can't handle the larger workload that most $10M+ per year RBs handle.

I just hope Cook is fine with the big raise he gets in 2025 (he's made around $4.25M total in his first three years and this year he gets over $5M due to performance escalators).

Then he can cash in next offseason.
 
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Cook is a very skilled player and can be an asset to any team but I think the performance for return at an elite rb salary doesn’t make a lot of sense. If the qb and offensive line are buzzing you could probably do just fine with a mid-range guy in FA or another day 2 pick.
 

I would suggest actually getting that design from 26 Shirts who came up with it and will donate a portion of sales to someone in need.

I did not see it there when I first checked for some reason. We do always support local if/when we can.
 
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A few interesting thoughts, re: Bills trades/Myles Garrett

A trade post June 1 trade for Garrett actually saves Cleveland a little bit of cap space, vs a Pre June 1 trade has them take on 16M more dead cap.

Von Miller pre June 1 cut gives us 8M in cap space

A post June 1 cut gives us 17M in cap space.

Typically, you would probably cut Von Miller earlier so you have the cap space to spend on UFAs/draft picks etc. However....if you had a handshake deal in place for Post June 1 (you can't do a post June 1 designation for trades like releases)

What WOULD make sense is trying to move one of our 2nd round picks this year for a 2nd round pick next year. Heck, we could even 'swap' a 2025 2nd with CLE for their 2026 2nd and then just trade it them as part of the Garrett deal.

Would would be hilarious to me is if the deal for Garrett gets, essentially, announced around the draft but is post June 1 deal, so the Bills front office just has to keep denying questions about Garrett until the deal is finalized for like 2 months.
 
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It's too bad Cook has gone full heel and is going in with the mindset of making big demands and having a potentially dirty negotiation. Loved him this year but he ain't worth what he's asking for and they may have to move on.
 
A few interesting thoughts, re: Bills trades/Myles Garrett

A trade post June 1 trade for Garrett actually saves Cleveland a little bit of cap space, vs a Pre June 1 trade has them take on 16M more dead cap.

Von Miller pre June 1 cut gives us 8M in cap space

A post June 1 cut gives us 17M in cap space.

Typically, you would probably cut Von Miller earlier so you have the cap space to spend on UFAs/draft picks etc. However....if you had a handshake deal in place for Post June 1 (you can't do a post June 1 designation for trades like releases)

What WOULD make sense is trying to move one of our 2nd round picks this year for a 2nd round pick next year. Heck, we could even 'swap' a 2025 2nd with CLE for their 2026 2nd and then just trade it them as part of the Garrett deal.

Would would be hilarious to me is if the deal for Garrett gets, essentially, announced around the draft but is post June 1 deal, so the Bills front office just has to keep denying questions about Garrett until the deal is finalized for like 2 months.
I've been posting about Cleveland's situation and the post-June 1st trade possibility for a week or so. It makes the most sense to me, looking at the possibilities on Spotrac.

Taking the ESPN article into account, Garrett isn't going to garner the Khalil Mack trade return. 2 x 1sts and a bit more.

Cleveland could take a long term approach and re-structure to free up cap this year and next, knowing that Watson if off the books in two years. Plus, the QB classes the next two years are much better than this season.

Would Cleveland:
- Re-structure everything to free up cap space and make 2025 essentially a tank year
- Take Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter in this draft
- Trade Garrett post-June 1st to spread the cap hit. Trade for a 2026 1st, 2027 1st, and a little extra

What that allows Cleveland to do:
- Spread the cap hit over two seasons. That would allow them to get by until Watson's contract is over
- Load up on draft picks for 2026 and 2027. That allows the team to make a trade up for a QB they want if they aren't in position to draft that player by the natural draft order.

For Buffalo:
- Allows them to stay put at 30 in 2025 and take a DT (Grant or Williams).
- Allows them to use their 2 x 2nds in 2025 for additional reinforcements on defense
- Trade low 1sts in 2026 and 2027 for an impact edge rusher, giving the Josh Allen Bills version 2 some teeth in their pass rush.

I think it works for both teams.
 
Cook trying to generate drama a year after they ate all that dead money to remove Diggs is a choice.

Just say you want out, bro

No need to demand more money than Barkley and Henry and unfollow people like a child.

15 million for a part time back who they needed to play week 18 to get to 1000 yards? That’s a no from me. I know you had a lot of touchdowns. Cash in on those somewhere else where you won’t get them again because the MVP isn’t doing the hard part for you. Enjoy wherever you end up and I hope you get what you want from them.
 
A few interesting thoughts, re: Bills trades/Myles Garrett

A trade post June 1 trade for Garrett actually saves Cleveland a little bit of cap space, vs a Pre June 1 trade has them take on 16M more dead cap.

Von Miller pre June 1 cut gives us 8M in cap space

A post June 1 cut gives us 17M in cap space.

Typically, you would probably cut Von Miller earlier so you have the cap space to spend on UFAs/draft picks etc. However....if you had a handshake deal in place for Post June 1 (you can't do a post June 1 designation for trades like releases)

What WOULD make sense is trying to move one of our 2nd round picks this year for a 2nd round pick next year. Heck, we could even 'swap' a 2025 2nd with CLE for their 2026 2nd and then just trade it them as part of the Garrett deal.

Would would be hilarious to me is if the deal for Garrett gets, essentially, announced around the draft but is post June 1 deal, so the Bills front office just has to keep denying questions about Garrett until the deal is finalized for like 2 months.
Yep. I said this exact thought a few pages back. I was a bit more greedy in hoping we could trade a 2nd now in 2025, for a 1st in 2026. I know there's some value in the current pick Vs. future. i.e. a 4th now is worth a 3rd next year. Not sure if it works like that with a 2nd and a 1st with the 1st rounders kinda exponentially going up in value.

The Von post June Vs Garrett post June is quite intriguing.
 
It's too bad Cook has gone full heel and is going in with the mindset of making big demands and having a potentially dirty negotiation. Loved him this year but he ain't worth what he's asking for and they may have to move on.
Ok let’s get one thing straight. Someone wanting to get paid for their labor is not full heal or dirty or anything else. I probably wouldn’t pay him 15 million a year but him looking out for himself is what every player that hasn’t gotten paid should be doing.
 
It's too bad Cook has gone full heel and is going in with the mindset of making big demands and having a potentially dirty negotiation. Loved him this year but he ain't worth what he's asking for and they may have to move on.
Tough to fault him. Running backs have an incredibly short lifespan, and the market had a nice blip in favor of them last year (with solid ROI, after a decades long refain of "never pay a running back"). I further think his relative value on the Bills is higher than the market value (without a stud at WR or TE, and the success of their running game last year), so it is a unique situation. If I game it out, I ultimately think that they will sign him around ~$12M/year.
 

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