Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

Bill's Receiver Talk...

Beane's tone about Coleman was VERY interesting today per Sal, saying he was disappointed after his return from injury. Likely off season motivation to come back strong.

Mention of Kincaid putting on weight, getting bigger, and stronger is interesting after he was really hyped up at the draft as a slot receiver weapon at TE

They really talked up Dawson Knox and his contributions this year. Not likely going to be a cap casualty.

Was not a fan of Coopers vibe (moody ?). I would be surprised if he comes back.

Kupp is slot guy, we have Shakir already

Hollins for smart money and 2-3 years is fine for me, plus they save on team socks!

Higgins is likely to get 4/100M+ so not likely. Maybe the Pats ?

Would you take a shot at Mike Williams (for his Jets revenge alone) for cheap or is he shot ?
 
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Very Early Yahoo Mock Draft, I think I would rather stay at 30 and take Harmon, but I do not know much about this years WR crop yet.

Screen Shot 2025-01-30 at 2.37.46 PM.png


 
Bill's Receiver Talk...

Beane's tone about Coleman was VERY interesting today per Sal, saying he was disappointed after his return from injury. Likely off season motivation to come back strong.

Mention of Kincaid putting on weight, getting bigger, and stronger is interesting after he was really up hyped up at the draft as a slot receiver weapon at TE

They really talked up Dawson Knox and his contributions this year. Not likely going to be a cap casualty.

Was not a fan of Coopers vibe (moody ?). I would be surprised if he comes back.

Kupp is slot guy, we have Shakir already

Hollins for smart money and 2-3 years is fine for me, plus they save on team socks!

Higgins is likely to get 4/100M+ so not likely. Maybe the Pats ?

Would you take a shot at Mike Williams (for his Jets revenge alone) for cheap or is he shot ?
Game logs support that view.
 
Anything could happen, but I'd be really surprised if the Bills took a receiver with their first pick. Like in order of likelihood it's almost last. DT>DE>S>CB>LB>OL/WR>RB>TE is probably how I'd rank the probabilities.
Pretty much. I'd probly go:

DT>DE>CB>S>>OL/WR>LB>RB>>>>>TE

Yeah I agree about WR being lower on the totem pole, but ngl, I've done several mock drafts already where Isaiah Bond is sitting there when our second round pick is up and I snag him almost every time. I also go for Tez Johnson if he ever falls to our 4th rounder (rare, but happens once in a while).

1738283943601.png
 
Mention of Kincaid putting on weight, getting bigger, and stronger is interesting after he was really hyped up at the draft as a slot receiver weapon at TE
He needs to bulk up just to survive the NFL at this point. He's in the 95th percentile of getting rocked per my eye test, happens almost every time he runs with the ball. Sadly, it's just who he's going to be - he doesn't have a pro football frame, leaves himself open to shots, and falls poorly. He's an average lightweight TE, elevated by Josh, but nothing close to a first rounder in hindsight. It goes without saying, but next year is huge for him and his future here.
Pretty much. I'd probly go:

DT>DE>CB>S>>OL/WR>LB>RB>>>>>TE
I'm DT>CB>DE>S>LG>LB>>OL>RB>TE. Elam needs to never see the field again for us obviously, and Rasul is tricky as he's due for a payday but likely starting his decline. We likely need a new 2CB and 3CB.

I like the group of DTs that should be around at 30. A huge kid with some juice next to Ed could be a huge help.
 
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He needs to bulk up just to survive the NFL at this point. He's in the 95th percentile of getting rocked per my eye test, happens almost every time he runs with the ball. Sadly, it's just who he's going to be - he doesn't have a pro football frame, leaves himself open to shots, and falls poorly. He's an average lightweight TE, elevated by Josh, but nothing close to a first rounder in hindsight. It goes without saying, but next year is huge for him and his future here.

I'm DT>CB>DE>S>LG>LB>>OL>RB>TE. Elam needs to never see the field again for us obviously, and Rasul is tricky as he's due for a payday but likely starting his decline. We likely need a new 2CB and 3CB.

I like the group of DTs that should be around at 30. A huge kid with some juice next to Ed could be a huge help.
If KC calls with an offer for a 1st round trade back, hang up the phone! 🫣
 
God, i hope we can keep this man.
I forget whether it was on the Matt Parrino/Ryan Talbot pod or the Sal C/Matt Bove pod, but one of those four talked about how McBeane talked about Cook yesterday and that they could see a world where he is the Robin to Allen's Batman replacing Diggs as the one big money "weapon" on offense.

I think it all depends on how much Cook wants.

Screenshot 2025-01-31 073140.jpg


Cook's brother has thrown the $20M number out there which would be the biggest contract in the NFL for a RB surpassing the CMC deal in SF.

I cannot see the Bills going there. Especially given all the starters they have expiring after the 2025 season.

McGovern, Shakir, and Cook are all expiring on offense. Rousseau, Bernard, and Benford are all expiring on defense.

Tough decisions will need to be made by the team and the individual players.

yah, that would of been a fine :cool:
Bills Mafia would have definitely started a GoFundMe to cover it.
 
Would be hilarious. I'm not sure where I TRULY stand on any bias, or KC TRULY getting calls their way.

That being said, I have no qualms with bashing their dynasty with theories like this. I don't give a rats ass if it looks bad, salty, and KC players tell folks like me to kick rocks. If it helps tarnish their legacy I am ALL for it!
I think the home cooking angle and the Chiefs getting so many big games at home is the biggest factor in all of it.

But, things like spotting the ball well shouldn't be that hard.

And the fact that the only people involved with these games that are part-timers where the NFL is their side hustle are the refs is so frustrating to me.

You don't see Josh Allen having a day job selling insurance and playing QB as a side hustle.

And you don't have Andy Reid being a lawyer during the week and then showing up to coach the Chiefs on Sunday.

There is zero reason the NFL cannot afford to have full time refs and add more technology to help out. They have the money.
 
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I forget whether it was on the Matt Parrino/Ryan Talbot pod or the Sal C/Matt Bove pod, but one of those four talked about how McBeane talked about Cook yesterday and that they could see a world where he is the Robin to Allen's Batman replacing Diggs as the one big money "weapon" on offense.

I think it all depends on how much Cook wants.

View attachment 970175

Cook's brother has thrown the $20M number out there which would be the biggest contract in the NFL for a RB surpassing the CMC deal in SF.

I cannot see the Bills going there. Especially given all the starters they have expiring after the 2025 season.

McGovern, Shakir, and Cook are all expiring on offense. Rousseau, Bernard, and Benford are all expiring on defense.

Tough decisions will need to be made by the team and the individual players.


Bills Mafia would have definitely started a GoFundMe to cover it.
Yeah. 20M is way too much, but Cook is a game breaker. Im not usually one for paying RBs, but if he wants to stay- I'd pay. Not 20M, though. I think we'll get another 4 years of good play from him.
 
Yeah. 20M is way too much, but Cook is a game breaker. Im not usually one for paying RBs, but if he wants to stay- I'd pay. Not 20M, though. I think we'll get another 4 years of good play from him.
I would feel comfortable giving Cook $10-12M per. One challenge is that he isn't a bell cow #1 RB and is a guy that has thrived with a balanced workload with the other two RBs on the roster.

For instance, he had a lot more TDs in 2024 and yet his Rushes+Receptions per Game dropped slightly from 2023 to 2024. James Cook was 25th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game in 2024.

So, I would be wary of expecting him to be able to handle a much larger workload just because they pay him more.
 
I forget whether it was on the Matt Parrino/Ryan Talbot pod or the Sal C/Matt Bove pod, but one of those four talked about how McBeane talked about Cook yesterday and that they could see a world where he is the Robin to Allen's Batman replacing Diggs as the one big money "weapon" on offense.

I think it all depends on how much Cook wants.

View attachment 970175

Cook's brother has thrown the $20M number out there which would be the biggest contract in the NFL for a RB surpassing the CMC deal in SF.

I cannot see the Bills going there. Especially given all the starters they have expiring after the 2025 season.

McGovern, Shakir, and Cook are all expiring on offense. Rousseau, Bernard, and Benford are all expiring on defense.

Tough decisions will need to be made by the team and the individual players.

Sure looks like the sweet spot is ~$10M AAV for Cook.
 
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I think the home cooking angle and the Chiefs getting so many big games at home is the biggest factor in all of it.

But, things like spotting the ball well shouldn't be that hard.

And the fact that the only people involved with these games that are part-timers where the NFL is their side hustle are the refs is so frustrating to me.

You don't see Josh Allen having a day job selling insurance and playing QB as a side hustle.

And you don't have Andy Reid being a lawyer during the week and then showing up to coach the Chiefs on Sunday.

There is zero reason the NFL cannot afford to have full time refs and add more technology to help out. They have the money.
Not directed to you singularly, but let's stop the belief so-called "full-time" refs are a solution to a performance and product problem.

Per Al Gore's amazing internet, multiple links cite that NFL referees work a full-time-schedule each week in-season, especially when travel time is factored into the total. In fact, they work in excess of a standard 40 hour work week. In addition, they are well-compensated, earning several times median US per-capita income, and a few times median household income. Additionally to salary, travel and accommodations are paid to the extent of policy, and they receive an additional travel stipend.

I am not aware of a single NFL referee who has an alternate job which explicitly does not accommodate his/her NFL referee job and requires him/her to work that other job "fully" in-season such that he/she is literally working 80+ hours a week.

I want four things from NFL referees in this order:
1. Compensated sufficiently to avoid payoffs to influence outcome of games / gambling.
2. Ethics to swiftly report game-outcome-influence solicitations, and a protective system to permit that without fear of retribution from any party.
3. Competency & effort for highly-objective and minimally-subjective decisions.
4. Consistency for highly-subjective and minimally-objective decisions.

Much has been written and podcasted about the declining frequency and/or standards for post-game referee performance grading once Dean Blandino left that role as head of officials several years ago. I don't know if that was a leadership regime-change decision or a union-negotiated change, or something else, but if the NFL & union want to do something, I'd start there.

If the NFL wishes to negotiate to extend the fraction of the weeks within the calendar year their referees are obligated to their NFL employment, that's fine by me too. Example - additional time in off-season officiating training / conferences / camps. I'm certain pay would be increased proportionally, no issues.

Independent of that, I believe that certain camera views are mandated by the NFL as part of their contracts, but there are other camera views which not all stadiums have (due to configuration) and those camera views which are not ubiquitous in all stadiums are NOT allowed to be used for replay referee decisions, even if the broadcast has it. I'd rather "fix that" in whatever way is possible as to me that has a more material impact than whether a referee is "full time" or "part time".

Just my two cents and it will be difficult to change my mind.

Using more tech is double-edged. You get into maintenance and calibration (accuracy and repeatability) of such tech. The same discussions we've had about allowed and disallowed hockey goals. I'd rather improve the human element than give the human element a technology cushion or safety net. I acknowledge that's the complete opposite of RD&E & manufacturing philosophy (from which @Jim Bob and I have made a comfortable living), but so be it.
 
Not directed to you singularly, but let's stop the belief so-called "full-time" refs are a solution to a performance and product problem.

Per Al Gore's amazing internet, multiple links cite that NFL referees work a full-time-schedule each week in-season, especially when travel time is factored into the total. In fact, they work in excess of a standard 40 hour work week. In addition, they are well-compensated, earning several times median US per-capita income, and a few times median household income. Additionally to salary, travel and accommodations are paid to the extent of policy, and they receive an additional travel stipend.

I am not aware of a single NFL referee who has an alternate job which explicitly does not accommodate his/her NFL referee job and requires him/her to work that other job "fully" in-season such that he/she is literally working 80+ hours a week.

I want four things from NFL referees in this order:
1. Compensated sufficiently to avoid payoffs to influence outcome of games / gambling.
2. Ethics to swiftly report game-outcome-influence solicitations, and a protective system to permit that without fear of retribution from any party.
3. Competency & effort for highly-objective and minimally-subjective decisions.
4. Consistency for highly-subjective and minimally-objective decisions.

Much has been written and podcasted about the declining frequency and/or standards for post-game referee performance grading once Dean Blandino left that role as head of officials several years ago. I don't know if that was a leadership regime-change decision or a union-negotiated change, or something else, but if the NFL & union want to do something, I'd start there.

If the NFL wishes to negotiate to extend the fraction of the weeks within the calendar year their referees are obligated to their NFL employment, that's fine by me too. Example - additional time in off-season officiating training / conferences / camps. I'm certain pay would be increased proportionally, no issues.

Independent of that, I believe that certain camera views are mandated by the NFL as part of their contracts, but there are other camera views which not all stadiums have (due to configuration) and those camera views which are not ubiquitous in all stadiums are NOT allowed to be used for replay referee decisions, even if the broadcast has it. I'd rather "fix that" in whatever way is possible as to me that has a more material impact than whether a referee is "full time" or "part time".

Just my two cents and it will be difficult to change my mind.

Using more tech is double-edged. You get into maintenance and calibration (accuracy and repeatability) of such tech. The same discussions we've had about allowed and disallowed hockey goals. I'd rather improve the human element than give the human element a technology cushion or safety net. I acknowledge that's the complete opposite of RD&E & manufacturing philosophy (from which @Jim Bob and I have made a comfortable living), but so be it.
One idea that made sense to me more than some of the first down tech ideas (especially pointing to tennis's Hawkeye tech), is having one "eye in the sky" ref for every ref on the field. And then have camera angles for each ref's responsibility to allow those quick eye in the sky aids to get calls right on a more consistent basis.

There could be some other stuff that could potentially aid replay with video overlays for first down markers, the goal line, and field goal uprights.

It just sure seems that they do not do everything they can to get the referees to be consistently better. Yes, it is a game of inches and it is tough to see everything live at game speed. But, that doesn't mean that we need to deal with things like it's the 1960s, either.
 
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He needs to bulk up just to survive the NFL at this point. He's in the 95th percentile of getting rocked per my eye test, happens almost every time he runs with the ball. Sadly, it's just who he's going to be - he doesn't have a pro football frame, leaves himself open to shots, and falls poorly. He's an average lightweight TE, elevated by Josh, but nothing close to a first rounder in hindsight. It goes without saying, but next year is huge for him and his future here.

I'm DT>CB>DE>S>LG>LB>>OL>RB>TE. Elam needs to never see the field again for us obviously, and Rasul is tricky as he's due for a payday but likely starting his decline. We likely need a new 2CB and 3CB.

I like the group of DTs that should be around at 30. A huge kid with some juice next to Ed could be a huge help.
Give me two random CBs from like Jacksonville State and Western Michigan in the fourth round or later and they'll probably be fine lol
 
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Using Spotrac for free agent years and potential cap savings:

Current Cap Situation: -$8,467,005
Cutting Trubisky, converting Allen's salary into a bonus = $3,655,495 (Cap Space)

My opinions:

Bold = Under contract & expected Buffalo Bill for 2025 Season
Normal = Under contract but questionable return
Italicized = Free Agent I expect to be re-signed
Not shown = Free agent, either expected to sign elsewhere or roster bubble player

QB: Josh Allen, Mike White
**They gave White a 2-year contract and save $3M on Mitch. Easy Trubisky cut (IMO).
RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson
FB: Reggie Gilliam
WR: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, (One of) Morris/Davidson/Rogers
OT: Dion Dawkins, Travis Clayton
OG: Davis Edwards, Alec Anderson
C: Connor McGovern, Sedrick van Pran Granger
OG: O'Cyrus Torrence, Ryan van Demark
OT: Spencer Brown, Tylan Grable
***OL positions are a little more flexible for this list.

DE: Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Von Miller, Javon Solomon, Dawuane Smoot
DT: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, DeWayne Carter, Jordan Phillips
LB: Terrell Bernard, Matt Milano, Dorian Williams, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Baylon Spector, Joe Andreessen
CB: Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Brandon Codrington (KR/PR)
S: Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis (S/CB)
  • I was surprised by how many spots were already filled.
  • Hoping Ty Johnson, Gilliam, Hollins, Alec Anderson, Smoot, and Phillips are quick and relatively inexpensive signings.
  • I expect Hamlin to sign with the Steelers, but would take him back on the cheap.
  • Cooper is too expensive for "everybody eats".
    • Trade for a veteran with a low salary cap hit like Cooper next year if you think you need someone again.
  • Von Miller and Dawson Knox take cuts again?
    • Would not be surprised by Miller being cut or some crazy restructure that saves them a ton.
    • Dawson Knox was praised by Beane, but might still give a couple million back.
  • Please realize Elam is not a good fit here and trade him; or cut him if no deal can be found.
  • Not a fan of giving a RB (even Cook) a lot of money. The OL was a good part of his success and there are always RBs to be found. Use up his rookie contract and walk away.
  • Huge Benford fan, but those injuries scare me long term when thinking about an extension this offseason.
  • Rouseau is a player I hope takes an Epenesa type contract. Nice raise to stay but not the big bucks yet.
  • In this defense, the type of corner is more important than the skill level. I think, boundary corner is the teams biggest hole to fill looking at the roster currently, but I don't need them to spend big. Just "spend" smart.
 
Using Spotrac for free agent years and potential cap savings:

Current Cap Situation: -$8,467,005
Cutting Trubisky, converting Allen's salary into a bonus = $3,655,495 (Cap Space)

My opinions:

Bold = Under contract & expected Buffalo Bill for 2025 Season
Normal = Under contract but questionable return
Italicized = Free Agent I expect to be re-signed
Not shown = Free agent, either expected to sign elsewhere or roster bubble player

QB: Josh Allen, Mike White
**They gave White a 2-year contract and save $3M on Mitch. Easy Trubisky cut (IMO).
RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson
FB: Reggie Gilliam
WR: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, (One of) Morris/Davidson/Rogers
OT: Dion Dawkins, Travis Clayton
OG: Davis Edwards, Alec Anderson
C: Connor McGovern, Sedrick van Pran Granger
OG: O'Cyrus Torrence, Ryan van Demark
OT: Spencer Brown, Tylan Grable
***OL positions are a little more flexible for this list.

DE: Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Von Miller, Javon Solomon, Dawuane Smoot
DT: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, DeWayne Carter, Jordan Phillips
LB: Terrell Bernard, Matt Milano, Dorian Williams, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Baylon Spector, Joe Andreessen
CB: Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Brandon Codrington (KR/PR)
S: Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis (S/CB)
  • I was surprised by how many spots were already filled.
  • Hoping Ty Johnson, Gilliam, Hollins, Alec Anderson, Smoot, and Phillips are quick and relatively inexpensive signings.
  • I expect Hamlin to sign with the Steelers, but would take him back on the cheap.
  • Cooper is too expensive for "everybody eats".
    • Trade for a veteran with a low salary cap hit like Cooper next year if you think you need someone again.
  • Von Miller and Dawson Knox take cuts again?
    • Would not be surprised by Miller being cut or some crazy restructure that saves them a ton.
    • Dawson Knox was praised by Beane, but might still give a couple million back.
  • Please realize Elam is not a good fit here and trade him; or cut him if no deal can be found.
  • Not a fan of giving a RB (even Cook) a lot of money. The OL was a good part of his success and there are always RBs to be found. Use up his rookie contract and walk away.
  • Huge Benford fan, but those injuries scare me long term when thinking about an extension this offseason.
  • Rouseau is a player I hope takes an Epenesa type contract. Nice raise to stay but not the big bucks yet.
  • In this defense, the type of corner is more important than the skill level. I think, boundary corner is the teams biggest hole to fill looking at the roster currently, but I don't need them to spend big. Just "spend" smart.
Q Morris is an RFA and Alec Anderson is an ERFA. So, I would expect them back in 2025 without much issue and nothing huge cap-wise.

Also, if they move on from Elam, it has to be a trade. He counts $4.3M in 2025 whether he is on the roster or cut. There is cap savings with a trade. So, I would expect a late day 3 pick swap for Elam if they choose to move on from him.
 
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Not directed to you singularly, but let's stop the belief so-called "full-time" refs are a solution to a performance and product problem.

Per Al Gore's amazing internet, multiple links cite that NFL referees work a full-time-schedule each week in-season, especially when travel time is factored into the total. In fact, they work in excess of a standard 40 hour work week. In addition, they are well-compensated, earning several times median US per-capita income, and a few times median household income. Additionally to salary, travel and accommodations are paid to the extent of policy, and they receive an additional travel stipend.

I am not aware of a single NFL referee who has an alternate job which explicitly does not accommodate his/her NFL referee job and requires him/her to work that other job "fully" in-season such that he/she is literally working 80+ hours a week.

I want four things from NFL referees in this order:
1. Compensated sufficiently to avoid payoffs to influence outcome of games / gambling.
2. Ethics to swiftly report game-outcome-influence solicitations, and a protective system to permit that without fear of retribution from any party.
3. Competency & effort for highly-objective and minimally-subjective decisions.
4. Consistency for highly-subjective and minimally-objective decisions.

Much has been written and podcasted about the declining frequency and/or standards for post-game referee performance grading once Dean Blandino left that role as head of officials several years ago. I don't know if that was a leadership regime-change decision or a union-negotiated change, or something else, but if the NFL & union want to do something, I'd start there.

If the NFL wishes to negotiate to extend the fraction of the weeks within the calendar year their referees are obligated to their NFL employment, that's fine by me too. Example - additional time in off-season officiating training / conferences / camps. I'm certain pay would be increased proportionally, no issues.

Independent of that, I believe that certain camera views are mandated by the NFL as part of their contracts, but there are other camera views which not all stadiums have (due to configuration) and those camera views which are not ubiquitous in all stadiums are NOT allowed to be used for replay referee decisions, even if the broadcast has it. I'd rather "fix that" in whatever way is possible as to me that has a more material impact than whether a referee is "full time" or "part time".

Just my two cents and it will be difficult to change my mind.

Using more tech is double-edged. You get into maintenance and calibration (accuracy and repeatability) of such tech. The same discussions we've had about allowed and disallowed hockey goals. I'd rather improve the human element than give the human element a technology cushion or safety net. I acknowledge that's the complete opposite of RD&E & manufacturing philosophy (from which @Jim Bob and I have made a comfortable living), but so be it.

I think you are missing the point of the argument. Proponents for full time refs is for them to be working in their trade full time, year round. This would be their primary job. Not just during the season. Rather than having big time lawyers do this as their second job during the season, you’d have full time refs that work on this year round.
 
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