Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[Tables of Stats]

I figure we can move this talk out of the Lekkerimaki thread to a more fitting place. I grabbed quotes from the last two pages so people can catch up without jumping between threads.

He has one outlier, this season. If you take that out he has not scored 30 goals ever.

If you take away all the seasons where he had personal tragedy, he still has zero seasons where he scored 30.

I am not saying he is bad, I am saying he is very high risk to extend if he is asking for 7+ with term. What part do you not understand about that.

finding a replacement is Alvin’s job, not mine. I just advocate for not extending Boeser if he wants a big contract and trade him at peak value for assets and free up the cap to find a replacement. I am not sure the concept of a RW matters as much in the system we play. 90% of our offense is dump the puck, forecheck the shit out of it and create chances from control. It’s not like we need wingers to create chances from rush chance where you want a natural RW LW setup.

You're having to use very precise language to make your argument, which is not a good sign for your argument. The counter-pedabtic argument is that Boeser has paced 30+ goals in 5 of 8 seasons with a career average of 30.75 goals per 82 games. Is a 464 game sample size sufficient to call him a 30 goal scorer? Yes, yes it is.

Being precise matters when you are making big money decisions.
Also you know you are being disingenuous when you include Boeser’s rookie season as part of the history. Rookie Boeser is a different player everyone knows that.

Even this season, he has slowed down pretty dramatically around Feb and looks more like previous seasons Boeser than early season Boeser. The thing about extending him is he will get slower, and we all know what he is like when he slows down a bit.

You guys are too damn sentimental about this. Yeah GMs usually don’t treat the NHL like a video game but we are talking about PA and JR here. We had rumors about Limdholm on the block at TDL and they didn’t even bother refuting that and only said, oh I feel bad for the player for those rumors. JR basically refreshed his whole roster at Pens and got them a cup.

Why are you guys so sentimental? Feels more important than winning? Giving Boeser term into the 30’s is like such an obvious trap. It’s like we all know what he’s like when he plays slow. Well we know he is already bloody slow and will definitely get slower real soon, wtf makes you guys think nah, he’s going to figure out how to score with less speed.

You seem to think I was aiming this at your post. I was not. Boeser has been overpaid for years, but he is earning his salary this year. I don't want him back if he is $7M+.

The intangible part of this is that we have no idea of the dynamics of the dressing room. They all seem to be gelling this year. Great. Is Boeser a minor part of that? A major part of that? He sure seems to be a class act.

It is part of the job of the GM and coach to put together a working team. They have done one hell of a job.

Whether or not Lekkerimaki can step in and be a top level sniper is a separate issue. We are all hoping that he, Willy, EP2 and pods turn out to be great players for the Canucks.

yes im pretty much convinced that Sam Reinhart Mark Stone and anyone who doesn't skate around fast would never get respect in this city. It's like the Caps should have never won with
TJ Oshie or Avs with Landeskog or Ducks with Corey Perry because they skate too slow

Boeser is a key piece in linking things together with this core. His possession game and playmaking has become really good and he can finish. Net front he's done a excellent job at screening and having a well placed body and strong stick to clean things up. He's also really good at moving pucks around the walls to keep his line or the PP in possession

Nobody on the Canucks roster is readily available to replace what he does without a big set back. It's working so well that we're in a Presidents trophy race yet people are constantly trying to project him off the roster. He is extremely important in his role loves this city and gutted through a tough era and off ice challenges to emerge happy and successful. I'm not sure why it's so hard to understand or at least be respectful and mindful of his importance. He is a core piece.

I trust this management to make a smart decision with the term of his next contract. Like Horvat he will have to decide team or max money and that is fine as he is the most replaceable of our core players even if it wont be as easy as most seem to think

Lekkerimaki (after this year) i'm pretty convinced has star potential. Thing is the NHL doesn't take kindly to young players and he will go through a development phase especially not being naturally a player who gets stuck in. Would be amazing if he could jump on board and have immediate impact but i certainly do not see the Lekkerimaki replaces Boeser scenario unfolding by the end of BB6's contract.

Mikheyev needs to be moved already just to ice a half decent team next year. Same with Garland if we want to afford a half ass bottom 6, especially as the OEL penalty increases. Our lineup is already littered with holes and big ufa decisions. I think the biggest thing is a lot of us already see the holes in our top 6 as it pertains to playoff hockey. We probably need to address that as we've all seen the winger carousel surrounding Petey, Miller, and Boeser this season. Petey needs a more permanent winger to play with as well. It's not that he needs to be moved as a priority but his upcoming contract really needs to be carefully considered and weighed against the many other facets this team needs, and how to best obtain that.



This is the sense I get to. It's not that Boeser has to go because he's a bad player or something, it's that he might be looking for a huge contract. It's something to strongly evaluate, if we want to improve the top 6 configuration. That's going to be almost impossible to do if we re-sign Boeser to a big deal. Then it's just more of the same going forward. I personally feel we're still a couple players away from being a serious contender.

Lucky for all of us, fans and management, we get the perfect environment coming up in the playoffs up to see exactly how our players perform before making final decisions. Gotta trust Allvin and JR here.



Yeah a big $7-$8 mil deal with term is likely. He could easily be coming off of back to back 35+ goal campaigns if he continues scoring in his contract year. We have very few places where we can make significant changes. Mik, Garland, and Boeser, are basically it.

I think the dressing room thing is a non-starter. You can't carry a $7+ mil contracts simply because he's a popular guy in the room.



Exactly this. The margins are so tight. It's going to be hard to surround our elite core with the pieces needed to be a winner. Is this how we want to spend the rest of our top 6 money for the next 3/4 of a decade.

I don't think you are saying anything that contradicts what the other side is saying.

Let's be perfectly clear, nobody is saying Boeser is a bad player, or that he doesn't play a key role on offense or the PP, or that he is not an important piece in the locker room, or that we should completely discount his personal tragedy when evaluating his past performance. And certainly nobody is actively projecting to have him off the team.

What we are saying is 1) Boeser is not without flaws, and his flaws limits him as a player and will likely get more prominent as he ages, 2) he is definitely not the first player we should move (Mikheyev and maybe Garland should be top of the lost) but if the right deal comes along we have to at least look into it, 3) committing big money on a long term contract to him is extremely risky due to the above mentioned flaws, and 4) his trade value is likely never going to be higher, so if extending him is not in the long term plans then moving him could make sense.

You seem to also acknowledge the benefit of moving on from previous core player with your Horvat example, Boeser is the exact same situation. If he wants to come back at a number that make sense and work for us, more than happy to have him. If not, he isn't irreplaceable, just like Horvat wasn't irreplaceable.

Hope that clears things up.

The shortened 56 game season had him on pace for 34 goals in an 82 game season. Unlike other injury shortened seasons where it's fair to count that as a limitation of Boeser himself the shortened season shouldn't be so discounted. So with that included he's had peak goal scoring seasons of 35+ (This season), 34 (Pro Rated), and 29, with some of his injury shortened seasons showing around 30 goal pace as well. If we discount the seasons impacted by his father's illness and death he's pretty consistently a high 20s to low 30s goal scorer with under rated playmaking ability.

It's fair to lower his value by pointing out his injury history and his poor foot speed, but I'm not sure it's fair to claim he's never shown the ability to score 30 goals.

We also don't know what his asking price will be. If there's a player on this roster likely to take a discount to stay it feels like it would be him.

------

As for Lekkerimaki, I'm hoping he continues to drag his team with him through the SHL playoffs.

It was widely reported that he was going to be a cap casualty, and that the only way that they were going to be able to trade him was if salary retention was made available; which this group didn't want to do.

They gave his agent permission to talk to other teams to seek a trade as they couldn't find a dance partner, and couldn't find a package that they were happy with. If someone offered a first or any prospect of relevance they would have made the deal.

This is not new information PoM.

You'd find a suitor now I'd imagine, with those numbers compared to last year.

The point is with this year as a platform year, he can ask for a lot, like 7+ or more likely 7.5+ and if he scores 40 then yeah, that is a reasonable ask. Problem is the risk of doing that. If we extend him based on the platform year, how likely will he live up to his contract as he gets slower and i think there is high confidence that he will get slower and also high confidence that speed will negatively impact his production more than other players because he is already pretty damn slow.
If we don't extend him, his NTC will kick in and there are basically several scenarios. He plays well, as well as this year and that will solidify his case to make more money and that will make the extension decision either easier or more challenging. He plays not as well but maybe like between 25-low 30 goal range and that decreases his ask but also the risk of extension is even bigger because now you have evidence of decline or regression. He plays like crap and you end up with a distress asset that is not helping you much when you are trying to contend.

everything about Boeser should be look through the lens of risk management. It's not about do you like him or not, it's about short term and long term risk.

It's because people were projecting to replace a Boeser extension with Lekkerimaki and the viability of that so it has relevance. Of course anything related to BB6 gets into an argument as he's a polarizing player for many.


The Bjorkstand comp is not that great if you want to compete with heavy teams in the Pacific come playoff time and a lot of those deals that were made during the flat cap wont be a thing anymore plus what you are saying is not what others are who keep using his name as the guy they are looking to toss out with the bath water

It's important to not become slow and stale. A 28yr old Boeser if he stays healthy and shows consistency the rest of this season and next is not something we should have on a list of high priority players to get out from within.

It can all change with a change in play or contract but that's all players so it's worth monitoring. I agree with most of what your saying it just seems endless the amount of attacks on a damn good hockey player but in the context of this discussion your point is well taken.

Agreed that they wouldn’t have got a lot for him during the season..I know they used the agent to ask around ..but I don’t recall the Canucks willing to give him away for free.

Boeser never requested a trade, and by the end of last season,all sides had rescinded the idea of trading him.

Click to read more...

 

[NailsHoglander]

I'd be ok with re-signing him if Tocchet is around to crack the whip for the full duration of his new contract.

 

[sting101]

Fully on board to wait and see. As much as i defend and appreciate Brock he absolutely needs to be on his front foot and healthy to be effective. If he has a good stretch run and another excellent summer i would feel a lot more secure in a belief he wont just want to pull up a lounge chair

 

[Tables of Stats]

The point is with this year as a platform year, he can ask for a lot, like 7+ or more likely 7.5+ and if he scores 40 then yeah, that is a reasonable ask. Problem is the risk of doing that. If we extend him based on the platform year, how likely will he live up to his contract as he gets slower and i think there is high confidence that he will get slower and also high confidence that speed will negatively impact his production more than other players because he is already pretty damn slow.
If we don't extend him, his NTC will kick in and there are basically several scenarios. He plays well, as well as this year and that will solidify his case to make more money and that will make the extension decision either easier or more challenging. He plays not as well but maybe like between 25-low 30 goal range and that decreases his ask but also the risk of extension is even bigger because now you have evidence of decline or regression. He plays like crap and you end up with a distress asset that is not helping you much when you are trying to contend.

everything about Boeser should be look through the lens of risk management. It's not about do you like him or not, it's about short term and long term risk.

I understand the risk management angle, but as fans we can't really gauge where he's at in terms of an extension or how difficult he'll be if his NTC kicks in. With both of these as unknowns, it should lean us toward trading him. If management is talking and they know he'll take a 5 year @ $6 million deal that changes the math some. Management may also be wanting to see the team's playoff performance this season to gauge if he's worth keeping as a self rental in the event we can't trade him and he becomes too expensive to extend.

 

[Killer Orcas]

I'll be honest love the player and person but no chance would I extend him for anything beyond a discount and 3 years max. His skating is only gonna get worse as he ages.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

I'll be honest love the player and person but no chance would I extend him for anything beyond a discount and 3 years max. His skating is only gonna get worse as he ages.

He has looked phenomenal in a few periods thus far in his career. 2016-2018, in the bubble in 2020 and has looked decent as a complementary player next to JT Miller this year.

To me, his skating and prior injury history where he's taken a ton of time to recover from wrist injuries has me worried about signing any term contract. He's a total liability when his shot is neutralized, and he's not a player that can simply reinvent himself as a checker or bottom 6er. Dorion in Ottawa made a similar mistake with signing Mike Hoffman to a pointless contract.

He seems like a totally awesome dude and is well liked in the dressing room. He's also played through some tough periods but...I would not commit any significant cap and term to him.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

To compound the skating problem for Boeser is that the game is getting faster each year, and he is only going to get slower as he ages. The speed deficiency is going to get worse, and it will get exponentially harder for him to keep up, let alone produce. Maybe on the PP he will be fine, but 5 on 5 is definitely a concern as he gets older.

A great example I think is Tavares. Awesome franchise 1C in his prime but not the fastest skater. Look how badly he is struggling now. He isn't even that old at 33. While he had a few productive years in Toronto playing with some elite talents, do you think the Leafs would still sign that contract if they get a do-over? Probably not. Boeser will be 28 when he hits UFA, how many years are you comfortable committing to him? I don't think I would want him beyond $6m max after he turns 30, or when JTM starts to fade.

 

[M2Beezy]

Brock Boeser

 

[WTG]

The only bonafide top 6 winger on the team, a right winger no less, scoring at a 1st line rate. But somehow always on the chopping block. Where are we going to find these magical wingers to replace Boeser with? Trading assets away that could be better served bringing in actual holes in the lineup (like lack of wingers btw)?

I get the sense that people here would rather overpay a guy by 1-2 million in free agency than overpay a guy who already works in the system, has existing chemistry, and checks all the boxes he needs to check.

Revenues grew 8.6% from last year to this year, the cap is going to go up at a higher rate year-over-year. Cap is going up to 88 mil next year.

Boeser is a good player, and you want to retain your talent when you can. The shiny new toy isn't necessarily better. Look at Lindholm. People were clamoring to get him in, but now it looks like he doesn't have chemistry with Pettersson or Miller, and he's stuck on the third line. Boeser doesn't have that problem. He works well as a complementary player for both Pettersson and Miller.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The only bonafide top 6 winger on the team, a right winger no less, scoring at a 1st line rate. But somehow always on the chopping block. Where are we going to find these magical wingers to replace Boeser with? Trading assets away that could be better served bringing in actual holes in the lineup (like lack of wingers btw)?

I get the sense that people here would rather overpay a guy by 1-2 million in free agency than overpay a guy who already works in the system, has existing chemistry, and checks all the boxes he needs to check.

Revenues grew 8.6% from last year to this year, the cap is going to go up at a higher rate year-over-year. Cap is going up to 88 mil next year.

Boeser is a good player, and you want to retain your talent when you can. The shiny new toy isn't necessarily better. Look at Lindholm. People were clamoring to get him in, but now it looks like he doesn't have chemistry with Pettersson or Miller, and he's stuck on the third line. Boeser doesn't have that problem. He works well as a complementary player for both Pettersson and Miller.

When looking at replacements for Boeser we might be better off targeting a player on a $5 million deal that can't replace all of the missing offence, and hope that Lekkerimaki can make up the difference or that Hoglander has even more growth to his game than we've already seen. We're going to remain a team that runs through Pettersson, Miller, and Hughes so it might be that our cap structure works best if we target cheaper wingers that have flaws we can live with rather than running a premium top-6 forward group, top 3-D, and then cheap out on our depth.

There's also one other route to keeping Boeser, but folks might not like it, we could extend him at market rate and accept that we'll need to pay to move him once his game falls off. If management sees us as having a short window of contention before we need to rebuild they may want to consider this route, if they see it as being longer, this becomes less attractive.

 

[BluesyShoes]

I think the risk with Boeser is if he loses his spot on his line for whatever reason, he is unlikely to be an impact player in the bottom half of the line-up. There are many top six wingers that if moved down into the bottom six, it adds depth, but that is not really the case with Boeser because his footspeed is so bad. So if he stops scoring (like in years previous) or otherwise loses his spot to a prospect or free agent, he very quickly becomes a pretty bad contract. Its not great when a $7M guy is playing like a $4M third liner, but when a $7M guy is playing worse than a league min contract you are really in trouble.

 

[Bobby9]

Let him play out his contract.

He can come back for 65% of his current contract or he can go to another team. Really like the person but this is his highest year ever.

 

[credulous]

wings are the easiest position to replace on a team. you should only really be concerned about hanging on to real stars or real bargains. boeser is neither

 

[Tables of Stats]

wings are the easiest position to replace on a team. you should only really be concerned about hanging on to real stars or real bargains. boeser is neither

How many 6.65AAV players have 35 goals this season? Boeser is a bargain this season. The question is will he be a bargain two seasons from now when his new contract starts. If he's still worth it then you need to ask how quickly will he slide from being a plus asset to being a neutral asset to being a negative asset.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

The only bonafide top 6 winger on the team, a right winger no less, scoring at a 1st line rate. But somehow always on the chopping block. Where are we going to find these magical wingers to replace Boeser with? Trading assets away that could be better served bringing in actual holes in the lineup (like lack of wingers btw)?

I get the sense that people here would rather overpay a guy by 1-2 million in free agency than overpay a guy who already works in the system, has existing chemistry, and checks all the boxes he needs to check.

Revenues grew 8.6% from last year to this year, the cap is going to go up at a higher rate year-over-year. Cap is going up to 88 mil next year.

Boeser is a good player, and you want to retain your talent when you can. The shiny new toy isn't necessarily better. Look at Lindholm. People were clamoring to get him in, but now it looks like he doesn't have chemistry with Pettersson or Miller, and he's stuck on the third line. Boeser doesn't have that problem. He works well as a complementary player for both Pettersson and Miller.

With Boeser it's mostly about the term of his next contract, and a little about the AAV. If he is willing to sign like 1 x $6m or 2 x $6.5m, sure get it done. The problem is if he wants 6+ years term and like $7+m AAV, do you want to be paying him that much at age 33+ as he slow down even more and struggling to keep up with the forecheck/backcheck? With JTM locked in until his mid to late 30s as well, how many (potentially) inefficient contracts do you want to carry. Or how many assets you want to throw away as sweetener to dump him later on?

I think one reason Tampa and Boston are able to sustain success for so long is because they are able to cut loose players as they decline and/or as they demand more money than they are worth going forward. You probably think the Bruins were nuts trading a prime age power forward in Lucic, but it turned out to be a great movie. They got valuable assets in return and avoided signing him to one of the worse contract in the league. They also let Eriksson go as well after a 30+ goal season. They used the cap efficiently and replaced those guys, and continue to contend. Imagine had they signed those guys for a combine $13m over 7 yrs like they ended up though, that would slam shut their contention window. Same decision here with Boeser imo.

 

[Nuckles]

How many 6.65AAV players have 35 goals this season? Boeser is a bargain this season. The question is will he be a bargain two seasons from now when his new contract starts. If he's still worth it then you need to ask how quickly will he slide from being a plus asset to being a neutral asset to being a negative asset.

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

 

[Tables of Stats]

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

I understand the objections. Look 6 posts up and you'll see me suggesting that we might be better off looking for a $5million/AAV shooting winder to replace him and accepting that we're probably not getting 40 goals from our 1st line RW next season. That said, its entirely possible, and not entirely unreasonable, to want to maintain chemistry by keeping Boeser.

It could be correct to keep Boeser if he's willing to 1) play nice with his NTC if the team falls off next season or 2) if Boeser is willing to take a team friendly extension. If Boeser is willing to take a haircut on term and sign for something like $6x5 years or $7x4 years, it does make keeping him more enticing.

The answer is going to ultimately rest with what UFAs are available this summer and what their asking prices are. Who are people looking to target as the Boeser replacement?

 

[RandV]

My arm-chair GM tendency is always towards retaining your guys, but obviously I'm not in the negotiating room to know what he'll be asking for.

Really though it's a positive that he still has another year, as that gives you two years to evaluate him under the Allvin/Tocchet system. This may look like an outlier year but most of his career has been under Benning/Green, and that's going to drag a guy down.

For the contract, there's two things I'm focusing on. First is that one-dimensional wingers get the least payout in free agency. Second that when signing long term deals with players at this age they usually accept back diving value in the latter years. If he continues his play into next season I think you can combine the above to get him onto a 6 year deal with a reasonable cap hit not much different from what he's currently making, possibly even less. Pay him $7-8 mil in the first few years then drop that down to half in the latter years and you could come out with something around a $6M cap hit.

 

[RandV]

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

If you want to move on from him that's one thing but I really don't think there's going to be a "sell high" option. Again one-dimensional scoring wingers position is at the bottom of 1st/2nd line value, and he's one year from UFA with all the uncertainty that brings. If the Canucks don't want him why would anyone else pay a big price for him?

Could end up like a Nate Schmidt situation where you need to trade him and the best value you can get is something like a 3rd round pick. I'd say a late 1st rounder at best.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

Agreed…………… Unnnnnnleeeeeesssssssss it would be subtracting a key locker room guy. Perhaps as the longest serving Canuck on the roster he is a major culture carrier. Perhaps not, its up to those in the know to make the decision on this, if not then trade him as a high value peace. But his story is an inspiration for some fans and I would not be surprised for some players as well.

If you want to move on from him that's one thing but I really don't think there's going to be a "sell high" option. Again one-dimensional scoring wingers position is at the bottom of 1st/2nd line value, and he's one year from UFA with all the uncertainty that brings. If the Canucks don't want him why would anyone else pay a big price for him?

Could end up like a Nate Schmidt situation where you need to trade him and the best value you can get is something like a 3rd round pick. I'd say a late 1st rounder at best.

I think a late first is high value myself

 

[arttk]

If you want to move on from him that's one thing but I really don't think there's going to be a "sell high" option. Again one-dimensional scoring wingers position is at the bottom of 1st/2nd line value, and he's one year from UFA with all the uncertainty that brings. If the Canucks don't want him why would anyone else pay a big price for him?

Could end up like a Nate Schmidt situation where you need to trade him and the best value you can get is something like a 3rd round pick. I'd say a late 1st rounder at best.

i mean sell high is going to be a relative thing. we couldn't give him away last season but with this season's play, we can maybe get a 1st and prospect (not A prospect) back without taking cap back.

As i said before, this has nothing to do with him being bad or whatever. It's simply doing something to mitigate against the risk of extending someone that has a higher probability of decline.

Honestly I don't buy the argument that having a scoring RW is somehow super important. Who the f*** cares which side is doing the scoring. Also there a lot of stop gap wingers that we can target this off season.
Reinhart, Marchessault, Toffoli, Duchene, Guentzel, Teravainen, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi, Duclair, Debrusk, Stamkos? lol ...

Some of them will be downgrade for sure if you compare them to peak Boeser but then the odds of Boeser being a low 30 goal guy is probably higher than him hitting 40 again. and getting 2 20ish goal scorer is probably a better play then having 1 guy potting 30ish goals and no depth.

I think guys like marchessault and Toffoli would be nice stop gap since they won't be demading crazy term and we can get them at a fair price at 2-3 years and we can probably afford both if we trade away Boeser.

 

[Spectrefire]

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

How many scoring wingers aren't glued to the best centers on their team?

It's such a nonsensical argument.

 

[Tables of Stats]

i mean sell high is going to be a relative thing. we couldn't give him away last season but with this season's play, we can maybe get a 1st and prospect (not A prospect) back without taking cap back.

As i said before, this has nothing to do with him being bad or whatever. It's simply doing something to mitigate against the risk of extending someone that has a higher probability of decline.

Honestly I don't buy the argument that having a scoring RW is somehow super important. Who the f*** cares which side is doing the scoring. Also there a lot of stop gap wingers that we can target this off season.
Reinhart, Marchessault, Toffoli, Duchene, Guentzel, Teravainen, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi, Duclair, Debrusk, Stamkos? lol ...

Some of them will be downgrade for sure if you compare them to peak Boeser but then the odds of Boeser being a low 30 goal guy is probably higher than him hitting 40 again. and getting 2 20ish goal scorer is probably a better play then having 1 guy potting 30ish goals and no depth.

I think guys like marchessault and Toffoli would be nice stop gap since they won't be demading crazy term and we can get them at a fair price at 2-3 years and we can probably afford both if we trade away Boeser.

How many other teams will be bidding for this same pool of players? We can't just assume we're going to be able to land our targets at our price. So what happens if we land Marchessault on a four year deal for a million more than we'd like to pay and then have to pick up the next guy from a tier down? Does that still look favorable? We can't just assume best case when looking at a scenario we need to find our acceptable floor as well.

 

[arttk]

How many other teams will be bidding for this same pool of players? We can't just assume we're going to be able to land our targets at our price. So what happens if we land Marchessault on a four year deal for a million more than we'd like to pay and then have to pick up the next guy from a tier down? Does that still look favorable? We can't just assume best case when looking at a scenario we need to find our acceptable floor as well.

that's not really our job is it. seems like they are quite effective at getting players they targeted. sounds like the only player they targeted and couldn't sign was Vatrano and the rest of the guys we targeted we got.

I think we are an attractive team to UFAs when we are winning and guess what, we are winning.

 

[WTG]

When looking at replacements for Boeser we might be better off targeting a player on a $5 million deal that can't replace all of the missing offence, and hope that Lekkerimaki can make up the difference or that Hoglander has even more growth to his game than we've already seen. We're going to remain a team that runs through Pettersson, Miller, and Hughes so it might be that our cap structure works best if we target cheaper wingers that have flaws we can live with rather than running a premium top-6 forward group, top 3-D, and then cheap out on our depth.

There's also one other route to keeping Boeser, but folks might not like it, we could extend him at market rate and accept that we'll need to pay to move him once his game falls off. If management sees us as having a short window of contention before we need to rebuild they may want to consider this route, if they see it as being longer, this becomes less attractive.

How much are you willing to spend to get a player worth 5 million that can replace Boeser? It's not going to be cheap. Lekkermaki hasn't even played a single game for the Canucks, and we have no idea how long he is going to take to adjust to play top-end minutes. Lekkermaki could be 2-3 years to fill Boeser's shoes for all we know. Or he could just bust out.

People are talking about Boeser like he is some kind of ancient being almost. The guy turned twenty-seven 18 days ago.

With Boeser it's mostly about the term of his next contract, and a little about the AAV. If he is willing to sign like 1 x $6m or 2 x $6.5m, sure get it done. The problem is if he wants 6+ years term and like $7+m AAV, do you want to be paying him that much at age 33+ as he slow down even more and struggling to keep up with the forecheck/backcheck? With JTM locked in until his mid to late 30s as well, how many (potentially) inefficient contracts do you want to carry. Or how many assets you want to throw away as sweetener to dump him later on?

I think one reason Tampa and Boston are able to sustain success for so long is because they are able to cut loose players as they decline and/or as they demand more money than they are worth going forward. You probably think the Bruins were nuts trading a prime age power forward in Lucic, but it turned out to be a great movie. They got valuable assets in return and avoided signing him to one of the worse contract in the league. They also let Eriksson go as well after a 30+ goal season. They used the cap efficiently and replaced those guys, and continue to contend. Imagine had they signed those guys for a combine $13m over 7 yrs like they ended up though, that would slam shut their contention window. Same decision here with Boeser imo.

Why would Boeser sign for less of the % cap than he did before when he is a better player now than he was when he signed this contract? I think you'd easily sign Boeser to a 6-year contract at 7.5m.

How many wingers have been glued to an 85 point (and counting) center all season on even strength and the powerplay? (Boeser has 20 fewer points than Miller btw)

The smart long-term play would be to sell high on him this off-season.

Boeser has 8 less EVP points than Miller and 1 less EVG the power play he gets less points because of the role he plays on the power play.